Articles | Volume 30, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4509-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4509-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A systematic evaluation of 15 actual evapotranspiration formulations within conceptual hydrological models
Gabrielle Burns
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Keirnan Fowler
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Murray Peel
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Clare Stephens
Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, NSW, Australia
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Hansini Gardiya Weligamage, Keirnan Fowler, Margarita Saft, Tim Peterson, Dongryeol Ryu, and Murray C. Peel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 4057–4074, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4057-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4057-2026, 2026
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This study is the first to propose actual evapotranspiration (AET) signatures, which can be used to assess multiple aspects of AET dynamics across various temporal scales. As a demonstration, we applied AET signatures to evaluate two remotely sensed (RS) AET products against flux tower AET. The results reveal specific deficiencies in RS AET and provide guidance for selecting appropriate RS AET, including for modelling studies.
Vivek Kumar Yadav, Murray C. Peel, Keirnan Fowler, Dongryeol Ryu, and Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 3455–3496, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3455-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3455-2026, 2026
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Identifying drivers is crucial for process understanding and predictions. In Hydrometeorological systems, many variables are closely related, and common methods often rely on correlation. We describe theoretically distinct methods of discovering cause-effect relations from data. We evaluate them in a large simulated environment. Results show that finding cause-effect relations provides a parsimonious picture and to obtain robust predictions, especially under changing environmental conditions.
Sandra Pool, Keirnan Fowler, Hansini Gardiya Weligamage, and Murray Peel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 2797–2815, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2797-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2797-2026, 2026
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Multivariate calibration has become a widely used method to improve model realism. We found that multivariate calibration can lead to less constrained flux maps and more uncertain hydrographs relative to univariate calibration. These symptoms could be caused by non-overlapping behavioural parameter distributions for the individual calibration variables. The results emphasize that the value of non-discharge data in calibration is contingent on the suitability of the model structure.
Nyree Campion, Keirnan Fowler, Margot Turner, and Joel Hall
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-378, 2026
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Globally, many river systems have seen less flow for the same rainfall after periods of long drought. This study investigates this behaviour in over 300 catchments across the south-east and south-west of Australia. Through comparison we infer possible underlying causes, expanding on current studies limited to single locations. Over half the catchments studied displayed a drop in flow. We suggest the influence of pre-existing trends in groundwater and highlight the importance of land use history.
Matthew O. Grant, Anna M. Ukkola, Elisabeth Vogel, Sanaa Hobeichi, Andy J. Pitman, Alex Raymond Borowiak, and Keirnan Fowler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 5555–5573, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5555-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5555-2025, 2025
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Australia is regularly subjected to severe and widespread drought. By using multiple drought indicators, we show that although there have been widespread decreases in droughts since the beginning of the 20th century, many regions have seen an increase in droughts in more recent decades. Despite these changes, our analysis shows that they remain within the range of observed variability and are not unprecedented in the context of past droughts.
Keirnan J. A. Fowler, Ziqi Zhang, and Xue Hou
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4079–4095, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4079-2025, 2025
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This paper presents version 2 of the Australian edition of the Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies (CAMELS) series of datasets. CAMELS-AUS (Australia) v2 comprises data for an increased number (561) of catchments, each with long-term monitoring, combining hydrometeorological time series with attributes related to geology, soil, topography, land cover, anthropogenic influence and hydroclimatology. It is freely downloadable from https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.12575680.
Hansini Gardiya Weligamage, Keirnan Fowler, Margarita Saft, Tim Peterson, Dongryeol Ryu, and Murray Peel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3373, 2025
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This study adopts actual evapotranspiration (AET) signatures to diagnose deficiencies in simulation of AET within conceptual rainfall-runoff models. Five models are assessed using flux tower data at 14 Australian sites. Even when AET is included in the calibration, the models struggle to represent aspects of AET dynamics, including interannual variability and timing on seasonal and event scales. The approach shows promise for more insightful critique of model simulations.
Keirnan Fowler, Murray Peel, Margarita Saft, Tim J. Peterson, Andrew Western, Lawrence Band, Cuan Petheram, Sandra Dharmadi, Kim Seong Tan, Lu Zhang, Patrick Lane, Anthony Kiem, Lucy Marshall, Anne Griebel, Belinda E. Medlyn, Dongryeol Ryu, Giancarlo Bonotto, Conrad Wasko, Anna Ukkola, Clare Stephens, Andrew Frost, Hansini Gardiya Weligamage, Patricia Saco, Hongxing Zheng, Francis Chiew, Edoardo Daly, Glen Walker, R. Willem Vervoort, Justin Hughes, Luca Trotter, Brad Neal, Ian Cartwright, and Rory Nathan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6073–6120, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022, 2022
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Recently, we have seen multi-year droughts tending to cause shifts in the relationship between rainfall and streamflow. In shifted catchments that have not recovered, an average rainfall year produces less streamflow today than it did pre-drought. We take a multi-disciplinary approach to understand why these shifts occur, focusing on Australia's over-10-year Millennium Drought. We evaluate multiple hypotheses against evidence, with particular focus on the key role of groundwater processes.
Luca Trotter, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Keirnan J. A. Fowler, Margarita Saft, and Murray C. Peel
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6359–6369, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6359-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6359-2022, 2022
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MARRMoT is a piece of software that emulates 47 common models for hydrological simulations. It can be used to run and calibrate these models within a common environment as well as to easily modify them. We restructured and recoded MARRMoT in order to make the models run faster and to simplify their use, while also providing some new features. This new MARRMoT version runs models on average 3.6 times faster while maintaining very strong consistency in their outputs to the previous version.
Keirnan J. A. Fowler, Suwash Chandra Acharya, Nans Addor, Chihchung Chou, and Murray C. Peel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3847–3867, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3847-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3847-2021, 2021
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This paper presents the Australian edition of the Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies (CAMELS) series of datasets. CAMELS-AUS comprises data for 222 unregulated catchments with long-term monitoring, combining hydrometeorological time series (streamflow and 18 climatic variables) with 134 attributes related to geology, soil, topography, land cover, anthropogenic influence and hydroclimatology. It is freely downloadable from https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.921850.
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Short summary
Improving how rainfall-runoff models estimate evapotranspiration is key to better reproducing water partitioning under current conditions, and will increase model realism under future changing conditions. We tested how well different conceptual rainfall-runoff model equations simulate evapotranspiration using Australian catchment and flux tower data. We found one equation consistently worked better than the others. However, even this equation had flaws, pointing to missing vegetation processes.
Improving how rainfall-runoff models estimate evapotranspiration is key to better reproducing...