Articles | Volume 28, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4427-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4427-2024
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
08 Oct 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 08 Oct 2024

Characterizing nonlinear, nonstationary, and heterogeneous hydrologic behavior using ensemble rainfall–runoff analysis (ERRA): proof of concept

James W. Kirchner

Related authors

Bedrock geology controls on new water fractions and catchment functioning in contrasted nested catchments
Guilhem Türk, Christoph J. Gey, Bernd R. Schöne, Marius G. Floriancic, James W. Kirchner, Loic Leonard, Laurent Gourdol, Richard Keim, and Laurent Pfister
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1530,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1530, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Data-Driven Estimation of the hydrologic response via Generalized Additive Models
Quentin Duchemin, Maria Grazia Zanoni, Marius G. Floriancic, Hansjörg Seybold, Guillaume Obozinski, James W. Kirchner, and Paolo Benettin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1591,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1591, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Quantifying controls on rapid and delayed runoff response in double-peak hydrographs using Ensemble Rainfall-Runoff Analysis (ERRA)
Huibin Gao, Laurent Pfister, and James W. Kirchner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-613,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-613, 2025
Short summary
Climatic, topographic, and groundwater controls on runoff response to precipitation: evidence from a large-sample data set
Zahra Eslami, Hansjörg Seybold, and James W. Kirchner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-35,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-35, 2025
Short summary
Catchment hydrological response and transport are affected differently by precipitation intensity and antecedent wetness
Julia L. A. Knapp, Wouter R. Berghuijs, Marius G. Floriancic, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-371,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-371, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Theory development
HESS Opinions: Floods and droughts – are land use, soil management, and landscape hydrology more significant drivers than increasing CO2?
Karl Auerswald, Juergen Geist, John N. Quinton, and Peter Fiener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2185–2200, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2185-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2185-2025, 2025
Short summary
Causal relationships of vegetation productivity with root zone water availability and atmospheric dryness at the catchment scale
Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Hong-Yi Li, Mingjie Shi, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1847–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1847-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1847-2025, 2025
Short summary
Annual memory in the terrestrial water cycle
Wouter R. Berghuijs, Ross A. Woods, Bailey J. Anderson, Anna Luisa Hemshorn de Sánchez, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1319–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1319-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1319-2025, 2025
Short summary
Can system dynamics explain long-term hydrological behaviors? The role of endogenous linking structure
Xinyao Zhou, Zhuping Sheng, Kiril Manevski, Rongtian Zhao, Qingzhou Zhang, Yanmin Yang, Shumin Han, Jinghong Liu, and Yonghui Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 159–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-159-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-159-2025, 2025
Short summary
Catchment hydrological response and transport are affected differently by precipitation intensity and antecedent wetness
Julia L. A. Knapp, Wouter R. Berghuijs, Marius G. Floriancic, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-371,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-371, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary

Cited articles

Amorocho, J.: The nonlinear prediction problem in the study of the runoff cycle, Water Resour. Res., 3, 861–880, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR003i003p00861, 1967. 
Amorocho, J. and Brandstetter, A.: Determination of nonlinear functional response functions in rainfall–runoff processes, Water Resour. Res., 7, 1087–1101, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR007i005p01087, 1971. 
Benettin, P., Kirchner, J., Rinaldo, A., and Botter, G.: Modeling chloride transport using travel-time distributions at Plynlimon, Wales, Water Resour. Res., 51, 3259–3276, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016600, 2015a. 
Benettin, P., Rinaldo, A., and Botter, G.: Tracking residence times in hydrological systems: forward and backward formulations, Hydrol. Process., 29, 5203–5213, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10513, 2015b. 
Benettin, P., Rodriguez, N. B., Sprenger, M., Kim, M., Klaus, J., Harman, C. J., van der Velde, Y., Hrachowitz, M., Botter, G., McGuire, K. J., Kirchner, J. W., Rinaldo, A., and McDonnell, J. J.: Transit time estimation in catchments: Recent developments and future directions, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2022WR033096, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR033096, 2022. 
Download
Executive editor
A rigorous analytical hydrological model for Ensemble Rainfall-Runoff Analysis (ERRA) of catchments. The paper gives the concepts, mathematical details and several proof-of-concepts. ERRA was designed as a tool for iterative and exploration of hydrological data, through trial and error with analyses of varying degrees of complexity. The broad geosciences community could benefit from this statistical approach. The discussion cites some good examples of applications possible in hydrology, but potential also in other related fields as well.
Short summary
Here, I present a new way to quantify how streamflow responds to rainfall across a range of timescales. This approach can estimate how different rainfall intensities affect streamflow.  It can also quantify how runoff response to rainfall varies, depending on how wet the landscape already is before the rain falls. This may help us to understand processes and landscape properties that regulate streamflow and to assess the susceptibility of different landscapes to flooding.
Share