Articles | Volume 28, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-303-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-303-2024
Research article
 | 
18 Jan 2024
Research article |  | 18 Jan 2024

An ensemble-based approach for pumping optimization in an island aquifer considering parameter, observation and climate uncertainty

Cécile Coulon, Jeremy T. White, Alexandre Pryet, Laura Gatel, and Jean-Michel Lemieux

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Cited articles

Al Atawneh, D., Cartwright, N., and Bertone, E.: Climate change and its impact on the projected values of groundwater recharge: A review, J. Hydrol., 601, 126602, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126602, 2021. 
Anderson, M. P., Woessner, W. W., and Hunt, R. J.: Applied groundwater modeling: simulation of flow and advective transport, Academic press, Elsevier, ISBN 978-0-12-058103-0, 2015. 
Bakker, M., Schaars, F., Hughes, J. D., Langevin, C. D., and Dausman, A. M.: Documentation of the seawater intrusion (SWI2) package for MODFLOW, US Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, Book, 6, https://doi.org/10.3133/tm6A46, 2013. 
Barnett, R. L., Bernatchez, P., Garneau, M., and Juneau, M. N.: Reconstructing late Holocene relative sea-level changes at the Magdalen Islands (Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada) using multi-proxy analyses, J. Quaternary Sci., 32, 380–395, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.2931, 2017. 
Bayer, P., Bürger, C. M., and Finkel, M.: Computationally efficient stochastic optimization using multiple realizations, Adv. Water Resour., 31, 399–417, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2007.09.004, 2008. 
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Short summary
In coastal areas, groundwater managers require information on the risk of well salinization associated with various pumping scenarios. We developed a modeling approach to identify the optimal tradeoff between groundwater pumping and probability of salinization, considering model parameter and historical observation uncertainty as well as uncertainty in sea level and recharge projections. The workflow can be implemented in a wide range of coastal settings.