Articles | Volume 28, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5031-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5031-2024
Research article
 | 
26 Nov 2024
Research article |  | 26 Nov 2024

A comprehensive uncertainty framework for historical flood frequency analysis: a 500-year-long case study

Mathieu Lucas, Michel Lang, Benjamin Renard, and Jérôme Le Coz

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2024-50', Neil Macdonald, 27 Mar 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Michel Lang, 07 May 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2024-50', Helen Hooker, 25 Apr 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Michel Lang, 07 May 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (10 Jun 2024) by Frederiek Sperna Weiland
AR by Michel Lang on behalf of the Authors (11 Jun 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (12 Jul 2024) by Frederiek Sperna Weiland
RR by Neil Macdonald (15 Jul 2024)
RR by Helen Hooker (16 Jul 2024)
ED: Publish as is (27 Sep 2024) by Frederiek Sperna Weiland
AR by Michel Lang on behalf of the Authors (30 Sep 2024)  Manuscript 

Post-review adjustments

AA: Author's adjustment | EA: Editor approval
AA by Michel Lang on behalf of the Authors (25 Nov 2024)   Author's adjustment   Manuscript
EA: Adjustments approved (25 Nov 2024) by Frederiek Sperna Weiland
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Short summary
The proposed flood frequency model accounts for uncertainty in the perception threshold S and the starting date of the historical period. Using a 500-year-long case study, inclusion of historical floods reduces the uncertainty in flood quantiles, even when only the number of exceedances of S is known. Ignoring threshold uncertainty leads to underestimated flood quantile uncertainty. This underlines the value of using a comprehensive framework for uncertainty estimation.