Articles | Volume 30, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5297-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5297-2026
Research article
 | 
20 Aug 2026
Research article |  | 20 Aug 2026

Lake Victoria to the Sudd Wetland: flood wave timing, connectivity and wetland buffering across the White Nile

Douglas Mulangwa, Evet Naturinda, Charles Koboji, Benon T. Zaake, Emily Black, Hannah Cloke, and Elisabeth M. Stephens

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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3045–3075, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3045-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3045-2026, 2026
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Cited articles

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Awange, J. L., Ogalo, L., Bae, K. H., Were, P., Omondi, P., Omute, P., and Omullo, M.: Falling Lake Victoria water levels: Is climate a contributing factor?, Clim. Change, 89, 281–297, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9409-x, 2008. 
Balasus, N., Jacob, D. J., Bloom, A. A., East, J. D., Estrada, L. A., Hancock, S. E., He, M., Mooring, T. A., Turner, A. J., and Worden, J. R.: 2019–2024 trends in African livestock and wetland emissions as contributors to the global methane rise, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 4601–4617, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4601-2026, 2026. 
Bamweyana, I., Musinguzi, M., and Kayondo, L. M.: Evaluation of CHIRPS satellite gridded dataset as an alternative rainfall estimate for localized modelling over Uganda, Atmos. Clim. Sci., 11, 797–811, https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2021.114046, 2021. 
Basheer, M. and Elagib, N. A.: Performance of satellite-based and GPCC 7.0 rainfall products in an extremely data-scarce country in the Nile Basin, Atmos. Res., 215, 128–140, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.08.028, 2019. 
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This study traced how water moved from Lake Victoria to the Sudd wetlands to explain the prolonged flooding in South Sudan between 2019 and 2024. Using satellite observations, rainfall records, and lake and river measurements, we found that water takes about 17 months to travel through the system, much longer than previously assumed 5 months. The results show that lakes and wetlands can store and slowly release water over several years, helping improve flood forecasting and early warning.

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