Articles | Volume 28, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2343-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2343-2024
Research article
 | 
04 Jun 2024
Research article |  | 04 Jun 2024

Investigation of the functional relationship between antecedent rainfall and the probability of debris flow occurrence in Jiangjia Gully, China

Shaojie Zhang, Xiaohu Lei, Hongjuan Yang, Kaiheng Hu, Juan Ma, Dunlong Liu, and Fanqiang Wei

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Latest update: 21 Nov 2024
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Short summary
Antecedent effective precipitation (AEP) plays an important role in debris flow formation, but the relationship between AEP and the debris flow occurrence (Pdf) is still not quantified. We used numerical calculation and the Monte Carlo integration method to solve this issue. The relationship between Pdf and AEP can be described by the piecewise function, and debris flow is a small-probability event comparing to rainfall frequency because the maximum Pdf in Jiangjia Gully is only 15.88 %.