Articles | Volume 29, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5593-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5593-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Oct 2025
Research article |
| 22 Oct 2025
| 22 Oct 2025
Understanding the relationship between streamflow forecast skill and value across the western US
Parthkumar A. Modi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Jared C. Carbone
Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO 80401, USA
Keith S. Jennings
Water Resources Institute, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA
Hannah Kamen
Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO 80401, USA
Joseph R. Kasprzyk
Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Bill Szafranski
Lynker, Boulder, CO 80301, USA
Cameron W. Wobus
CK Blueshift LLC, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Ben Livneh
Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Western Water Assessment, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
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Wolverine denning habitat inferred using a snow threshold differed for three different spatial representations of snow. These differences were based on the annual volume of snow and the elevation of the snow line. While denning habitat was most influenced by winter meteorological conditions, our results show that studies applying thresholds to environmental datasets should report uncertainties stemming from different spatial resolutions and uncertainties introduced by the thresholds themselves.
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Landslides have often been observed in the aftermath of wildfires. This study explores regional patterns in the rainfall that caused landslides both after fires and in unburned locations. In general, landslides that occur after fires are triggered by less rainfall, confirming that fire helps to set the stage for landslides. However, there are regional differences in the ways in which fire impacts landslides, such as the size and direction of shifts in the seasonality of landslides after fires.
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Measurements of channel characteristics are important for accurate forecasting in the NOAA National Water Model (NWM) but are scarcely available. We seek to improve channel representativeness in the NWM by updating channel geometry and roughness parameters using a large, previously unpublished, dataset of approximately 48 000 gauges. We find that the updated channel parameterization from this new dataset leads to improvements in simulated streamflow performance and channel representation.
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Short summary
This study shows that, in unmanaged snow-dominated basins, high forecast accuracy does not always lead to high economic value, especially during extreme conditions like droughts. It highlights how irregular errors in modern forecasting systems weaken the connection between accuracy and value. These findings call for forecast evaluations to focus not only on accuracy but also on economic impacts, providing valuable guidance for better water resource management under uncertainty.
This study shows that, in unmanaged snow-dominated basins, high forecast accuracy does not...
