Articles | Volume 28, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-303-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-303-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 18 Jan 2024
| 18 Jan 2024
An ensemble-based approach for pumping optimization in an island aquifer considering parameter, observation and climate uncertainty
Cécile Coulon
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Département de géologie et de génie géologique, Université Laval, Québec (Quebec), G1V 0A6, Canada
Centre québécois de recherche sur l'eau, Québec (Quebec), G1V 0A6, Canada
Centre d'études nordiques, Université Laval, Québec (Quebec), G1V 0A6, Canada
current address: INTERA SAS, Limonest, France
Jeremy T. White
INTERA Geosciences Pty Ltd, Perth, Australia
Alexandre Pryet
Département de géologie et de génie géologique, Université Laval, Québec (Quebec), G1V 0A6, Canada
EPOC (UMR 5805), CNRS, Univ. Bordeaux & Bordeaux INP, France
Laura Gatel
Département de géologie et de génie géologique, Université Laval, Québec (Quebec), G1V 0A6, Canada
Centre québécois de recherche sur l'eau, Québec (Quebec), G1V 0A6, Canada
Jean-Michel Lemieux
Département de géologie et de génie géologique, Université Laval, Québec (Quebec), G1V 0A6, Canada
Centre québécois de recherche sur l'eau, Québec (Quebec), G1V 0A6, Canada
Centre d'études nordiques, Université Laval, Québec (Quebec), G1V 0A6, Canada
Related authors
No articles found.
Raoul Alexander Collenteur, Ezra Haaf, Mark Bakker, Tanja Liesch, Andreas Wunsch, Jenny Soonthornrangsan, Jeremy White, Nick Martin, Rui Hugman, Michael Fienen, Ed de Sousa, Didier Vanden Berghe, Xinyang Fan, Tim Peterson, Janis Bikše, Antoine Di Ciacca, Xinyue Wang, Yang Zheng, Maximilian Nölscher, Julian Koch, Raphael Schneider, Nikolas Benavides Höglund, Sivarama Krishna Reddy Chidepudi, Abel Henriot, Nicolas Massei, Abderrahim Jardani, Max Gustav Rudolph, Amir Rouhani, Jaime Gómez-Hernández, Seifeddine Jomaa, Anna Pölz, Tim Franken, Morteza Behbooei, Jimmy Lin, Bryan Tolson, and Rojin Meysami
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-111, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We present the results of the 2022 groundwater modeling challenge, where 15 teams applied data-driven models to simulate hydraulic heads. 3 groups of models were identified: lumped models, machine learning models, and deep learning models. For all wells, reasonable performance was obtained by at least 1 team from group. There was not 1 team that performed best for all wells. In conclusion, the challenge was a successful initiative to compare different models and learn from each other.
Salam A. Abbas, Ryan T. Bailey, Jeremy T. White, Jeffrey G. Arnold, Michael J. White, Natalja Čerkasova, and Jungang Gao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 21–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-21-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-21-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research highlights.
1. Implemented groundwater module (gwflow) into SWAT+ for four watersheds with different unique hydrologic features across the United States.
2. Presented methods for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation for coupled models.
3. Sensitivity analysis for streamflow and groundwater head conducted using Morris method.
4. Uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation performed using an iterative ensemble smoother within the PEST framework.
Related subject area
Subject: Groundwater hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Stochastic approaches
A comprehensive framework for stochastic calibration and sensitivity analysis of large-scale groundwater models
Towards a community-wide effort for benchmarking in subsurface hydrological inversion: benchmarking cases, high-fidelity reference solutions, procedure and a first comparison
Improving understanding of groundwater flow in an alpine karst system by reconstructing its geologic history using conduit network model ensembles
The effects of rain and evapotranspiration statistics on groundwater recharge estimations for semi-arid environments
Characterization of the highly fractured zone at the Grimsel Test Site based on hydraulic tomography
Influence of low-frequency variability on high and low groundwater levels: example of aquifers in the Paris Basin
Technical note: Using long short-term memory models to fill data gaps in hydrological monitoring networks
Technical note: Discharge response of a confined aquifer with variable thickness to temporal, nonstationary, random recharge processes
Data assimilation with multiple types of observation boreholes via the ensemble Kalman filter embedded within stochastic moment equations
A field evidence model: how to predict transport in heterogeneous aquifers at low investigation level
3D multiple-point statistics simulations of the Roussillon Continental Pliocene aquifer using DeeSse
Technical Note: Improved sampling of behavioral subsurface flow model parameters using active subspaces
Efficient screening of groundwater head monitoring data for anthropogenic effects and measurement errors
Regionalization with hierarchical hydrologic similarity and ex situ data in the context of groundwater recharge estimation at ungauged watersheds
Long-term groundwater recharge rates across India by in situ measurements
Stochastic hydrogeology's biggest hurdles analyzed and its big blind spot
Contributions to uncertainty related to hydrostratigraphic modeling using multiple-point statistics
Recent trends of groundwater temperatures in Austria
Moment-based metrics for global sensitivity analysis of hydrological systems
Multiple-point statistical simulation for hydrogeological models: 3-D training image development and conditioning strategies
Characterizing the spatiotemporal variability of groundwater levels of alluvial aquifers in different settings using drought indices
Testing the use of standardised indices and GRACE satellite data to estimate the European 2015 groundwater drought in near-real time
Modeling 3-D permeability distribution in alluvial fans using facies architecture and geophysical acquisitions
A Bayesian consistent dual ensemble Kalman filter for state-parameter estimation in subsurface hydrology
Technical note: Application of artificial neural networks in groundwater table forecasting – a case study in a Singapore swamp forest
Regional analysis of groundwater droughts using hydrograph classification
Scalable statistics of correlated random variables and extremes applied to deep borehole porosities
Observed groundwater temperature response to recent climate change
The effect of training image and secondary data integration with multiple-point geostatistics in groundwater modelling
Is high-resolution inverse characterization of heterogeneous river bed hydraulic conductivities needed and possible?
Investigation of solute transport in nonstationary unsaturated flow fields
Extended power-law scaling of heavy-tailed random air-permeability fields in fractured and sedimentary rocks
Stochastic analysis of field-scale heat advection in heterogeneous aquifers
Groundwater flow inverse modeling in non-MultiGaussian media: performance assessment of the normal-score Ensemble Kalman Filter
Extended power-law scaling of air permeabilities measured on a block of tuff
Quantifying flow and remediation zone uncertainties for partially opened wells in heterogeneous aquifers
Bayesian approach for three-dimensional aquifer characterization at the Hanford 300 Area
Spectral approach to seawater intrusion in heterogeneous coastal aquifers
Andrea Manzoni, Giovanni Michele Porta, Laura Guadagnini, Alberto Guadagnini, and Monica Riva
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2661–2682, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2661-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a comprehensive methodology that combines multi-objective optimization, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and 3D groundwater modeling to analyze subsurface flow dynamics across large-scale domains. In this way, we effectively consider the inherent uncertainty associated with subsurface system characterizations and their interactions with surface waterbodies. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach by applying it to the largest groundwater system in Italy.
Teng Xu, Sinan Xiao, Sebastian Reuschen, Nils Wildt, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Wolfgang Nowak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-60, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a set of benchmarking scenarios for geostatistical inversion, and we encourage the scientific community to use these to compare their newly developed methods. To facilitate transparent, appropriate, and uncertainty-aware comparison of novel methods, we also provide accurate reference solutions, a high-end reference algorithm, and a diverse set of benchmarking metrics, all of which are publicly available. With this, we seek to foster more targeted and transparent progress in the field.
Chloé Fandel, Ty Ferré, François Miville, Philippe Renard, and Nico Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4205–4215, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4205-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
From the surface, it is hard to tell where underground cave systems are located. We developed a computer model to create maps of the probable cave network in an area, based on the geologic setting. We then applied our approach in reverse: in a region where an old cave network was mapped, we used modeling to test what the geologic setting might have been like when the caves formed. This is useful because understanding past cave formation can help us predict where unmapped caves are located today.
Tuvia Turkeltaub and Golan Bel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 289–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater is an essential resource affected by climate conditions and anthropogenic activities. Estimations of groundwater recharge under current and future climate conditions require long-term climate records that are scarce. Different methods to synthesize climate data, based on observations, are used to estimate groundwater recharge. In terms of groundwater recharge estimation, the best synthesis method is based on the daily statistics corrected to match the observed monthly statistics.
Lisa Maria Ringel, Mohammadreza Jalali, and Peter Bayer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6443–6455, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6443-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6443-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Fractured rocks host a class of aquifers that serve as major freshwater resources worldwide. This work is dedicated to resolving the three-dimensional hydraulic and structural properties of fractured rock. For this purpose, hydraulic tomography experiments at the Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland are utilized, and the discrete fracture network is inverted. The comparison of the inversion results with independent findings from other studies demonstrates the validity of the approach.
Lisa Baulon, Nicolas Massei, Delphine Allier, Matthieu Fournier, and Hélène Bessiere
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2829–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2829-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aquifers often act as low-pass filters, dampening high-frequency (intra-annual) and amplifying low-frequency (LFV, multi-annual to multidecadal) variabilities originating from climate variability. By processing groundwater level signals, we show the key role of LFV in the occurrence of groundwater extremes (GWEs). Results highlight how changes in LFV may impact future GWEs as well as the importance of correct representation of LFV in general circulation model outputs for GWE projection.
Huiying Ren, Erol Cromwell, Ben Kravitz, and Xingyuan Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1727–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1727-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1727-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We used a deep learning method called long short-term memory (LSTM) to fill gaps in data collected by hydrologic monitoring networks. LSTM accounted for correlations in space and time and nonlinear trends in data. Compared to a traditional regression-based time-series method, LSTM performed comparably when filling gaps in data with smooth patterns, while it better captured highly dynamic patterns in data. Capturing such dynamics is critical for understanding dynamic complex system behaviors.
Ching-Min Chang, Chuen-Fa Ni, We-Ci Li, Chi-Ping Lin, and I-Hsien Lee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2387–2397, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2387-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2387-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A transfer function to describe the variation in the integrated specific discharge in response to the temporal variation in the rainfall event in the frequency domain is developed. It can be used to quantify the variability in the integrated discharge field induced by the variation in rainfall field or to simulate the discharge response of the system to any varying rainfall input, at any time resolution, using the convolution model.
Chuan-An Xia, Xiaodong Luo, Bill X. Hu, Monica Riva, and Alberto Guadagnini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1689–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1689-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1689-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Our study shows that (i) monitoring wells installed with packers provide the (overall) best conductivity estimates; (ii) conductivity estimates anchored on information from partially and fully screened wells are of similar quality; (iii) inflation of the measurement-error covariance matrix can improve conductivity estimates when a simplified flow model is adopted; and (iv) when compared to the MC-based EnKF, the MEs-based EnKF can efficiently and accurately estimate conductivity and head fields.
Alraune Zech, Peter Dietrich, Sabine Attinger, and Georg Teutsch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1-2021, 2021
Valentin Dall'Alba, Philippe Renard, Julien Straubhaar, Benoit Issautier, Cédric Duvail, and Yvan Caballero
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4997–5013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4997-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4997-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Due to climate and population evolution, increased pressure is put on the groundwater resource, which calls for better understanding and models. In this paper, we describe a novel workflow to model the geological heterogeneity of coastal aquifers and apply it to the Roussillon plain (southern France). The main strength of the workflow is its capability to model aquifer heterogeneity when only sparse data are available while honoring the local geological trends and quantifying uncertainty.
Daniel Erdal and Olaf A. Cirpka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4567–4574, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4567-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4567-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing model sensitivities with ensemble-based methods can be prohibitively expensive when large parts of the plausible parameter space result in model simulations with nonrealistic results. In a previous work, we used the method of active subspaces to create a proxy model with the purpose of filtering out such unrealistic runs at low cost. This work details a notable improvement in the efficiency of the original sampling scheme, without loss of accuracy.
Christian Lehr and Gunnar Lischeid
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-501-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-501-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A screening method for the fast identification of well-specific peculiarities in hydrographs of groundwater head monitoring networks is suggested and tested. The only information required is a set of time series of groundwater head readings all measured at the same instants of time. The results were used to check the data for measurement errors and to identify wells with possible anthropogenic influence.
Ching-Fu Chang and Yoram Rubin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2417–2438, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2417-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2417-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates of hydrologic responses at ungauged watersheds can be conditioned on information transferred from other gauged watersheds. This paper presents an approach to consider the variable controls on information transfer among watersheds under different conditions while at the same time featuring uncertainty representation in both the model structure and the model parameters.
Soumendra N. Bhanja, Abhijit Mukherjee, R. Rangarajan, Bridget R. Scanlon, Pragnaditya Malakar, and Shubha Verma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-711-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-711-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater depletion in India has been a much-debated issue in recent years. Here we investigate long-term, spatiotemporal variation in prevailing groundwater recharge rates across India. Groundwater recharge rates have been estimated based on field-scale groundwater-level measurements and the tracer injection approach; recharge rates from the two estimates compared favorably. The role of precipitation in controlling groundwater recharge is studied.
Yoram Rubin, Ching-Fu Chang, Jiancong Chen, Karina Cucchi, Bradley Harken, Falk Heße, and Heather Savoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5675–5695, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5675-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5675-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper addresses questions related to the adoption of stochastic methods in hydrogeology, looking at factors such as environmental regulations, financial incentives, higher education, and the collective feedback loop involving these factors. We show that stochastic hydrogeology's blind spot is in focusing on risk while ignoring uncertainty, to the detriment of its potential clients. The imbalance between the treatments of risk and uncertainty is shown to be common to multiple disciplines.
Adrian A. S. Barfod, Troels N. Vilhelmsen, Flemming Jørgensen, Anders V. Christiansen, Anne-Sophie Høyer, Julien Straubhaar, and Ingelise Møller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5485–5508, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5485-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5485-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The focus of this study is on the uncertainty related to using multiple-point statistics (MPS) for stochastic modeling of the upper 200 m of the subsurface. The main research goal is to showcase how MPS methods can be used on real-world hydrogeophysical data and show how the uncertainty related to changing the underlying MPS setup propagates into the finalized 3-D subsurface models.
Susanne A. Benz, Peter Bayer, Gerfried Winkler, and Philipp Blum
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3143–3154, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3143-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3143-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges modern society faces. Increasing temperatures are observed both above ground and, as discussed here, in the groundwater – the source of most drinking water. Within Austria average temperature increased by 0.7 °C over the past 20 years, with an increase of more than 3 °C in some wells and temperature decrease in others. However, these extreme changes can be linked to local events such as the construction of a new drinking water supply.
Aronne Dell'Oca, Monica Riva, and Alberto Guadagnini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6219–6234, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6219-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6219-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We propose new metrics to assist global sensitivity analysis of Earth systems. Our approach allows assessing the impact of model parameters on the first four statistical moments of a target model output, allowing us to ascertain which parameters can affect some moments of the model output pdf while being uninfluential to others. Our approach is fully compatible with analysis in the context of model complexity reduction, design of experiment, uncertainty quantification and risk assessment.
Anne-Sophie Høyer, Giulio Vignoli, Thomas Mejer Hansen, Le Thanh Vu, Donald A. Keefer, and Flemming Jørgensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6069–6089, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6069-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6069-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel approach for 3-D geostatistical simulations. It includes practical strategies for the development of realistic 3-D training images and for incorporating the diverse geological and geophysical inputs together with their uncertainty levels (due to measurement inaccuracies and scale mismatch). Inputs consist of well logs, seismics, and an existing 3-D geomodel. The simulation domain (45 million voxels) coincides with the Miocene unit over 2810 km2 across the Danish–German border.
Johannes Christoph Haas and Steffen Birk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2421–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2421-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2421-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the variability of groundwater levels within an Alpine river valley is more strongly affected by human impacts on rivers than by extreme events in precipitation. The influence of precipitation is found to be more pronounced in the shallow wells of the Alpine foreland. Groundwater levels, river stages and precipitation behave more similar under drought than under flood conditions and generally exhibit a tendency towards more similar behavior in the most recent decade.
Anne F. Van Loon, Rohini Kumar, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1947–1971, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1947-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1947-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Summer 2015 was extremely dry in Europe, hampering groundwater supply to irrigation and drinking water. For effective management, the groundwater situation should be monitored in real time, but data are not available. We tested two methods to estimate groundwater in near-real time, based on satellite data and using the relationship between rainfall and historic groundwater levels. The second method gave a good spatially variable representation of the 2015 groundwater drought in Europe.
Lin Zhu, Huili Gong, Zhenxue Dai, Gaoxuan Guo, and Pietro Teatini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 721–733, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-721-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-721-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a method to characterize the distribution and variance of the hydraulic conductivity k in a multiple-zone alluvial fan by fusing multiple-source data. Consistently with the scales of the sedimentary transport energy, the k variance of the various facies decreases from the upper to the lower portion along the flow direction. The 3-D distribution of k is consistent with that of the facies. The potentialities of the proposed approach are tested on the Chaobai River megafan, China.
Boujemaa Ait-El-Fquih, Mohamad El Gharamti, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3289–3307, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3289-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3289-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We derive a new dual ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for state-parameter estimation. The derivation is based on the one-step-ahead smoothing formulation, and unlike the standard dual EnKF, it is consistent with the Bayesian formulation of the state-parameter estimation problem and uses the observations in both state smoothing and forecast. This is shown to enhance the performance and robustness of the dual EnKF in experiments conducted with a two-dimensional synthetic groundwater aquifer model.
Yabin Sun, Dadiyorto Wendi, Dong Eon Kim, and Shie-Yui Liong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1405–1412, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1405-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1405-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict the groundwater table variations in a tropical wetland in Singapore. Surrounding reservoir levels and rainfall are selected as ANN inputs. The limited number of inputs eliminates the data-demanding restrictions inherent in the physical-based numerical models. The forecast is made at 4 locations with 3 leading times up to 7 days. The ANN forecast shows promising accuracy with decreasing performance when leading time progresses.
J. P. Bloomfield, B. P. Marchant, S. H. Bricker, and R. B. Morgan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4327–4344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4327-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4327-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the design of drought monitoring networks and water resource management during episodes of drought, there is a need for a better understanding of spatial variations in the response of aquifers to major meteorological droughts. This paper is the first to describe a suite of methods to quantify such variations. Using an analysis of groundwater level data for a case study from the UK, the influence of catchment characteristics on the varied response of groundwater to droughts is explored
A. Guadagnini, S. P. Neuman, T. Nan, M. Riva, and C. L. Winter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 729–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-729-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-729-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Previously we have shown that many earth-system and other variables can be viewed as samples from scale mixtures of truncated fractional Brownian motion or fractional Gaussian noise. Here we study statistical scaling of extreme absolute increments associated with such samples. As a real example we analyze neutron porosities from deep boreholes in diverse depositional units. Phenomena we uncover are relevant to the analysis of fluid flow and solute transport in complex hydrogeologic environments.
K. Menberg, P. Blum, B. L. Kurylyk, and P. Bayer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4453–4466, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4453-2014, 2014
X. L. He, T. O. Sonnenborg, F. Jørgensen, and K. H. Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2943–2954, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2943-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2943-2014, 2014
W. Kurtz, H.-J. Hendricks Franssen, P. Brunner, and H. Vereecken
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3795–3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3795-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3795-2013, 2013
C.-M. Chang and H.-D. Yeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4049–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4049-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4049-2012, 2012
A. Guadagnini, M. Riva, and S. P. Neuman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3249–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3249-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3249-2012, 2012
C.-M. Chang and H.-D. Yeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 641–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-641-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-641-2012, 2012
L. Li, H. Zhou, H. J. Hendricks Franssen, and J. J. Gómez-Hernández
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 573–590, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-573-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-573-2012, 2012
M. Siena, A. Guadagnini, M. Riva, and S. P. Neuman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 29–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-29-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-29-2012, 2012
C.-F. Ni, C.-P. Lin, S.-G. Li, and J.-S. Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2291–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2291-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2291-2011, 2011
H. Murakami, X. Chen, M. S. Hahn, Y. Liu, M. L. Rockhold, V. R. Vermeul, J. M. Zachara, and Y. Rubin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1989–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1989-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1989-2010, 2010
C.-M. Chang and H.-D. Yeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 719–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-719-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-719-2010, 2010
Cited articles
Al Atawneh, D., Cartwright, N., and Bertone, E.: Climate change and its impact on the projected values of groundwater recharge: A review, J. Hydrol., 601, 126602, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126602, 2021.
Anderson, M. P., Woessner, W. W., and Hunt, R. J.: Applied groundwater modeling: simulation of flow and advective transport, Academic press, Elsevier, ISBN 978-0-12-058103-0, 2015.
Bakker, M., Schaars, F., Hughes, J. D., Langevin, C. D., and Dausman, A. M.: Documentation of the seawater intrusion (SWI2) package for MODFLOW, US Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, Book, 6, https://doi.org/10.3133/tm6A46, 2013.
Barnett, R. L., Bernatchez, P., Garneau, M., and Juneau, M. N.: Reconstructing late Holocene relative sea-level changes at the Magdalen Islands (Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada) using multi-proxy analyses, J. Quaternary Sci., 32, 380–395, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.2931, 2017.
Bayer, P., Bürger, C. M., and Finkel, M.: Computationally efficient stochastic optimization using multiple realizations, Adv. Water Resour., 31, 399–417, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2007.09.004, 2008.
Bayer, P., de Paly, M., and Bürger, C. M.: Optimization of high-reliability-based hydrological design problems by robust automatic sampling of critical model realizations, Water Resour. Res., 46, W05504, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009wr008081, 2010.
Borgomeo, E., Mortazavi-Naeini, M., Hall, J. W., and Guillod, B. P.: Risk, Robustness and Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty, Earth's Future, 6, 468–487, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ef000730, 2018.
Charron, I.: A Guidebook on Climate Scenarios: Using Climate Information to Guide Adaptation Research and Decisions, 2016 edn., Ouranos, 94 pp., ISBN 978-2-923292-21-2, 2016.
Chen, Y. and Oliver, D. S.: Levenberg–Marquardt forms of the iterative ensemble smoother for efficient history matching and uncertainty quantification, Computat. Geosci., 17, 689–703, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10596-013-9351-5, 2013.
Christelis, V. and Mantoglou, A.: Pumping optimization of coastal aquifers using seawater intrusion models of variable-fidelity and evolutionary algorithms, Water Resour. Manage., 33, 555–568, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2116-0, 2018.
Coulon, C., Pryet, A., Lemieux, J.-M., Yrro, B. J. F., Bouchedda, A., Gloaguen, E., Comte, J.-C., Dupuis, J. C., and Banton, O.: A framework for parameter estimation using sharp-interface seawater intrusion models, J. Hydrol., 600, 126509, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126509, 2021.
Coulon, C., Lemieux, J. M., Pryet, A., Bayer, P., Young, N. L., and Molson, J.: Pumping Optimization under Uncertainty in an Island Freshwater Lens using a Sharp-Interface Seawater Intrusion Model, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2021WR031793, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031793, 2022.
Coulon, C., White, J. T., Pryet, A., Gatel, L., and Lemieux, J.-M.: Scripts and files for An ensemble-based approach for pumping optimization in an island aquifer considering parameter, observation and climate uncertainty, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7574457, Zenodo [code], 2023.
Deb, K., Pratap, A., Agarwal, S., and Meyarivan, T.: A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm: NSGA-II, IEEE T. Evolut. Comput., 6, 182–197, https://doi.org/10.1109/4235.996017, 2002.
Deb, K., Padmanabhan, D., Gupta, S., and Mall, A. K.: Reliability-based multi-objective optimization using evolutionary algorithms, International Conference on Evolutionary Multi-Criterion Optimization, 66–80, Matsushima, Japan, 5–8 March 2007, IBSN 978-3-540-70927-5, 2007.
Dey, S. and Prakash, O.: Coupled sharp-interface and density-dependent model for simultaneous optimization of production well locations and pumping in coastal aquifer, Water Resour. Manage., 36, 2327–2341, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03145-w, 2022.
Doherty, J.: Ground water model calibration using pilot points and regularization, Groundwater, 41, 170–177, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6584.2003.tb02580.x, 2003.
Doherty, J. and Christensen, S.: Use of paired simple and complex models to reduce predictive bias and quantify uncertainty, Water Resour. Res., 47, W12534, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010763, 2011.
Fienen, M. N. and Bakker, M.: HESS Opinions: Repeatable research: what hydrologists can learn from the Duke cancer research scandal, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3739–3743, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3739-2016, 2016.
Fienen, M. N., Corson-Dosch, N. T., White, J. T., Leaf, A. T., and Hunt, R. J.: Risk-Based Wellhead Protection Decision Support: A Repeatable Workflow Approach, Ground Water, 60, 71–86, https://doi.org/10.1111/gwat.13129, 2022.
Han, Z., Lu, W., Fan, Y., Xu, J., and Lin, J.: Surrogate-Based Stochastic Multiobjective Optimization for Coastal Aquifer Management under Parameter Uncertainty, Water Resour. Manage., 35, 1479–1497, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-021-02796-5, 2021.
Harbaugh, A. W.: MODFLOW-2005, the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model – the Ground-Water Flow Process: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods 6-A16, 2005.
Harbaugh, A. W., Langevin, C. D., Hughes, J. D., Niswonger, R. N., and Konikow, L. F.: MODFLOW-2005 version 1.12.00, the U.S. Geological Survey modular groundwater model: U.S. Geological Survey Software Release, 3 February 2017, https://doi.org/10.5066/F7RF5S7G, 2017.
James, T. S., Robin, C., Henton, J. A., and Craymer, M.: Relative sea-level projections for Canada based on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and the NAD83v70VG national crustal velocity model, Geological Survey of Canada, https://doi.org/10.4095/327878, 2021.
Jiao, J. and Post, V.: Coastal hydrogeology, Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781139344142, 2019.
Ketabchi, H. and Ataie-Ashtiani, B.: Review: Coastal groundwater optimization – advances, challenges, and practical solutions, Hydrogeol. J., 23, 1129–1154, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-015-1254-1, 2015.
Konikow, L. F., Hornberger, G. Z., Halford, K. J., and Hanson, R. T.: Revised multi-node well (MNW2) package for MODFLOW ground-water flow model, US Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, 67, https://doi.org/10.3133/tm6A30, 2009.
Lal, A. and Datta, B.: Multi-objective groundwater management strategy under uncertainties for sustainable control of saltwater intrusion: Solution for an island country in the South Pacific, J. Environ. Manage., 234, 115–130, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.12.054, 2019.
Lemieux, J.-M., Germain, A., Tremblay, Y., Gatel, L., Arbour, G., Coulon, C., and Dupuis, C.: Portrait des ressources en eau souterraine des îles de la Madeleine [Overview of groundwater resources in the Magdalen Islands], Département de géologie et de génie géologique, Université Laval, http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/73542 (last access: 28 December 2023), 2022.
Michael, H. A., Post, V. E. A., Wilson, A. M., and Werner, A. D.: Science, society, and the coastal groundwater squeeze, Water Resour. Res., 53, 2610–2617, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017wr020851, 2017.
Mostafaei-Avandari, M. and Ketabchi, H.: Coastal Groundwater Management by an Uncertainty-Based Parallel Decision Model, J. Water Res. Pl., 146, 04020036, https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0001227, 2020.
Mustafa, S. M. T., Hasan, M. M., Saha, A. K., Rannu, R. P., Van Uytven, E., Willems, P., and Huysmans, M.: Multi-model approach to quantify groundwater-level prediction uncertainty using an ensemble of global climate models and multiple abstraction scenarios, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2279–2303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2279-2019, 2019.
Paly, M. d., Bürger, C. M., and Bayer, P.: Optimization under worst case constraints – a new global multimodel search procedure, Struct. Multidiscip. O., 48, 1153–1172, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00158-013-0950-5, 2013.
Rajabi, M. M. and Ketabchi, H.: Uncertainty-based simulation-optimization using Gaussian process emulation: Application to coastal groundwater management, J. Hydrol., 555, 518–534, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.10.041, 2017.
Ray, P. A. and Brown, C. M.: Confronting climate uncertainty in water resources planning and project design: The decision tree framework, World Bank Publications, https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0477-9, 2015.
Roy, D. K. and Datta, B.: Influence of Sea Level Rise on Multiobjective Management of Saltwater Intrusion in Coastal Aquifers, J. Hydrol. Eng., 23, 04018035, https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0001680, 2018.
Sreekanth, J. and Datta, B.: Stochastic and Robust Multi-Objective Optimal Management of Pumping from Coastal Aquifers Under Parameter Uncertainty, Water Resour. Manage., 28, 2005–2019, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0591-5, 2014.
Sreekanth, J., Moore, C., and Wolf, L.: Pareto-based efficient stochastic simulation–optimization for robust and reliable groundwater management, J. Hydrol., 533, 180–190, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.12.001, 2016.
Storn, R. and Price, K.: Differential evolution – a simple and efficient heuristic for global optimization over continuous spaces, J. Global Optim., 11, 341–359, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008202821328, 1997.
Werner, A. D., Bakker, M., Post, V. E. A., Vandenbohede, A., Lu, C., Ataie-Ashtiani, B., Simmons, C. T., and Barry, D. A.: Seawater intrusion processes, investigation and management: Recent advances and future challenges, Adv. Water Resour., 51, 3–26, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.03.004, 2013.
Westenbroek, S. M., Engott, J. A., Kelson, V. A., and Hunt, R. J.: SWB Version 2.0 – A soil-water-balance code for estimating net infiltration and other water-budget components, US Geological Survey, 2328–7055, https://doi.org/10.3133/tm6A59, 2018.
White, J. T.: A model-independent iterative ensemble smoother for efficient history-matching and uncertainty quantification in very high dimensions, Environ. Modell. Softw., 109, 191–201, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.06.009, 2018.
White, J. T., Foster, L. K., Fienen, M. N., Knowling, M. J., Hemmings, B., and Winterle, J. R.: Toward Reproducible Environmental Modeling for Decision Support: A Worked Example, Front. Earth Sci., 8, 50, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.00050, 2020a.
White, J. T., Hunt, R. J., Fienen, M. N., and Doherty, J. E.: Approaches to highly parameterized inversion: PEST
White, J. T., Knowling, M. J., Fienen, M. N., Siade, A., Rea, O., and Martinez, G.: A model-independent tool for evolutionary constrained multi-objective optimization under uncertainty, Environ. Modell. Softw., 149, 105316, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105316, 2022.
Zhao, J., Lin, J., Wu, J., and Wu, J.: Impact of climate change on multi-objective management of seawater intrusion in coastal karst aquifers in Zhoushuizi district of Dalian City, China, Hydrogeol. J., 29, 2329–2346, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-021-02383-3, 2021.
Short summary
In coastal areas, groundwater managers require information on the risk of well salinization associated with various pumping scenarios. We developed a modeling approach to identify the optimal tradeoff between groundwater pumping and probability of salinization, considering model parameter and historical observation uncertainty as well as uncertainty in sea level and recharge projections. The workflow can be implemented in a wide range of coastal settings.
In coastal areas, groundwater managers require information on the risk of well salinization...
