Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 29, issue 20
Articles | Volume 29, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5593-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5593-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 29, issue 20
Research article
 | 
22 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 22 Oct 2025

Understanding the relationship between streamflow forecast skill and value across the western US

Parthkumar A. Modi, Jared C. Carbone, Keith S. Jennings, Hannah Kamen, Joseph R. Kasprzyk, Bill Szafranski, Cameron W. Wobus, and Ben Livneh

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Short summary
This study shows that, in unmanaged snow-dominated basins, high forecast accuracy does not always lead to high economic value, especially during extreme conditions like droughts. It highlights how irregular errors in modern forecasting systems weaken the connection between accuracy and value. These findings call for forecast evaluations to focus not only on accuracy but also on economic impacts, providing valuable guidance for better water resource management under uncertainty.
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