Articles | Volume 28, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2343-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2343-2024
Research article
 | 
04 Jun 2024
Research article |  | 04 Jun 2024

Investigation of the functional relationship between antecedent rainfall and the probability of debris flow occurrence in Jiangjia Gully, China

Shaojie Zhang, Xiaohu Lei, Hongjuan Yang, Kaiheng Hu, Juan Ma, Dunlong Liu, and Fanqiang Wei

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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Quantitative effects of antecedent effective rainfall on ID threshold for debris flow
Shaojie Zhang, Hongjuan Yang, Dunlong Liu, Kaiheng Hu, and Fangqiang Wei
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Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Cited articles

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Abraham, M. T., Satyan, N., Rosi, A., Pradhan, B., and Segoni, S.: Usage of antecedent soil moisture for improving the performance of rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning, Catena, 200, 105147, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2021.105147, 2021. 
Adams, B., Fraser, H., Howard, C., and Hanafy, M.: Meteorological data analysis for drainage system design, J. Environ. Eng., 112, 827–848, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(1986)112:5(827), 1986. 
Albert, G. E.: A general theory of stochastic estimates of the Neumann series for solution of certain Fredholm integral equations and related series, in: Symposium of Monte Carlo Methods, edited by: Meyer, M. A., Wiley, New York, https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/4427633 (last access: 29 May 2024), 1956. 
Bel, C., Liébault, F., Navratil O., Eckert N., Bellot H., Fontaine, F., and Laigle, D.: Rainfall control of debris-flow triggering in the Réal Torrent, Southern French Prealphs, 291, 17–32, 2017. 
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Short summary
Antecedent effective precipitation (AEP) plays an important role in debris flow formation, but the relationship between AEP and the debris flow occurrence (Pdf) is still not quantified. We used numerical calculation and the Monte Carlo integration method to solve this issue. The relationship between Pdf and AEP can be described by the piecewise function, and debris flow is a small-probability event comparing to rainfall frequency because the maximum Pdf in Jiangjia Gully is only 15.88 %.
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