Articles | Volume 30, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5097-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5097-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Aug 2026
Research article |
| 12 Aug 2026
| 12 Aug 2026
A process-informed framework linking temperature-rainfall projections and urban flood modeling
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Expertise Center for Climate Extremes, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Daniel B. Wright
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, USA
Jovan Blagojevic
Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Peter Molnar
Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Mohammad A. Hussain
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, USA
Future Cities Laboratory, Singapore-ETH Centre, Singapore
State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and the Department of Architecture and Urban Design, University of Macau, Macao SAR, China
Yongkun Li
State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Beijing Water Science and Technology Institute, Beijing, China
Guangheng Ni
State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Nadav Peleg
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Expertise Center for Climate Extremes, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 4957–4967, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4957-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4957-2026, 2026
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Extreme rainfall is expected to grow in magnitude with increasing temperature. We assess whether very rare extremes increase with temperature faster than moderate extremes, and we test methods to include this effect into a model to predict future extremes called TENAX. We find that this dependence on temperature is typically observed but including it in the model without prior information on its magnitude may lead to disproportionately large uncertainty.
Kaidi Peng, Daniel B. Wright, Lei Yan, G. Aaron Alexander, and Yagmur Derin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3466, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Accurate flood predictions save lives, but many areas lack ground-based rain gauges, and the calibration of the flood models heavily relies on data accuracy. The uncertainties in data and models make the streamflow prediction unreliable. This paper introduces an uncertainty-aware prediction system. It accounts for uncertainties from satellite rainfall, streamflow data, and the model itself without needing perfect rainfall data. This approach can generate more reliable streamflow predictions.
Pau Wiersma, Jan Magnusson, Nadav Peleg, Bettina Schaefli, and Gregoire Mariethoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 3331–3350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3331-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3331-2026, 2026
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Streamflow observations contain information about snow, but their potential to constrain seasonal snow mass reconstructions remains underexplored. Using inverse hydrological modeling, we show that streamflow is particularly effective at constraining catchment-aggregated melt rates, but that non-uniqueness in the snow–streamflow relationship and uncertainties in the inverse modeling chain can easily limit inversion performance.
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2481, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Qi Zhuang, Marika Koukoula, Shuguang Liu, Zhengzheng Zhou, and Nadav Peleg
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1267–1281, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1267-2025, 2025
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Ruidong Li, Jiapei Liu, Ting Sun, Jian Shao, Fuqiang Tian, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 5677–5694, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5677-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5677-2025, 2025
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 4093–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4093-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4093-2025, 2025
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Francesco Marra, Nadav Peleg, Elena Cristiano, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Federica Remondi, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2565–2570, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2565-2025, 2025
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Climate change is escalating the risks related to hydro-meteorological extremes. This preface introduces a special issue originating from a European Geosciences Union (EGU) session. It highlights the challenges posed by these extremes, ranging from hazard assessment to mitigation strategies, and covers both water excess events like floods, landslides, and coastal hazards and water deficit events such as droughts and fire weather. The collection aims to advance understanding, improve resilience, and inform policy-making.
Amber van Hamel, Peter Molnar, Joren Janzing, and Manuela Irene Brunner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2975–2995, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2975-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2975-2025, 2025
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Suspended sediment is a natural component of rivers, but extreme suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) can have negative impacts on water use and aquatic ecosystems. We identify the main factors influencing the spatial and temporal variability of annual SSC regimes and extreme SSC events. Our analysis shows that different processes are more important for annual SSC regimes than for extreme events and that compound events driven by glacial melt and high-intensity rainfall led to the highest SSCs.
Mosisa Tujuba Wakjira, Nadav Peleg, Johan Six, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 863–886, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-863-2025, 2025
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In this study, we implement a climate, water, and crop interaction model to evaluate current conditions and project future changes in rainwater availability and its yield potential, with the goal of informing adaptation policies and strategies in Ethiopia. Although climate change is likely to increase rainfall in Ethiopia, our findings suggest that water-scarce croplands in Ethiopia are expected to face reduced crop yields during the main growing season due to increases in temperature.
Tabea Cache, Milton Salvador Gomez, Tom Beucler, Jovan Blagojevic, João Paulo Leitao, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5443–5458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5443-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5443-2024, 2024
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We introduce a new deep-learning model that addresses the limitations of existing urban flood models in handling varied terrains and rainfall events. Our model subdivides a city into small patches and presents a novel approach to incorporate broader terrain information. It accurately predicts high-resolution flood maps across diverse rainfall events and cities (on minute and meter scales) that haven’t been seen by the model, which offers valuable insights for urban flood mitigation strategies.
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4521–4538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, 2024
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Tobias Siegfried, Aziz Ul Haq Mujahid, Beatrice Sabine Marti, Peter Molnar, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, and Andrey Yakovlev
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Our study investigates climate change impacts on water resources in Central Asia's high-mountain regions. Using new data and a stochastic soil moisture model, we found increased precipitation and higher temperatures in the future, leading to higher water discharge despite decreasing glacier melt contributions. These findings are crucial for understanding and preparing for climate change effects on Central Asia's water resources, with further research needed on extreme weather event impacts.
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Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Qinggang Gao, Christian Zeman, Jesus Vergara-Temprado, Daniela C. A. Lima, Peter Molnar, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 189–211, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-189-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-189-2023, 2023
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We developed a vortex identification algorithm for realistic atmospheric simulations. The algorithm enabled us to obtain a climatology of vortex shedding from Madeira Island for a 10-year simulation period. This first objective climatological analysis of vortex streets shows consistency with observed atmospheric conditions. The analysis shows a pronounced annual cycle with an increasing vortex shedding rate from April to August and a sudden decrease in September.
Ruidong Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, and Guang-Heng Ni
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Fabian Walter, Elias Hodel, Erik S. Mannerfelt, Kristen Cook, Michael Dietze, Livia Estermann, Michaela Wenner, Daniel Farinotti, Martin Fengler, Lukas Hammerschmidt, Flavia Hänsli, Jacob Hirschberg, Brian McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4011–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, 2022
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Debris flows are dangerous sediment–water mixtures in steep terrain. Their formation takes place in poorly accessible terrain where instrumentation cannot be installed. Here we propose to monitor such source terrain with an autonomous drone for mapping sediments which were left behind by debris flows or may contribute to future events. Short flight intervals elucidate changes of such sediments, providing important information for landscape evolution and the likelihood of future debris flows.
Yuan Liu and Daniel B. Wright
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5241–5267, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5241-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5241-2022, 2022
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We present a new approach to estimate extreme rainfall probability and severity using the atmospheric water balance, where precipitation is the sum of water vapor components moving in and out of a storm. We apply our method to the Mississippi Basin and its five major subbasins. Our approach achieves a good fit to reference precipitation, indicating that the rainfall probability estimation can benefit from additional information from physical processes that control rainfall.
Michael Schirmer, Adam Winstral, Tobias Jonas, Paolo Burlando, and Nadav Peleg
The Cryosphere, 16, 3469–3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3469-2022, 2022
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Rain is highly variable in time at a given location so that there can be both wet and dry climate periods. In this study, we quantify the effects of this natural climate variability and other sources of uncertainty on changes in flooding events due to rain on snow (ROS) caused by climate change. For ROS events with a significant contribution of snowmelt to runoff, the change due to climate was too small to draw firm conclusions about whether there are more ROS events of this important type.
Silvan Ragettli, Tabea Donauer, Peter Molnar, Ron Delnoije, and Tobias Siegfried
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 797–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-797-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-797-2022, 2022
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This paper presents a novel methodology to identify and quantitatively analyze deposition and erosion patterns in ephemeral ponds or in perennial lakes with strong water level fluctuations. We apply this method to unravel the water and sediment balance of Lac Wégnia, a designated Ramsar site in Mali. The study can be a showcase for monitoring Sahelian lakes using remote sensing data, as it sheds light on the actual drivers of change in Sahelian lakes.
Elena Leonarduzzi, Brian W. McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5937–5950, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5937-2021, 2021
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Landslides are a dangerous natural hazard affecting alpine regions, calling for effective warning systems. Here we consider different approaches for the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides at the regional scale, based on open-access datasets and operational hydrological forecasting systems. We find antecedent wetness useful to improve upon the classical rainfall thresholds and the resolution of the hydrological model used for its estimate to be a critical aspect.
Jacob Hirschberg, Alexandre Badoux, Brian W. McArdell, Elena Leonarduzzi, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2773–2789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021, 2021
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Debris-flow prediction is often based on rainfall thresholds, but uncertainty assessments are rare. We established rainfall thresholds using two approaches and find that 25 debris flows are needed for uncertainties to converge in an Alpine basin and that the suitable method differs for regional compared to local thresholds. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a statistical learning algorithm to improve threshold performance. These findings are helpful for early warning system development.
Zhengzheng Zhou, James A. Smith, Mary Lynn Baeck, Daniel B. Wright, Brianne K. Smith, and Shuguang Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4701–4717, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4701-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4701-2021, 2021
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The role of rainfall space–time structure in flood response is an important research issue in urban hydrology. This study contributes to this understanding in small urban watersheds. Combining stochastically based rainfall scenarios with a hydrological model, the results show the complexities of flood response for various return periods, implying the common assumptions of spatially uniform rainfall in urban flood frequency are problematic, even for relatively small basin scales.
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Short summary
We present a framework using observed rainfall and temperature to generate realistic storms and simulate street-scale flooding for present and future climates. It integrates temperature-based rainfall scaling, storm-frequency estimation, and urban flood modeling, demonstrated in Beijing to assess changes in regional storm and flood depth, timing, and flow velocity. The workflow is data-light, physically grounded, and transferable worldwide.
We present a framework using observed rainfall and temperature to generate realistic storms and...
