Understanding the relationship between streamflow forecast skill and value across the western US

Modi, Parthkumar A.; Carbone, Jared C.; Jennings, Keith S.; Kamen, Hannah; Kasprzyk, Joseph R.; Szafranski, Bill; Wobus, Cameron W.; Livneh, Ben

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5593-2025

Articles | Volume 29, issue 20

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5593-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5593-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 29, issue 20

Research article

|

22 Oct 2025

Research article |

| 22 Oct 2025

Understanding the relationship between streamflow forecast skill and value across the western US

Parthkumar A. Modi, Jared C. Carbone, Keith S. Jennings, Hannah Kamen, Joseph R. Kasprzyk, Bill Szafranski, Cameron W. Wobus, and Ben Livneh

Data sets

Long Short Term Memory simulations and code for 664 basins in the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction framework (LSTM-ESP) P. Modi and B. Livneh https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14213155

GAGES-II: Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/P96CPHOT

Daily 4 km Gridded SWE and Snow Depth from Assimilated In-Situ and Modeled Data over the Conterminous US. (NSIDC-0719, Version 1) P. Broxton et al. https://doi.org/10.5067/0GGPB220EX6A

USGS Water Data for the Nation United States Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN

Model code and software

Long Short Term Memory simulations and code for 664 basins in the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction framework (LSTM-ESP) P. Modi and B. Livneh https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14213155

NCAR/wrf_hydro_nwm_public: WRF-Hydro® v5.2.0 (v5.2.0-rc2) James McCreight et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4479912

Short summary

This study shows that, in unmanaged snow-dominated basins, high forecast accuracy does not always lead to high economic value, especially during extreme conditions like droughts. It highlights how irregular errors in modern forecasting systems weaken the connection between accuracy and value. These findings call for forecast evaluations to focus not only on accuracy but also on economic impacts, providing valuable guidance for better water resource management under uncertainty.