Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 22, issue 5
Articles | Volume 22, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2953-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2953-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 5
Research article
 | 
18 May 2018
Research article |  | 18 May 2018

The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers

Kean Foster, Cintia Bertacchi Uvo, and Jonas Olsson

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Short summary
Hydropower makes up nearly half of Sweden's electrical energy production. Careful reservoir management is required for optimal production throughout the year and accurate seasonal forecasts are essential for this. In this work we develop a seasonal forecast prototype and evaluate its ability to predict spring flood volumes, a critical variable, in northern Sweden. We show that the prototype is better than the operational system on average 65 % of the time and reduces the volume error by ~ 6 %.
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Special issue
Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting