Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-245-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-245-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
Research article
 | 
18 Jan 2022
Research article |  | 18 Jan 2022

Disentangling sources of future uncertainties for water management in sub-Saharan river basins

Alessandro Amaranto, Dinis Juizo, and Andrea Castelletti

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Cited articles

Amaranto, A., Pianosi, F., Solomatine, D., Corzo, G., and Munoz-Arriola, F.: Sensitivity analysis of data-driven groundwater forecasts to hydroclimatic controls in irrigated croplands, J. Hydrol., 587, 124957, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124957, 2020. a, b
Amaranto, A.: Data from: Disentangling sources of future uncertainties for water management in sub-Saharan river basins [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5841294, 2022a a
Amaranto, A.: Codes from: Disentangling sources of future uncertainties for water management in sub-Saharan river basins [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5841224, 2022b a
Bertoni, F., Castelletti, A., Giuliani, M., and Reed, P.: Discovering Dependencies, Trade-offs, and Robustness in Joint Dam Design and Operation: An Ex-post Assessment of the Kariba Dam, Earth's Future, 7, 1367–1390, 2019. a
Beven, K. and Binley, A.: The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction, Hydrol. Process., 6, 279–298, 1992. a, b
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Short summary
This study aims at designing water supply strategies that are robust against climate, social, and land use changes in a sub-Saharan river basin. We found that robustness analysis supports the discovery of policies enhancing the resilience of water resources systems, benefiting the agricultural, energy, and urban sectors. We show how energy sustainability is affected by water availability, while urban and irrigation resilience also depends on infrastructural interventions and land use changes.
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