Articles | Volume 28, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2343-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2343-2024
Research article
 | 
04 Jun 2024
Research article |  | 04 Jun 2024

Investigation of the functional relationship between antecedent rainfall and the probability of debris flow occurrence in Jiangjia Gully, China

Shaojie Zhang, Xiaohu Lei, Hongjuan Yang, Kaiheng Hu, Juan Ma, Dunlong Liu, and Fanqiang Wei

Related authors

Quantitative effects of antecedent effective rainfall on ID threshold for debris flow
Shaojie Zhang, Hongjuan Yang, Dunlong Liu, Kaiheng Hu, and Fangqiang Wei
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-57,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-57, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
A physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides at regional scale
Shaojie Zhang, Luqiang Zhao, Ricardo Delgado-Tellez, and Hongjun Bao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 969–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-969-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-969-2018, 2018
Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area
D. L. Liu, S. J. Zhang, H. J. Yang, L. Q. Zhao, Y. H. Jiang, D. Tang, and X. P. Leng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 483–496, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-483-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-483-2016, 2016

Related subject area

Subject: Hillslope hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Technical note: Monitoring discharge of mountain streams by retrieving image features with deep learning
Chenqi Fang, Genyu Yuan, Ziying Zheng, Qirui Zhong, and Kai Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4085–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4085-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4085-2024, 2024
Short summary
Rapid spatio-temporal flood modelling via hydraulics-based graph neural networks
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4227–4246, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4227-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4227-2023, 2023
Short summary
Understanding hydrologic controls of sloping soil response to precipitation through machine learning analysis applied to synthetic data
Daniel Camilo Roman Quintero, Pasquale Marino, Giovanni Francesco Santonastaso, and Roberto Greco
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4151–4172, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4151-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4151-2023, 2023
Short summary
Elucidating the role of soil hydraulic properties on aspect-dependent landslide initiation
Yanglin Guo and Chao Ma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1667–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1667-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1667-2023, 2023
Short summary
Recession discharge from compartmentalized bedrock hillslopes
Clément Roques, David E. Rupp, Jean-Raynald de Dreuzy, Laurent Longuevergne, Elizabeth R. Jachens, Gordon Grant, Luc Aquilina, and John S. Selker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4391–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4391-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4391-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Abraham, M. T., Satyam, N., Pradhan, B., and Alamri, A. M.: Forecasting of landslides using rainfall severity and soil wetness: A probabilistic approach for Darjeeling Himalayas, Water (Switzerland), 12, 1–19, 2020. 
Abraham, M. T., Satyan, N., Rosi, A., Pradhan, B., and Segoni, S.: Usage of antecedent soil moisture for improving the performance of rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning, Catena, 200, 105147, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2021.105147, 2021. 
Adams, B., Fraser, H., Howard, C., and Hanafy, M.: Meteorological data analysis for drainage system design, J. Environ. Eng., 112, 827–848, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(1986)112:5(827), 1986. 
Albert, G. E.: A general theory of stochastic estimates of the Neumann series for solution of certain Fredholm integral equations and related series, in: Symposium of Monte Carlo Methods, edited by: Meyer, M. A., Wiley, New York, https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/4427633 (last access: 29 May 2024), 1956. 
Bel, C., Liébault, F., Navratil O., Eckert N., Bellot H., Fontaine, F., and Laigle, D.: Rainfall control of debris-flow triggering in the Réal Torrent, Southern French Prealphs, 291, 17–32, 2017. 
Download
Short summary
Antecedent effective precipitation (AEP) plays an important role in debris flow formation, but the relationship between AEP and the debris flow occurrence (Pdf) is still not quantified. We used numerical calculation and the Monte Carlo integration method to solve this issue. The relationship between Pdf and AEP can be described by the piecewise function, and debris flow is a small-probability event comparing to rainfall frequency because the maximum Pdf in Jiangjia Gully is only 15.88 %.