Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 28, issue 19
Articles | Volume 28, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4427-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4427-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 28, issue 19
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
08 Oct 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 08 Oct 2024

Characterizing nonlinear, nonstationary, and heterogeneous hydrologic behavior using ensemble rainfall–runoff analysis (ERRA): proof of concept

James W. Kirchner

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Cited articles

Amorocho, J.: The nonlinear prediction problem in the study of the runoff cycle, Water Resour. Res., 3, 861–880, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR003i003p00861, 1967. 
Amorocho, J. and Brandstetter, A.: Determination of nonlinear functional response functions in rainfall–runoff processes, Water Resour. Res., 7, 1087–1101, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR007i005p01087, 1971. 
Benettin, P., Kirchner, J., Rinaldo, A., and Botter, G.: Modeling chloride transport using travel-time distributions at Plynlimon, Wales, Water Resour. Res., 51, 3259–3276, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016600, 2015a. 
Benettin, P., Rinaldo, A., and Botter, G.: Tracking residence times in hydrological systems: forward and backward formulations, Hydrol. Process., 29, 5203–5213, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10513, 2015b. 
Benettin, P., Rodriguez, N. B., Sprenger, M., Kim, M., Klaus, J., Harman, C. J., van der Velde, Y., Hrachowitz, M., Botter, G., McGuire, K. J., Kirchner, J. W., Rinaldo, A., and McDonnell, J. J.: Transit time estimation in catchments: Recent developments and future directions, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2022WR033096, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR033096, 2022. 
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A rigorous analytical hydrological model for Ensemble Rainfall-Runoff Analysis (ERRA) of catchments. The paper gives the concepts, mathematical details and several proof-of-concepts. ERRA was designed as a tool for iterative and exploration of hydrological data, through trial and error with analyses of varying degrees of complexity. The broad geosciences community could benefit from this statistical approach. The discussion cites some good examples of applications possible in hydrology, but potential also in other related fields as well.
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Here, I present a new way to quantify how streamflow responds to rainfall across a range of timescales. This approach can estimate how different rainfall intensities affect streamflow.  It can also quantify how runoff response to rainfall varies, depending on how wet the landscape already is before the rain falls. This may help us to understand processes and landscape properties that regulate streamflow and to assess the susceptibility of different landscapes to flooding.
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