Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4913–4931, 2014
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4913–4931, 2014

Research article 08 Dec 2014

Research article | 08 Dec 2014

Derivation and evaluation of landslide-triggering thresholds by a Monte Carlo approach

D. J. Peres and A. Cancelliere

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Cited articles

Aleotti, P.: A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures, Eng. Geol., 73, 247–265, 2004.
Balistrocchi, M. and Bacchi, B.: Modelling the statistical dependence of rainfall event variables through copula functions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1959–1977,, 2011.
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Barnes, L., Gruntfest, E., Hayden, M., Schultz, D., and Benight, C.: False alarms and close calls: A conceptual model of warning accuracy, Weather Forecast., 22, 1140–1147, 2007.
Short summary
A Monte Carlo approach, combining rainfall-stochastic models and hydrological and slope stability physically based models, is used to derive rainfall thresholds of landslide triggering. The uncertainty in threshold assessment related to variability of rainfall intensity within events and to past rainfall (antecedent rainfall) is analyzed and measured via ROC-based indexes, with a specific focus dedicated to the widely used power-law rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) thresholds.