Articles | Volume 25, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6339-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6339-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Dec 2021
Research article |
| 16 Dec 2021
| 16 Dec 2021
Quantifying the impacts of land cover change on hydrological responses in the Mahanadi river basin in India
Civil Engineering Department, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK
Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Civil Engineering Department, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK
Rafael Rosolem
Civil Engineering Department, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK
Related authors
Shaini Naha, Miguel A. Rico-Ramirez, and Rafael Rosolem
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-220, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-220, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Rapid growth in population in developing countries leads to an increase in food demand and as a consequence, percentages of land are being converted to cropland which alters the river flow processes. Therefore we try to understand the exact role of these changes in modifying the river flows through the prediction of the impacts of these changes in the future by taking a clue from the past. This study concludes that recurrent flood events might be influenced by these changes in future.
Eshrat Fatima, Rohini Kumar, Sabine Attinger, Maren Kaluza, Oldrich Rakovec, Corinna Rebmann, Rafael Rosolem, Sascha E. Oswald, Luis Samaniego, Steffen Zacharias, and Martin Schrön
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5419–5441, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study establishes a framework to incorporate cosmic-ray neutron measurements into the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). We evaluate different approaches to estimate neutron counts within the mHM using the Desilets equation, with uniformly and non-uniformly weighted average soil moisture, and the physically based code COSMIC. The data improved not only soil moisture simulations but also the parameterisation of evapotranspiration in the model.
Yongshin Lee, Francesca Pianosi, Andres Peñuela, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3261–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following recent advancements in weather prediction technology, we explored how seasonal weather forecasts (1 or more months ahead) could benefit practical water management in South Korea. Our findings highlight that using seasonal weather forecasts for predicting flow patterns 1 to 3 months ahead is effective, especially during dry years. This suggest that seasonal weather forecasts can be helpful in improving the management of water resources.
Yongshin Lee, Andres Peñuela, Francesca Pianosi, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1985, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the value of Seasonal Flow Forecasts (SFFs) in informing decision-making for drought management in South Korea and introduces a novel method for assessing value benchmarked against historical operations. Our results show the importance of considering flow forecast uncertainty in reservoir operations. But the difference in value between SFFs and Ensemble Streamflow Prediction is negligible. The method for selecting a compromise release schedule is a key control of the value.
Yanchen Zheng, Gemma Coxon, Ross Woods, Daniel Power, Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez, David McJannet, Rafael Rosolem, Jianzhu Li, and Ping Feng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1999–2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1999-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1999-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reanalysis soil moisture products are a vital basis for hydrological and environmental research. Previous product evaluation is limited by the scale difference (point and grid scale). This paper adopts cosmic ray neutron sensor observations, a novel technique that provides root-zone soil moisture at field scale. In this paper, global harmonized CRNS observations were used to assess products. ERA5-Land, SMAPL4, CFSv2, CRA40 and GLEAM show better performance than MERRA2, GLDAS-Noah and JRA55.
Dagmawi Teklu Asfaw, Michael Bliss Singer, Rafael Rosolem, David MacLeod, Mark Cuthbert, Edisson Quichimbo Miguitama, Manuel F. Rios Gaona, and Katerina Michaelides
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 557–571, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-557-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-557-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
stoPET is a new stochastic potential evapotranspiration (PET) generator for the globe at hourly resolution. Many stochastic weather generators are used to generate stochastic rainfall time series; however, no such model exists for stochastically generating plausible PET time series. As such, stoPET represents a significant methodological advance. stoPET generate many realizations of PET to conduct climate studies related to the water balance, agriculture, water resources, and ecology.
Heye Reemt Bogena, Martin Schrön, Jannis Jakobi, Patrizia Ney, Steffen Zacharias, Mie Andreasen, Roland Baatz, David Boorman, Mustafa Berk Duygu, Miguel Angel Eguibar-Galán, Benjamin Fersch, Till Franke, Josie Geris, María González Sanchis, Yann Kerr, Tobias Korf, Zalalem Mengistu, Arnaud Mialon, Paolo Nasta, Jerzy Nitychoruk, Vassilios Pisinaras, Daniel Rasche, Rafael Rosolem, Hami Said, Paul Schattan, Marek Zreda, Stefan Achleitner, Eduardo Albentosa-Hernández, Zuhal Akyürek, Theresa Blume, Antonio del Campo, Davide Canone, Katya Dimitrova-Petrova, John G. Evans, Stefano Ferraris, Félix Frances, Davide Gisolo, Andreas Güntner, Frank Herrmann, Joost Iwema, Karsten H. Jensen, Harald Kunstmann, Antonio Lidón, Majken Caroline Looms, Sascha Oswald, Andreas Panagopoulos, Amol Patil, Daniel Power, Corinna Rebmann, Nunzio Romano, Lena Scheiffele, Sonia Seneviratne, Georg Weltin, and Harry Vereecken
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1125–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1125-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1125-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring of increasingly frequent droughts is a prerequisite for climate adaptation strategies. This data paper presents long-term soil moisture measurements recorded by 66 cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNS) operated by 24 institutions and distributed across major climate zones in Europe. Data processing followed harmonized protocols and state-of-the-art methods to generate consistent and comparable soil moisture products and to facilitate continental-scale analysis of hydrological extremes.
Daniel Sanchez-Rivas and Miguel A. Rico-Ramirez
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 503–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-503-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-503-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we review the use of quasi-vertical profiles for monitoring the calibration of the radar differential reflectivity ZDR. We validate the proposed method by comparing its results against the traditional approach based on measurements taken at 90°; we observed good agreement as the errors are within 0.2 dB. Additionally, we compare the results of the proposed method with ZDR derived from disdrometers; the errors are reasonable considering factors discussed in the paper.
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7545–7571, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater is increasingly being included in large-scale (continental to global) land surface and hydrologic simulations. However, it is challenging to evaluate these simulations because groundwater is
hiddenunderground and thus hard to measure. We suggest using multiple complementary strategies to assess the performance of a model (
model evaluation).
Daniel Power, Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez, Sharon Desilets, Darin Desilets, and Rafael Rosolem
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7287–7307, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Cosmic-ray neutron sensors estimate root-zone soil moisture at sub-kilometre scales. There are national-scale networks of these sensors across the globe; however, methods for converting neutron signals to soil moisture values are inconsistent. This paper describes our open-source Python tool that processes raw sensor data into soil moisture estimates. The aim is to allow a user to ensure they have a harmonized data set, along with informative metadata, to facilitate both research and teaching.
E. Andrés Quichimbo, Michael Bliss Singer, Katerina Michaelides, Daniel E. J. Hobley, Rafael Rosolem, and Mark O. Cuthbert
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6893–6917, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6893-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6893-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding and quantifying water partitioning in dryland regions are of key importance to anticipate the future impacts of climate change in water resources and dryland ecosystems. Here, we have developed a simple hydrological model (DRYP) that incorporates the key processes of water partitioning in drylands. DRYP is a modular, versatile, and parsimonious model that can be used to anticipate and plan for climatic and anthropogenic changes to water fluxes and storage in dryland regions.
Daniel Sanchez-Rivas and Miguel A. Rico-Ramirez
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 2873–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-2873-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-2873-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In our paper, we propose a robust and operational algorithm to determine the height of the melting level that can be applied to either quasi-vertical profiles (QVPs) or vertical profiles (VPs) of polarimetric radar variables. The algorithm is applied to 1 year of rainfall events that occurred over southeast England and validated using radiosonde data. The algorithm proves to be accurate as the errors (mean absolute error and root mean square error) are close to 200 m.
Isaac Kipkemoi, Katerina Michaelides, Rafael Rosolem, and Michael Bliss Singer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-48, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-48, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The work is a novel investigation of the role of temporal rainfall resolution and intensity in affecting the water balance of soil in a dryland environment. This research has implications for what rainfall data are used to assess the impact of climate and climate change on the regional water balance. This information is critical for anticipating the impact of a changing climate on dryland communities globally who need it to know when to plant their seeds or where livestock pasture is available.
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Shaini Naha, Miguel A. Rico-Ramirez, and Rafael Rosolem
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-220, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-220, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Rapid growth in population in developing countries leads to an increase in food demand and as a consequence, percentages of land are being converted to cropland which alters the river flow processes. Therefore we try to understand the exact role of these changes in modifying the river flows through the prediction of the impacts of these changes in the future by taking a clue from the past. This study concludes that recurrent flood events might be influenced by these changes in future.
Romane Berthelin, Michael Rinderer, Bartolomé Andreo, Andy Baker, Daniela Kilian, Gabriele Leonhardt, Annette Lotz, Kurt Lichtenwoehrer, Matías Mudarra, Ingrid Y. Padilla, Fernando Pantoja Agreda, Rafael Rosolem, Abel Vale, and Andreas Hartmann
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 9, 11–23, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-9-11-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-9-11-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present the setup of a soil moisture monitoring network, which is implemented at five karstic sites with different climates across the globe. More than 400 soil moisture probes operating at a high spatio-temporal resolution will improve the understanding of groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration processes in karstic areas.
Fanny Sarrazin, Andreas Hartmann, Francesca Pianosi, Rafael Rosolem, and Thorsten Wagener
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4933–4964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4933-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4933-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We propose the first large-scale vegetation–recharge model for karst regions (V2Karst), which enables the analysis of the impact of changes in climate and land cover on karst groundwater recharge. We demonstrate the plausibility of V2Karst simulations against observations at FLUXNET sites and of controlling modelled processes using sensitivity analysis. We perform virtual experiments to further test the model and gain insight into its sensitivity to precipitation pattern and vegetation cover.
Martin Schrön, Markus Köhli, Lena Scheiffele, Joost Iwema, Heye R. Bogena, Ling Lv, Edoardo Martini, Gabriele Baroni, Rafael Rosolem, Jannis Weimar, Juliane Mai, Matthias Cuntz, Corinna Rebmann, Sascha E. Oswald, Peter Dietrich, Ulrich Schmidt, and Steffen Zacharias
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5009–5030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5009-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5009-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A field-scale average of near-surface water content can be sensed by cosmic-ray neutron detectors. To interpret, calibrate, and validate the integral signal, it is important to account for its sensitivity to heterogeneous patterns like dry or wet spots. We show how point samples contribute to the neutron signal based on their depth and distance from the detector. This approach robustly improves the sensor performance and data consistency, and even reveals otherwise hidden hydrological features.
Joost Iwema, Rafael Rosolem, Mostaquimur Rahman, Eleanor Blyth, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2843–2861, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2843-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2843-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated whether the simulation of water flux from the land surface to the atmosphere (using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator model) could be improved by replacing traditional soil moisture sensor data with data from the more novel Cosmic-Ray Neutron soil moisture sensor. Despite observed differences between the two types of soil moisture measurement data, we found no substantial differences in improvement in water flux estimation, based on multiple calibration experiments.
Mostaquimur Rahman and Rafael Rosolem
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 459–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-459-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-459-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling water flow through chalk (a fine-grained porous medium traversed by fractures) is important for optimizing water resource management practices in the UK. However, efficient simulations of water movement through chalk are difficult due to the porous nature of chalk, creating high-velocity preferential flow paths. This paper describes a novel approach to representing chalk hydrology in land surface modelling for large-scale applications.
X. Han, X. Li, G. He, P. Kumbhar, C. Montzka, S. Kollet, T. Miyoshi, R. Rosolem, Y. Zhang, H. Vereecken, and H.-J. H. Franssen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-7395-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-7395-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
DasPy is a ready to use open source parallel multivariate land data assimilation framework with joint state and parameter estimation using Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. The Community Land Model (4.5) was integrated as model operator. The Community Microwave Emission Modelling platform, COsmic-ray Soil Moisture Interaction Code and the Two-Source Formulation were integrated as observation operators for the multivariate assimilation of soil moisture and soil temperature, respectively.
J. Iwema, R. Rosolem, R. Baatz, T. Wagener, and H. R. Bogena
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3203–3216, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3203-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3203-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The cosmic-ray neutron sensor can provide soil moisture content averages over areas of roughly half a kilometre by half a kilometre. Although this sensor is usually calibrated using soil samples taken on a single day, we found that multiple sampling days are needed. The calibration results were also affected by the soil wetness conditions of the sampling days. The outcome of this study will help researchers to calibrate/validate new cosmic-ray neutron sensor sites more accurately.
P. T. S. Oliveira, E. Wendland, M. A. Nearing, R. L. Scott, R. Rosolem, and H. R. da Rocha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2899–2910, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2899-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2899-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We determined the main components of the water balance for an undisturbed cerrado.
Evapotranspiration ranged from 1.91 to 2.60mm per day for the dry and wet seasons, respectively. Canopy interception ranged from 4 to 20% and stemflow values were approximately 1% of gross precipitation.
The average runoff coefficient was less than 1%, while cerrado deforestation has the potential to increase that amount up to 20-fold.
The water storage may be estimated by the difference between P and ET.
A. Hartmann, T. Gleeson, R. Rosolem, F. Pianosi, Y. Wada, and T. Wagener
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1729–1746, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1729-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1729-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new approach to assess karstic groundwater recharge over Europe and the Mediterranean. Cluster analysis is used to subdivide all karst regions into four typical karst landscapes and to simulate karst recharge with a process-based karst model. We estimate its parameters by a combination of a priori information and observations of soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Independent observations of recharge that present large-scale models significantly under-estimate karstic recharge.
X. Han, H.-J. H. Franssen, R. Rosolem, R. Jin, X. Li, and H. Vereecken
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 615–629, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-615-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-615-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the joint assimilation of cosmic-ray neutron counts and land surface temperature with parameter estimation of leaf area index at an irrigated corn field. The results show that the data assimilation can reduce the systematic input errors due to the lack of irrigation data. The estimations of soil moisture, evapotranspiration and leaf area index can be improved in the joint assimilation framework.
R. Rosolem, T. Hoar, A. Arellano, J. L. Anderson, W. J. Shuttleworth, X. Zeng, and T. E. Franz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4363–4379, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4363-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4363-2014, 2014
J. Shuttleworth, R. Rosolem, M. Zreda, and T. Franz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3205–3217, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3205-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3205-2013, 2013
T. E. Franz, M. Zreda, R. Rosolem, and T. P. A. Ferre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 453–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-453-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-453-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Heavy-tailed flood peak distributions: what is the effect of the spatial variability of rainfall and runoff generation?
State updating of the Xin'anjiang model: joint assimilating streamflow and multi-source soil moisture data via the asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter with enhanced error models
Improving the hydrological consistency of a process-based solute-transport model by simultaneous calibration of streamflow and stream concentrations
Leveraging a time-series event separation method to disentangle time-varying hydrologic controls on streamflow – application to wildfire-affected catchments
The significance of the leaf area index for evapotranspiration estimation in SWAT-T for characteristic land cover types of West Africa
Improved representation of soil moisture processes through incorporation of cosmic-ray neutron count measurements in a large-scale hydrologic model
Spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow in water-scarce Mediterranean basins
A large-sample modelling approach towards integrating streamflow and evaporation data for the Spanish catchments
Seasonal variation in land cover estimates reveals sensitivities and opportunities for environmental models
Estimating response times, flow velocities, and roughness coefficients of Canadian Prairie basins
Learning landscape features from streamflow with autoencoders
On the use of streamflow transformations for hydrological model calibration
Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators
Multi-scale soil moisture data and process-based modeling reveal the importance of lateral groundwater flow in a subarctic catchment
Catchment response to climatic variability: implications for root zone storage and streamflow predictions
Hybrid hydrological modeling for large alpine basins: a semi-distributed approach
Karst aquifer discharge response to rainfall interpreted as anomalous transport
HESS Opinions: Never train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network on a single basin
Large-sample hydrology – a few camels or a whole caravan?
Comment on “Are soils overrated in hydrology?” by Gao et al. (2023)
Projections of streamflow intermittence under climate change in European drying river networks
Multi-decadal fluctuations in root zone storage capacity through vegetation adaptation to hydro-climatic variability have minor effects on the hydrological response in the Neckar River basin, Germany
Extended range forecasting of stream water temperature with deep learning models
Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China
On the importance of plant phenology in the evaporative process of a semi-arid woodland: could it be why satellite-based evaporation estimates in the miombo differ?
Achieving water budget closure through physical hydrological processes modelling: insights from a large-sample study
Analyzing the generalization capabilities of hybrid hydrological models for extrapolation to extreme events
Regionalization of GR4J model parameters for river flow prediction in Paraná, Brazil
Evolution of river regimes in the Mekong River basin over 8 decades and the role of dams in recent hydrological extremes
Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea
To what extent do flood-inducing storm events change future flood hazards?
When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling
Runoff component quantification and future streamflow projection in a large mountainous basin based on a multidata-constrained cryospheric-hydrological model
Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble
Impacts of climate and land surface change on catchment evapotranspiration and runoff from 1951 to 2020 in Saxony, Germany
Quantifying and reducing flood forecast uncertainty by the CHUP-BMA method
Developing a tile drainage module for the Cold Regions Hydrological Model: lessons from a farm in southern Ontario, Canada
To bucket or not to bucket? Analyzing the performance and interpretability of hybrid hydrological models with dynamic parameterization
Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological modelling and regional climate projections
HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood
Scale-dependency in modeling nivo-glacial hydrological systems: the case of the Arolla basin, Switzerland
A diversity centric strategy for the selection of spatio-temporal training data for LSTM-based streamflow forecasting
Metamorphic testing of machine learning and conceptual hydrologic models
The influence of human activities on streamflow reductions during the megadrought in central Chile
Elevational control of isotopic composition and application in understanding hydrologic processes in the mid Merced River catchment, Sierra Nevada, California, USA
Lack of robustness of hydrological models: A large-sample diagnosis and an attempt to identify the hydrological and climatic drivers
Exploring the Potential Processes Controls for Changes of Precipitation-Runoff Relationships in Non-stationary Environments
Enhancing long short-term memory (LSTM)-based streamflow prediction with a spatially distributed approach
Long Short-Term Memory Networks for Real-time Flood Forecast Correction: A Case Study for an Underperforming Hydrologic Model
Broadleaf afforestation impacts on terrestrial hydrology insignificant compared to climate change in Great Britain
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Viet Dung Nguyen, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 447–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Flood peak distributions indicate how likely the occurrence of an extreme flood is at a certain river. If the distribution has a so-called heavy tail, extreme floods are more likely than might be anticipated. We find heavier tails in small catchments compared to large catchments, and spatially variable rainfall leads to a lower occurrence probability of extreme floods. Spatially variable runoff does not show effects. The results can improve estimations of probabilities of extreme floods.
Junfu Gong, Xingwen Liu, Cheng Yao, Zhijia Li, Albrecht H. Weerts, Qiaoling Li, Satish Bastola, Yingchun Huang, and Junzeng Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 335–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces a new method to improve flood forecasting by combining soil moisture and streamflow data using an advanced data assimilation technique. By integrating field and reanalysis soil moisture data and assimilating this with streamflow measurements, we aim to enhance the accuracy of flood predictions. This approach reduces the accumulation of past errors in the initial conditions at the start of the forecast, helping to better prepare for and respond to floods.
Jordy Salmon-Monviola, Ophélie Fovet, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 127–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To increase the predictive power of hydrological models, it is necessary to improve their consistency, i.e. their physical realism, which is measured by the ability of the model to reproduce observed system dynamics. Using a model to represent the dynamics of water and nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in an agricultural catchment, we showed that using solute-concentration data for calibration is useful to improve the hydrological consistency of the model.
Haley A. Canham, Belize Lane, Colin B. Phillips, and Brendan P. Murphy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 27–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of watershed disturbances has proved challenging to disentangle from natural streamflow variability. This study evaluates the influence of time-varying hydrologic controls on rainfall–runoff in undisturbed and wildfire-disturbed watersheds using a novel time-series event separation method. Across watersheds, water year type and season influenced rainfall–runoff patterns. Accounting for these controls enabled clearer isolation of wildfire effects.
Fabian Merk, Timo Schaffhauser, Faizan Anwar, Ye Tuo, Jean-Martial Cohard, and Markus Disse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5511–5539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Evapotranspiration (ET) is computed from the vegetation (plant transpiration) and soil (soil evaporation). In western Africa, plant transpiration correlates with vegetation growth. Vegetation is often represented using the leaf area index (LAI). In this study, we evaluate the importance of the LAI for ET calculation. We take a close look at this interaction and highlight its relevance. Our work contributes to the understanding of terrestrial water cycle processes .
Eshrat Fatima, Rohini Kumar, Sabine Attinger, Maren Kaluza, Oldrich Rakovec, Corinna Rebmann, Rafael Rosolem, Sascha E. Oswald, Luis Samaniego, Steffen Zacharias, and Martin Schrön
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5419–5441, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study establishes a framework to incorporate cosmic-ray neutron measurements into the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). We evaluate different approaches to estimate neutron counts within the mHM using the Desilets equation, with uniformly and non-uniformly weighted average soil moisture, and the physically based code COSMIC. The data improved not only soil moisture simulations but also the parameterisation of evapotranspiration in the model.
Laia Estrada, Xavier Garcia, Joan Saló-Grau, Rafael Marcé, Antoni Munné, and Vicenç Acuña
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5353–5373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling is a powerful tool to support decision-making. We assessed spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow for 2001–2022 with a hydrological model, integrating stakeholder expert knowledge on management operations. The results provide insight into how climate change and anthropogenic pressures affect water resources availability in regions vulnerable to water scarcity, thus raising the need for sustainable management practices and integrated hydrological modelling.
Patricio Yeste, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Sonia R. Gámiz-Fortis, Yolanda Castro-Díez, Axel Bronstert, and María Jesús Esteban-Parra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5331–5352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Integrating streamflow and evaporation data can help improve the physical realism of hydrologic models. We investigate the capabilities of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) to reproduce both hydrologic variables for 189 headwater located in Spain. Results from sensitivity analyses indicate that adding two vegetation parameters is enough to improve the representation of evaporation and that the performance of VIC exceeded that of the largest modelling effort currently available in Spain.
Daniel T. Myers, David Jones, Diana Oviedo-Vargas, John Paul Schmit, Darren L. Ficklin, and Xuesong Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5295–5310, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how streamflow and water quality models respond to land cover data collected by satellites during the growing season versus the non-growing season. The land cover data showed more trees during the growing season and more built areas during the non-growing season. We next found that the use of non-growing season data resulted in a higher modeled nutrient export to streams. Knowledge of these sensitivities would be particularly important when models inform water resource management.
Kevin R. Shook, Paul H. Whitfield, Christopher Spence, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5173–5192, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies suggest that the velocities of water running off landscapes in the Canadian Prairies may be much smaller than generally assumed. Analyses of historical flows for 23 basins in central Alberta show that many of the rivers responded more slowly and that the flows are much slower than would be estimated from equations developed elsewhere. The effects of slow flow velocities on the development of hydrological models of the region are discussed, as are the possible causes.
Alberto Bassi, Marvin Höge, Antonietta Mira, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Carlo Albert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4971–4988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The goal is to remove the impact of meteorological drivers in order to uncover the unique landscape fingerprints of a catchment from streamflow data. Our results reveal an optimal two-feature summary for most catchments, with a third feature associated with aridity and intermittent flow that is needed for challenging cases. Baseflow index, aridity, and soil or vegetation attributes strongly correlate with learnt features, indicating their importance for streamflow prediction.
Guillaume Thirel, Léonard Santos, Olivier Delaigue, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4837–4860, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how mathematical transformations impact calibrated hydrological model simulations. We assess how 11 transformations behave over the complete range of streamflows. Extreme transformations lead to models that are specialized for extreme streamflows but show poor performance outside the range of targeted streamflows and are less robust. We show that no a priori assumption about transformations can be taken as warranted.
Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4685–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale hydrologic simulators are a needed tool to explore complex watershed processes and how they may evolve with a changing climate. However, calibrating them can be difficult because they are costly to run and have many unknown parameters. We implement a state-of-the-art approach to model calibration using neural networks with a set of experiments based on streamflow in the upper Colorado River basin.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Kersti Leppä, Hannu Marttila, Pertti Ala-aho, Giulia Mazzotti, Terhikki Manninen, Mika Korkiakoski, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, and Samuli Launiainen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4643–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used hydrological models, field measurements, and satellite-based data to study the soil moisture dynamics in a subarctic catchment. The role of groundwater was studied with different ways to model the groundwater dynamics and via comparisons to the observational data. The choice of groundwater model was shown to have a strong impact, and representation of lateral flow was important to capture wet soil conditions. Our results provide insights for ecohydrological studies in boreal regions.
Nienke Tempel, Laurène Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4577–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities and, thus, on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that, despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4521–4538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper developed hybrid semi-distributed hydrological models by employing a process-based model as the backbone and utilizing deep learning to parameterize and replace internal modules. The main contribution is to provide a high-performance tool enriched with explicit hydrological knowledge for hydrological prediction and to improve understanding about the hydrological sensitivities to climate change in large alpine basins.
Dan Elhanati, Nadine Goeppert, and Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4239–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A continuous time random walk framework was developed to allow modeling of a karst aquifer discharge response to measured rainfall. The application of the numerical model yielded robust fits between modeled and measured discharge values, especially for the distinctive long tails found during recession times. The findings shed light on the interplay of slow and fast flow in the karst system and establish the application of the model for simulating flow and transport in such systems.
Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4187–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, a special type of neural-network architecture became increasingly popular in hydrology literature. However, in most applications, this model was applied as a one-to-one replacement for hydrology models without adapting or rethinking the experimental setup. In this opinion paper, we show how this is almost always a bad decision and how using these kinds of models requires the use of large-sample hydrology data sets.
Franziska Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4219–4237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the differences between the forcing data included in three CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB) and the forcing data included for the same catchments in the Caravan dataset affect model calibration considerably. The model performance dropped when the data from the Caravan dataset were used instead of the original data. Most of the model performance drop could be attributed to the differences in precipitation data. However, differences were largest for the potential evapotranspiration data.
Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4059–4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Gao et al. (2023) question the importance of soil in hydrology, sparking debate. We acknowledge some valid points but critique their broad, unsubstantiated views on soil's role. Our response highlights three key areas: (1) the false divide between ecosystem-centric and soil-centric approaches, (2) the vital yet varied impact of soil properties, and (3) the call for a scale-aware framework. We aim to unify these perspectives, enhancing hydrology's comprehensive understanding.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Alexandre Devers, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Claire Lauvernet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Núria Bonada, Zoltán Csabai, Heikki Mykrä, Petr Pařil, Luka Polović, and Thibault Datry
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our study projects how climate change will affect drying of river segments and stream networks in Europe, using advanced modeling techniques to assess changes in six river networks across diverse ecoregions. We found that drying events will become more frequent, intense and start earlier or last longer, potentially turning some river sections from perennial to intermittent. The results are valuable for river ecologists in evaluating the ecological health of river ecosystem.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Ryan S. Padrón, Massimiliano Zappa, Luzi Bernhard, and Konrad Bogner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2591, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We generate operational forecasts of daily maximum stream water temperature for the next month at 54 stations in Switzerland with our best performing data-driven model. The average forecast error is 0.38 °C for 1 day ahead and increases to 0.90 °C for 1 month ahead given the uncertainty in the meteorological variables influencing water temperature. Here we compare the skill of several models, how well they can forecast at new and ungauged stations, and the importance of different model inputs.
Zehua Chang, Hongkai Gao, Leilei Yong, Kang Wang, Rensheng Chen, Chuntan Han, Otgonbayar Demberel, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Shugui Hou, and Zheng Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3897–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed that considers glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrology. We utilized it to simulate future changes in cryosphere and hydrology in the Hulu catchment. Our projections showed the two glaciers will melt completely around 2050, snow cover will reduce, and permafrost will degrade. For hydrology, runoff will decrease after the glacier has melted, and permafrost degradation will increase baseflow.
Henry M. Zimba, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Kawawa E. Banda, Petra Hulsman, Nick van de Giesen, Imasiku A. Nyambe, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3633–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The fall and flushing of new leaves in the miombo woodlands co-occur in the dry season before the commencement of seasonal rainfall. The miombo species are also said to have access to soil moisture in deep soils, including groundwater in the dry season. Satellite-based evaporation estimates, temporal trends, and magnitudes differ the most in the dry season, most likely due to inadequate understanding and representation of the highlighted miombo species attributes in simulations.
Xudong Zheng, Dengfeng Liu, Shengzhi Huang, Hao Wang, and Xianmeng Meng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-230, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Water budget non-closure is a widespread phenomenon among multisource datasets, which undermines the robustness of hydrological inferences. This study proposes a Multisource Datasets Correction Framework grounded in Physical Hydrological Processes Modelling to enhance water budget closure, called PHPM-MDCF. We examined the efficiency and robustness of the framework using the CAMELS dataset, and achieved an average reduction of 49 % in total water budget residuals across 475 CONUS basins.
Eduardo Acuna Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2147, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven techniques have shown the potential to outperform process-based models in rainfall-runoff simulations. Hybrid models, combining both approaches, aim to enhance accuracy and maintain interpretability. Expanding the set of test cases to evaluate hybrid models under different conditions we test their generalization capabilities for extreme hydrological events.
Louise Akemi Kuana, Arlan Scortegagna Almeida, Emílio Graciliano Ferreira Mercuri, and Steffen Manfred Noe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3367–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The authors compared regionalization methods for river flow prediction in 126 catchments from the south of Brazil, a region with humid subtropical and hot temperate climate. The regionalization method based on physiographic–climatic similarity had the best performance for predicting daily and Q95 reference flow. We showed that basins without flow monitoring can have a good approximation of streamflow using machine learning and physiographic–climatic information as inputs.
Huy Dang and Yadu Pokhrel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3347–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By examining basin-wide simulations of a river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we present evidence that climate variation was a key driver of hydrologic variabilities in the Mekong River basin (MRB) over the long term; however, dams have largely altered the seasonality of the Mekong’s flow regime and annual flooding patterns in major downstream areas in recent years. These findings could help us rethink the planning of future dams and water resource management in the MRB.
Yongshin Lee, Francesca Pianosi, Andres Peñuela, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3261–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following recent advancements in weather prediction technology, we explored how seasonal weather forecasts (1 or more months ahead) could benefit practical water management in South Korea. Our findings highlight that using seasonal weather forecasts for predicting flow patterns 1 to 3 months ahead is effective, especially during dry years. This suggest that seasonal weather forecasts can be helpful in improving the management of water resources.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3161–3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding worsens due to climate change, with river dynamics being a key in local flood control. Predicting post-storm geomorphic changes is challenging. Using self-organizing maps and machine learning, this study forecasts post-storm alterations in stage–discharge relationships across 3101 US stream gages. The provided framework can aid in updating hazard assessments by identifying rivers prone to change, integrating channel adjustments into flood hazard assessment.
Yalan Song, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark, Dapeng Feng, Kathryn Lawson, Kamlesh Sawadekar, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3051–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Differentiable models (DMs) integrate neural networks and physical equations for accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge discovery. We developed an adjoint-based DM for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for hydrological modeling, reducing distorted fluxes and physical parameters from errors in models that use explicit and operation-splitting schemes. With a better numerical scheme and improved structure, the adjoint-based DM matches or surpasses long short-term memory (LSTM) performance.
Mengjiao Zhang, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1464, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study conducted a detailed analysis of runoff component and future trend in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin owing to the existed differences in the published results, and find that the contributions of snowmelt and glacier melt runoff to streamflow were limited, both for ~5 % which were much lower than previous results. The streamflow there will continuously increase in the future, but the overestimated contribution from glacier melt would lead to an underestimation on such increasing trend.
Florian Willkofer, Raul R. Wood, and Ralf Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Severe flood events pose a threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates of the dynamics of these events in the future due to climate change are rarely available. Hence, this study uses data from a regional climate model, SMILE, to drive a high-resolution hydrological model for 98 catchments of hydrological Bavaria and exploits the large database to derive robust values for the 100-year flood events. Results indicate an increase in frequency and intensity for most catchments in the future.
Maik Renner and Corina Hauffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2849–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate and land surface changes influence the partitioning of water balance components decisively. Their impact is quantified for 71 catchments in Saxony. Germany. Distinct signatures in the joint water and energy budgets are found: (i) past forest dieback caused a decrease in and subsequent recovery of evapotranspiration in the affected regions, and (ii) the recent shift towards higher aridity imposed a large decline in runoff that has not been seen in the observation records before.
Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2809–2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasting facilitates reliable flood forecasting and warning. This study couples the copula-based hydrologic uncertainty processor (CHUP) with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and proposes the novel CHUP-BMA method of reducing inflow forecasting uncertainty of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The CHUP-BMA avoids the normal distribution assumption in the HUP-BMA and considers the constraint of initial conditions, which can improve the deterministic and probabilistic forecast performance.
Mazda Kompanizare, Diogo Costa, Merrin L. Macrae, John W. Pomeroy, and Richard M. Petrone
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2785–2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new agricultural tile drainage module was developed in the Cold Region Hydrological Model platform. Tile flow and water levels are simulated by considering the effect of capillary fringe thickness, drainable water and seasonal regional groundwater dynamics. The model was applied to a small well-instrumented farm in southern Ontario, Canada, where there are concerns about the impacts of agricultural drainage into Lake Erie.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2705–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hybrid models promise to merge the performance of deep learning methods with the interpretability of process-based models. One hybrid approach is the dynamic parameterization of conceptual models using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We explored this method to evaluate the effect of the flexibility given by LSTMs on the process-based part.
Adam Griffin, Alison L. Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Widespread flooding is a major problem in the UK and is greatly affected by climate change and land-use change. To look at how widespread flooding changes in the future, climate model data (UKCP18) were used with a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) across the UK, and 14 400 events were identified between two time slices: 1980–2010 and 2050–2080. There was a strong increase in the number of winter events in the future time slice and in the peak return periods.
Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually
impossibleyet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.
Anne-Laure Argentin, Pascal Horton, Bettina Schaefli, Jamal Shokory, Felix Pitscheider, Leona Repnik, Mattia Gianini, Simone Bizzi, Stuart Lane, and Francesco Comiti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1687, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we show that by taking the optimal parameters calibrated with a semi-lumped model for the discharge at a catchment's outlet, we can accurately simulate runoff at various points within the study area, including three nested and three neighboring catchments. In addition, we demonstrate that employing more intricate melt models, which better represent physical processes, enhances the transfer of parameters in the simulation, until an overparametrization limit is reached.
Everett Snieder and Usman T. Khan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-169, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-169, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Improving the accuracy of flood forecasts is paramount to minimising flood damage. Machine-learning models are increasingly being applied for flood forecasting. Such models are typically trained to large historic hydrometeorological datasets. In this work, we evaluate methods for selecting training datasets, that maximise the spatiotemproal diversity of the represented hydrological processes. Empirical results showcase the importance of hydrological diversity in training ML models.
Peter Reichert, Kai Ma, Marvin Höge, Fabrizio Fenicia, Marco Baity-Jesi, Dapeng Feng, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2505–2529, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We compared the predicted change in catchment outlet discharge to precipitation and temperature change for conceptual and machine learning hydrological models. We found that machine learning models, despite providing excellent fit and prediction capabilities, can be unreliable regarding the prediction of the effect of temperature change for low-elevation catchments. This indicates the need for caution when applying them for the prediction of the effect of climate change.
Nicolás Álamos, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Ariel Muñoz, and Álvaro González-Reyes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2483–2503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we assess the effects of climate and water use on streamflow reductions and drought intensification during the last 3 decades in central Chile. We address this by contrasting streamflow observations with near-natural streamflow simulations. We conclude that while the lack of precipitation dominates streamflow reductions in the megadrought, water uses have not diminished during this time, causing a worsening of the hydrological drought conditions and maladaptation conditions.
Fengjing Liu, Martha H. Conklin, and Glenn D. Shaw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2239–2258, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain snowpack has been declining and more precipitation falls as rain than snow. Using stable isotopes, we found flows and flow duration in Yosemite Creek are most sensitive to climate warming due to strong evaporation of waterfalls, potentially lengthening the dry-up period of waterfalls in summer and negatively affecting tourism. Groundwater recharge in Yosemite Valley is primarily from the upper snow–rain transition (2000–2500 m) and very vulnerable to a reduction in the snow–rain ratio.
Léonard Santos, Vazken Andréassian, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Göran Lindström, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, Lila Collet, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-80, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-80, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims at investigating how hydrological models can be transferred to a period in which climatic conditions are different to the ones of the period in which it was set up. The RAT method, built to detect dependencies between model error and climatic drivers, was applied to 3 different hydrological models on 352 catchments in Denmark, France and Sweden. Potential issues are detected for a significant number of catchments for the 3 models even though these catchments differ for each model.
Tian Lan, Tongfang Li, Hongbo Zhang, Jiefeng Wu, Yongqin David Chen, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-118, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops an integrated framework based on the novel Driving index for changes in Precipitation-Runoff Relationships (DPRR) to explore the controls for changes in precipitation-runoff relationships in non-stationary environments. According to the quantitative results of the candidate driving factors, the possible process explanations for changes in the precipitation-runoff relationships are deduced. The main contribution offers a comprehensive understanding of hydrological processes.
Qiutong Yu, Bryan A. Tolson, Hongren Shen, Ming Han, Juliane Mai, and Jimmy Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2107–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
It is challenging to incorporate input variables' spatial distribution information when implementing long short-term memory (LSTM) models for streamflow prediction. This work presents a novel hybrid modelling approach to predict streamflow while accounting for spatial variability. We evaluated the performance against lumped LSTM predictions in 224 basins across the Great Lakes region in North America. This approach shows promise for predicting streamflow in large, ungauged basin.
Sebastian Gegenleithner, Manuel Pirker, Clemens Dorfmann, Roman Kern, and Josef Schneider
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1030, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate early warning systems are crucial for reducing damages caused by flooding events. In this study, we demonstrate the potential of Long Short-Term Memory Networks for enhancing the forecast accuracy of hydrologic models employed in operational flood forecasting. The presented approach elevated the investigated hydrologic model’s forecast accuracy for further ahead predictions and at flood event runoff.
Marcus Buechel, Louise Slater, and Simon Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2081–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation has been proposed internationally, but the hydrological implications of such large increases in the spatial extent of woodland are not fully understood. In this study, we use a land surface model to simulate hydrology across Great Britain with realistic afforestation scenarios and potential climate changes. Countrywide afforestation minimally influences hydrology, when compared to climate change, and reduces low streamflow whilst not lowering the highest flows.
Cited articles
Abe, C. A., de Lobo, F. L., Dibike, Y. B., de Costa, M. P. F., Dos Santos, V., and Novo, E. M. L. M.: Modelling the effects of historical and future land cover changes on the hydrology of an Amazonian basin, Water, 10, 932, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10070932, 2018.
Ashagrie, A. G., de Laat, P. J., de Wit, M. J., Tu, M., and Uhlenbrook, S.: Detecting the influence of land use changes on discharges and floods in the Meuse River Basin – the predictive power of a ninety-year rainfall-runoff relation?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 691–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-10-691-2006, 2006.
Asokan, S. M. and Dutta, D.: Analysis of water resources in the Mahanadi
River Basin, India under projected climate conditions, Hydrol. Process. An
Int. J., 22, 3589–3603, 2008.
Babar, S. and Ramesh, H.: Streamflow response to land use-land cover change
over the Nethravathi River Basin, India, J. Hydrol. Eng., 20, 05015002,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001177, 2015.
Bao, Z., Liu, J., Zhang, J., Fu, G., Wang, G., Yan, X., Zhang, A., Xu, Q., and Shang, M.: Estimation of baseflow parameters of variable infiltration capacity model with soil and topography properties for predictions in ungauged basins, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 8, 7017–7053, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-8-7017-2011, 2011.
Behera, M. D., Tripathi, P., Das, P., Srivastava, S. K., Roy, P. S., Joshi,
C., Behera, P. R., Deka, J., Kumar, P., Khan, M. L., Tripathi, O. P., Dash,
T., and Krishnamurthy, Y. V. N.: Remote sensing based deforestation analysis
in Mahanadi and Brahmaputra river basin in India since 1985, J. Environ.
Manage., 206, 1192–1203, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.10.015, 2018.
Berihun, M. L., Tsunekawa, A., Haregeweyn, N., Meshesha, D. T., Adgo, E.,
Tsubo, M., Masunaga, T., Fenta, A. A., Sultan, D., Yibeltal, M., and Ebabu,
K.: Hydrological responses to land use/land cover change and climate
variability in contrasting agro-ecological environments of the Upper Blue
Nile basin, Ethiopia, Sci. Total Environ., 689, 347–365,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.338, 2019.
Beven, K. and Binley, A.: The future of distributed models: Model
calibration and uncertainty prediction, Hydrol. Process., 6, 279–298,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.3360060305, 1992.
Bhuvan: NRSC Open EO Data Archive | NOEDA | Ortho | DEM | Elevation | AWiFS | LISSIII | HySI | TCHP | OHC | Free GIS Data | Download, available at: https://bhuvan-app3.nrsc.gov.in/data/download/index.php, last access: 13 December 2021.
Bosch, J. M. and Hewlett, J. D.: A review of catchment experiments to
determine the effect of vegetation changes on water yield and
evapotranspiration, J. Hydrol., 55, 3–23,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(82)90117-2, 1982.
Breuer, L., Huisman, J. A., and Frede, H. G.: Monte Carlo assessment of
uncertainty in the simulated hydrological response to land use change,
Environ. Model. Assess., 11, 209–218, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-006-9051-9,
2006.
Central Water Commission, Ministry of jal shakti, Department of Water Resources, River Development and Ganga Rejuvenation, GoI: http://www.cwc.gov.in/, last access: 13 December 2021.
Chaney, N. W., Herman, J. D., Reed, P. M., and Wood, E. F.: Flood and drought hydrologic monitoring: the role of model parameter uncertainty, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3239–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3239-2015, 2015.
Chen, C., Park, T., Wang, X., Piao, S., Xu, B., Chaturvedi, R. K., Fuchs,
R., Brovkin, V., Ciais, P., Fensholt, R., Tømmervik, H., Bala, G., Zhu,
Z., Nemani, R. R., and Myneni, R. B.: China and India lead in greening of the
world through land-use management, Nat. Sustain., 2, 122–129,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0220-7, 2019a.
Chen, Y., Xu, C. Y., Chen, X., Xu, Y., Yin, Y., Gao, L., and Liu, M.:
Uncertainty in simulation of land-use change impacts on catchment runoff
with multi-timescales based on the comparison of the HSPF and SWAT models,
J. Hydrol., 573, 486–500, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.091,
2019b.
Cherkauer, K. A. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Hydrologic effects of frozen soils
in the upper Mississippi River basin, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104,
19599–19610, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900337, 1999.
Chu, M. L., Knouft, J. H., Ghulam, A., Guzman, J. A., and Pan, Z.: Impacts of
urbanization on river flow frequency: A controlled experimental
modeling-based evaluation approach, J. Hydrol., 495, 1–12,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.04.051, 2013.
Cornelissen, T., Diekkrüger, B., and Giertz, S.: A comparison of
hydrological models for assessing the impact of land use and climate change
on discharge in a tropical catchment, J. Hydrol., 498, 221–236,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.06.016, 2013.
Cosby, B. J., Hornberger, G. M., Clapp, R. B., and Ginn, T. R.: A Statistical
Exploration of the Relationships of Soil Moisture Characteristics to the
Physical Properties of Soils, Water Resour. Res., 20, 682–690,
https://doi.org/10.1029/WR020i006p00682, 1984.
Costa, M. H., Botta, A., and Cardille, J. A.: Effects of large-scale changes
in land cover on the discharge of the Tocantins River, Southeastern
Amazonia, J. Hydrol., 283, 206–217,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00267-1, 2003.
Dadhwal, V. K., Mishra, N., and Aggarwal, S, P.: Hydrological Simulation of
Mahanadi River Basin and Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Surface
Runoff Using a Macro Scale Hydrological Model, ISPRS TC VII Symp. – 100
Years ISPRS, Vienna, Austria, XXXVIII, 165–170, 2010.
Das, P., Behera, M. D., Patidar, N., Sahoo, B., Tripathi, P., Behera, P. R.,
Srivastava, S. K., Roy, P. S., Thakur, P., Agrawal, S. P., and Krishnamurthy,
Y. V. N.: Impact of LULC change on the runoff, base flow and
evapotranspiration dynamics in eastern Indian river basins during 1985–2005
using variable infiltration capacity approach, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 127,
1–19, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-018-0921-8, 2018.
Demaria, E. M., Nijssen, B., and Wagener, T.: Monte Carlo sensitivity
analysis of land surface parameters using the Variable Infiltration Capacity
model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007534,
2007.
Demaria, E. M. C., Maurer, E. P., Sheffield, J., Bustos, E., Poblete, D.,
Vicuña, S., and Meza, F.: Using a gridded global dataset to characterize
regional hydroclimate in central Chile, J. Hydrometeorol., 14, 251–265,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-047.1, 2013.
Eum, H. Il, Dibike, Y., and Prowse, T.: Comparative evaluation of the effects
of climate and land-cover changes on hydrologic responses of the Muskeg
River, Alberta, Canada, J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 8, 198–221,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2016.10.003, 2016.
Feng, D. and Beighley, E.: Identifying uncertainties in hydrologic fluxes and seasonality from hydrologic model components for climate change impact assessments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2253–2267, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2253-2020, 2020.
Fohrer, N., Haverkamp, S., Eckhardt, K., and Frede, H. G.: Hydrologic
response to land use changes on the catchment scale, Phys. Chem. Earth Pt
B, 26, 577–582,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1464-1909(01)00052-1, 2001.
Foley, J. A., DeFries, R., Asner, G. P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter,
S. R., Chapin, F. S., Coe, M. T., Daily, G. C., Gibbs, H. K., Helkowski, J.
H., Holloway, T., Howard, E. A., Kucharik, C. J., Monfreda, C., Patz, J. A.,
Prentice, I. C., Ramankutty, N., and Snyder, P. K.: Global consequences of
land use, Science, 309, 570–574,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1111772, 2005.
Franchini, M. and Pacciani, M.: Comparative analysis of several conceptual
rainfall-runoff models, J. Hydrol., 122, 161–219,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(91)90178-K, 1991.
Gao, H., Tang, Q., Shi, X., Zhu, C., and Bohn, T.: Water budget record from Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, Algorithm Theor. Basis Doc. Terr. Water Cycle Data Rec., (Vic), 120–173, available at: http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&btnG=Search&q=intitle:Water+Budget+Record+from+Variable+Infiltration+Capacity+(+VIC+)+Model#2 (last access: 20 June 2021), 2010.
Garg, V., Aggarwal, S. P., Gupta, P. K., Nikam, B. R., Thakur, P. K.,
Srivastav, S. K., and Senthil Kumar, A.: Assessment of land use land cover
change impact on hydrological regime of a basin, Environ. Earth Sci.,
76, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-017-6976-z, 2017.
Garg, V., Nikam, B. R., Thakur, P. K., Aggarwal, S. P., Gupta, P. K., and
Srivastav, S. K.: Human-induced land use land cover change and its impact on
hydrology, HydroResearch, 1, 48–56, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydres.2019.06.001, 2019.
Gebremicael, T. G., Mohamed, Y. A., and Van der Zaag, P.: Attributing the
hydrological impact of different land use types and their long-term dynamics
through combining parsimonious hydrological modelling, alteration analysis
and PLSR analysis, Sci. Total Environ., 660, 1155–1167,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.085, 2019.
Ghosh, S., Raje, D., and Mujumdar, P. P.: Mahanadi streamflow: climate change
impact assessment and adaptive strategies, Curr. Sci. India, 98, 1084–1091,
2010.
Gidden, M. J., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Fujimori, S., Luderer, G., Kriegler, E., van Vuuren, D. P., van den Berg, M., Feng, L., Klein, D., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Harmsen, M., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hilaire, J., Hoesly, R., Horing, J., Popp, A., Stehfest, E., and Takahashi, K.: Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1443–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019, 2019.
Gou, J., Miao, C., Duan, Q., Tang, Q., Di, Z., Liao, W., Wu, J., and Zhou,
R.: Sensitivity Analysis-Based Automatic Parameter Calibration of the VIC
Model for Streamflow Simulations Over China, Water Resour. Res., 56,
1–19, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025968, 2020.
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F.: Decomposition of
the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for
improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003, 2009.
Hamman, J. J., Nijssen, B., Bohn, T. J., Gergel, D. R., and Mao, Y.: The Variable Infiltration Capacity model version 5 (VIC-5): infrastructure improvements for new applications and reproducibility, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3481–3496, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3481-2018, 2018.
Hengade, N., Eldho, T. I., and Ghosh, S.: Climate change impact assessment of
a river basin using CMIP5 climate models and the VIC hydrological model,
Hydrolog. Sci. J., 63, 596–614, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2018.1441531, 2018.
Her, Y., Yoo, S. H., Cho, J., Hwang, S., Jeong, J., and Seong, C.:
Uncertainty in hydrological analysis of climate change: multi-parameter vs.
multi-GCM ensemble predictions, Sci. Rep.-UK, 9, 1–22,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-41334-7, 2019.
Herman, J. D., Kollat, J. B., Reed, P. M., and Wagener, T.: Technical Note: Method of Morris effectively reduces the computational demands of global sensitivity analysis for distributed watershed models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2893–2903, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2893-2013, 2013.
Huang, M. and Liang, X.: On the assessment of the impact of reducing
parameters and identification of parameter uncertainties for a hydrologic
model with applications to ungauged basins, J. Hydrol., 320, 37–61,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.010, 2006.
Hurkmans, R. T. W. L., Terink, W., Uijlenhoet, R., Moors, E. J., Troch, P.
A., and Verburg, P. H.: Effects of land use changes on streamflow generation
in the Rhine basin, Water Resour. Res., 45, 1–15,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007574, 2009.
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L. P., Sahajpal, R., Frolking, S. E., Bodirsky, B.,
Calvin, K. V, Doelman, J. C., Fisk, J., Fujimori, S., Goldewijk, K., and
others: LUH2: Harmonization of global land-use scenarios for the period
850-2100, AGUFM, 2018, GC13A–01, 2018.
India Meteorological Department: https://www.imd.gov.in, last access: 13 December 2021.
IPCC: Special report on global warming of 1.5 ∘C (SR15), available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ (last access: 30 November 2021), 2019.
Jin, L., Whitehead, P. G., Rodda, H., Macadam, I., and Sarkar, S.: Simulating
climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality
in the Mahanadi River system, India, Sci. Total Environ., 637–638,
907–917, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.349, 2018.
Joseph, J., Ghosh, S., Pathak, A., and Sahai, A. K.: Hydrologic impacts of
climate change: Comparisons between hydrological parameter uncertainty and
climate model uncertainty, J. Hydrol., 566, 1–22,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.080, 2018.
Kneis, D., Chatterjee, C., and Singh, R.: Evaluation of TRMM rainfall estimates over a large Indian river basin (Mahanadi), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2493–2502, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2493-2014, 2014.
Knoben, W. J. M., Freer, J. E., and Woods, R. A.: Technical note: Inherent benchmark or not? Comparing Nash–Sutcliffe and Kling–Gupta efficiency scores, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4323–4331, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4323-2019, 2019.
Krause, A., Haverd, V., Poulter, B., Anthoni, P., Quesada, B., Rammig, A.,
and Arneth, A.: Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change
Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning, Earth's Futur., 7, 833–851,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001123, 2019.
Kumar, N., Singh, S. K., Singh, V. G., and Dzwairo, B.: Investigation of
impacts of land use/land cover change on water availability of Tons River
Basin, Madhya Pradesh, India, Model. Earth Syst. Environ., 4, 295–310,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-018-0425-1, 2018.
Kundu, S., Khare, D., and Mondal, A.: Individual and combined impacts of
future climate and land use changes on the water balance, Ecol. Eng., 105,
42–57, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2017.04.061, 2017.
Land Use Harmonization: https://luh.umd.edu/data.shtml, last access: 13 December 2021.
Li, Z., Deng, X., Wu, F., and Hasan, S. S.: Scenario analysis for water
resources in response to land use change in the middle and upper reaches of
the heihe river Basin, Sustainability-Basel, 7, 3086–3108, https://doi.org/10.3390/su7033086,
2015.
Liang, X., Lettenmaier, D. P., Wood, E. F., and Burges, S. J.: A Simple
hydrologically Based Model of Land Surface Water and Energy Fluxes for GSMs,
J. Geophys. Res., 99, 14415–14428, 1994.
Lilhare, R., Pokorny, S., Déry, S. J., Stadnyk, T. A., and Koenig, K. A.:
Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty assessment in water budgets simulated
by the variable infiltration capacity model for Canadian subarctic
watersheds, Hydrol. Process., 34, 2057–2075, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13711,
2020.
Lohmann, D. A. G., Nolte-Holube, R., and Raschke, E.: A large-scale
horizontal routing model to be coupled to land surface parametrization
schemes, Tellus A, 48, 708–721, 1996.
Ma, X., Xu, J., and van Noordwijk, M.: Sensitivity of streamflow from a
Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate, Hydrol.
Process., 24, 1379–1390, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7602, 2010.
Mao, D. and Cherkauer, K. A.: Impacts of land-use change on hydrologic
responses in the Great Lakes region, J. Hydrol., 374, 71–82,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.016, 2009.
Matheussen, B., Goodman, I. A., Lettenmaier, D. P., Kirschbaum, R. L., and
O'Donnell, G. M.: Effects of land cover change on streamflow in the interior
Columbia River Basin (USA and Canada), Hydrol. Process., 14, 867–885,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1085(20000415)14:5<867::aid-hyp975>3.0.co;2-5, 2002.
Mishra, N., Aggarwal, S. P., and Dadhwal, V. K.: Macroscale Hydrological
Modelling and Impact of land cover change on stream flows of the Mahanadi
River Basin, A Master thesis Submitt. to Andhra Univ. Indian Inst. Remote
Sens. (National Remote Sens. Agency) Dept. Space, Govt. India, 2008.
Mockler, E. M., Chun, K. P., Sapriza-Azuri, G., Bruen, M., and Wheater, H.
S.: Assessing the relative importance of parameter and forcing uncertainty
and their interactions in conceptual hydrological model simulations, Adv.
Water Resour., 97, 299–313, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.10.008, 2016.
Morris, M. D.: Factorial sampling plans for preliminary computational
experiments, Technometrics, 33, 161–174, 1991.
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1: Pressure, available at: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.pressure.html, last access: 13 December 2021.
Pai, D. S., Sridhar, L., Rajeevan, M., Sreejith, O. P., Satbhai, N. S., and
Mukhopadhyay, B.: Development of a new high spatial resolution
(0.25∘ × 0.25∘) long period (1901–2010) daily
gridded rainfall data set over India and its comparison with existing data
sets over the region, Mausam, 65, 1–18, 2014.
Patidar, N. and Behera, M. D.: How Significantly do Land Use and Land Cover
(LULC) Changes Influence the Water Balance of a River Basin? A Study in
Ganga River Basin, India, P. Natl. A. Sci. India A,
89, 353–365, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40010-017-0426-x, 2019.
Rawls, W. J., Gimenez, D., and Grossman, R.: Use of soil texture, bulk density, and slope of the water retention curve to predict saturated hydraulic conductivity, T. ASAE, 41, 983–988, 1998.
Reynolds, C. A., Jackson, T. J., and Rawls, W. J.: Estimating soil
water-holding capacities by linking the Food and Agriculture Organization
soil map of the world with global pedon databases and continuous
pedotransfer functions, Water Resour. Res., 36, 3653–3662, 2000.
Rodriguez, D. A. and Tomasella, J.: On the ability of large-scale
hydrological models to simulate land use and land cover change impacts in
Amazonian basins, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 61, 1831–1846,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1051979, 2016.
Rogger, M., Agnoletti, M., Alaoui, A., Bathurst, J. C., Bodner, G., Borga,
M., Chaplot, V., Gallart, F., Glatzel, G., Hall, J., Holden, J., Holko, L.,
Horn, R., Kiss, A., Quinton, J. N., Leitinger, G., Lennartz, B., Parajka,
J., Peth, S., Robinson, M., Salinas, J. L., Santoro, A., Szolgay, J., Tron,
S., and Viglione, A.: Water Resour. Res., 53, 5209–5219,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020723, 2016.
Rosolem, R., Gupta, H. V., Shuttleworth, W. J., Zeng, X., and De
Gonçalves, L. G. G.: A fully multiple-criteria implementation of the
Sobol' method for parameter sensitivity analysis, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
117, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016355, 2012.
Sarrazin, F., Pianosi, F., and Wagener, T.: Global Sensitivity Analysis of
environmental models: Convergence and validation, Environ. Model. Softw.,
79, 135–152, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.02.005, 2016.
Singh, R., Wagener, T., Crane, R., Mann, M. E., and Ning, L.: A vulnerability
driven approach to identify adverse climate and land use change combinations
for critical hydrologic indicator thresholds: Application to a watershed in
Pennsylvania, USA, Water Resour. Res., 50, 3409–3427,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014988, 2014.
Sivasena Reddy, A. and Janga Reddy, M.: Evaluating the influence of spatial
resolutions of DEM on watershed runoff and sediment yield using SWAT, J.
Earth Syst. Sci., 124, 1517–1529, 2015.
Tang, Y., Reed, P., Wagener, T., and van Werkhoven, K.: Comparing sensitivity analysis methods to advance lumped watershed model identification and evaluation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 793–817, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-793-2007, 2007.
UH-VIC: https://vic.readthedocs.io/en/vic.4.2.d/Documentation/Routing/UH/, last access: 13 December 2021.
UW-Hydro: VIC, GitHub [code], available at:
https://github.com/UW-Hydro/VIC/releases/tag/VIC.4.2.d, last access:
13 December 2021.
Vanrolleghem, P. A., Mannina, G., Cosenza, A., and Neumann, M. B.: Global
sensitivity analysis for urban water quality modelling: Terminology,
convergence and comparison of different methods, J. Hydrol., 522, 339–352,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.056, 2015.
Viglione, A., Merz, B., Viet Dung, N., Parajka, J., Nester, T., and
Blöschl, G.: Attribution of regional flood changes based on scaling
fingerprints, Water Resour. Res., 52, 5322–5340, 2016.
Viola, M. R., Mello, C. R., Beskow, S., and Norton, L. D.: Impacts of
Land-use Changes on the Hydrology of the Grande River Basin Headwaters,
Southeastern Brazil, Water Resour. Manag., 28, 4537–4550,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0749-1, 2014.
Wagner, P. D., Kumar, S., and Schneider, K.: An assessment of land use change impacts on the water resources of the Mula and Mutha Rivers catchment upstream of Pune, India, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2233–2246, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2233-2013, 2013.
Wang, A. and Solomatine, D. P.: Practical experience of sensitivity
analysis: Comparing six methods, on three hydrological models, with three
performance criteria, Water, 11, 1–26,
https://doi.org/10.3390/w11051062, 2019.
Wilk, J. and Hughes, D. A.: Simulating the impacts of land-use and climate
change on water resource availability for a large south Indian catchment,
Hydrolog. Sci. J., 47, 19–30, 2002.
Woldesenbet, T. A., Elagib, N. A., Ribbe, L., and Heinrich, J.: Hydrological
responses to land use/cover changes in the source region of the Upper Blue
Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Sci. Total Environ., 575, 724–741,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.124, 2017.
Xie, Z., Yuan, F., Duan, Q., Zheng, J., Liang, M., and Chen, F.: Regional
parameter estimation of the VIC land surface model: Methodology and
application to river basins in China, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 447–468,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM568.1, 2007.
Yanto, Livneh, B., Rajagopalan, B., and Kasprzyk, J.: Hydrological model
application under data scarcity for multiple watersheds, Java Island,
Indonesia, J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 9, 127–139,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2016.09.007, 2017.
Yeste, P., García-Valdecasas Ojeda, M., Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.,
Castro-Díez, Y., and Jesús Esteban-Parra, M.: Integrated Sensitivity
Analysis of a Macroscale Hydrologic Model in the North of the Iberian
Peninsula, J. Hydrol., 590, 125230,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125230, 2020.
Zeng, X.: Global Vegetation Root Distribution for Land Modeling, J.
Hydrometeorol., 2, 525–530, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2001)002<0525:gvrdfl>2.0.co;2, 2002.
Zhang, T., Zhang, X., Xia, D., and Liu, Y.: An analysis of land use change
dynamics and its impacts on hydrological processes in the Jialing River
Basin, Water, 6, 3758–3782, https://doi.org/10.3390/w6123758, 2014.
Zhao, R. J., Zhang, Y. L., Fang, L. R., Liu, X. R., and Zhang, Q. S.: The Xinanjiang model Hydrological Forecasting Proceedings Oxford Symposium, IASH 129, 351–356, 1980.
Short summary
Rapid growth in population in developing countries leads to an increase in food demand, and as a consequence, percentages of land are being converted to cropland which alters river flow processes. This study describes how the hydrology of a flood-prone river basin in India would respond to the current and future changes in land cover. Our findings indicate that the recurrent flood events occurring in the basin might be influenced by these changes in land cover at the catchment scale.
Rapid growth in population in developing countries leads to an increase in food demand, and as a...
