Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3687-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3687-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Jul 2017
Research article |
| 20 Jul 2017
Real-time updating of the flood frequency distribution through data assimilation
Fluvial dynamics and hydrology research group, Andalusian Institute of
Earth System Research, University of Córdoba, Cordoba, 14071, Spain
Alberto Montanari
Department DICAM, University of Bologna, Bologna, 40136, Italy
María-José Polo
Fluvial dynamics and hydrology research group, Andalusian Institute of
Earth System Research, University of Córdoba, Cordoba, 14071, Spain
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The Global Surface Water Explorer (GSWE) was combined with bathymetric and historical meteorological data to quantify water balance during the period 1984–2020 in the Primera de Palos freshwater lagoon (Southwest Spain). The results showed that the natural hydrological regime of the lagoon was modified from 1995 by water inputs from irrigation returns. Thanks to a water balance approach, these irrigation returns were quantified as the closure term of the water balance.
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This work presents the reconstruction of 19 years of daily, monthly, and annual global radiation maps in Sierra Nevada (Spain) derived using daily historical records from weather stations in the area and a modeling scheme that captures the topographic effects that constitute the main sources of the spatial and temporal variability of solar radiation. The generated datasets are valuable in different fields, such as hydrology, ecology, or energy production systems downstream.
Theano Iliopoulou, Cristina Aguilar, Berit Arheimer, María Bermúdez, Nejc Bezak, Andrea Ficchì, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Juraj Parajka, María José Polo, Guillaume Thirel, and Alberto Montanari
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We investigate the seasonal memory properties of a large sample of European rivers in terms of high and low flows. We compute seasonal correlations between peak and low flows and average flows in the previous seasons and explore the links with various physiographic and hydro-climatic catchment descriptors. Our findings suggest that there is a traceable physical basis for river memory which in turn can be employed to reduce uncertainty and improve probabilistic predictions of floods and droughts.
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Regulation by reservoirs affects both the freshwater regime and the sediment delivery downstream. Spain is one the countries with more water storage capacity by reservoirs in the world. The spatial redistribution of the seasonal and annual water storage in reservoirs mainly for irrigation and urban supply has resulted in significant environmental impacts downstream. This work shows these effects in the Guadalquivir and the Ebro River basins, two of the largest regulated areas in Spain.
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J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
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M. Egüen, M. J. Polo, Z. Gulliver, E. Contreras, C. Aguilar, and M. A. Losada
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M. J. Pérez-Palazón, R. Pimentel, J. Herrero, C. Aguilar, J. M. Perales, and M. J. Polo
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S. Ceola, B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione, and T. Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2101–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2101-2015, 2015
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We present the outcomes of a collaborative hydrological experiment undertaken by five different international research groups in a virtual laboratory. Moving from the definition of accurate protocols, a rainfall-runoff model was independently applied by the research groups, which then engaged in a comparative discussion. The results revealed that sharing protocols and running the experiment within a controlled environment is fundamental for ensuring experiment repeatability and reproducibility.
I. Andrés-Doménech, R. García-Bartual, A. Montanari, and J. B. Marco
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 379–387, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-379-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-379-2015, 2015
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Does climate variability necessarily imply hydrological variability? This paper analyses the catchment filtering role by analytically deriving the annual maximum peak flow frequency distribution based on realistic hypotheses about the rainfall process and the rainfall-runoff transformation. Depending on changes in the annual number of rainfall events, the catchment filtering role is particularly significant. Results also largely depend on the return period considered.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
G. Blöschl, A. Bárdossy, D. Koutsoyiannis, Z. W. Kundzewicz, I. Littlewood, A. Montanari, and H. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2433–2435, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2433-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2433-2014, 2014
H. V. Gupta, C. Perrin, G. Blöschl, A. Montanari, R. Kumar, M. Clark, and V. Andréassian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 463–477, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-463-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-463-2014, 2014
S. E. Thompson, M. Sivapalan, C. J. Harman, V. Srinivasan, M. R. Hipsey, P. Reed, A. Montanari, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5013–5039, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5013-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5013-2013, 2013
E. Baratti, A. Montanari, A. Castellarin, J. L. Salinas, A. Viglione, and A. Bezzi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4651–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4651-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4651-2012, 2012
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1173–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1173-2024, 2024
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Engineering structures known as check dams are built with the intention of managing streams. The effectiveness of such structures can be expressed by quantifying the reduction of the sediment flux after their implementation. In this contribution, we estimate and compare the volumes of sediment transported in a mountain stream for engineered and non-engineered conditions. We found that without check dams the mean sediment flux would be ca. 10 times larger in comparison with the current situation.
Zach Perzan, Gordon Osterman, and Kate Maher
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 969–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-969-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-969-2023, 2023
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In this study, we simulate flood managed aquifer recharge – the process of intentionally inundating land to replenish depleted aquifers – at a site imaged with geophysical equipment. Results show that layers of clay and silt trap recharge water above the water table, where it is inaccessible to both plants and groundwater wells. Sensitivity analyses also identify the main sources of uncertainty when simulating managed aquifer recharge, helping to improve future forecasts of site performance.
Zhiwei Yue, Xiangxiang Ji, La Zhuo, Wei Wang, Zhibin Li, and Pute Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4637–4656, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4637-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4637-2022, 2022
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Facing the increasing challenge of sustainable crop supply with limited water resources due to climate change, large-scale responses in the water footprint (WF) and WF benchmarks of crop production remain unclear. Here, we quantify the effects of future climate change scenarios on the WF and WF benchmarks of maize and wheat in time and space in China. Differences in crop growth between rain-fed and irrigated farms and among furrow-, sprinkler-, and micro-irrigated regimes are identified.
Qifen Yuan, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Stein Beldring, Wai Kwok Wong, and Chong-Yu Xu
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Rasmus Bødker Madsen, Hyojin Kim, Anders Juhl Kallesøe, Peter B. E. Sandersen, Troels Norvin Vilhelmsen, Thomas Mejer Hansen, Anders Vest Christiansen, Ingelise Møller, and Birgitte Hansen
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The protection of subsurface aquifers from contamination is an ongoing environmental challenge. Some areas of the underground have a natural capacity for reducing contaminants. In this research these areas are mapped in 3D along with information about, e.g., sand and clay, which indicates whether contaminated water from the surface will travel through these areas. This mapping technique will be fundamental for more reliable risk assessment in water quality protection.
Jing Wei, Yongping Wei, Fuqiang Tian, Natalie Nott, Claire de Wit, Liying Guo, and You Lu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1603–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1603-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1603-2021, 2021
Richard Arsenault and Pascal Côté
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2735–2750, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2735-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2735-2019, 2019
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Hydrological forecasting allows hydropower system operators to make the most efficient use of the available water as possible. Accordingly, hydrologists have been aiming at improving the quality of these forecasts. This work looks at the impacts of improving systematic errors in a forecasting scheme on the hydropower generation using a few decision-aiding tools that are used operationally by hydropower utilities. We find that the impacts differ according to the hydropower system characteristics.
Lanying Zhang, George Kuczera, Anthony S. Kiem, and Garry Willgoose
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6399–6414, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6399-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6399-2018, 2018
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Analyses of run lengths of Pacific decadal variability (PDV) suggest that there is no significant difference between run lengths in positive and negative phases of PDV and that it is more likely than not that the PDV run length has been non-stationary in the past millennium. This raises concerns about whether variability seen in the instrumental record (the last ~100 years), or even in the shorter 300–400 year paleoclimate reconstructions, is representative of the full range of variability.
William H. Farmer, Thomas M. Over, and Julie E. Kiang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5741–5758, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5741-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5741-2018, 2018
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This work observes that the result of streamflow simulation is often biased, especially with regards to extreme events, and proposes a novel technique to reduce this bias. By using parallel simulations of relative streamflow timing (sequencing) and the distribution of streamflow (magnitude), severe biases can be mitigated. Reducing this bias allows for improved utility of streamflow simulation for water resources management.
Arun Ravindranath, Naresh Devineni, Upmanu Lall, and Paulina Concha Larrauri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5125–5141, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5125-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5125-2018, 2018
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We present a framework for forecasting water storage requirements in the agricultural sector and an application of this framework to water risk assessment in India. Our framework involves defining a crop-specific water stress index and applying a particular statistical forecasting model to predict seasonal water stress for the crop of interest. The application focused on forecasting crop water stress for potatoes grown during the monsoon season in the Satara district of Maharashtra.
Adrian A. S. Barfod, Ingelise Møller, Anders V. Christiansen, Anne-Sophie Høyer, Júlio Hoffimann, Julien Straubhaar, and Jef Caers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3351–3373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3351-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3351-2018, 2018
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Three-dimensional geological models are important to securing and managing groundwater. Such models describe the geological architecture, which is used for modeling the flow of groundwater. Common geological modeling approaches result in one model, which does not quantify the architectural uncertainty of the geology.
We present a comparison of three different state-of-the-art stochastic multiple-point statistical methods for quantifying the geological uncertainty using real-world datasets.
Paula Rodríguez-Escales, Arnau Canelles, Xavier Sanchez-Vila, Albert Folch, Daniel Kurtzman, Rudy Rossetto, Enrique Fernández-Escalante, João-Paulo Lobo-Ferreira, Manuel Sapiano, Jon San-Sebastián, and Christoph Schüth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3213–3227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3213-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3213-2018, 2018
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In this work, we have developed a methodology to evaluate the failure risk of managed aquifer recharge, and we have applied it to six different facilities located in the Mediterranean Basin. The methodology was based on the development of a probabilistic risk assessment based on fault trees. We evaluated both technical and non-technical issues, the latter being more responsible for failure risk.
Minh Tu Pham, Hilde Vernieuwe, Bernard De Baets, and Niko E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1263–1283, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1263-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1263-2018, 2018
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In this paper, stochastically generated rainfall and corresponding evapotranspiration time series, generated by means of vine copulas, are used to force a simple conceptual hydrological model. The results obtained are comparable to the modelled discharge using observed forcing data. Yet, uncertainties in the modelled discharge increase with an increasing number of stochastically generated time series used. Still, the developed model has great potential for hydrological impact analysis.
Veit Blauhut, Kerstin Stahl, James Howard Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Lucia De Stefano, and Jürgen Vogt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2779–2800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2779-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2779-2016, 2016
Claus Davidsen, Suxia Liu, Xingguo Mo, Dan Rosbjerg, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 771–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-771-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-771-2016, 2016
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In northern China, rivers run dry and groundwater tables drop, causing economic losses for all water use sectors. We present a groundwater-surface water allocation decision support tool for cost-effective long-term recovery of an overpumped aquifer. The tool is demonstrated for a part of the North China Plain and can support the implementation of the recent China No. 1 Document in a rational and economically efficient way.
H. Macian-Sorribes, M. Pulido-Velazquez, and A. Tilmant
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3925–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3925-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3925-2015, 2015
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One of the most promising alternatives to improve the efficiency in water usage is the implementation of scarcity-based pricing policies based on the opportunity cost of water at the basin scale. Time series of the marginal value of water at selected locations (reservoirs) are obtained using a stochastic hydro-economic model and then post-processed to define step water pricing policies.
C. Dong, Q. Tan, G.-H. Huang, and Y.-P. Cai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1793–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1793-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1793-2014, 2014
F. Lombardo, E. Volpi, D. Koutsoyiannis, and S. M. Papalexiou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 243–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-243-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-243-2014, 2014
B. M. C. Fischer, M. L. Mul, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2161–2170, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2161-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2161-2013, 2013
J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, E. Morán-Tejeda, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, and J. I. López-Moreno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 119–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-119-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-119-2013, 2013
E. Baratti, A. Montanari, A. Castellarin, J. L. Salinas, A. Viglione, and A. Bezzi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4651–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4651-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4651-2012, 2012
J. E. Bremer and T. Harter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2453–2467, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2453-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2453-2012, 2012
B. Khalil and J. Adamowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2253–2266, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2253-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2253-2012, 2012
W. J. Vanhaute, S. Vandenberghe, K. Scheerlinck, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 873–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-873-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-873-2012, 2012
H. Shang, J. Yan, M. Gebremichael, and S. M. Ayalew
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1937–1944, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1937-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1937-2011, 2011
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Short summary
Assuming that floods are driven by both short- (meteorological forcing) and long-term perturbations (higher-than-usual moisture), we propose a technique for updating a season in advance the flood frequency distribution. Its application in the Po and Danube rivers helped to reduce the uncertainty in the estimation of floods and thus constitutes a promising tool for real-time management of flood risk mitigation. This study is the result of the stay of the first author at the University of Bologna.
Assuming that floods are driven by both short- (meteorological forcing) and long-term...
