Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1445-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1445-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Apr 2013
Research article |
| 17 Apr 2013
Statistical analysis of error propagation from radar rainfall to hydrological models
D. Zhu
Department of Civil Engineering, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
D. Z. Peng
College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
I. D. Cluckie
Department of Civil Engineering, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
Related authors
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Keke Zhao, Denghua Yan, Tianling Qin, Chenhao Li, Dingzhi Peng, and Yifan Song
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-291, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-291, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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This study presents a high-quality daily weather dataset for all of China from 1961 to 2021, including air temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, and sunshine duration. It was produced using a reconstruction framework that combines thousands of ground observations with landform and elevation data. The dataset provides consistent weather information even in mountainous regions and supports studies on land surface and water processes, climate change, and environmental impacts.
Xiaowan Liu, Zongxue Xu, Hong Yang, Xiuping Li, and Dingzhi Peng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-71, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-71, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The retreat of glaciers over the QTP is intensifying. To understand changes in glaciers, the two inventories (RGI 4.0 and GIC-Ⅱ) provide potential, but glacier volumes are not convincing. The study recalculated and compared glacier volumes in RGI 4.0 and GIC-Ⅱ for the QTP. The results indicate the slope-dependent algorithm performs better than area-volume-based equations. The northern QTP has a larger degree of fragmentation. An obvious offset of glacier volumes in different aspects is observed.
Zongxue Xu, Dingzhi Peng, Wenchao Sun, Bo Pang, Depeng Zuo, Andreas Schumann, and Yangbo Chen
Proc. IAHS, 379, 463–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-463-2018, 2018
Dehua Zhu, Shirley Echendu, Yunqing Xuan, Mike Webster, and Ian Cluckie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4707–4715, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4707-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4707-2016, 2016
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The study in the paper is utilizing and maximizing high-performance computing (HPC) power resources to support the study on extreme weather impact due to climate change, which for the first time allows modellers to simulate the entire system, ranging from the global circulation to a target catchment for impact study on a single platform, where both NWP and the hydrological model are executed so that more effective interaction and communication can be achieved and maintained between the model.
D. Zhu, Y. Xuan, and I. Cluckie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 257–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-257-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-257-2014, 2014
D. Zhu, Q. Ren, Y. Xuan, Y. Chen, and I. D. Cluckie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 495–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-495-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-495-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
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Laura Gil-García, Nazaret M. Montilla-López, Carlos Gutiérrez-Martín, Ángel Sánchez-Daniel, Pablo Saiz-Santiago, Josué M. Polanco-Martínez, Julio Pindado, and Carlos Dionisio Pérez-Blanco
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4501–4520, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4501-2024, 2024
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This paper presents an interdisciplinary model for quantifying uncertainties in water allocation under climate change. It combines climate, hydrological, and microeconomic experiments with a decision support system. Multi-model analyses reveal potential futures for water management policies, emphasizing non-linear climate responses. As illustrated in the Douro River basin, minor water allocation changes have significant economic impacts, stresssing the need for adaptation strategies.
Jitao Zhang, Dimitri Solomatine, and Zengchuan Dong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3739–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3739-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3739-2024, 2024
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Alain Mailhot, Guillaume Talbot, Samuel Bolduc, and Claudine Fortier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1389, 2024
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Rating curves are used to estimate flow from recorded stage at hydrometric stations. Uncertainties on these flows are generally not estimated nor reported. This paper proposed an approach to develop rating curves and assess the corresponding uncertainties on estimated flow that can be readily applied to large-scale hydrometric networks. Mean standard deviation on estimated flows are of the order of 6.5 %. Uncertainties increase significantly for low stages and can reach values larger than 20 %.
Gwyneth Matthews, Christopher Barnard, Hannah Cloke, Sarah L. Dance, Toni Jurlina, Cinzia Mazzetti, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2939–2968, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2939-2022, 2022
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The European Flood Awareness System creates flood forecasts for up to 15 d in the future for the whole of Europe which are made available to local authorities. These forecasts can be erroneous because the weather forecasts include errors or because the hydrological model used does not represent the flow in the rivers correctly. We found that, by using recent observations and a model trained with past observations and forecasts, the real-time forecast can be corrected, thus becoming more useful.
Marina R. L. Mautner, Laura Foglia, and Jonathan D. Herman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1319–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1319-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1319-2022, 2022
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Sensitivity analysis can be harnessed to evaluate effects of model uncertainties on planning outcomes. This study explores how observation and parameter uncertainty propagate through a hydrogeologic model to influence the ranking of decision alternatives. Using global sensitivity analysis and evaluation of aquifer management objectives, we evaluate how physical properties of the model and choice of observations for calibration can lead to variations in decision-relevant model outputs.
Alessandro Amaranto, Dinis Juizo, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 245–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-245-2022, 2022
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This study aims at designing water supply strategies that are robust against climate, social, and land use changes in a sub-Saharan river basin. We found that robustness analysis supports the discovery of policies enhancing the resilience of water resources systems, benefiting the agricultural, energy, and urban sectors. We show how energy sustainability is affected by water availability, while urban and irrigation resilience also depends on infrastructural interventions and land use changes.
Thibaut Lachaut and Amaury Tilmant
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6421–6435, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6421-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6421-2021, 2021
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Response surfaces are increasingly used to identify the hydroclimatic conditions leading to a water resources system's failure. Partitioning the surface usually requires performance thresholds that are not necessarily crisp. We propose a methodology that combines the inherent uncertainty of response surfaces with the ambiguity of performance thresholds. The proposed methodology is illustrated with a multireservoir system in Canada for which some performance thresholds are imprecise.
Lila Collet, Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Giuseppe Formetta, and Lindsay Beevers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5387–5401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018, 2018
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Floods and droughts cause significant damages and pose risks to lives worldwide. In a climate change context this work identifies hotspots across Great Britain, i.e. places expected to be impacted by an increase in floods and droughts. By the 2080s the western coast of England and Wales and northeastern Scotland would experience more floods in winter and droughts in autumn, with a higher increase in drought hazard, showing a need to adapt water management policies in light of climate change.
Seungwoo Chang, Wendy Graham, Jeffrey Geurink, Nisai Wanakule, and Tirusew Asefa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4793–4813, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4793-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4793-2018, 2018
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It is important to understand potential impacts of climate change and human water use on streamflow and groundwater levels. This study used climate models with an integrated hydrologic model to project future streamflow and groundwater level in Tampa Bay for a variety of future water use scenarios. Impacts of different climate projections on streamflow were found to be much stronger than the impacts of different human water use scenarios, but both were significant for groundwater projection.
Jessica E. Cherry, Corrie Knapp, Sarah Trainor, Andrea J. Ray, Molly Tedesche, and Susan Walker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 133–151, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-133-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-133-2017, 2017
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We know that climate is changing quickly in the Far North (the Arctic and sub-Arctic). Hydropower continues to grow in this region because water resources are perceived to be plentiful. However, with changes in glacier extent and permafrost, and more extreme events, will those resources prove reliable into the future? This study amasses the evidence that quantitative hydrology modeling and uncertainty assessment have matured to the point where they should be used in water resource planning.
Claudio I. Meier, Jorge Sebastián Moraga, Geri Pranzini, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4177–4190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4177-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4177-2016, 2016
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We show that the derived distribution approach is able to characterize the interannual variability of precipitation much better than fitting a probabilistic model to annual rainfall totals, as long as continuously gauged data are available. The method is a useful tool for describing temporal changes in the distribution of annual rainfall, as it works for records as short as 5 years, and therefore does not require any stationarity assumption over long periods.
Usman T. Khan and Caterina Valeo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2267–2293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2267-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2267-2016, 2016
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This paper contains a new two-step method to construct fuzzy numbers using observational data. In addition an existing fuzzy neural network is modified to account for fuzzy number inputs. This is combined with possibility-theory based intervals to train the network. Furthermore, model output and a defuzzification technique is used to estimate the risk of low Dissolved Oxygen so that water resource managers can implement strategies to prevent the occurrence of low Dissolved Oxygen.
M. Biasutti and R. Seager
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2945–2961, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2945-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2945-2015, 2015
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We estimate future changes in US erosivity from the most recent ensemble projections of daily and monthly rainfall accumulation. The expectation of overall increase in erosivity is confirmed by these calculations, but a quantitative assessment is marred by large uncertainties. Specifically, the uncertainty in the method of estimation of erosivity is more consequential than that deriving from the spread in climate simulations, and leads to changes of uncertain sign in parts of the south.
M. C. Peel, R. Srikanthan, T. A. McMahon, and D. J. Karoly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1615–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015, 2015
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We present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty using non-stationary stochastic replicates of monthly precipitation and temperature projections and investigate the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected runoff and reservoir yield. Amplification of within-GCM variability from precipitation to runoff to reservoir yield suggests climate change impact assessments ignoring within-GCM uncertainty would provide water resources managers with an unjustified sense of certainty
T. A. McMahon, M. C. Peel, and D. J. Karoly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 361–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-361-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-361-2015, 2015
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Here we assess GCM performance from a hydrologic perspective. We identify five better performing CMIP3 GCMs that reproduce grid-scale climatological statistics of observed precipitation and temperature over global land regions for future hydrologic simulation. GCM performance in reproducing observed mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature and mean monthly precipitation and temperature was assessed and ranked, and five better performing GCMs were identified.
L. J. M. Peeters, G. M. Podger, T. Smith, T. Pickett, R. H. Bark, and S. M. Cuddy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3777–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3777-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3777-2014, 2014
L. Zhuo, M. M. Mekonnen, and A. Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2219–2234, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2219-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2219-2014, 2014
C. A. Scott, S. Vicuña, I. Blanco-Gutiérrez, F. Meza, and C. Varela-Ortega
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1339–1348, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1339-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1339-2014, 2014
N. Voisin, H. Li, D. Ward, M. Huang, M. Wigmosta, and L. R. Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3605–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013, 2013
B. L. Harding, A. W. Wood, and J. R. Prairie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3989–4007, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3989-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3989-2012, 2012
J.-S. Yang, E.-S. Chung, S.-U. Kim, and T.-W. Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-801-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-801-2012, 2012
S. Quiroga, Z. Fernández-Haddad, and A. Iglesias
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 505–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-505-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-505-2011, 2011
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