Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4411-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4411-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Nov 2015
Research article |
| 02 Nov 2015
Impact of the Three Gorges Dam, the South–North Water Transfer Project and water abstractions on the duration and intensity of salt intrusions in the Yangtze River estuary
M. Webber
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Geography, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia
M. T. Li
State Key Laboratory for Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
J. Chen
State Key Laboratory for Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
B. Finlayson
School of Geography, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia
D. Chen
College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Z. Y. Chen
State Key Laboratory for Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
M. Wang
School of Geography, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia
J. Barnett
School of Geography, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia
Related subject area
Subject: Coasts and Estuaries | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Quantifying cascading uncertainty in compound flood modeling with linked process-based and machine learning models
Mangroves as nature-based mitigation for ENSO-driven compound flood risks in a large river delta
Forecasting estuarine salt intrusion in the Rhine–Meuse delta using an LSTM model
Coastal topography and hydrogeology control critical groundwater gradients and potential beach surface instability during storm surges
Effect of tides on river water behavior over the eastern shelf seas of China
Extreme precipitation events induce high fluxes of groundwater and associated nutrients to coastal ocean
Temporally resolved coastal hypoxia forecasting and uncertainty assessment via Bayesian mechanistic modeling
Assessing the dependence structure between oceanographic, fluvial, and pluvial flooding drivers along the United States coastline
Statistical modelling and climate variability of compound surge and precipitation events in a managed water system: a case study in the Netherlands
Estimating the probability of compound floods in estuarine regions
Accretion, retreat and transgression of coastal wetlands experiencing sea-level rise
Climate change overtakes coastal engineering as the dominant driver of hydrological change in a large shallow lagoon
Dynamic mechanism of an extremely severe saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang estuary in February 2014
A novel approach for the assessment of morphological evolution based on observed water levels in tide-dominated estuaries
Seasonal behaviour of tidal damping and residual water level slope in the Yangtze River estuary: identifying the critical position and river discharge for maximum tidal damping
Sediment budget analysis of the Guayas River using a process-based model
Multivariate statistical modelling of compound events via pair-copula constructions: analysis of floods in Ravenna (Italy)
Analytical and numerical study of the salinity intrusion in the Sebou river estuary (Morocco) – effect of the “Super Blood Moon” (total lunar eclipse) of 2015
Linking biogeochemistry to hydro-geometrical variability in tidal estuaries: a generic modeling approach
A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: a first step towards ecological modeling
Revised predictive equations for salt intrusion modelling in estuaries
Impact of the Hoa Binh dam (Vietnam) on water and sediment budgets in the Red River basin and delta
Large-scale suspended sediment transport and sediment deposition in the Mekong Delta
Hydrodynamic controls on oxygen dynamics in a riverine salt wedge estuary, the Yarra River estuary, Australia
Assessing hydrological effects of human interventions on coastal systems: numerical applications to the Venice Lagoon
Environmental flow assessments in estuaries based on an integrated multi-objective method
Modelling climate change effects on a Dutch coastal groundwater system using airborne electromagnetic measurements
An analytical solution for tidal propagation in the Yangtze Estuary, China
Understanding and managing the Westerschelde – synchronizing the physical system and the management system of a complex estuary
David F. Muñoz, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2531–2553, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2531-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2531-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Linking hydrodynamics with machine learning models for compound flood modeling enables a robust characterization of nonlinear interactions among the sources of uncertainty. Such an approach enables the quantification of cascading uncertainty and relative contributions to total uncertainty while also tracking their evolution during compound flooding. The proposed approach is a feasible alternative to conventional statistical approaches designed for uncertainty analyses.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Olivier Gourgue, Luis Elvin Dominguez-Granda, and Stijn Temmerman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1463–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The combination of extreme sea levels with increased river flow typically can lead to so-called compound floods. Often these are caused by storms (< 1 d), but climatic events such as El Niño could trigger compound floods over a period of months. We show that the combination of increased sea level and river discharge causes extreme water levels to amplify upstream. Mangrove forests, however, can act as a nature-based flood protection by lowering the extreme water levels coming from the sea.
Bas J. M. Wullems, Claudia C. Brauer, Fedor Baart, and Albrecht H. Weerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3823–3850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In deltas, saltwater sometimes intrudes far inland and causes problems with freshwater availability. We created a model to forecast salt concentrations at a critical location in the Rhine–Meuse delta in the Netherlands. It requires a rather small number of data to make a prediction and runs fast. It predicts the occurrence of salt concentration peaks well but underestimates the highest peaks. Its speed gives water managers more time to reduce the problems caused by salt intrusion.
Anner Paldor, Nina Stark, Matthew Florence, Britt Raubenheimer, Steve Elgar, Rachel Housego, Ryan S. Frederiks, and Holly A. Michael
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5987–6002, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5987-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5987-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean surges can impact the stability of beaches by changing the hydraulic regime. These surge-induced changes in the hydraulic regime have important implications for coastal engineering and for beach morphology. This work uses 3D computer simulations to study how these alterations vary in space and time. We find that certain areas along and across the beach are potentially more vulnerable than others and that previous assumptions regarding the most dangerous places may need to be revised.
Lei Lin, Hao Liu, Xiaomeng Huang, Qingjun Fu, and Xinyu Guo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5207–5225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5207-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5207-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system (climate) model is an important instrument for projecting the global water cycle and climate change, in which tides are commonly excluded due to the much small timescales compared to the climate. However, we found that tides significantly impact the river water transport pathways, transport timescales, and concentrations in shelf seas. Thus, the tidal effect should be carefully considered in earth system models to accurately project the global water and biogeochemical cycle.
Marc Diego-Feliu, Valentí Rodellas, Aaron Alorda-Kleinglass, Maarten Saaltink, Albert Folch, and Jordi Garcia-Orellana
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4619–4635, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4619-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4619-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Rainwater infiltrates aquifers and travels a long subsurface journey towards the ocean where it eventually enters below sea level. In its path towards the sea, water becomes enriched in many compounds that are naturally or artificially present within soils and sediments. We demonstrate that extreme rainfall events may significantly increase the inflow of water to the ocean, thereby increasing the supply of these compounds that are fundamental for the sustainability of coastal ecosystems.
Alexey Katin, Dario Del Giudice, and Daniel R. Obenour
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1131–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1131-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Low oxygen conditions (hypoxia) occur almost every summer in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Here, we present a new approach for forecasting hypoxia from June through September, leveraging a process-based model and an advanced statistical framework. We also show how using spring hydrometeorological information can improve forecast accuracy while reducing uncertainties. The proposed forecasting system shows the potential to support the management of threatened coastal ecosystems and fisheries.
Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Md Mamunur Rashid, Paula Camus, and Ivan D. Haigh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6203–6222, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse dependences between different flooding drivers around the USA coastline, where the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern and southwestern coasts are regions of high dependence between flooding drivers. Dependence is higher during the tropical season in the Gulf and at some locations on the East Coast but higher during the extratropical season on the West Coast. The analysis gives new insights on locations, driver combinations, and the time of the year when compound flooding is likely.
Víctor M. Santos, Mercè Casas-Prat, Benjamin Poschlod, Elisa Ragno, Bart van den Hurk, Zengchao Hao, Tímea Kalmár, Lianhua Zhu, and Husain Najafi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3595–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3595-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3595-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an application of multivariate statistical models to assess compound flooding events in a managed reservoir. Data (from a previous study) were obtained from a physical-based hydrological model driven by a regional climate model large ensemble, providing a time series expanding up to 800 years in length that ensures stable statistics. The length of the data set allows for a sensitivity assessment of the proposed statistical framework to natural climate variability.
Wenyan Wu, Seth Westra, and Michael Leonard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2821–2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2821-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2821-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Flood probability estimation is important for applications such as land use planning, reservoir operation, infrastructure design and safety assessments. However, it is a challenging task, especially in estuarine areas where floods are caused by both intense rainfall and storm surge. This study provides a review of approaches to flood probability estimation in these areas. Based on analysis of a real-world river system, guidance on method selection is provided.
Angelo Breda, Patricia M. Saco, Steven G. Sandi, Neil Saintilan, Gerardo Riccardi, and José F. Rodríguez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 769–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-769-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-769-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We study accretion, retreat and transgression of mangrove and saltmarsh wetlands affected by sea-level rise (SLR) using simulations on typical configurations with different levels of tidal obstruction. Interactions and feedbacks between flow, sediment deposition, vegetation migration and soil accretion result in wetlands not surviving the predicted high-emission scenario SLR, despite dramatic increases in sediment supply. Previous simplified models overpredict wetland resilience to SLR.
Peisheng Huang, Karl Hennig, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, and Matthew R. Hipsey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5673–5697, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5673-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our results conclude that the climate change in the past decades has a remarkable effect on the hydrology of a large shallow lagoon with the same magnitude as that caused by the opening of an artificial channel, and it also highlighted the complexity of their interactions. We suggested that the consideration of the projected drying trend is essential in designing management plans associated with planning for environmental water provision and setting water quality loading targets.
Jianrong Zhu, Xinyue Cheng, Linjiang Li, Hui Wu, Jinghua Gu, and Hanghang Lyu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5043–5056, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
An extremely severe saltwater intrusion event occurred in February 2014 in the Changjiang estuary and seriously influenced the water intake of the reservoir. For the event cause and for freshwater safety, the dynamic mechanism was studied with observed data and a numerical model. The results indicated that this event was caused by a persistent and strong northerly wind, which formed a horizontal estuarine circulation, surpassed seaward runoff and drove highly saline water into the estuary.
Huayang Cai, Ping Zhang, Erwan Garel, Pascal Matte, Shuai Hu, Feng Liu, and Qingshu Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1871-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1871-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the morphological changes in estuaries due to natural processes and human interventions is especially important with regard to sustainable water management and ecological impacts on the estuarine environment. In this contribution, we explore the morphological evolution in tide-dominated estuaries by means of a novel analytical approach using the observed water levels along the channel. The method could serve as a useful tool to understand the evolution of estuarine morphology.
Huayang Cai, Hubert H. G. Savenije, Erwan Garel, Xianyi Zhang, Leicheng Guo, Min Zhang, Feng Liu, and Qingshu Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2779–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2779-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2779-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Tide–river dynamics play an essential role in large-scale river deltas as they exert a tremendous impact on delta morphodynamics, salt intrusion and deltaic ecosystems. For the first time, we illustrate that there is a critical river discharge, beyond which tidal damping is reduced with increasing river discharge, and we explore the underlying mechanism using an analytical model. The results are useful for guiding sustainable water management and sediment transport in tidal rivers.
Pedro D. Barrera Crespo, Erik Mosselman, Alessio Giardino, Anke Becker, Willem Ottevanger, Mohamed Nabi, and Mijail Arias-Hidalgo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2763–2778, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2763-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2763-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Guayaquil, the commercial capital of Ecuador, is located along the Guayas River. The city is among the most vulnerable cities to future flooding ascribed to climate change. Fluvial sedimentation is seen as one of the factors contributing to flooding. This paper describes the dominant processes in the river and the effects of past interventions in the overall sediment budget. This is essential to plan and design effective mitigation measures to face the latent risk that threatens Guayaquil.
Emanuele Bevacqua, Douglas Maraun, Ingrid Hobæk Haff, Martin Widmann, and Mathieu Vrac
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a conceptual model to quantify the risk of compound events (CEs), i.e. extreme impacts to society which are driven by statistically dependent climatic variables. Based on this model we study compound floods, i.e. joint storm surge and high river level, in Ravenna (Italy). The model includes meteorological predictors which (1) provide insight into the physical processes underlying CEs, as well as into the temporal variability, and (2) allow us to statistically downscale CEs.
Soufiane Haddout, Mohammed Igouzal, and Abdellatif Maslouhi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3923–3945, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3923-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3923-2016, 2016
Chiara Volta, Goulven Gildas Laruelle, Sandra Arndt, and Pierre Regnier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 991–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-991-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-991-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A generic estuarine model is applied to three idealized tidal estuaries representing the main hydro-geometrical estuarine classes. The study provides insight into the estuarine biogeochemical dynamics, in particular the air-water CO2/sub> flux, as well as the potential response to future environmental changes and to uncertainties in model parameter values. We believe that our approach could help improving upscaling strategies to better integrate estuaries in regional/global biogeochemical studies.
F. M. Achete, M. van der Wegen, D. Roelvink, and B. Jaffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2837–2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2837-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2837-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) levels are important indicator for the ecology of estuaries. Observations of SSC are difficult to make, therefore we revert to coupled 2-D hydrodynamic-sediment process-based transport models to make predictions in time (seasonal and yearly) and space (meters to kilometers). This paper presents calibration/validation of SSC for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and translates SSC to turbidity in order to couple with ecology models.
J. I. A. Gisen, H. H. G. Savenije, and R. C. Nijzink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2791–2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2791-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2791-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We revised the predictive equations for two calibrated parameters in salt intrusion model (the Van der Burgh coefficient K and dispersion coefficient D) using an extended database of 89 salinity profiles including 8 newly conducted salinity measurements. The revised predictive equations consist of easily measured parameters such as the geometry of estuary, tide, friction and the Richardson number. These equations are useful in obtaining the first estimate of salinity distribution in an estuary.
V. D. Vinh, S. Ouillon, T. D. Thanh, and L. V. Chu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3987–4005, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3987-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3987-2014, 2014
N. V. Manh, N. V. Dung, N. N. Hung, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3033–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, 2014
L. C. Bruce, P. L. M. Cook, I. Teakle, and M. R. Hipsey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1397–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1397-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1397-2014, 2014
C. Ferrarin, M. Ghezzo, G. Umgiesser, D. Tagliapietra, E. Camatti, L. Zaggia, and A. Sarretta
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1733–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1733-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1733-2013, 2013
T. Sun, J. Xu, and Z. F. Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 751–760, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-751-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-751-2013, 2013
M. Faneca Sànchez, J. L. Gunnink, E. S. van Baaren, G. H. P. Oude Essink, B. Siemon, E. Auken, W. Elderhorst, and P. G. B. de Louw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4499–4516, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4499-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4499-2012, 2012
E. F. Zhang, H. H. G. Savenije, S. L. Chen, and X. H. Mao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3327–3339, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3327-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3327-2012, 2012
A. van Buuren, L. Gerrits, and G. R. Teisman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2243–2257, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2243-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2243-2010, 2010
Cited articles
An, Q., Wu, Y. Q., Taylor, S., and Zhao, B.: Influence of the Three Gorges Project on saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze River estuary, Environ. Geol., 56, 1679–1686, 2009.
Cai, F., Su, X. Z., Liu, J. H., Li, B., and Lei, G.: Coastal erosion in China under the condition of global climate change and measures for its prevention, Prog. Nat. Sci., 19, 415–426, 2009.
Chen, D., Webber, M., Finlayson, B., Barnett, J., Chen, Z. Y., and Wang, M.: Impact of water transfers from the lower Yangtze River on water security in Shanghai, Appl. Geogr., 45, 303–310, 2013.
Chen, X., Zong, Y., Zhang, E., Xu, J., and Li, S.: Human impacts on the Changjiang (Yangtze) River basin, China, with special reference to the impacts on the dry season water discharges into the sea, Geomorphology, 41, 111–123, 2001.
CNTV: Record intrusion of seawater affects 2 million residents of Shanghai, available at: http://english.cntv.cn/program/newsupdate/20140224/102934.shtml (last access: 28 October 2015), 2014.
Dai, Z. J., Chu, A., Stive, M., Zhang, X. L., and Yan, H.: Unusual salinity conditions in the Yangtze esuary in 2006: impacts of an extreme drought or of the Three Gorges Dam?, Ambio, 40, 496–505, 2011.
Finlayson, B. L., Barnett, J., Wei, T. Y., Webber, M., Li, M. T., Wang, M. Y., Chen, J., Xu, H., and Chen, Z. Y.: The drivers of risk to water security in Shanghai, Reg. Environ. Change, 13, 329–340, 2013.
Garson, G. D.: Generalized Linear Models/Generalized Estimating Equations, Statistical Publishing Associates, Asheboro, NC, USA, 2013.
Gong, W. P., Shen, J., and Jia, L. W.: Salt intrusion during the dry season in the Huangmaohai Estuary, Pearl River Delta, J. Marine Syst., 111–112, 235–252, 2013.
Gu, Y. and Yue, Q.: Analysis and prediction of saltwater intrusion in Chenhang water source region in Yangtze River estuary, Public Utilities, 18, 19–20, 2004.
Guo, S. L., Chen, J. H., Li, Y., Liu, P., and Li, T. Y.: Joint operation of the multi-reservoir system of the Three Gorges and the Qingjiang cascade reservoirs, Energies, 4, 1036–1050 2011.
Jiang, T., Kundzewicz, Z. W., and Su, B. D.: Changes in monthly precipitation and flood hazard in the Yangtze River basin, China Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1471–1481, 2008.
Kuang, C. P., Sun, B., and Liu, S. G.: Approach of moving boundary and its application in 3D tidal current simulation of Changjiang River estuary based on ECOMSED model, Acta Oceanol. Sin., 28, 78–85, 2009.
Li, C. A., Yin, H. F., and Yu, L. Z.: Silt transform characteristics and latent effect on fluvial system environment in Yangtze River, Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin , 9, 504–509, 2000 (in Chinese with English abstract).
Li, L., Zhu, J. R., and Wu, H.: Impacts of wind stress on saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze estuary, Science China – Earth Sciences , 55, 1178–1192, 2012.
Li, M. T., Chen, Z. Y., Finlayson, B., Wei, T., Chen, J., Wu, X., Xu, H., Webber, M., Barnett, J., and Wang, M.: Water diversion and sea-level rise: potential threats to freshwater supplies in the Changjiang River estuary, Estuar. Coast. Shelf S., 156, 52–60, 2014.
Liu, S., Zhong, G., Kuang, C., Sun, B, Gou, H., and Huang, W.: Effects of South-to-North Water Transfer Project on salinity intrusion in Yangtze estuary, Coastal Hazards , 2013, 119–128, https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784412664.012, 2013.
Savenije, H. H. G.: A one-dimensional model for salinity intrusion in alluvial estuaries, J. Hydrol., 85, 87–109, 1986.
Savenije, H. H. G.: Predictive model for salt intrusion in estuaries, J. Hydrol., 148, 203–218, 1993.
Shen, H. T., Mao, Z. C., and Zhu, J. R.: Saltwater Intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary, China Ocean Press, Beijing, 2003 (in Chinese with English summary).
Tao, H., Gemmer, M., Jiang, J. H., Lai, X. J., and Zhang, Z. X.: Assessment of CMIP3 climate models and projected changesof precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze River basin, China, Clim. Change, 111, 737–751, 2012.
Tong, C. F., Zheng, J. H., Zhang, C., and Guilbaud, C.: Salinity response to the runoff from Yangtze River basin at Qingcaosha reservoir area in Yangtze estuary, ASME 2010 29th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering, Shanghai, China, 6–11 June 2010, 4, 247–255, 2010.
Wang, Y. G., Huang, H. M., and Li, X.: Critical discharge at Datong for controlling operation of South-to-North Water Transfer Project in dry seasons, Water Science and Engineering, 1, 47–58, 2008.
Xue, P. C., Chen, P., Ding, R. C., Beardsley, H., Lin, H., Ge, J., and Kong, Y.: Saltwater intrusion into the Changjiang River: a model-guided mechanism study, J. Geophys. Res., 114, C02006, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JC004831, 2009.
Yang, G.: Impacts of the construction of key water conservancy projects in the Yangtze River and sea level rise on water quality of Shanghai water intake, Acta Geographica Sinica , 21, 123–129, 2001.
Zhang, E. F., Chen, X. Q., and Wang, X. L.: Water discharge changes of the Changjiang river downstream Datong during dry season, J. Geogr. Sci., 13, 355–362, 2003.
Zhang, E. F., Savenije, H. H. G., Wu, H., Kong, Y. Z., and Zhu, J. R.: Analytical solution for salt intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary, China, Estuar. Coast. Shelf S., 91, 492–501, 2011.
Zhang, E. F., Savenije, H. H. G., Chen, S. L., and Chen, J. Y.: Water abstraction along the lower Yangtze River, China, and its impact on water discharge into the estuary, Phys. Chem. Earth, 47–48, 76–85, 2012.
Zhao, R., Yang, Z., Sun, T., Chen, B., and Chen, G.: Freshwater inflow requirements for the protection of the critical habitat and the drinking water sources in the Yangtze River Estuary, China, Commun. Nonlinear Sci., 14, 2507–2518, 2009.
Short summary
This paper demonstrates a method for calculating the probability of long-duration salt intrusions in the Yangtze Estuary and examines the impact of the Three Gorges Dam, the South-North Water Transfer Project and local abstractions on that probability. The relationship between river discharge and the intensity and duration of saline intrusions is shown to be probabilistic and continuous. That probability has more than doubled under the normal operating rules for those projects.
This paper demonstrates a method for calculating the probability of long-duration salt...
