Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 669–683, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-669-2016
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 669–683, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-669-2016

Research article 11 Feb 2016

Research article | 11 Feb 2016

Comparing statistical and process-based flow duration curve models in ungauged basins and changing rain regimes

M. F. Müller and S. E. Thompson

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We compare a stochastic (process-based) and statistical (data-based) method to predict flow duration curves in ungauged basins, under stationary and non-stationary conditions, and using Nepal as a case study. Both methods worked well in stationary conditions, with performances driven by the main source of runoff heterogeneity (climate vs. recession). The stochastic model worked better under change, and the performance of the statistical model was determined by the resilience of the flow regime.