Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
Research article 11 Feb 2016
Research article | 11 Feb 2016
Comparing statistical and process-based flow duration curve models in ungauged basins and changing rain regimes
M. F. Müller and S. E. Thompson
No articles found.
Gopal Penny, Veena Srinivasan, Iryna Dronova, Sharachchandra Lele, and Sally Thompson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 595–610,Short summary
Water resources in the Arkavathy watershed in southern India are changing due to human modification of the landscape, including changing agricultural practices and urbanization. We analyze surface water resources in man-made lakes in satellite imagery over a period of 4 decades and find drying in the northern part of the watershed (characterized by heavy agriculture) and wetting downstream of urban areas. Drying in the watershed is associated with groundwater-irrigated agriculture.
Veena Srinivasan, Gopal Penny, Sharachchandra Lele, Bejoy K. Thomas, and Sally Thompson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript has not been submittedShort summary
This case study of the data-scarce, upper Arkavathy watershed, near the city of Bengaluru in southern India, attempts to systematically explain the observed disappearance of surface and groundwater in recent decades using a multi-scale model. The results indicate that the disappearance can only be explained by including human drivers – both social feedbacks to changes in water availability and external drivers such as technology change and urbanization.
David N. Dralle, Nathaniel J. Karst, Kyriakos Charalampous, Andrew Veenstra, and Sally E. Thompson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 65–81,Short summary
The streamflow recession is the period following rainfall during which flow declines. This paper examines a common method of recession analysis and identifies sensitivity of the technique's results to necessary, yet subjective, methodological choices. The results have implications for hydrology, sediment and solute transport, and geomorphology, as well as for testing numerous hydrologic theories which predict the mathematical form of the recession.
T. J. Troy, M. Konar, V. Srinivasan, and S. Thompson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3667–3679,
M. F. Müller and S. E. Thompson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2925–2942,Short summary
We introduce TopREML as a method to predict runoff signatures in ungauged basins using linear mixed models with spatially correlated random effects. The nested nature of streamflow networks is accounted for by allowing for stronger correlations between flow-connected basins. The restricted maximum likelihood framework provides best linear unbiased predictions of both the predicted flow variable and its uncertainty as shown in Monte Carlo and cross-validation analyses in Nepal and Austria.
V. Srinivasan, S. Thompson, K. Madhyastha, G. Penny, K. Jeremiah, and S. Lele
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1905–1917,Short summary
The paper asks why the Arkavathy River in southern India is drying. The study results indicate that anthropogenic drivers like groundwater pumping, eucalyptus plantations and channel fragmentation are much more likely to have caused the decline than changing climate. The multiple-hypothesis approach presents a systematic way of quantifying the relative contributions of different drivers, contributing to the policy debate and prioritizing new scientific research.
S. E. Thompson, M. Sivapalan, C. J. Harman, V. Srinivasan, M. R. Hipsey, P. Reed, A. Montanari, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5013–5039,
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Annalina Lombardi, Valentina Colaiuda, Marco Verdecchia, and Barbara Tomassetti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1969–1992,Short summary
The paper presents a modelling approach for the assessment of extremes in the hydrological cycle at a multi-catchment scale. It describes two new hydrological stress indices, innovative instruments that could be used by Civil Protection operators, for flood mapping in early warning systems. The main advantage in using the proposed indices is the possibility of displaying hydrological-stress information over any geographical domain.
Santosh Nepal, Saurav Pradhananga, Narayan Kumar Shrestha, Sven Kralisch, Jayandra P. Shrestha, and Manfred Fink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1761–1783,Short summary
This paper examines soil moisture drought in the central Himalayan region by applying a process-based hydrological model. Our results suggest that both the occurrence and severity of droughts have increased over the last 3 decades, especially in the winter and pre-monsoon seasons. The insights provided into the frequency, spatial coverage, and severity of the drought conditions can provide valuable inputs towards improved management of water resources and greater agricultural productivity.
Judith Eeckman, Hélène Roux, Audrey Douinot, Bertrand Bonan, and Clément Albergel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1425–1446,Short summary
The risk of flash flood is of growing importance for populations, particularly in the Mediterranean area in the context of a changing climate. The representation of soil processes in models is a key factor for flash flood simulation. The importance of the various methods for soil moisture estimation are highlighted in this work. Local measurements from the field as well as data derived from satellite imagery can be used to assess the performance of model outputs.
Lieke Anna Melsen and Björn Guse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1307–1332,Short summary
Certain hydrological processes become more or less relevant when the climate changes. This should also be visible in the models that are used for long-term predictions of river flow as a consequence of climate change. We investigated this using three different models. The change in relevance should be reflected in how the parameters of the models are determined. In the different models, different processes become more relevant in the future: they disagree with each other.
Martin Le Mesnil, Roger Moussa, Jean-Baptiste Charlier, and Yvan Caballero
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1259–1282,Short summary
We present an innovative approach consisting of the statistical analysis and comparison of 15 hydrological descriptors, characterizing catchment response to rainfall events. The distribution of these descriptors is analysed according to the occurrence of karst areas inside 108 catchments. It shows that karst impacts on storm events mainly result in river losses and that interbasin groundwater flows can represent a significant part of the catchment water budget ah the event timescale.
Claudia Voigt, Daniel Herwartz, Cristina Dorador, and Michael Staubwasser
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1211–1228,Short summary
Evaporation trends in the stable isotope composition (18O/16O, 17O/16O, 2H/1H) of throughflow ponds in a hydrologically complex and seasonally dynamic lake system can be reliably predicted by the classic Craig–Gordon isotope evaporation model. We demonstrate that the novel 17O-excess parameter is capable of resolving different types of evaporation with and without recharge and of identifying mixing processes that cannot be resolved using the classic δ2H–δ18O system alone.
Zun Yin, Catherine Ottlé, Philippe Ciais, Feng Zhou, Xuhui Wang, Polcher Jan, Patrice Dumas, Shushi Peng, Laurent Li, Xudong Zhou, Yan Bo, Yi Xi, and Shilong Piao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1133–1150,Short summary
We improved the irrigation module in a land surface model ORCHIDEE and developed a dam operation model with the aim to investigate how irrigation and dams affect the streamflow fluctuations of the Yellow River. Results show that irrigation mainly reduces the annual river flow. The dam operation, however, mainly affects streamflow variation. By considering two generic operation rules, flood control and base flow guarantee, our dam model can sustainably improve the simulation accuracy.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Guillaume Thirel, Tanja de Boer-Euser, Joost Buitink, Claudia C. Brauer, Jan De Niel, Benjamin J. Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Benjamin Grelier, Lieke A. Melsen, Sotirios Moustakas, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Albrecht H. Weerts, Patrick Willems, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1069–1095,Short summary
We quantify the differences in internal states and fluxes of 12 process-based models with similar streamflow performance and assess their plausibility using remotely sensed estimates of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. The dissimilarities in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Therefore, we invite modelers to evaluate their models using multiple variables and to rely on multi-model studies.
Petra Hulsman, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 957–982,Short summary
Satellite observations have increasingly been used for model calibration, while model structural developments largely rely on discharge data. For large river basins, this often results in poor representations of system internal processes. This study explores the combined use of satellite-based evaporation and total water storage data for model structural improvement and spatial–temporal model calibration for a large, semi-arid and data-scarce river system.
Yuan Gao, Lili Yao, Ni-Bin Chang, and Dingbao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 945–956,Short summary
Mean annual runoff prediction is of great interest but still poses a challenge in ungauged basins. The purpose of this study is to diagnose the data requirement for predicting mean annual runoff in ungauged basins based on a water balance model, in which the effects of climate variability are explicitly represented. The performance of predicting mean annual runoff can be improved by employing better estimation of soil water storage capacity including the effects of soil, topography, and bedrock.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 851–866,Short summary
Inspired by a quotation from Howard Cook in 1946, this paper traces the evolution of the infiltration theory of runoff from the work of Robert Horton and LeRoy Sherman in the 1930s to the early digital computer models of the 1970s and 1980s. Reconsideration of the perceptual model for many catchments, partly as a result of the greater appreciation of the contribution of subsurface flows to the hydrograph indicated by tracer studies, suggests a reconsideration of hydrological nomenclature.
Xiaojing Zhang and Pan Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 711–733,Short summary
Rainfall–runoff models are useful tools for streamflow simulation. However, efforts are needed to investigate how their parameters vary in response to climate changes and human activities. Thus, this study proposes a new method for estimating time-varying parameters, by considering both simulation accuracy and parameter continuity. The results show the proposed method is effective for identifying temporal variations of parameters and can simultaneously provide good streamflow simulation.
Keith J. Beven, Mike J. Kirkby, Jim E. Freer, and Rob Lamb
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 527–549,Short summary
The theory that forms the basis of TOPMODEL was first outlined by Mike Kirkby some 45 years ago. This paper recalls some of the early developments: the rejection of the first journal paper, the early days of digital terrain analysis, model calibration and validation, the various criticisms of the simplifying assumptions, and the relaxation of those assumptions in the dynamic forms of TOPMODEL, and it considers what we might do now with the benefit of hindsight.
Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Juan Pablo Boisier, René Garreaud, Jan Seibert, and Marc Vis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–446,Short summary
The megadrought experienced in Chile (2010–2020) has led to larger than expected water deficits. By analysing 106 basins with snow-/rainfall regimes, we relate such intensification with the hydrological memory of the basins, explained by snow and groundwater. Snow-dominated basins have larger memory and thus accumulate the effect of persistent precipitation deficits more strongly than pluvial basins. This notably affects central Chile, a water-limited region where most of the population lives.
Nicolas Björn Rodriguez, Laurent Pfister, Erwin Zehe, and Julian Klaus
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 401–428,Short summary
Different parts of water have often been used as tracers to determine the age of water in streams. The stable tracers, such as deuterium, are thought to be unable to reveal old water compared to the radioactive tracer called tritium. We used both tracers, measured in precipitation and in a stream in Luxembourg, to show that this is not necessarily true. It is, in fact, advantageous to use the two tracers together, and we recommend systematically using tritium in future studies.
Ralf Loritz, Markus Hrachowitz, Malte Neuper, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–167,Short summary
This study investigates the role and value of distributed rainfall in the runoff generation of a mesoscale catchment. We compare the performance of different hydrological models at different periods and show that a distributed model driven by distributed rainfall yields improved performances only during certain periods. We then step beyond this finding and develop a spatially adaptive model that is capable of dynamically adjusting its spatial model structure in time.
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew W. Wood, Oldrich Rakovec, Naoki Mizukami, Wouter J. M. Knoben, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 105–119,Short summary
Assessments of current, local, and regional flood hazards and their future changes often involve the use of hydrologic models. A reliable model ideally reproduces both local flood characteristics and regional aspects of flooding. In this paper we investigate how such characteristics are represented by hydrologic models. Our results show that both the modeling of local and regional flood characteristics are challenging, especially under changing climate conditions.
Shervan Gharari, Martyn P. Clark, Naoki Mizukami, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Jefferson S. Wong, and Alain Pietroniro
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5953–5971,Short summary
This work explores the trade-off between the accuracy of the representation of geospatial data, such as land cover, soil type, and elevation zones, in a land (surface) model and its performance in the context of modeling. We used a vector-based setup instead of the commonly used grid-based setup to identify this trade-off. We also assessed the often neglected parameter uncertainty and its impact on the land model simulations.
Ganggang Zuo, Jungang Luo, Ni Wang, Yani Lian, and Xinxin He
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5491–5518,Short summary
A two-stage variational mode decomposition and support vector regression is designed to reduce the influence of boundary effects without removing or correcting boundary-affected decompositions. The proposed model significantly reduces the boundary effect consequences, saves modeling time and computation resources, barely overfits the calibration samples, and forecasts monthly runoff reasonably well compared to the benchmark models.
Erwin Rottler, Axel Bronstert, Gerd Bürger, and Oldrich Rakovec
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Nils Hinrich Kaplan, Theresa Blume, and Markus Weiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5453–5472,Short summary
In recent decades the demand for detailed information of spatial and temporal dynamics of the stream network has grown in the fields of eco-hydrology and extreme flow prediction. We use temporal streamflow intermittency data obtained at various sites using innovative sensing technology as well as spatial predictors to predict and map probabilities of streamflow intermittency. This approach has the potential to provide intermittency maps for hydrological modelling and management practices.
Martin Gauch, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Grey Nearing, Jimmy Lin, and Sepp Hochreiter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for HESSShort summary
We present multi-timescale Long Short-Term Memory (MTS-LSTM), a machine learning approach that predicts discharge at multiple timescales within one model. MTS-LSTM is significantly more accurate than the US National Water Model and computationally more efficient than an individual LSTM model per timescale. Further, MTS-LSTM can process different input variables at different timescales, which is important as the lead time of meteorological forecasts often depends on their temporal resolution.
Mattia Neri, Juraj Parajka, and Elena Toth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5149–5171,Short summary
One of the most informative ways to gain information on ungauged river sections is through the implementation of a rainfall-runoff model, exploiting the information collected in gauged catchments in the study area. This study analyses how the performances of different model regionalisation approaches are influenced by the informative content of the available regional data set, in order to identify the methods that are more suitable for the data availability in the region.
Stefania Camici, Christian Massari, Luca Ciabatta, Ivan Marchesini, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4869–4885,Short summary
The paper performs the most comprehensive European-scale evaluation to date of satellite rainfall products for river flow prediction. In doing so, how errors transfer from satellite-based rainfall products into flood simulation is investigated in depth and, for the first time, quantitative guidelines on the use of these products for hydrological applications are provided. This result can represent a keystone in the use of satellite rainfall products, especially in data-scarce regions.
Renaud Hostache, Dominik Rains, Kaniska Mallick, Marco Chini, Ramona Pelich, Hans Lievens, Fabrizio Fenicia, Giovanni Corato, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Patrick Matgen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4793–4812,Short summary
Our objective is to investigate how satellite microwave sensors, particularly Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), may help to reduce errors and uncertainties in soil moisture simulations with a large-scale conceptual hydro-meteorological model. We assimilated a long time series of SMOS observations into a hydro-meteorological model and showed that this helps to improve model predictions. This work therefore contributes to the development of faster and more accurate drought prediction tools.
Hui Sheng, Xiaomei Xu, Jian Hua Gao, Albert J. Kettner, Yong Shi, Chengfeng Xue, Ya Ping Wang, and Shu Gao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4743–4761,Short summary
This paper investigates the variability of past flooding by applying a numerical model coupled with historical records of regional climate and anthropogenic activity under the deficiency of observations. We conclude that trends in flooding frequency were predominantly modulated by the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events, which highlights the need for the implementation of effective river engineering measures to counteract increasing flood risks as a result of the future.
Marc Girons Lopez, Marc J. P. Vis, Michal Jenicek, Nena Griessinger, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4441–4461,Short summary
Snow processes are crucial for runoff in mountainous areas, but their complexity makes water management difficult. Temperature models are widely used as they are simple and do not require much data, but not much thought is usually given to which model to use, which may lead to bad predictions. We studied the impact of many model alternatives and found that a more complex model does not necessarily perform better. Finding which processes are most important in each area is a much better strategy.
Uwe Ehret, Rik van Pruijssen, Marina Bortoli, Ralf Loritz, Elnaz Azmi, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4389–4411,Short summary
In this paper we propose adaptive clustering as a new method for reducing the computational efforts of distributed modelling. It consists of identifying similar-acting model elements during the runtime, clustering them, running the model for just a few representatives per cluster, and mapping their results to the remaining model elements in the cluster. With the example of a hydrological model, we show that this saves considerable computation time, while largely maintaining the output quality.
Francesco Avanzi, Joseph Rungee, Tessa Maurer, Roger Bales, Qin Ma, Steven Glaser, and Martha Conklin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4317–4337,Short summary
Multi-year droughts in Mediterranean climates often see a lower fraction of precipitation allocated to runoff compared to non-drought years. By comparing observed water-balance components with simulations by a hydrologic model (PRMS), we reinterpret these shifts as a hysteretic response of the water budget to climate elasticity of evapotranspiration. Our results point to a general improvement in hydrologic predictions across drought and recovery cycles by including this mechanism.
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew J. Newman, Andrew W. Wood, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3951–3966,Short summary
Streamflow seasonality is changing and expected to further change under the influence of climate change. We here assess how annual streamflow hydrographs will change in future by using a newly developed classification scheme. Our comparison of future with current annual hydrograph classes shows that robust changes are expected only for currently melt-influenced regions in the Rocky Mountains. These upstream changes may require the adaptation of management strategies in downstream regions.
Kirsti Hakala, Nans Addor, Thibault Gobbe, Johann Ruffieux, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3815–3833,Short summary
Under a changing climate, reliable information on future hydrological conditions is necessary to inform water resource management. Here, we collaborated with a hydropower company that selected streamflow and energy demand indices. Using these indices, we identified stakeholder needs and used this to tailor the production of our climate change impact projections. We show that opportunities and risks for a hydropower company depend on a range of factors beyond those covered by traditional studies.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3835–3850,Short summary
During the Pliocene, the Qaidam Basin on the Tibetan Plateau contained a mega-lake system. During the Pleistocene, it disappeared almost completely. Today, hyperarid climates prevail in the low-altitude parts of the basin. This study reveals that today's mean water balance of the Qaidam Basin is nearly zero and is positive during warmer, less dry years. The results explain how the mega-lake system could survive for a long time in the past and could eventually be restored in the future.
Jianzhuang Pang, Huilan Zhang, Quanxi Xu, Yujie Wang, Yunqi Wang, Ouyang Zhang, and Jiaxin Hao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3603–3626,Short summary
As frequently used precipitation products, Gauge, CPC, and CHIRPS presented different behaviors in describing precipitation on different spatial and temporal scales, yet these dissimilarities could be concealed in hydrological modeling by parameter calibration and validation. Parameter adjustment in hydrologic modeling, however, would yield different water balance components and thus alter hydrologic mechanisms, demonstrating the complexity in physically describing natural hydrologic processes.
Stefano Manzoni, Giorgos Maneas, Anna Scaini, Basil E. Psiloglou, Georgia Destouni, and Steve W. Lyon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3557–3571,Short summary
A modeling tool is developed to assess the vulnerability of coastal wetlands to climatic and water management changes. Applied to the case study of the Gialova lagoon (Greece), this tool highlights the reliance of the lagoon functionality on scarce freshwater sources already under high demand from agriculture. Climatic changes will likely increase lagoon salinity, despite efforts to improve water management.
Doris Duethmann, Günter Blöschl, and Juraj Parajka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3493–3511,Short summary
We investigate why a conceptual hydrological model failed to correctly predict observed discharge changes in response to increasing precipitation and air temperature in 156 Austrian catchments. Simulations indicate that poor model performance is related to two problems, namely a model structure that neglects changes in vegetation dynamics and inhomogeneities in precipitation data caused by changes in stations density with time. Other hypotheses did not improve simulated discharge changes.
Fadji Z. Maina, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, and Pouya Vahmani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3451–3474,Short summary
Projecting the changes in water resources under a no-analog future climate requires integrated hydrologic models. However, these models are plagued by several sources of uncertainty. A hydrologic model was forced with various resolutions of meteorological forcing (0.5 to 40.5 km) to assess its sensitivity to these inputs. We show that most hydrologic variables reveal biases that are seasonally and spatially dependent, which can have serious implications for calibration and water management.
Petra Hulsman, Hessel C. Winsemius, Claire I. Michailovsky, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3331–3359,Short summary
In the absence of discharge data in ungauged basins, remotely sensed river water level data, i.e. altimetry, may provide valuable information to calibrate hydrological models. This study illustrated that for large rivers in data-scarce regions, river altimetry data from multiple locations combined with GRACE data have the potential to fill this gap when combined with estimates of the river geometry, thereby allowing a step towards more reliable hydrological modelling in data-scarce regions.
Leo T. Pham, Lifeng Luo, and Andrew O. Finley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for HESSShort summary
Model evaluation metrics suggest RF performs better in snowmelt-driven watersheds. Largest improvement in forecasts, compared to benchmark models, are found among rainfall-driven watersheds. RF performance deteriorates with increase in catchment slope and increase in soil sandiness. We note disagreement between two popular measures of RF variable importance and recommend jointly considering these measures with the physical processes under study.
Paolo Nasta, Carolina Allocca, Roberto Deidda, and Nunzio Romano
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3211–3227,Short summary
Rainfall seasonal anomalies in a Mediterranean climate are assessed by using two distinct approaches: a static approach based on the standardized precipitation index and a dynamic approach that identifies the rainy season by considering rainfall magnitude, timing, and duration. The impact of rainfall seasonality on catchment-scale water balance components is evaluated through scenario-based simulations of the Soil Water Assessment Tool in the upper Alento River catchment in southern Italy.
Julien Ackerer, Benjamin Jeannot, Frederick Delay, Sylvain Weill, Yann Lucas, Bertrand Fritz, Daniel Viville, and François Chabaux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3111–3133,
Olivier Champagne, M. Altaf Arain, Martin Leduc, Paulin Coulibaly, and Shawn McKenzie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3077–3096,Short summary
Using 50 members of one regional climate model and a processed-based hydrological model applied in four river basins in southern Ontario, this work focused on the winter streamflow projection uncertainties for the first half of 21st century. The results show a January–February increase of streamflow for the 50 projections due to early snowmelt and a rainfall increase. The streamflow projections are also modulated by the change of pressure patterns advecting different air masses over the region.
Robin Schwemmle, Dominic Demand, and Markus Weiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for HESSShort summary
Better understanding of the reasons why model performance is
poorrepresents a crucial part for meaningful model evaluation. We propose the novel Diagnostic Efficiency (DE) measure and diagnostic polar plots. The proposed evaluation approach provides a diagnostic tool for model developers and model users and facilitates interpretation of model performance.
Ingo Heidbüchel, Jie Yang, Andreas Musolff, Peter Troch, Ty Ferré, and Jan H. Fleckenstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2920,Short summary
With the help of a 3-D computer model we examined how long the water of different rain events stays inside small catchments before it is discharged and how the nature of this discharge is controlled by different catchment and climate properties. We found that one can only predict the discharge dynamics when taking into account a combination of catchment and climate properties (i.e., there was not one single most important predictor). Our results can help to manage water pollution events.
David Dziubanski, Kristie J. Franz, and William Gutowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2873–2894,Short summary
We describe a socio-hydrologic model that couples an agent-based model (ABM) of human decision-making with a hydrologic model. We establish this model for a typical agricultural watershed in Iowa, USA, and simulate the evolution of large discharge events over a 47-year period under changing land use. Using this modeling approach, relationships between seemingly unrelated variables such as crop markets or crop yields and local peak flow trends are quantified.
Xing Fang and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2731–2754,Short summary
High-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model near-surface outputs from control and future periods were bias-corrected by downscaling outputs with respect to meteorological stations in Marmot Creek Research Basin, Canadian Rocky Mountains. A hydrological model simulation driven by the bias-corrected outputs showed declined seasonal peak snowpack, shorter snow-cover duration, higher evapotranspiration, and increased streamflow discharge in Marmot Creek for the warmer and wetter future.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2609–2632,Short summary
Interpolation methods accounting for elevation dependency from scattered gauges result in inaccurate inputs for snow-hydrological models. Altitudinal gradients of temperature and precipitation can be successfully inferred using an inverse snow-hydrological modelling approach. This approach can significantly improve the simulation of snow cover and streamflow dynamics through more parsimonious parametrization.
Mostafa Tarek, François P. Brissette, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2527–2544,Short summary
The ERA5 reanalysis dataset is characterized by its high spatial (0.25) and temporal (hourly) resolutions and has therefore a large potential to drive environmental models in regions where the network of stations is deficient. ERA5 performance is evaluated on 3138 North American catchments. Results indicate that for hydrological modelling, ERA5 precipitation and temperature are just as good as observation all over North America, with the exception of the eastern half of the US.
Shengli Liao, Zhanwei Liu, Benxi Liu, Chuntian Cheng, Xinfeng Jin, and Zhipeng Zhao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2343–2363,Short summary
Inflow forecasting plays an essential role in reservoir management and operation. To improve the accuracy of multistep-ahead daily inflow forecasting, the paper develops a new hybrid inflow forecast framework using ERA-Interim data. We find that the framework significantly enhances the accuracy of inflow forecasting at lead times of 4–10 d compared with widely used and mature methods. This research provides a reference for operational inflow forecasting in remote regions.
Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari, Shahab Araghinejad, Mohammad J. Tourian, Kumars Ebrahimi, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1939–1956,Short summary
This paper uses a multi-objective approach for calibrating the WGHM model to determine the role of human water use and climate variations in the recent loss of water storage in Lake Urmia basin, Iran. We found that even without human water use Lake Urmia would not have recovered from the significant loss of lake water volume caused by the drought year 2008.
Brian Berkowitz and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1831–1858,Short summary
We present a
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We compare a stochastic (process-based) and statistical (data-based) method to predict flow duration curves in ungauged basins, under stationary and non-stationary conditions, and using Nepal as a case study. Both methods worked well in stationary conditions, with performances driven by the main source of runoff heterogeneity (climate vs. recession). The stochastic model worked better under change, and the performance of the statistical model was determined by the resilience of the flow regime.
We compare a stochastic (process-based) and statistical (data-based) method to predict flow...