Articles | Volume 26, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4657-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4657-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Sep 2022
Research article |
| 22 Sep 2022
| 22 Sep 2022
Future snow changes and their impact on the upstream runoff in Salween
Chenhao Chai
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and
Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy
of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
The University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and
Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy
of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
The University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Deliang Chen
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg
40530, Sweden
Jing Zhou
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and
Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy
of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Hu Liu
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and
Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy
of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
The University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Jingtian Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and
Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy
of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
The University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Yuanwei Wang
School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information
Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou
510275, China
Ruishun Liu
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and
Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy
of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
The University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Related authors
No articles found.
Cheng Shen, Hui-Shuang Yuan, Zhi-Bo Li, Jinling Piao, Youli Chang, and Deliang Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1156, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Near-surface wind speed affects air quality, water cycles, and wind energy, but its future changes in South Asia remain uncertain. This study explores how internal climate variability, particularly the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, affects wind speed trends in the region. Using advanced climate simulations, we show that accounting for this variability reduces uncertainty in future projections. Our findings can improve climate adaptation strategies and wind energy planning.
Zhi-Bo Li, Chao Liu, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Soon-Il An, Yang Zhao, Yang Xu, Jongsoo Shin, Deliang Chen, and Cheng Shen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1377, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores how European wind speeds respond to the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, focusing on their importance for wind energy. Using advanced climate models, we discovered that wind speeds react differently during periods of increased and decreased carbon dioxide levels. This study not only advances our understanding of climate dynamics but also aids in optimizing strategies for wind energy, crucial for future planning and policy-making in response to climate change.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings show that runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin is primarily driven by rainfall, with the largest glacier runoff contribution in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff increased in the upper stream but decreased downstream due to varying precipitation patterns. It is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by increased rainfall.
Zengyun Hu, Xi Chen, Deliang Chen, Zhuo Zhang, Qiming Zhou, and Qingxiang Li
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-82, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
ERC firstly unified the evaluating, ranking, and clustering by a simple mathematic equation based on Euclidean Distance. It provides new system to solve the evaluating, ranking, and clustering tasks in SDGs. In fact, ERC system can be applied in any scientific domain.
Tao Chen, Félicien Meunier, Marc Peaucelle, Guoping Tang, Ye Yuan, and Hans Verbeeck
Biogeosciences, 21, 2253–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2253-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2253-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Chinese subtropical forest ecosystems are an extremely important component of global forest ecosystems and hence crucial for the global carbon cycle and regional climate change. However, there is still great uncertainty in the relationship between subtropical forest carbon sequestration and its drivers. We provide first quantitative estimates of the individual and interactive effects of different drivers on the gross primary productivity changes of various subtropical forest types in China.
Qian Lin, Jie Chen, and Deliang Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-826, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have experienced widespread retreat in recent decades, but impacts of glacier changes that have occurred on regional climate, including precipitation, is still unknown. Thus, this study addressed this knowledge gap, and found that glacier changes exert a more pronounced impact on summer extreme precipitation events than mean precipitation over the TP. This provides a certain theoretical reference for the further improvement of long-term glacier projection.
Fangzhong Shi, Xiaoyan Li, Shaojie Zhao, Yujun Ma, Junqi Wei, Qiwen Liao, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 163–178, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
(1) Evaporation under ice-free and sublimation under ice-covered conditions and its influencing factors were first quantified based on 6 years of eddy covariance observations. (2) Night evaporation of Qinghai Lake accounts for more than 40 % of the daily evaporation. (3) Lake ice sublimation reaches 175.22 ± 45.98 mm, accounting for 23 % of the annual evaporation. (4) Wind speed weakening may have resulted in a 7.56 % decrease in lake evaporation during the ice-covered period from 2003 to 2017.
John Erik Engström, Lennart Wern, Sverker Hellström, Erik Kjellström, Chunlüe Zhou, Deliang Chen, and Cesar Azorin-Molina
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2259–2277, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2259-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2259-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Newly digitized wind speed observations provide data from the time period from around 1920 to the present, enveloping one full century of wind measurements. The results of this work enable the investigation of the historical variability and trends in surface wind speed in Sweden for
the last century.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, Guifeng Huang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-16, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Based on field research campaigns since 2017 in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) river basin and a well-validated model, our results reveal that large regional differences in runoff regimes and changes exist in the basin. Annual runoff shows decreasing trend in the downstream sub-basin but increasing trends in the upper and middle sub-basins, due to opposing precipitation changes. Glacier runoff plays more important role in annual total runoff in downstream basin.
Hao Li, Baoying Shan, Liu Liu, Lei Wang, Akash Koppa, Feng Zhong, Dongfeng Li, Xuanxuan Wang, Wenfeng Liu, Xiuping Li, and Zongxue Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6399–6412, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6399-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines changes in water yield by determining turning points in the direction of yield changes and highlights that regime shifts in historical water yield occurred in the Upper Brahmaputra River basin, both the climate and cryosphere affect the magnitude of water yield increases, climate determined the declining trends in water yield, and meltwater has the potential to alleviate the water shortage. A repository for all source files is made available.
Jianting Zhao, Lin Zhao, Zhe Sun, Fujun Niu, Guojie Hu, Defu Zou, Guangyue Liu, Erji Du, Chong Wang, Lingxiao Wang, Yongping Qiao, Jianzong Shi, Yuxin Zhang, Junqiang Gao, Yuanwei Wang, Yan Li, Wenjun Yu, Huayun Zhou, Zanpin Xing, Minxuan Xiao, Luhui Yin, and Shengfeng Wang
The Cryosphere, 16, 4823–4846, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4823-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4823-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost has been warming and thawing globally; this is especially true in boundary regions. We focus on the changes and variability in permafrost distribution and thermal dynamics in the northern limit of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) by applying a new permafrost model. Unlike previous papers on this topic, our findings highlight a slow, decaying process in the response of permafrost in the QTP to a warming climate, especially regarding areal extent.
Changgui Lin, Erik Kjellström, Renate Anna Irma Wilcke, and Deliang Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1197–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study endorses RCMs' added value on the driving GCMs in representing observed heat wave magnitudes. The future increase of heat wave magnitudes projected by GCMs is attenuated when downscaled by RCMs. Within the downscaling, uncertainties can be attributed almost equally to choice of RCMs and to the driving data associated with different GCMs. Uncertainties of GCMs in simulating heat wave magnitudes are transformed by RCMs in a complex manner rather than simply inherited.
Chunlüe Zhou, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Erik Engström, Lorenzo Minola, Lennart Wern, Sverker Hellström, Jessika Lönn, and Deliang Chen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2167–2177, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2167-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To fill the key gap of short availability and inhomogeneity of wind speed (WS) in Sweden, we rescued the early paper records of WS since 1925 and built the first 10-member centennial homogenized WS dataset (HomogWS-se) for community use. An initial WS stilling and recovery before the 1990s was observed, and a strong link with North Atlantic Oscillation was found. HomogWS-se improves our knowledge of uncertainty and causes of historical WS changes.
Xiangde Xu, Chan Sun, Deliang Chen, Tianliang Zhao, Jianjun Xu, Shengjun Zhang, Juan Li, Bin Chen, Yang Zhao, Hongxiong Xu, Lili Dong, Xiaoyun Sun, and Yan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1149–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1149-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1149-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A vertical transport window of tropospheric vapor exists on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The TP's thermal forcing drives the vertical transport
windowof vapor in the troposphere. The effects of the TP's vertical transport window of vapor are of importance in global climate change.
Yuanwei Wang, Lei Wang, Xiuping Li, Jing Zhou, and Zhidan Hu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1789–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1789-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1789-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This article is to provide a better precipitation product for the largest river basin of the Tibetan Plateau, the upper Brahmaputra River basin, suitable for use in hydrological simulations and other climate change studies. We integrate gauge, satellite, and reanalysis precipitation datasets to generate a new dataset. The new product has been rigorously validated at various temporal and spatial scales with gauge precipitation observations as well as in cryosphere hydrological simulations.
Chaehyeon C. Nam, Doo-Sun R. Park, Chang-Hoi Ho, and Deliang Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3225–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3225-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3225-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that a small deviation of the tropical cyclone (TC) track in the west–east direction (less than 250 km smaller than the average radius of the TC) has a more dominant effect on the extent and distribution of TC damage than TC intensity or size. This suggests that track information should be considered more carefully in assessments of future TC risk.
Kristina Seftigen, Hugues Goosse, Francois Klein, and Deliang Chen
Clim. Past, 13, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Comparisons of proxy data to GCM-simulated hydroclimate are still limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterized. In this study, we bring together tree-ring paleoclimate evidence and CMIP5–PMIP3 model simulations of the last millennium hydroclimate variability across Scandinavia. We explore the consistency between the datasets and the role of external forcing versus internal variability in driving the hydroclimate changes regionally.
Chi Zhang, Qiuhong Tang, Deliang Chen, Laifang Li, Xingcai Liu, and Huijuan Cui
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10383–10393, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10383-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10383-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation over Southwest China (SWC) has decreased significantly in recent years. By tracking precipitation moisture, we found that the reduced precipitation results from the reduced moisture supply from the extended west, which is influenced by the South Asian summer monsoon and the westerlies. Further study revealed the dynamic variations in circulation dominate the interannual variations in SWC precipitation. Changes in circulation systems may be related to the recent changes in SSTs.
Peng Zhang, Hans W. Linderholm, Björn E. Gunnarson, Jesper Björklund, and Deliang Chen
Clim. Past, 12, 1297–1312, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1297-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1297-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present C-Scan, a new Scots pine tree-ring density based reconstruction of warm-season (April-September) temperatures for central Scandinavia back to 850 CE, extending the previous reconstruction by 250 years. Our reconstruction indicates that the warm-season warmth during a relatively-warm period of last millennium is not so pronounced in central Scandinavia, which adds further detail to our knowledge about the spatial pattern of surface air temperature on the regional scale.
M. S. Johnston, G. Holl, J. Hocking, S. J. Cooper, and D. Chen
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amtd-8-11753-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amtd-8-11753-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn
M. Shrestha, L. Wang, T. Koike, H. Tsutsui, Y. Xue, and Y. Hirabayashi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 747–761, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-747-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-747-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Evaluating the effects of topography and land use change on hydrological signatures: a comparative study of two adjacent watersheds
Technical note: What does the Standardized Streamflow Index actually reflect? Insights and implications for hydrological drought analysis
Long short-term memory networks for enhancing real-time flood forecasts: a case study for an underperforming hydrologic model
Assessing the value of high-resolution rainfall and streamflow data for hydrological modeling: an analysis based on 63 catchments in southeast China
Catchments do not strictly follow Budyko curves over multiple decades, but deviations are minor and predictable
Scale dependency in modeling nivo-glacial hydrological systems: the case of the Arolla basin, Switzerland
Extended-range forecasting of stream water temperature with deep-learning models
Technical note: An approach for handling multiple temporal frequencies with different input dimensions using a single LSTM cell
Projections of streamflow intermittence under climate change in European drying river networks
Economic valuation of subsurface water contributions to watershed ecosystem services using a fully integrated groundwater–surface-water model
Analyzing the generalization capabilities of a hybrid hydrological model for extrapolation to extreme events
CH-RUN: a deep-learning-based spatially contiguous runoff reconstruction for Switzerland
Runoff component quantification and future streamflow projection in a large mountainous basin based on a multidata-constrained cryospheric–hydrological model
Exploring the potential processes controlling changes in precipitation–runoff relationships in non-stationary environments
A diversity-centric strategy for the selection of spatio-temporal training data for LSTM-based streamflow forecasting
Simulating the Tone River eastward diversion project in Japan carried out 4 centuries ago
Lack of robustness of hydrological models: a large-sample diagnosis and an attempt to identify hydrological and climatic drivers
Achieving water budget closure through physical hydrological process modelling: insights from a large-sample study
Heavy-tailed flood peak distributions: what is the effect of the spatial variability of rainfall and runoff generation?
State updating of the Xin'anjiang model: joint assimilating streamflow and multi-source soil moisture data via the asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter with enhanced error models
Improving the hydrological consistency of a process-based solute-transport model by simultaneous calibration of streamflow and stream concentrations
Leveraging a time-series event separation method to disentangle time-varying hydrologic controls on streamflow – application to wildfire-affected catchments
The significance of the leaf area index for evapotranspiration estimation in SWAT-T for characteristic land cover types of West Africa
Improved representation of soil moisture processes through incorporation of cosmic-ray neutron count measurements in a large-scale hydrologic model
Spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow in water-scarce Mediterranean basins
A large-sample modelling approach towards integrating streamflow and evaporation data for the Spanish catchments
Seasonal variation in land cover estimates reveals sensitivities and opportunities for environmental models
Estimating response times, flow velocities, and roughness coefficients of Canadian Prairie basins
Learning landscape features from streamflow with autoencoders
Hydrological regime index for non-perennial rivers
On the use of streamflow transformations for hydrological model calibration
Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators
Multi-scale soil moisture data and process-based modeling reveal the importance of lateral groundwater flow in a subarctic catchment
CONCN: A high-resolution, integrated surface water-groundwater ParFlow modeling platform of continental China
Catchment response to climatic variability: implications for root zone storage and streamflow predictions
Assesing the Value of High-Resolution Data and Parameters Transferability Across Temporal Scales in Hydrological Modeling: A Case Study in Northern China
Hybrid hydrological modeling for large alpine basins: a semi-distributed approach
Technical note: How many models do we need to simulate hydrologic processes across large geographical domains?
Karst aquifer discharge response to rainfall interpreted as anomalous transport
HESS Opinions: Never train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network on a single basin
Large-sample hydrology – a few camels or a whole caravan?
Comment on “Are soils overrated in hydrology?” by Gao et al. (2023)
Multi-decadal fluctuations in root zone storage capacity through vegetation adaptation to hydro-climatic variability have minor effects on the hydrological response in the Neckar River basin, Germany
Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China
On the importance of plant phenology in the evaporative process of a semi-arid woodland: could it be why satellite-based evaporation estimates in the miombo differ?
Assessing the adequacy of traditional hydrological models for climate change impact studies: A case for long-short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks
Regionalization of GR4J model parameters for river flow prediction in Paraná, Brazil
Evolution of river regimes in the Mekong River basin over 8 decades and the role of dams in recent hydrological extremes
Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea
To what extent do flood-inducing storm events change future flood hazards?
Haifan Liu, Haochen Yan, and Mingfu Guan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2109–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2109-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Land changes and landscape features critically impact water systems. Studying two watersheds in China’s Greater Bay Area, we found slope strongly influences water processes in mountainous areas. However, this relationship is weak in the lower regions of steeper watersheds. Urbanization leads to an increase in annual surface runoff, while flatter watersheds exhibit a buffering capacity against this effect. However, this buffering capacity diminishes with increasing annual rainfall intensity.
Fabián Lema, Pablo A. Mendoza, Nicolás A. Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1981–2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1981-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1981-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological droughts affect ecosystems and socioeconomic activities worldwide. Despite the fact that they are commonly described with the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), there is limited understanding of what they truly reflect in terms of water cycle processes. Here, we used state-of-the-art hydrological models in Andean basins to examine drivers of SSI fluctuations. The results highlight the importance of careful selection of indices and timescales for accurate drought characterization and monitoring.
Sebastian Gegenleithner, Manuel Pirker, Clemens Dorfmann, Roman Kern, and Josef Schneider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1939–1962, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1939-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1939-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate early-warning systems are crucial for reducing the damage caused by flooding events. In this study, we explored the potential of long short-term memory networks for enhancing the forecast accuracy of hydrologic models employed in operational flood forecasting. The presented approach elevated the investigated hydrologic model’s forecast accuracy for further ahead predictions and at flood event runoff.
Mahmut Tudaji, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1919–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1919-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1919-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Common intuition holds that higher input data resolution leads to better results. To assess the benefits of high-resolution data, we conduct simulation experiments using data with various temporal resolutions across multiple catchments and find that higher-resolution data do not always improve model performance, challenging the necessity of pursuing such data. In catchments with small areas or significant flow variability, high-resolution data is more valuable.
Muhammad Ibrahim, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Ruud van der Ent, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1703–1723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1703-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1703-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The quantification of precipitation into evaporation and runoff is vital for water resources management. The Budyko framework, based on aridity and evaporative indices of a catchment, can be an ideal tool for that. However, recent research highlights deviations of catchments from the expected evaporative index, casting doubt on its reliability. This study quantifies deviations of 2387 catchments, finding them minor and predictable. Integrating these into predictions upholds the framework's efficacy.
Anne-Laure Argentin, Pascal Horton, Bettina Schaefli, Jamal Shokory, Felix Pitscheider, Leona Repnik, Mattia Gianini, Simone Bizzi, Stuart N. Lane, and Francesco Comiti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1725–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1725-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we show that by taking the optimal parameters calibrated with a semi-lumped model for the discharge at a catchment's outlet, we can accurately simulate runoff at various points within the study area, including three nested and three neighboring catchments. In addition, we demonstrate that employing more intricate melt models, which better represent physical processes, enhances the transfer of parameters in the simulation, until we observe overparameterization.
Ryan S. Padrón, Massimiliano Zappa, Luzi Bernhard, and Konrad Bogner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1685–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1685-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1685-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We generate operational forecasts of daily maximum stream water temperature for 32 consecutive days at 54 stations in Switzerland with our best-performing data-driven model. The average forecast error is 0.38 °C for 1 d ahead and increases to 0.90 °C for 32 d ahead given the uncertainty in the meteorological variables influencing water temperature. Here we compare the skill of several models, how well they can forecast at new and ungauged stations, and the importance of different model inputs.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Ralf Loritz, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1749–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1749-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance for rainfall-runoff hydrological modelling. However, most studies focus on predictions at a daily scale, limiting the benefits of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions in applications like flood forecasting. In this study, we introduce a new architecture, multi-frequency LSTM (MF-LSTM), designed to use inputs of various temporal frequencies to produce sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions at a moderate computational cost.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Alexandre Devers, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Claire Lauvernet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Núria Bonada, Zoltán Csabai, Heikki Mykrä, Petr Pařil, Luka Polović, and Thibault Datry
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1615–1636, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1615-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1615-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study projects how climate change will affect the drying of river segments and stream networks in Europe, using advanced modelling techniques to assess changes in six river networks across diverse ecoregions. We found that drying events will become more frequent and intense and will start earlier or last longer, potentially turning some river sections from perennial to intermittent. The results are valuable for river ecologists for evaluating the ecological health of river ecosystem.
Tariq Aziz, Steven K. Frey, David R. Lapen, Susan Preston, Hazen A. J. Russell, Omar Khader, Andre R. Erler, and Edward A. Sudicky
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1549–1568, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1549-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1549-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study determines the value of subsurface water for ecosystem services' supply in an agricultural watershed in Ontario, Canada. Using a fully integrated water model and an economic valuation approach, the research highlights subsurface water's critical role in maintaining watershed ecosystem services. The study informs on the sustainable use of subsurface water and introduces a new method for managing watershed ecosystem services.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1277–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1277-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1277-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven techniques have shown the potential to outperform process-based models in rainfall–runoff simulations. Hybrid models, combining both approaches, aim to enhance accuracy and maintain interpretability. Expanding the set of test cases to evaluate hybrid models under different conditions, we test their generalization capabilities for extreme hydrological events.
Basil Kraft, Michael Schirmer, William H. Aeberhard, Massimiliano Zappa, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Lukas Gudmundsson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1061–1082, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1061-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study reconstructs daily runoff in Switzerland (1962–2023) using a deep-learning model, providing a spatially contiguous dataset on a medium-sized catchment grid. The model outperforms traditional hydrological methods, revealing shifts in Swiss water resources, including more frequent dry years and declining summer runoff. The reconstruction is publicly available.
Mengjiao Zhang, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1033–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1033-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1033-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Owing to differences in the existing published results, we conducted a detailed analysis of the runoff components and future trends in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin and found that the contributions of snowmelt and glacier melt runoff to streamflow (both ~5 %) are limited and much lower than previous results. The streamflow in this area will continuously increase in the future, but the overestimated contribution of glacier melt could lead to an underestimation of this increasing trend.
Tian Lan, Tongfang Li, Hongbo Zhang, Jiefeng Wu, Yongqin David Chen, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 903–924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-903-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-903-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops an integrated framework based on the novel Driving index for changes in Precipitation–Runoff Relationships (DPRR) to explore the controlling changes in precipitation–runoff relationships in non-stationary environments. According to the quantitative results of the candidate driving factors, the possible process explanations for changes in the precipitation–runoff relationships are deduced. The main contribution offers a comprehensive understanding of hydrological processes.
Everett Snieder and Usman T. Khan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 785–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-785-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Improving the accuracy of flood forecasts is paramount to minimising flood damage. Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being applied for flood forecasting. Such models are typically trained on large historic hydrometeorological datasets. In this work, we evaluate methods for selecting training datasets that maximise the spatio-temporal diversity of the represented hydrological processes. Empirical results showcase the importance of hydrological diversity in training ML models.
Joško Trošelj and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 753–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-753-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-753-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first distributed hydrological simulation which confirms claims raised by historians that the eastward diversion project of the Tone River in Japan was conducted 4 centuries ago to increase low flows and subsequent travelling possibilities surrounding the capital, Edo (Tokyo), using inland navigation. We showed that great steps forward can be made for improving quality of life with small human engineering waterworks and small interventions in the regime of natural flows.
Léonard Santos, Vazken Andréassian, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Göran Lindström, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, Lila Collet, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work investigates how hydrological models are transferred to a period in which climate conditions are different to the ones of the period in which they were set up. The robustness assessment test built to detect dependencies between model error and climatic drivers was applied to three hydrological models in 352 catchments in Denmark, France and Sweden. Potential issues are seen in a significant number of catchments for the models, even though the catchments differ for each model.
Xudong Zheng, Dengfeng Liu, Shengzhi Huang, Hao Wang, and Xianmeng Meng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 627–653, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-627-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Water budget non-closure is a widespread phenomenon among multisource datasets which undermines the robustness of hydrological inferences. This study proposes a Multisource Dataset Correction Framework grounded in Physical Hydrological Process Modelling to enhance water budget closure, termed PHPM-MDCF. We examined the efficiency and robustness of the framework using the CAMELS dataset and achieved an average reduction of 49 % in total water budget residuals across 475 CONUS basins.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Viet Dung Nguyen, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 447–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Flood peak distributions indicate how likely the occurrence of an extreme flood is at a certain river. If the distribution has a so-called heavy tail, extreme floods are more likely than might be anticipated. We find heavier tails in small catchments compared to large catchments, and spatially variable rainfall leads to a lower occurrence probability of extreme floods. Spatially variable runoff does not show effects. The results can improve estimations of probabilities of extreme floods.
Junfu Gong, Xingwen Liu, Cheng Yao, Zhijia Li, Albrecht H. Weerts, Qiaoling Li, Satish Bastola, Yingchun Huang, and Junzeng Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 335–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces a new method to improve flood forecasting by combining soil moisture and streamflow data using an advanced data assimilation technique. By integrating field and reanalysis soil moisture data and assimilating this with streamflow measurements, we aim to enhance the accuracy of flood predictions. This approach reduces the accumulation of past errors in the initial conditions at the start of the forecast, helping to better prepare for and respond to floods.
Jordy Salmon-Monviola, Ophélie Fovet, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 127–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To increase the predictive power of hydrological models, it is necessary to improve their consistency, i.e. their physical realism, which is measured by the ability of the model to reproduce observed system dynamics. Using a model to represent the dynamics of water and nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in an agricultural catchment, we showed that using solute-concentration data for calibration is useful to improve the hydrological consistency of the model.
Haley A. Canham, Belize Lane, Colin B. Phillips, and Brendan P. Murphy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 27–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of watershed disturbances has proved challenging to disentangle from natural streamflow variability. This study evaluates the influence of time-varying hydrologic controls on rainfall–runoff in undisturbed and wildfire-disturbed watersheds using a novel time-series event separation method. Across watersheds, water year type and season influenced rainfall–runoff patterns. Accounting for these controls enabled clearer isolation of wildfire effects.
Fabian Merk, Timo Schaffhauser, Faizan Anwar, Ye Tuo, Jean-Martial Cohard, and Markus Disse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5511–5539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Evapotranspiration (ET) is computed from the vegetation (plant transpiration) and soil (soil evaporation). In western Africa, plant transpiration correlates with vegetation growth. Vegetation is often represented using the leaf area index (LAI). In this study, we evaluate the importance of the LAI for ET calculation. We take a close look at this interaction and highlight its relevance. Our work contributes to the understanding of terrestrial water cycle processes .
Eshrat Fatima, Rohini Kumar, Sabine Attinger, Maren Kaluza, Oldrich Rakovec, Corinna Rebmann, Rafael Rosolem, Sascha E. Oswald, Luis Samaniego, Steffen Zacharias, and Martin Schrön
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5419–5441, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study establishes a framework to incorporate cosmic-ray neutron measurements into the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). We evaluate different approaches to estimate neutron counts within the mHM using the Desilets equation, with uniformly and non-uniformly weighted average soil moisture, and the physically based code COSMIC. The data improved not only soil moisture simulations but also the parameterisation of evapotranspiration in the model.
Laia Estrada, Xavier Garcia, Joan Saló-Grau, Rafael Marcé, Antoni Munné, and Vicenç Acuña
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5353–5373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling is a powerful tool to support decision-making. We assessed spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow for 2001–2022 with a hydrological model, integrating stakeholder expert knowledge on management operations. The results provide insight into how climate change and anthropogenic pressures affect water resources availability in regions vulnerable to water scarcity, thus raising the need for sustainable management practices and integrated hydrological modelling.
Patricio Yeste, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Sonia R. Gámiz-Fortis, Yolanda Castro-Díez, Axel Bronstert, and María Jesús Esteban-Parra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5331–5352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Integrating streamflow and evaporation data can help improve the physical realism of hydrologic models. We investigate the capabilities of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) to reproduce both hydrologic variables for 189 headwater located in Spain. Results from sensitivity analyses indicate that adding two vegetation parameters is enough to improve the representation of evaporation and that the performance of VIC exceeded that of the largest modelling effort currently available in Spain.
Daniel T. Myers, David Jones, Diana Oviedo-Vargas, John Paul Schmit, Darren L. Ficklin, and Xuesong Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5295–5310, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how streamflow and water quality models respond to land cover data collected by satellites during the growing season versus the non-growing season. The land cover data showed more trees during the growing season and more built areas during the non-growing season. We next found that the use of non-growing season data resulted in a higher modeled nutrient export to streams. Knowledge of these sensitivities would be particularly important when models inform water resource management.
Kevin R. Shook, Paul H. Whitfield, Christopher Spence, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5173–5192, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies suggest that the velocities of water running off landscapes in the Canadian Prairies may be much smaller than generally assumed. Analyses of historical flows for 23 basins in central Alberta show that many of the rivers responded more slowly and that the flows are much slower than would be estimated from equations developed elsewhere. The effects of slow flow velocities on the development of hydrological models of the region are discussed, as are the possible causes.
Alberto Bassi, Marvin Höge, Antonietta Mira, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Carlo Albert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4971–4988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The goal is to remove the impact of meteorological drivers in order to uncover the unique landscape fingerprints of a catchment from streamflow data. Our results reveal an optimal two-feature summary for most catchments, with a third feature associated with aridity and intermittent flow that is needed for challenging cases. Baseflow index, aridity, and soil or vegetation attributes strongly correlate with learnt features, indicating their importance for streamflow prediction.
Pablo Fernando Dornes and Rocío Noelia Comas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-338, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-338, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
The Desaguadero-Salado-Chadiluevú-Curacó (DSCC) River is a semiarid river which is severely dammed in its tributaries which collect the snowmelt runoff. This runoff feeds mostly gravitational irrigation systems of very low efficiency. As a result, the DSCC River does not have natural runoff. The proposed Hydrological Regime Index (HRI) is able to discriminate and quantify regime alterations under permanent and non-permanent flow conditions and with low and high impoundment conditions.
Guillaume Thirel, Léonard Santos, Olivier Delaigue, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4837–4860, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how mathematical transformations impact calibrated hydrological model simulations. We assess how 11 transformations behave over the complete range of streamflows. Extreme transformations lead to models that are specialized for extreme streamflows but show poor performance outside the range of targeted streamflows and are less robust. We show that no a priori assumption about transformations can be taken as warranted.
Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4685–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale hydrologic simulators are a needed tool to explore complex watershed processes and how they may evolve with a changing climate. However, calibrating them can be difficult because they are costly to run and have many unknown parameters. We implement a state-of-the-art approach to model calibration using neural networks with a set of experiments based on streamflow in the upper Colorado River basin.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Kersti Leppä, Hannu Marttila, Pertti Ala-aho, Giulia Mazzotti, Terhikki Manninen, Mika Korkiakoski, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, and Samuli Launiainen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4643–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used hydrological models, field measurements, and satellite-based data to study the soil moisture dynamics in a subarctic catchment. The role of groundwater was studied with different ways to model the groundwater dynamics and via comparisons to the observational data. The choice of groundwater model was shown to have a strong impact, and representation of lateral flow was important to capture wet soil conditions. Our results provide insights for ecohydrological studies in boreal regions.
Chen Yang, Zitong Jia, Wenjie Xu, Zhongwang Wei, Xiaolang Zhang, Yiguang Zou, Jeffrey McDonnell, Laura Condon, Yongjiu Dai, and Reed Maxwell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-292, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-292, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We developed the first high-resolution, integrated surface water-groundwater hydrologic model of the entire continental China using ParFlow. The model shows good performance of streamflow and water table depth when compared to global data products and observations. It is essential for water resources management and decision making in China within a consistent framework in the changing world. It also has significant implications for similar modeling in other places in the world.
Nienke Tempel, Laurène Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4577–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities and, thus, on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that, despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Mahmut Tudaji, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2966, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2966, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the value of high-resolution data and parameters transferability across temporal scales based on 7 catchments in northern China. We found that higher resolution data does not always improve model performance, questioning the need for such data; Model parameters are transferable across different data resolutions, but not across computational time steps. It is recommended to utilize smaller computational time step when building hydrological models even without high-resolution data.
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4521–4538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper developed hybrid semi-distributed hydrological models by employing a process-based model as the backbone and utilizing deep learning to parameterize and replace internal modules. The main contribution is to provide a high-performance tool enriched with explicit hydrological knowledge for hydrological prediction and to improve understanding about the hydrological sensitivities to climate change in large alpine basins.
Wouter J. M. Knoben, Ashwin Raman, Gaby J. Gründemann, Mukesh Kumar, Alain Pietroniro, Chaopeng Shen, Yalan Song, Cyril Thébault, Katie van Werkhoven, Andrew W. Wood, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-279, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrologic models are needed to provide simulations of water availability, floods and droughts. The accuracy of these simulations is often quantified with so-called performance scores. A common thought is that different models are more or less applicable to different landscapes, depending on how the model works. We show that performance scores are not helpful in distinguishing between different models, and thus cannot easily be used to select an appropriate model for a specific place.
Dan Elhanati, Nadine Goeppert, and Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4239–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A continuous time random walk framework was developed to allow modeling of a karst aquifer discharge response to measured rainfall. The application of the numerical model yielded robust fits between modeled and measured discharge values, especially for the distinctive long tails found during recession times. The findings shed light on the interplay of slow and fast flow in the karst system and establish the application of the model for simulating flow and transport in such systems.
Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4187–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, a special type of neural-network architecture became increasingly popular in hydrology literature. However, in most applications, this model was applied as a one-to-one replacement for hydrology models without adapting or rethinking the experimental setup. In this opinion paper, we show how this is almost always a bad decision and how using these kinds of models requires the use of large-sample hydrology data sets.
Franziska Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4219–4237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the differences between the forcing data included in three CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB) and the forcing data included for the same catchments in the Caravan dataset affect model calibration considerably. The model performance dropped when the data from the Caravan dataset were used instead of the original data. Most of the model performance drop could be attributed to the differences in precipitation data. However, differences were largest for the potential evapotranspiration data.
Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4059–4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Gao et al. (2023) question the importance of soil in hydrology, sparking debate. We acknowledge some valid points but critique their broad, unsubstantiated views on soil's role. Our response highlights three key areas: (1) the false divide between ecosystem-centric and soil-centric approaches, (2) the vital yet varied impact of soil properties, and (3) the call for a scale-aware framework. We aim to unify these perspectives, enhancing hydrology's comprehensive understanding.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Zehua Chang, Hongkai Gao, Leilei Yong, Kang Wang, Rensheng Chen, Chuntan Han, Otgonbayar Demberel, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Shugui Hou, and Zheng Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3897–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed that considers glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrology. We utilized it to simulate future changes in cryosphere and hydrology in the Hulu catchment. Our projections showed the two glaciers will melt completely around 2050, snow cover will reduce, and permafrost will degrade. For hydrology, runoff will decrease after the glacier has melted, and permafrost degradation will increase baseflow.
Henry M. Zimba, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Kawawa E. Banda, Petra Hulsman, Nick van de Giesen, Imasiku A. Nyambe, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3633–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The fall and flushing of new leaves in the miombo woodlands co-occur in the dry season before the commencement of seasonal rainfall. The miombo species are also said to have access to soil moisture in deep soils, including groundwater in the dry season. Satellite-based evaporation estimates, temporal trends, and magnitudes differ the most in the dry season, most likely due to inadequate understanding and representation of the highlighted miombo species attributes in simulations.
Jean-Luc Martel, François Brissette, Richard Arsenault, Richard Turcotte, Mariana Castañeda-Gonzalez, William Armstrong, Edouard Mailhot, Jasmine Pelletier-Dumont, Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse, and Louis-Philippe Caron
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2133, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study compares Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks with traditional hydrological models to predict future streamflow under climate change. Using data from 148 catchments, it finds that LSTM models, which learn from extensive data sequences, perform differently and often better than traditional hydrolgical models. The continental LSTM model, which includes data from diverse climate zones, is particularly effective for understanding climate impacts on water resources.
Louise Akemi Kuana, Arlan Scortegagna Almeida, Emílio Graciliano Ferreira Mercuri, and Steffen Manfred Noe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3367–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The authors compared regionalization methods for river flow prediction in 126 catchments from the south of Brazil, a region with humid subtropical and hot temperate climate. The regionalization method based on physiographic–climatic similarity had the best performance for predicting daily and Q95 reference flow. We showed that basins without flow monitoring can have a good approximation of streamflow using machine learning and physiographic–climatic information as inputs.
Huy Dang and Yadu Pokhrel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3347–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By examining basin-wide simulations of a river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we present evidence that climate variation was a key driver of hydrologic variabilities in the Mekong River basin (MRB) over the long term; however, dams have largely altered the seasonality of the Mekong’s flow regime and annual flooding patterns in major downstream areas in recent years. These findings could help us rethink the planning of future dams and water resource management in the MRB.
Yongshin Lee, Francesca Pianosi, Andres Peñuela, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3261–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following recent advancements in weather prediction technology, we explored how seasonal weather forecasts (1 or more months ahead) could benefit practical water management in South Korea. Our findings highlight that using seasonal weather forecasts for predicting flow patterns 1 to 3 months ahead is effective, especially during dry years. This suggest that seasonal weather forecasts can be helpful in improving the management of water resources.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3161–3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding worsens due to climate change, with river dynamics being a key in local flood control. Predicting post-storm geomorphic changes is challenging. Using self-organizing maps and machine learning, this study forecasts post-storm alterations in stage–discharge relationships across 3101 US stream gages. The provided framework can aid in updating hazard assessments by identifying rivers prone to change, integrating channel adjustments into flood hazard assessment.
Cited articles
Barnett, T. P., Adam, J. C., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Potential impacts of a
warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Nature,
438, 303–309, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04141, 2005.
Barnhart, T. B., Molotch, N. P., Livneh, B., Harpold, A. A., Knowles, J. F.,
and Schneider, D.: Snowmelt rate dictates streamflow, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
43, 8006–8016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069690, 2016.
Beaudoing, H., Rodell, M., and NASA/GSFC/HSL: GLDAS Noah Land Surface Model L4 3 hourly 0.25×0.25∘ V2.1, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/E7TYRXPJKWOQ (last access: 9 September 2022), 2020.
Beck, H. E., Wood, E. F., Pan, M., Fisher, C. K., Miralles, D. M., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., McVicar, T. R., and Adler, R. F.: MSWEP V2 global 3hourly 0.1∘ precipitation: methodology and quantitative assessment, GloH2O, [data set], http://www.gloh2o.org/mswx/ (last access: 9 September 2022), 2019.
Bian, Q., Xu, Z., Zheng, H., Li, K.,
Liang, J., Fei, W., Shi, C., Zhang, S.,
and Yang, Z.: Multiscale Changes in Snow Over the Tibetan Plateau
During 1980–2018 Represented by Reanalysis Data Sets and Satellite
Observations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD031914,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031914, 2020.
Bibi, S., Wang, L., Li, X. P., Zhou, J., Chen, D. L., and Yao, T. D.: Climatic
and associated cryospheric, biospheric, and hydrological changes on the
Tibetan Plateau: a review, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 1–17,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5411, 2018.
Biemans, H., Siderius, C., Lutz, A. F., Nepal, S., Ahmad, B., Hassan, T.,
von Bloh, W., Wijngaard, R. R., Wester, P., Shrestha, A. B., and Immerzeel
W. W.: Importance of snow and glacier meltwater for agriculture on the
Indo-Gangetic Plain, Nat. Sustain., 2, 594–601,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0305-3, 2019.
Beck, H. E., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Levizzani, V., Schellekens, J., Miralles, D. G., Martens, B., and de Roo, A.: MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25∘ global gridded precipitation (1979–2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 589–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-589-2017, 2017.
Chen, D. L., Xu, B. Q. Yao, T. D., Guo, Z. T., Cui, P., Chen, F. H., Zhang,
R. H., Zhang, X. Z., Zhang, Y. L., Fan, J. Hou, Z. Q., and Zhang, T. H.:
Assessment of past, present and future environmental changes on the Tibetan
Plateau, Chin. Sci. Bull., 60, 3025–3035,
https://doi.org/10.1360/N972014-01370, 2015.
China Meteorological Administration: Hourly observations from ground weather stations in China, National Meteorological Science Data Center, [data set], http://data.cma.cn/data/cdcdetail/dataCode/A.0012.0001.html, last access: 9 September 2022.
Cuo, L., Zhang, Y. X., Zhu, F., and Liang, L. Q.: Characteristics and
changes of streamflow on the Tibetan Plateau: A review, J. Hydrol.-Reg.
Stud.,
2, 49–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2014.08.004, 2014.
Chen, Y. P., Gagen, M. H., Chen, F., Zhang, H. L., Shang, H. M., and Xu, H.
F.: Precipitation variations recorded in tree rings from the upper Salween
and Brahmaputra River valleys, China. Ecol. Indi., 113, 106189, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106189, 2020.
Cucchi, M., Weedon, G. P., Amici, A., Bellouin, N., Lange, S., Müller Schmied, H., Hersbach, H., and Buontempo, C.: WFDE5: bias-adjusted ERA5 reanalysis data for impact studies, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2097–2120, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2097-2020, 2020.
Cuo, L., Beyene, T. K., Voisin, N., Su, F. G., Lettenmaier, D. P., Alberti,
M., and Richey, J. E.: Effects of mid-twenty-first century climate and land
cover change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin, Washington, Hydrol. Proc., 25,
1729–1753, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7932, 2 011.
Ding, Y. J., Zhang, S. Q., Wu, J. K., Zhao, Q. D., Li, X. Y., and Qin, J.:
Recent progress on studies on cryospheric hydrological processes changes in
China, Adv. Water Sci.,
31, 690–702, https://doi.org/10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2020.05.006,
2020.
Ding, J., Yan, H., Xue, S., Feng, J., and Chen, Z.: Study on cooperative
development of water resources for international rivers in Southeast Asia,
J. Water Resour,
26, 97–102, https://doi.org/10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.02.018, 2015.
Earth Resources Observation and Science Center: A global land cover database primarily derived from 1992 to 1993 1-km AVHRR data, The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS), [data set], https://doi.org/10.5066/F7GB230D (last access: 9 September 2022), 1997.
Etchevers, P., Durand, Y., Habets, F., Martin, E., and Noilhan, J.: Impact
of spatial resolution on the hydrological simulation of the Durance
high-Alpine catchment, France, Ann. Glaciol., 32, 87–92, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756401781819337, 2001.
Fan, H. and He, D. M.: Regional climate and its change in the Nujiang River
basin, Acta Geogr. Sin., 67, 621–630,
https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201205005, 2012.
FAO: Digital soil map of the world and derived soil properties, Land and
Water Digital Media Series Rev. 1, United Nations Food and Agriculture
Organization CD-ROM, 2003.
Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations, Land and Water Develepment Division: Digital soil map of the world and derived soil properties, FAO, [data set], https://data.apps.fao.org/map/catalog/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/446ed430-8383-11db-b9b2-000d939bc5d8, (last access: 9 September 2022), 2003.
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO): MERRA-2 tavg1_2d_flx_Nx: 2d,1-Hourly,Time-Averaged,Single-Level,Assimilation,Surface Flux Diagnostics V5.12.4, Greenbelt, MD, USA, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/7MCPBJ41Y0K6, (last access: 9 September 2022), 2015.
Guo, J. H. (Eds.): Hydrogeography of western Sichuan and northern Yunnan, Scientific Publishing (China), BeiJing, China, 1985.
Guo, W. Q., Liu, S. Y., Xu, L., Wu, L. Z., Shangguan, D. H., Yao, X. J.,
Wei, J. F., Bao, W. J., Yu, P. C., Liu, Q., and Jiang, Z. L.: The second
Chinese glacier inventory: data, methods and results, J. Glaciol., 61,
357–372, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG14J209, 2015.
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F.: Decomposition
of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for
impr oving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003, 2009.
He, J., Yang, K., Tang, W., Lu, H., Qin, J., Chen, Y., and Li, X.: The first
high-resolution meteorological forcing dataset for land process studies over
China, Sci. Data, 7, 25,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0369-y, 2020.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1959 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS), [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47 (last access: 9 September 2022), 2019.
He, D., Zhao, W., and Feng, Y.: Research progress of international rivers
in China, J. Geogr. Sci. 14, 21–28,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02841103, 2004.
Henderson, G. R., Peings, Y., Furtado, J. C., and Kushner, P. J.:
Snow-atmosphere coupling in the Northern Hemisphere, Nat. Clim. Change, 8,
954–963, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048049, 2018.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz-Sabater, J., et al.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803,
2020.
Hock, R., Rasul, G., Adler, C., Cáceres, B., Gruber, S., Hirabayashi, Y.,
Jackson, M., Kääb, A., Kang, S., Kutuzov, S., Milner, A., Molau, U., Morin,
S., Orlove, B., and Steltzer, H.: High Mountain Areas, in: IPCC Special Report
on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C.,
Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K.,
Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., Weyer, N. M.,
https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-2/ (last access: 9 September 2022), 2019.
Hong, M. and He S.: Spatial and Temporal Change of Rainfall in Nujiang Basin
in Recent 50 Years, Res. Soil Water Conser., 26, 248–252,
https://doi.org/10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2019.03.036, 2019.
Huning, L. S. and AghaKouchak, A.: Global snow drought hot spots and
characteristics, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 19753–19759,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1915921117, 2020.
Immerzeel, W. W., Lutz, A. F., Andrade, M., Bahl, A., Biemans, H., Bolch, T.,
Hyde, S., Brumby, S., Davies, B.J., Elmore, A. C., Emmer, A., Feng, M.,
Fernandez, A., Haritashya, U., Kargel, J. S., Koppes, M.,
Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Kulkarni, A. V., Mayewski, P. A., Nepal, S.,
Pacheco, P., Painter, T. H., Pellicciotti, F., Rajaram, H., Rupper, S.,
Sinisalo, A., Shrestha, A. B., Viviroli, D., Wada, Y., Xiao, C., Yao, T.,
and Baillie, J. E. M.: Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers,
Nature, 577, 364–369,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1822-y, 2020.
Immerzeel, W. W., Van Beek, L. P., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Climate change
will affect the Asian water towers, Science, 328, 1382–1385,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1183188, 2010.
IPCC, 2019: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing
Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V.,
Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegrie, A.,
Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., IPCC, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srocc/ (last access: 9 September 2022), 2019.
Jarvis, A., Reuter, H. I., Nelson, A., and Guevara, E.: Hole-filled SRTM for the globe Version 4, available from the CGIAR-CSI SRTM 90m Database, [data set], http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org, (last access: 9 September 2022), 2008.
Jia, X., Zhang, C., Wu, R. G., and Qian, Q. F.: Influence of Tibetan Plateau
autumn snow cover on interannual variations in spring precipitation over
southern China, Clim. Dynam., 56, 767–782,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05497-8, 2021.
Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Stigter, E. E., Yao, T. D., and Immerzeel, W. W.:
Climate change decisive for Asia's snow meltwater supply, Nat. Clim. Chang.,
1, 591–597, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01074-x, 2021.
Khanal, S., Lutz, A. F., Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., van den Hurk, B., Yao, T.,
and Immerzeel, W. W.: Variable 21st century climate change response for
rivers in High Mountain Asia at seasonal to decadal time scales, Water
Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR029266,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029266, 2021.
Kapnick, S., Delworth, T., Ashfaq, M., Malyshev, S., and Milly, P. C. D.:
Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas due to a
unique seasonal cycle, Nat. Geosci., 7, 834–840,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2269, 2014.
Lange, S. and Büchner, M.: ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted atmospheric climate input data (v1.1). ISIMIP Repository, [data set], https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.842396.1 (last access: 9 September 2022), 2021.
Li, H., Li, X., Yang, D., Wang, J., Gao, B., Pan, X., Zhang, Y., and Hao, X.:
Tracing snowmelt paths in an integrated hydrological model for understanding
seasonal snowmelt contribution at basin scale, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124,
8874–8895, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030760, 2019.
Li, W., Guo, W., Qiu, B., Xue, Y., Hu, P., and Wei, J.: Influence of
Tibetan Plateau snow cover on East Asian atmospheric circulation at
medium-range time scales, Nat. Commun., 9, 4243,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06762-5, 2018.
Liang, S. L.: The Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) Product Suite, National Earth System Science Data Center, National Science & Technology Infrastructure of China, [data set], https://doi.org/10.12041/geodata.GLASS_LAI_MODIS(0.05D).ver1.db (last access: 9 September 2022), 2015.
Lutz, A., Immerzeel, W. W., Shrestha, A. B., and Bierkens, M. F. P.:
Consistent increase in High Asia's runoff due to increasing glacier melt and
precipitation, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 587–592,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2237, 2014.
Liu, S., Ding W., Mo X. G., Wang S., Liu C., Luo X., He D., Bajracharya, S.
R., Shrestha, A., and Agrawal, N. K.: Climate Change and Its Impact on
Runoff in Lancang and Nujiang River Basins, Adv. Clim. Change Res., 13,
356–365, 2017.
Luo, X., He, D. M., Ji, X. Lu, Y., and Li, Y.: Low Flow Variations in the
Middle and Upper Nujiang River Basin and Possible Responds to Climate Change
in Recent 50 Years, Acta Geogr. Sin., 36, 107–113,
https//doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.01.013, 2016.
Liu, C., Bai, P., Wang, Z., Liu S., and Liu, X. M.: Study on prediction of
ungaged basins case study on the Tibetan Platea, J. Hydra. Eng., 47,
272–282, https://doi.org/10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20150925, 2016.
Liu, S., Yan, D., Wang, H., Qin, T., Wen, B., and Lu, Y.: Separation of
snowfall from precipitation and its evolution trend and reasons analysis in
upper reaches of Nujiang River Basin, J. Hydra. Eng., 49, 254–262,
https//doi.org/10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20160789, 2018.
Liu, W., Wang, L., Sun, F., Li, Z., Wang, H., Liu, J., Yang, T., Zhou, J.,
and Qi, J.: Snow hydrology in the upper Yellow River basin under climate
change: A land surface modeling perspective. J. Geophys. Res-Atmos., 123,
12676–12691, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028984, 2018.
Li, C., Su, F., Yang, D., Tong, K., Meng, F., and Kan, B.: Spatiotemporal
variation of snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau based on MODIS snow
product, 2001–2014, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 708–728,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5204, 2017.
Lange, S. and Büchner, M.: ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted atmospheric climate
input data (v1.1), ISIMIP Repository,
https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.842396.1, 2021a.
Lange, S.: Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with ISIMIP3BASD (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3055–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3055-2019, 2019.
Lange, S.: ISIMIP3BASD v2.5.0, Zenodo,
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4686991, 2021b.
Lange, S., Menz, C., Gleixner, S., Cucchi, M., Weedon, G. P., Amici, A.,
Bellouin, N., Schmied, H. M., Hersbach, H., Buontempo, C., and Cagnazzo, C.:
WFDE5 over land merged with ERA5 over the ocean (W5E5 v2.0),
https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.342217, 2021c.
Muhammad, S.: Improved daily MODIS TERRA/AQUA Snow and Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI6.0) data for High Mountain Asia (2002–2019), PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA, (last access: 9 September 2022), 2020.
Musselman, K. N., Addor, N., Vano, J. A., and Molotch, N. P.: Winter melt
trends portend widespread declines in snow water resources, Nat. Clim.
Change, 11, 418–424,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01014-9, 2021.
Mao, R. J., Wang, L., Zhou, J., Liu, X. P., Qi, J., and Zhong, X. Y.:
Evaluation of Various Precipitation Products Using Ground-Based Discharge
Observation at the Nujiang River Basin, China, Water, 11, 2308,
https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112308, 2019.
Muhammad, S. and Thapa, A.: An improved Terra–Aqua MODIS snow cover and Randolph Glacier Inventory 6.0 combined product (MOYDGL06∗) for high-mountain Asia between 2002 and 2018, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 345–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-345-2020, 2020.
Marty, C., Tilg, A., and Jonas, T.: Recent Evidence of Large-Scale Receding
Snow Water Equivalents in the European Alps, J. Hydrometeorol., 18,
1021–1031, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0188.1, 2017.
Nepal, S., Flügel, W. A., and Shrestha, A. B.: Upstream-downstream
linkages of hydrological processes in the Himalayan region, Ecol. Proc.,
3, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-014-0019-4, 2014.
Nepal, S., Khatiwada, K. R., Pradhananga, S., Kralisch, S., Samyn, D.,
Bromand, M. T., Jamal, N., Dildar, M., Durrani, F., Rassouly F., Azizi, F.,
Salehi, W., Malikzooi, R., Krause, P., Koirala, S., and Chevallier, P.:
Future snow projecteds in a small basin of the Western Himalaya, Sci. Total
Environ., 795,
148587, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148587, 2021.
Pulliainen, J., Luojus, K., Derksen, C., Mudryk, L., Lemmetyinen, J.,
Salminen, M., Ikonen, J., Takala, M., Cohen, J., Smolander, T., and Norberg,
J.: Patterns and trends of Northern Hemisphere snow mass from 1980 to 2018,
Nature, 581, 294–298,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2258-0, 2020.
Panday, P. K., Thibeault, J., and Frey, K. E.: Changing temperature and
precipitation extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region: an analysis of
CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations and projecteds, Int. J. Climatol., 35,
3058–3077, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4192, 2015.
Qin, Y., Abatzoglou, J. T., Siebert, S., Huning, L. S., AghaKouchak, A.,
Mankin, J. S., Hong, C., Tong, D., Davis, S. J., and Mueller, N. D.:
Agricultural risks from changing snowmelt, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 459–465,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0746-8, 2020.
Qi, J., Wang, L., Zhou, J., Song, L., Li, X. P., and Zeng, T.: Coupled Snow
and Frozen Ground Physics Improves Cold Region Hydrological Simulations: An
Evaluation at the upper Yangtze River Basin (Tibetan Plateau), J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 124, 12985–13004,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031622, 2019.
Qi, W., Feng, L., Yang, H., and Liu, J.: Warming winter, drying spring and
shifting hydrological regimes in Northeast China under climate change, J.
Hydrol., 606, 127390,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127390, 2022.
Qi, W., Feng, L., Liu, J., and Yang, H.: Snow as an important natural
reservoir for runoff and soil moisture in Northeast China. J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 125, e2020JD033086,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033086, 2020.
Shrestha, M., Wang, L., Koike, T., Xue, Y., and Hirabayashi, Y.: Improving the snow physics of WEB-DHM and its point evaluation at the SnowMIP sites, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2577–2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2577-2010, 2010.
Shrestha, M., Wang, L., Koike, T., Tsutsui, H., Xue, Y., and Hirabayashi, Y.: Correcting basin-scale snowfall in a mountainous basin using a distributed snowmelt model and remote-sensing data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 747–761, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-747-2014, 2014.
Sanjay, J., Krishnan, R., Shrestha, A. B., Rajbhandari, R., and Ren, G. Y.:
Downscaled climate change projecteds for the Hindu Kush Himalayan region
using CORDEX South Asia regional climate models, Adv. Clim. Change Res., 8,
185–198, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.08.003, 2017.
Su, F., Zhang L., Ou, T., Chen, D., Yao, T., and Tong, K.: Hydrological
response to future climate changes for the major upstream river basins in
the Tibetan Plateau, Global Planet. Change, 136, 82–95,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.10.012, 2016.
Song, L., Wang, L., Li, X. P., Zhou, J., Luo, D. L., Jin, H. J., Qi, J.,
Zeng, T., and Yin, Y. Y.: Improving permafrost physics in a distributed
cryosphere-hydrology model and its evaluations at the upper Yellow River
Basin, J. Geophys. Res-Atmos., 125, e2020JD032916,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032916, 2020.
Scherrer, S. C., Ceppi, P., Croci-Maspoli, M., and Appenzeller, C.:
Snow-albedo feedback and Swiss spring temperature trends, Theor. Appl.
Climatol., 110, 509–516,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0712-0, 2012.
Sohrabi, M. M., Tonina, D., Benjankar, R.,Kumar, M., Kormos, P., Marks, D.
and Luce, C.: On the role of spatial resolution on snow estimates using a
process-based snow model across a range of climatology and elevation,
Hydrol. Proc., 33, 1260–1275, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13397, 2019.
Tang, Q. H., Cuo, L., Su, F. G., Liu, X. C., Sun, H., Ding, J., Wang, L.,
Leng, G. Y., Zhang, Y. Q., Sang, Y. F., Fang, H. Y., Zhang, S. F., Han, D.
M., Liu, X. M., He, L., Xu, X. M., Tang, Y., and Chen, D. L.: Streamflow
change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its impacts, Chin. Sci. Bull., 64,
2807–2821, https://doi.org/10.1360/TB-2019-0141, 2019.
Tang, Q. H., Liu, X. C., Zhou, Y. Y., Wang, J., and Yun, X. B.: Cascading
Impacts of Asian Water Tower Change on Downstream Water Systems, Bull. Chin.
Acad. Sci., 34, 1306–1312,
https://doi.org/10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2019.11.013, 2019.
Viviroli, D., Kummu, M., Meybeck, M., Kallio, M., and Wada, Y.: Increasing
dependence of lowland populations on mountain water resources, Nat. Sustain.,
3, 917–928, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0559-9, 2020.
Wan, Z.: New refinements and validation of the collection-6 MODIS
land-surface temperature/emissivity product, Remote Sens. Environ., 140,
36–45, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2013.08.027, 2014.
Wan, Z., Hook, S., and Hulley, G.: MYD11A2 MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1 km SIN Grid V006, NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MYD11A2.006 (last access: 9 September 2022), 2015.
Wang, L., Sun, L. T., Shrestha, M., Li, X. P., Liu, W. B., Zhou, J., Yang,
K., Lu, H., and Chen, D. L.: Improving snow process modeling with
satellitebased estimation of near-surface-air-temperature lapse rate, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 12005–12030,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025506, 2016.
Wang, L., Yao, T. D., Chai, C. H., Cuo, L., Su, F. G., Zhang, F., Yao, Z.,
Zhang, Y. S., Li, X. P., Qi, J., Hu, Z. D., Liu, J. S., and Wang, Y. W.:
TP-River: Monitoring and Quantifying Total River Runoff from the Third Pole,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, 948–965,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0207.1, 2020.
Wang, L., Koike, T., Yang, K., and Yeh, J. F.: Assessment of a distributed
biosphere hydrological model against streamflow and MODIS land surface
temperature in the upper Tone River Basin, J. Hydrol., 377, 21–34,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.005, 2009b.
Wang, L., Koike, T., Yang, K., Jin, R., and Li, H.: Frozen soil parameterization in a distributed biosphere hydrological model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 557–571, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-557-2010, 2010.
Wang, L., Zhou, J., Qi, J., Sun, L., Yang, K., Tian, L., Lin, Y., Liu, W.,
Shrestha, M., Xue, Y., Koike, T., Ma, Y., Li, X., Chen, Y., Chen, D., Piao,
S., and Lu, H.: Development of a land surface model with coupled snow and
frozen soil physics, Water Resour. Res., 53, 5085–5103,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020451, 2017.
Winstral, A., Marks, D., and Gurney, R: Assessing the Sensitivities of a
Distributed Snow Model to Forcing Data Resolution, J. Hydrometeorol., 15,
1366–1383, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0169.1, 2014.
Xiao, L., Che, T., Chen, L., Xie, H., and Dai, L.: Quantifying Snow Albedo
Radiative Forcing and Its Feedback during 2003–2016, Remote Sens., 9, 883,
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9090883, 2017.
Xu, W., Ma, L., Ma, M., Zhang, H., and Yuan, W.: Spatial-temporal
variability of snow cover and depth in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, J.
Climate, 30, 1521–1533, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0732.1, 2017.
Xiao, Z., Liang, S., Wang, J., Chen, P., Yin, X., Zhang, L., and Song, J.: Use
of general regression neural networks for generating the GLASS Leaf Area
Index Product from Time Series MODIS Surface Reflectance, IEEE T. Geosci.
Remote, 52, 209–223,
https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2013.2237780, 2014.
Xue, B., Wang, L., Yang, K., Tian, L., Qin, J., Chen, Y., Zhao, L., Ma, Y.,
Koike, T., Hu, Z., and Li, X.: Modeling the land surface water and energy
cycles of a mesoscale watershed in the central Tibetan Plateau during summer
with a distributed hydrological model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos, 118,
8857–8868, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50696, 2013.
Yan, D., Ma, N., and Zhang, Y.: Development of a fine-resolution snow depth
product based on the snow cover probability for the Tibetan Plateau:
Validation and spatial-temporal analyses, J. Hydrol., 604, 127027,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127027, 2022.
You, Q., Wu, T., Shen, L., Pepin, N., Zhang, L., Jiang, Z., Wu, Z., Kang,
S., and AghaKouchak, A.: Review of snow cover variation over the Tibetan Plateau
and its influence on the broad climate system, Earth-Sci. Rev., 201, 103043,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.103043, 2020.
Yao, T., Xue, Y., Chen, D., Chen, F., Thompson, L., Cui, P., Koike, T., Lau,
W. K., Lettenmaier, D., Mosbrugger, V., Zhang, R., Xu, B., Dozier, J.,
Gillespie, T., Gu, Y., Kang, S., Piao, S., Sugimoto, S., Ueno, K., Wang, L.,
Wang, W., Zhang, F., Sheng, Y., Guo, W., Yang, X., Ma, Y., Shen, S. S. P.,
Su, Z., Chen, F., Liang, S., Liu, Y., Singh, V. P., Yang, K., Yang, D.,
Zhao, X., Qian, Y., Zhang, Y., and Li, Q.: Recent Third Pole's rapid warming
accompanies cryospheric melt and water cycle intensification and
interactions between monsoon and environment: Multidisciplinary approach
with observations, modeling, and analysis, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100,
423–444, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0057.1, 2019.
Yao, T., Wu, G., Xu, B., Wang, W., Gao, J., and An, B.: Asian Water Tower
Change and Its Impacts, Bull. Chin. Acad. Sci., 34, 1203–1209,
https://doi.org/10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2019.11.003, 2019.
Yao, Z., Duan, R., and Liu, Z.: Changes in Precipitation and Air Temperature
and Its Impacts on Runoff in the Nujiang River basin, Resour. Sci., 34,
202–210, 2012.
You, W., Wu, X., and Guo, Z.: Transboundary flow change features of the
Nujiang river in the longitudinal range gorge region, Mount. Res., 26,
22–28, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1008-2786.2008.01.005, 2008.
Yang, K. and He, J.: China meteorological forcing dataset (1979–2018), National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, [data set], https://doi.org/10.11888/AtmosphericPhysics.tpe.249369.file, (last access: 9 September 2022), 2019.
Yang, F., Lu, H., Yang, K., Huang, G., Li, Y., Wang, W., Lu, P., Tian, F.,
and Huang, Y.: Hydrological characteristics and changes in the Nu-Salween
River basin revealed with model-based reconstructed data, J. Mt. Sci., 18,
2982–3002, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-021-6727-1, 2021.
Yang, Y., Wen, B., Yan, Y., Niu, Y., Dai, Y., Li, M., and Gong, X.:
Partitioning the contributions of cryospheric change to the increase of
streamflow on the Nu river, J. Hydrol., 598, 126330,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126330, 2021.
Zhao, Q., Wang, J., Gao, H., Zhang, S., Zhao, C., Xu, J., Han, H., and
Shangguan D.: Projecting climate change impacts on hydrological processes on
the Tibetan Plateau with model calibration against the glacier inventory
data and observed streamflow, J. Hydrol., 573, 60–81,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.043, 2019.
Zhang, W., Xiao, Z., Zheng, J., and Ren, J.: Long-term variation
characteristics of Nujiang River discharge and its response to climate
change, Chin. Sci. Bull., 52, 135–141,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-007-7019-z, 2007.
Zhong, X., Wang, L., Zhou, J., Li, X., and Wang, Y.: Precipitation Dominates
Long-Term Water Storage Changes in Nam Co Lake (Tibetan Plateau) Accompanied
by Intensified Cryosphere Melts Revealed by a Basin-Wide Hydrological
Modelling, Remote Sens-Base, 12, 1926,
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12121926, 2020.
Zhou, J., Wang, L., Zhong, X., Yao, T., Qi, J., Wang, Y., and Xue, Y.:
Quantifying the major drivers for the expanding lakes in the interior
Tibetan Plateau, Sci. Bull., 67, 474–478,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.11.010, 2021.
Short summary
This work quantifies future snow changes and their impacts on hydrology in the upper Salween River (USR) under SSP126 and SSP585 using a cryosphere–hydrology model. Future warm–wet climate is not conducive to the development of snow. The rain–snow-dominated pattern of runoff will shift to a rain-dominated pattern after the 2040s under SSP585 but is unchanged under SSP126. The findings improve our understanding of cryosphere–hydrology processes and can assist water resource management in the USR.
This work quantifies future snow changes and their impacts on hydrology in the upper Salween...
