Articles | Volume 28, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5031-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5031-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A comprehensive uncertainty framework for historical flood frequency analysis: a 500-year-long case study
Mathieu Lucas
UR RiverLy, INRAE, Villeurbanne, France
UR RiverLy, INRAE, Villeurbanne, France
Benjamin Renard
UR RECOVER, Aix Marseille Univ., INRAE, Aix-en-Provence, France
Jérôme Le Coz
UR RiverLy, INRAE, Villeurbanne, France
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Jessica Marggraf, Guillaume Dramais, Jérôme Le Coz, Blaise Calmel, Benoît Camenen, David J. Topping, William Santini, Gilles Pierrefeu, and François Lauters
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1243–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1243-2024, 2024
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Suspended-sand fluxes in rivers vary with time and space, complicating their measurement. The proposed method captures the vertical and lateral variations of suspended-sand concentration throughout a river cross-section. It merges water samples taken at various positions throughout the cross-section with high-resolution acoustic velocity measurements. This is the first method that includes a fully applicable uncertainty estimation; it can easily be applied to any other study sites.
Yves Tramblay, Patrick Arnaud, Guillaume Artigue, Michel Lang, Emmanuel Paquet, Luc Neppel, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2973–2987, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023, 2023
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Mediterranean floods are causing major damage, and recent studies have shown that, despite the increase in intense rainfall, there has been no increase in river floods. This study reveals that the seasonality of floods changed in the Mediterranean Basin during 1959–2021. There was also an increased frequency of floods linked to short episodes of intense rain, associated with a decrease in soil moisture. These changes need to be taken into consideration to adapt flood warning systems.
Hugo Lepage, Alexandra Gruat, Fabien Thollet, Jérôme Le Coz, Marina Coquery, Matthieu Masson, Aymeric Dabrin, Olivier Radakovitch, Jérôme Labille, Jean-Paul Ambrosi, Doriane Delanghe, and Patrick Raimbault
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2369–2384, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2369-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2369-2022, 2022
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The dataset contains concentrations and fluxes of suspended particle matter (SPM) and several particle-bound contaminants along the Rhône River downstream of Lake Geneva. These data allow us to understand the dynamics and origins. They show the impact of flood events which mainly contribute to a decrease in the contaminant concentrations while fluxes are significant. On the contrary, concentrations are higher during low flow periods probably due to the increase of organic matter.
Stefan Brönnimann, Peter Stucki, Jörg Franke, Veronika Valler, Yuri Brugnara, Ralf Hand, Laura C. Slivinski, Gilbert P. Compo, Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Michel Lang, and Bettina Schaefli
Clim. Past, 18, 919–933, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-919-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-919-2022, 2022
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Floods in Europe vary on time scales of several decades. Flood-rich and flood-poor periods alternate. Recently floods have again become more frequent. Long time series of peak stream flow, precipitation, and atmospheric variables reveal that until around 1980, these changes were mostly due to changes in atmospheric circulation. However, in recent decades the role of increasing atmospheric moisture due to climate warming has become more important and is now the main driver of flood changes.
Jérôme Le Coz, Guy D. Moukandi N'kaya, Jean-Pierre Bricquet, Alain Laraque, and Benjamin Renard
Proc. IAHS, 384, 25–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-25-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-25-2021, 2021
M. Boudou, B. Danière, and M. Lang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 161–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-161-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-161-2016, 2016
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This paper presents an appraisal of flood vulnerability of two French cities, Besançon and Moissac, which have been largely impacted by two ancient major floods (resp. in January 1910 and March 1930). An analysis of historical sources allows the mapping of land use and occupation within the flood extent of the two historical floods, both in past and present contexts. It gives an insight into the complexity of flood risk evolution, at a local scale.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
K. Kochanek, B. Renard, P. Arnaud, Y. Aubert, M. Lang, T. Cipriani, and E. Sauquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 295–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-295-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-295-2014, 2014
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Subject: Engineering Hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
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Seamless streamflow forecasting at daily to monthly scales: MuTHRE lets you have your cake and eat it too
An uncertainty partition approach for inferring interactive hydrologic risks
Predicting discharge capacity of vegetated compound channels: uncertainty and identifiability of one-dimensional process-based models
Uncertainty quantification of floodplain friction in hydrodynamic models
Developing a drought-monitoring index for the contiguous US using SMAP
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The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions
Why hydrological predictions should be evaluated using information theory
Spatial uncertainty assessment in modelling reference evapotranspiration at regional scale
Confidence intervals for the coefficient of L-variation in hydrological applications
Possibilistic uncertainty analysis of a conceptual model of snowmelt runoff
Mariano Balbi and David Charles Bonaventure Lallemant
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1089–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1089-2023, 2023
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We proposed a methodology to obtain useful and robust probabilistic predictions from computational flood simulators using satellite-borne flood extent observations. We developed a Bayesian framework to obtain the uncertainty in roughness parameters, in observations errors, and in simulator structural deficiencies. We found that it can yield improvements in predictions relative to current methodologies and can potentially lead to consistent ways of combining data from different sources.
Fergus McClean, Richard Dawson, and Chris Kilsby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 331–347, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-331-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-331-2023, 2023
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Reanalysis datasets are increasingly used to drive flood models, especially for continental and global analysis. We investigate the impact of using four reanalysis products on simulations of past flood events. All reanalysis products underestimated the number of buildings inundated, compared to a benchmark national dataset. These findings show that while global reanalyses provide a useful resource for flood modelling where no other data are available, they may underestimate impact in some cases.
David McInerney, Mark Thyer, Dmitri Kavetski, Richard Laugesen, Fitsum Woldemeskel, Narendra Tuteja, and George Kuczera
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5669–5683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5669-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5669-2022, 2022
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Streamflow forecasts a day to a month ahead are highly valuable for water resources management. Current practice often develops forecasts for specific lead times and aggregation timescales. In contrast, a single, seamless forecast can serve multiple lead times/timescales. This study shows seamless forecasts can match the performance of forecasts developed specifically at the monthly scale, while maintaining quality at other lead times. Hence, users need not sacrifice capability for performance.
Yurui Fan, Kai Huang, Guohe Huang, Yongping Li, and Feng Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4601–4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4601-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4601-2020, 2020
Adam Kiczko, Kaisa Västilä, Adam Kozioł, Janusz Kubrak, Elżbieta Kubrak, and Marcin Krukowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4135–4167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4135-2020, 2020
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The study compares the uncertainty of discharge curves for vegetated channels, calculated using several methods, including the simplest ones, based on the Manning formula and advanced approaches, providing a detailed physical representation of the channel flow processes. Parameters of each method were identified for the same data sets. The outcomes of the study include the widths of confidence intervals, showing which method was the most successful in explaining observations.
Guilherme Luiz Dalledonne, Rebekka Kopmann, and Thomas Brudy-Zippelius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3373–3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3373-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3373-2019, 2019
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This study presents how the concept of uncertainty quantification can be applied to river engineering problems and how important it is to understand the limitations of numerical models from a probabilistic point of view. We investigated floodplain friction formulations using different uncertainty quantification methods and estimated their contribution in the final results. The analysis of uncertainties is planned to be integrated in future projects and also extended to more complex scenarios.
Sara Sadri, Eric F. Wood, and Ming Pan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6611–6626, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6611-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6611-2018, 2018
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Of particular interest to NASA's SMAP-based agricultural applications is a monitoring product that assesses near-surface soil moisture in terms of probability percentiles for dry and wet conditions. However, the short SMAP record length poses a statistical challenge for the meaningful assessment of its indices. This study presents initial insights about using SMAP Level 3 and Level 4 for monitoring drought and pluvial regions with a first application over the contiguous United States (CONUS).
Joanne A. Waller, Javier García-Pintado, David C. Mason, Sarah L. Dance, and Nancy K. Nichols
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3983–3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3983-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3983-2018, 2018
N. V. Manh, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3039–3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3039-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3039-2013, 2013
L. Altarejos-García, M. L. Martínez-Chenoll, I. Escuder-Bueno, and A. Serrano-Lombillo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1895–1914, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1895-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1895-2012, 2012
C. Z. Li, L. Zhang, H. Wang, Y. Q. Zhang, F. L. Yu, and D. H. Yan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1239–1254, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1239-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1239-2012, 2012
S. V. Weijs, G. Schoups, and N. van de Giesen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2545–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2545-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2545-2010, 2010
G. Buttafuoco, T. Caloiero, and R. Coscarelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2319–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2319-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2319-2010, 2010
A. Viglione
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2229–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2229-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2229-2010, 2010
A. P. Jacquin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1681–1695, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1681-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1681-2010, 2010
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Short summary
The proposed flood frequency model accounts for uncertainty in the perception threshold S and the starting date of the historical period. Using a 500-year-long case study, inclusion of historical floods reduces the uncertainty in flood quantiles, even when only the number of exceedances of S is known. Ignoring threshold uncertainty leads to underestimated flood quantile uncertainty. This underlines the value of using a comprehensive framework for uncertainty estimation.
The proposed flood frequency model accounts for uncertainty in the perception threshold S and...