A process-informed framework linking temperature-rainfall projections and urban flood modeling

Zou, Wenyue; Li, Ruidong; Wright, Daniel B.; Blagojevic, Jovan; Molnar, Peter; Hussain, Mohammad A.; Zhu, Yue; Li, Yongkun; Ni, Guangheng; Peleg, Nadav

doi:10.5194/hess-30-5097-2026

Articles | Volume 30, issue 15

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5097-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5097-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 30, issue 15

Research article

|

12 Aug 2026

Research article |

| 12 Aug 2026

A process-informed framework linking temperature-rainfall projections and urban flood modeling

Wenyue Zou, Ruidong Li, Daniel B. Wright, Jovan Blagojevic, Peter Molnar, Mohammad A. Hussain, Yue Zhu, Yongkun Li, Guangheng Ni, and Nadav Peleg

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5097-2026-supplement

Data sets

MOD15A2H MODIS/Terra Leaf Area Index/FPAR 8-Day L4 Global 500m SIN Grid V006 R. Myneni et al. https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD15A2H.006

ESA WorldCover 10 m 2021 v200 Daniele Zanaga et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7254221

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present Hans Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

Model code and software

Gamma-based Spatial Quantile Mapping (GSQM) of heavy rainfall field --- an example of a heavy storm in Beijing W. Zou and N. Peleg https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13646191

AUTOSHED-Beijing Municipal Administrative Center R. Li and W. Zou https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15869025

Short summary

We present a framework using observed rainfall and temperature to generate realistic storms and simulate street-scale flooding for present and future climates. It integrates temperature-based rainfall scaling, storm-frequency estimation, and urban flood modeling, demonstrated in Beijing to assess changes in regional storm and flood depth, timing, and flow velocity. The workflow is data-light, physically grounded, and transferable worldwide.