Derivation and evaluation of landslide-triggering thresholds by a Monte Carlo approach

Peres, D. J.; Cancelliere, A.

doi:10.5194/hess-18-4913-2014

Articles | Volume 18, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4913-2014

© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4913-2014

© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 12

Research article

|

08 Dec 2014

Research article |

| 08 Dec 2014

Derivation and evaluation of landslide-triggering thresholds by a Monte Carlo approach

D. J. Peres and A. Cancelliere

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Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Mar 2014	124	80	11	215
Apr 2014	57	36	4	97
May 2014	22	21	2	45
Jun 2014	58	40	1	99
Jul 2014	11	27	4	42
Aug 2014	24	31	2	57
Sep 2014	13	15	1	29
Oct 2014	15	20	7	42
Nov 2014	18	29	3	50
Dec 2014	161	82	17	260
Jan 2015	60	30	5	95
Feb 2015	38	20	1	59
Mar 2015	35	12	1	48
Apr 2015	36	9	2	47
May 2015	21	11	0	32
Jun 2015	65	12	0	77
Jul 2015	41	17	2	60
Aug 2015	19	18	2	39
Sep 2015	21	12	11	44
Oct 2015	24	15	15	54
Nov 2015	31	8	1	40
Dec 2015	12	25	0	37
Jan 2016	24	10	0	34
Feb 2016	21	14	3	38
Mar 2016	30	8	12	50
Apr 2016	14	9	1	24
May 2016	10	1	0	11
Jun 2016	8	6	0	14
Jul 2016	20	8	1	29
Aug 2016	26	4	0	30
Sep 2016	21	2	1	24
Oct 2016	10	3	4	17
Nov 2016	27	1	7	35
Dec 2016	3	5	0	8
Jan 2017	13	4	1	18
Feb 2017	9	5	2	16
Mar 2017	20	8	4	32
Apr 2017	22	7	2	31
May 2017	28	4	2	34
Jun 2017	40	6	3	49
Jul 2017	23	17	0	40
Aug 2017	13	22	0	35
Sep 2017	34	15	0	49
Oct 2017	15	18	0	33
Nov 2017	21	23	0	44
Dec 2017	21	27	0	48
Jan 2018	11	10	0	21
Feb 2018	21	17	1	39
Mar 2018	23	14	0	37
Apr 2018	20	21	1	42
May 2018	15	22	0	37
Jun 2018	25	18	0	43
Jul 2018	29	31	0	60
Aug 2018	31	20	2	53
Sep 2018	54	28	1	83
Oct 2018	46	15	1	62
Nov 2018	26	17	1	44
Dec 2018	34	17	1	52
Jan 2019	19	11	0	30
Feb 2019	13	6	0	19
Mar 2019	8	8	0	16
Apr 2019	7	7	0	14
May 2019	8	16	0	24
Jun 2019	10	19	0	29
Jul 2019	19	31	0	50
Aug 2019	17	9	0	26
Sep 2019	8	11	0	19
Oct 2019	21	18	1	40
Nov 2019	13	22	0	35
Dec 2019	14	14	1	29
Jan 2020	14	5	2	21
Feb 2020	16	6	1	23
Mar 2020	13	9	0	22
Apr 2020	25	5	0	30
May 2020	50	7	0	57
Jun 2020	26	7	0	33
Jul 2020	42	22	8	72
Aug 2020	26	20	8	54
Sep 2020	23	13	0	36
Oct 2020	20	10	0	30
Nov 2020	15	4	0	19
Dec 2020	17	12	0	29
Jan 2021	33	20	0	53
Feb 2021	21	7	0	28
Mar 2021	24	13	0	37
Apr 2021	28	17	0	45
May 2021	27	20	2	49
Jun 2021	23	18	0	41
Jul 2021	24	11	1	36
Aug 2021	18	9	1	28
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Oct 2021	18	43	0	61
Nov 2021	16	17	0	33
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Jan 2022	39	22	0	61
Feb 2022	32	11	1	44
Mar 2022	13	12	0	25
Apr 2022	28	11	0	39
May 2022	19	18	1	38
Jun 2022	23	6	2	31
Jul 2022	29	5	1	35
Aug 2022	48	10	2	60
Sep 2022	19	11	0	30
Oct 2022	19	12	0	31
Nov 2022	39	22	2	63
Dec 2022	27	11	4	42
Jan 2023	33	19	1	53
Feb 2023	22	10	0	32
Mar 2023	34	21	0	55
Apr 2023	18	15	0	33
May 2023	14	10	0	24
Jun 2023	12	5	0	17
Jul 2023	27	14	4	45
Aug 2023	29	8	1	38
Sep 2023	26	12	1	39
Oct 2023	132	9	0	141
Nov 2023	103	10	3	116
Dec 2023	37	8	1	46
Jan 2024	17	8	1	26
Feb 2024	13	6	1	20
Mar 2024	34	19	3	56
Apr 2024	21	15	4	40
May 2024	29	8	5	42
Jun 2024	32	8	1	41
Jul 2024	23	14	5	42
Aug 2024	37	8	1	46
Sep 2024	20	4	0	24
Oct 2024	29	2	3	34
Nov 2024	28	13	3	44
Dec 2024	35	9	4	48
Jan 2025	39	16	3	58
Feb 2025	38	10	0	48
Mar 2025	32	14	2	48
Apr 2025	43	24	7	74
May 2025	64	24	2	90
Jun 2025	63	18	0	81
Jul 2025	49	18	2	69
Aug 2025	51	14	2	67
Sep 2025	109	15	3	127
Oct 2025	61	29	1	91
Nov 2025	32	22	0	54

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 07 Mar 2014)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Mar 2014	124	80	11	215
Apr 2014	57	36	4	97
May 2014	22	21	2	45
Jun 2014	58	40	1	99
Jul 2014	11	27	4	42
Aug 2014	24	31	2	57
Sep 2014	13	15	1	29
Oct 2014	15	20	7	42
Nov 2014	18	29	3	50
Dec 2014	161	82	17	260
Jan 2015	60	30	5	95
Feb 2015	38	20	1	59
Mar 2015	35	12	1	48
Apr 2015	36	9	2	47
May 2015	21	11	0	32
Jun 2015	65	12	0	77
Jul 2015	41	17	2	60
Aug 2015	19	18	2	39
Sep 2015	21	12	11	44
Oct 2015	24	15	15	54
Nov 2015	31	8	1	40
Dec 2015	12	25	0	37
Jan 2016	24	10	0	34
Feb 2016	21	14	3	38
Mar 2016	30	8	12	50
Apr 2016	14	9	1	24
May 2016	10	1	0	11
Jun 2016	8	6	0	14
Jul 2016	20	8	1	29
Aug 2016	26	4	0	30
Sep 2016	21	2	1	24
Oct 2016	10	3	4	17
Nov 2016	27	1	7	35
Dec 2016	3	5	0	8
Jan 2017	13	4	1	18
Feb 2017	9	5	2	16
Mar 2017	20	8	4	32
Apr 2017	22	7	2	31
May 2017	28	4	2	34
Jun 2017	40	6	3	49
Jul 2017	23	17	0	40
Aug 2017	13	22	0	35
Sep 2017	34	15	0	49
Oct 2017	15	18	0	33
Nov 2017	21	23	0	44
Dec 2017	21	27	0	48
Jan 2018	11	10	0	21
Feb 2018	21	17	1	39
Mar 2018	23	14	0	37
Apr 2018	20	21	1	42
May 2018	15	22	0	37
Jun 2018	25	18	0	43
Jul 2018	29	31	0	60
Aug 2018	31	20	2	53
Sep 2018	54	28	1	83
Oct 2018	46	15	1	62
Nov 2018	26	17	1	44
Dec 2018	34	17	1	52
Jan 2019	19	11	0	30
Feb 2019	13	6	0	19
Mar 2019	8	8	0	16
Apr 2019	7	7	0	14
May 2019	8	16	0	24
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Jul 2019	19	31	0	50
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Jan 2020	14	5	2	21
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Apr 2020	25	5	0	30
May 2020	50	7	0	57
Jun 2020	26	7	0	33
Jul 2020	42	22	8	72
Aug 2020	26	20	8	54
Sep 2020	23	13	0	36
Oct 2020	20	10	0	30
Nov 2020	15	4	0	19
Dec 2020	17	12	0	29
Jan 2021	33	20	0	53
Feb 2021	21	7	0	28
Mar 2021	24	13	0	37
Apr 2021	28	17	0	45
May 2021	27	20	2	49
Jun 2021	23	18	0	41
Jul 2021	24	11	1	36
Aug 2021	18	9	1	28
Sep 2021	23	14	0	37
Oct 2021	18	43	0	61
Nov 2021	16	17	0	33
Dec 2021	16	11	0	27
Jan 2022	39	22	0	61
Feb 2022	32	11	1	44
Mar 2022	13	12	0	25
Apr 2022	28	11	0	39
May 2022	19	18	1	38
Jun 2022	23	6	2	31
Jul 2022	29	5	1	35
Aug 2022	48	10	2	60
Sep 2022	19	11	0	30
Oct 2022	19	12	0	31
Nov 2022	39	22	2	63
Dec 2022	27	11	4	42
Jan 2023	33	19	1	53
Feb 2023	22	10	0	32
Mar 2023	34	21	0	55
Apr 2023	18	15	0	33
May 2023	14	10	0	24
Jun 2023	12	5	0	17
Jul 2023	27	14	4	45
Aug 2023	29	8	1	38
Sep 2023	26	12	1	39
Oct 2023	132	9	0	141
Nov 2023	103	10	3	116
Dec 2023	37	8	1	46
Jan 2024	17	8	1	26
Feb 2024	13	6	1	20
Mar 2024	34	19	3	56
Apr 2024	21	15	4	40
May 2024	29	8	5	42
Jun 2024	32	8	1	41
Jul 2024	23	14	5	42
Aug 2024	37	8	1	46
Sep 2024	20	4	0	24
Oct 2024	29	2	3	34
Nov 2024	28	13	3	44
Dec 2024	35	9	4	48
Jan 2025	39	16	3	58
Feb 2025	38	10	0	48
Mar 2025	32	14	2	48
Apr 2025	43	24	7	74
May 2025	64	24	2	90
Jun 2025	63	18	0	81
Jul 2025	49	18	2	69
Aug 2025	51	14	2	67
Sep 2025	109	15	3	127
Oct 2025	61	29	1	91
Nov 2025	32	22	0	54

Latest update: 18 Nov 2025

Short summary

A Monte Carlo approach, combining rainfall-stochastic models and hydrological and slope stability physically based models, is used to derive rainfall thresholds of landslide triggering. The uncertainty in threshold assessment related to variability of rainfall intensity within events and to past rainfall (antecedent rainfall) is analyzed and measured via ROC-based indexes, with a specific focus dedicated to the widely used power-law rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) thresholds.