Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4913–4931, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4913-2014
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4913–4931, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4913-2014

Research article 08 Dec 2014

Research article | 08 Dec 2014

Derivation and evaluation of landslide-triggering thresholds by a Monte Carlo approach

D. J. Peres and A. Cancelliere

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Short summary
A Monte Carlo approach, combining rainfall-stochastic models and hydrological and slope stability physically based models, is used to derive rainfall thresholds of landslide triggering. The uncertainty in threshold assessment related to variability of rainfall intensity within events and to past rainfall (antecedent rainfall) is analyzed and measured via ROC-based indexes, with a specific focus dedicated to the widely used power-law rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) thresholds.