Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 28, issue 22
Articles | Volume 28, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5031-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5031-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 28, issue 22
Research article
 | 
26 Nov 2024
Research article |  | 26 Nov 2024

A comprehensive uncertainty framework for historical flood frequency analysis: a 500-year-long case study

Mathieu Lucas, Michel Lang, Benjamin Renard, and Jérôme Le Coz

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Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
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Short summary
The proposed flood frequency model accounts for uncertainty in the perception threshold S and the starting date of the historical period. Using a 500-year-long case study, inclusion of historical floods reduces the uncertainty in flood quantiles, even when only the number of exceedances of S is known. Ignoring threshold uncertainty leads to underestimated flood quantile uncertainty. This underlines the value of using a comprehensive framework for uncertainty estimation.
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