Articles | Volume 28, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5031-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5031-2024
Research article
 | 
26 Nov 2024
Research article |  | 26 Nov 2024

A comprehensive uncertainty framework for historical flood frequency analysis: a 500-year-long case study

Mathieu Lucas, Michel Lang, Benjamin Renard, and Jérôme Le Coz

Related authors

River suspended-sand flux computation with uncertainty estimation using water samples and high-resolution ADCP measurements
Jessica Marggraf, Guillaume Dramais, Jérôme Le Coz, Blaise Calmel, Benoît Camenen, David J. Topping, William Santini, Gilles Pierrefeu, and François Lauters
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1243–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1243-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Changes in Mediterranean flood processes and seasonality
Yves Tramblay, Patrick Arnaud, Guillaume Artigue, Michel Lang, Emmanuel Paquet, Luc Neppel, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2973–2987, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Concentrations and fluxes of suspended particulate matter and associated contaminants in the Rhône River from Lake Geneva to the Mediterranean Sea
Hugo Lepage, Alexandra Gruat, Fabien Thollet, Jérôme Le Coz, Marina Coquery, Matthieu Masson, Aymeric Dabrin, Olivier Radakovitch, Jérôme Labille, Jean-Paul Ambrosi, Doriane Delanghe, and Patrick Raimbault
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2369–2384, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2369-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2369-2022, 2022
Short summary
Influence of warming and atmospheric circulation changes on multidecadal European flood variability
Stefan Brönnimann, Peter Stucki, Jörg Franke, Veronika Valler, Yuri Brugnara, Ralf Hand, Laura C. Slivinski, Gilbert P. Compo, Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Michel Lang, and Bettina Schaefli
Clim. Past, 18, 919–933, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-919-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-919-2022, 2022
Short summary
Estimation bayésienne des courbes de tarage et des incertitudes associées : application de la méthode BaRatin au Congo à Brazzaville
Jérôme Le Coz, Guy D. Moukandi N'kaya, Jean-Pierre Bricquet, Alain Laraque, and Benjamin Renard
Proc. IAHS, 384, 25–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-25-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-25-2021, 2021

Related subject area

Subject: Engineering Hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
Bayesian calibration of a flood simulator using binary flood extent observations
Mariano Balbi and David Charles Bonaventure Lallemant
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1089–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1089-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1089-2023, 2023
Short summary
Intercomparison of global reanalysis precipitation for flood risk modelling
Fergus McClean, Richard Dawson, and Chris Kilsby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 331–347, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-331-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-331-2023, 2023
Short summary
Seamless streamflow forecasting at daily to monthly scales: MuTHRE lets you have your cake and eat it too
David McInerney, Mark Thyer, Dmitri Kavetski, Richard Laugesen, Fitsum Woldemeskel, Narendra Tuteja, and George Kuczera
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5669–5683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5669-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5669-2022, 2022
Short summary
An uncertainty partition approach for inferring interactive hydrologic risks
Yurui Fan, Kai Huang, Guohe Huang, Yongping Li, and Feng Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4601–4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4601-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4601-2020, 2020
Predicting discharge capacity of vegetated compound channels: uncertainty and identifiability of one-dimensional process-based models
Adam Kiczko, Kaisa Västilä, Adam Kozioł, Janusz Kubrak, Elżbieta Kubrak, and Marcin Krukowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4135–4167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4135-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4135-2020, 2020
Short summary

Cited articles

Apel, H., Thieken, A. H., Merz, B., and Blöschl, G.: Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 295–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-295-2004, 2004. 
Benito, G., Lang, M., Barriendos, M., Llasat, M. C., Francés, F., Ouarda, T., Thorndycraft, V., Enzel, Y., Bardossy, A., Cœur, D., and Bobée, B.: Use of Systematic, Palaeoflood and Historical Data for the Improvement of Flood Risk Estimation. Review of Scientific Methods, Nat. Hazards, 31, 623–643, https://doi.org/10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000024895.48463.eb, 2004. 
Benson, M. A.: Use of historical data in flood-frequency analysis, Eos T. Am. Geophys. Un., 31, 3, 419–424, https://doi.org/10.1029/TR031i003p00419, 1950. 
Cunnane, C.: Unbiased plotting position – a review, J. Hydrol., 37, 205–222, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(78)90017-3, 1978. 
Download
Short summary
The proposed flood frequency model accounts for uncertainty in the perception threshold S and the starting date of the historical period. Using a 500-year-long case study, inclusion of historical floods reduces the uncertainty in flood quantiles, even when only the number of exceedances of S is known. Ignoring threshold uncertainty leads to underestimated flood quantile uncertainty. This underlines the value of using a comprehensive framework for uncertainty estimation.