Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4917-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4917-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Sep 2021
Research article |
| 07 Sep 2021
| 07 Sep 2021
A 10 km North American precipitation and land-surface reanalysis based on the GEM atmospheric model
Nicolas Gasset
Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Milena Dimitrijevic
Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Marco Carrera
Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Bernard Bilodeau
Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Ryan Muncaster
Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Étienne Gaborit
Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Guy Roy
Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Nedka Pentcheva
Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Maxim Bulat
Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Xihong Wang
Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Radenko Pavlovic
Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Franck Lespinas
Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Dikra Khedhaouiria
Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Juliane Mai
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Related authors
Vincent Vionnet, Vincent Fortin, Etienne Gaborit, Guy Roy, Maria Abrahamowicz, Nicolas Gasset, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2141–2165, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2141-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2141-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The 2013 Alberta flood in Canada was typical of late-spring floods in mountain basins combining intense precipitation with rapid melting of late-lying snowpack. Hydrological simulations of this event are mainly influenced by (i) the spatial resolution of the atmospheric forcing due to the best estimate of precipitation at the kilometer scale and changes in turbulent fluxes contributing to snowmelt and (ii) uncertainties in initial snow conditions at high elevations. Soil texture has less impact.
Maria Staudinger, Anna Herzog, Ralf Loritz, Tobias Houska, Sandra Pool, Diana Spieler, Paul D. Wagner, Juliane Mai, Jens Kiesel, Stephan Thober, Björn Guse, and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1076, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1076, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Four process-based and four data-driven hydrological models are compared using different training data. We found process-based models to perform better with small data sets but stop learning soon, while data-driven models learn longer. The study highlights the importance of memory in data and the impact of different data sampling methods on model performance. The direct comparison of these models is novel and provides a clear understanding of their performance under various data conditions.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4127–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flow months in advance is crucial for water sectors and society. In North America, snowmelt is a key driver of flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flow months ahead in North American snow-fed rivers. Variations in the river flow predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future predictability in a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Qiutong Yu, Bryan A. Tolson, Hongren Shen, Ming Han, Juliane Mai, and Jimmy Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2107–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
It is challenging to incorporate input variables' spatial distribution information when implementing long short-term memory (LSTM) models for streamflow prediction. This work presents a novel hybrid modelling approach to predict streamflow while accounting for spatial variability. We evaluated the performance against lumped LSTM predictions in 224 basins across the Great Lakes region in North America. This approach shows promise for predicting streamflow in large, ungauged basin.
Samah Larabi, Juliane Mai, Markus Schnorbus, Bryan A. Tolson, and Francis Zwiers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3241–3263, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3241-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The computational cost of sensitivity analysis (SA) becomes prohibitive for large hydrologic modeling domains. Here, using a large-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) deployment, we show that watershed classification helps identify the spatial pattern of parameter sensitivity within the domain at a reduced cost. Findings reveal the opportunity to leverage climate and land cover attributes to reduce the cost of SA and facilitate more rapid deployment of large-scale land surface models.
Robert Chlumsky, Juliane Mai, James R. Craig, and Bryan A. Tolson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-69, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-69, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
A blended model allows multiple hydrologic processes to be represented in a single model, which allows for a model to achieve high performance without the need to modify its structure for different catchments. Here, we improve upon the initial blended version by testing more than 30 blended models in twelve catchments to improve the overall model performance. We validate our proposed, updated blended model version with independent catchments, and make this version available for open use.
Richard Arsenault, Jean-Luc Martel, Frédéric Brunet, François Brissette, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Dikraa Khedhaouiria, Stéphane Bélair, Vincent Fortin, Guy Roy, and Franck Lespinas
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 329–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-329-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-329-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a well-known use of hybrid methods in data assimilation (DA) algorithms that has not yet been explored for precipitation analyses. Our approach combined an ensemble-based DA approach with an existing deterministically based DA. Both DA scheme families have desirable aspects that can be leveraged if combined. The DA hybrid method showed better precipitation analyses in regions with a low rate of assimilated surface observations, which is typically the case in winter.
Juliane Mai, Hongren Shen, Bryan A. Tolson, Étienne Gaborit, Richard Arsenault, James R. Craig, Vincent Fortin, Lauren M. Fry, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, Frederik Kratzert, Nicole O'Brien, Daniel G. Princz, Sinan Rasiya Koya, Tirthankar Roy, Frank Seglenieks, Narayan K. Shrestha, André G. T. Temgoua, Vincent Vionnet, and Jonathan W. Waddell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3537–3572, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3537-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Model intercomparison studies are carried out to test various models and compare the quality of their outputs over the same domain. In this study, 13 diverse model setups using the same input data are evaluated over the Great Lakes region. Various model outputs – such as streamflow, evaporation, soil moisture, and amount of snow on the ground – are compared using standardized methods and metrics. The basin-wise model outputs and observations are made available through an interactive website.
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, and Harry Hendon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes an experimental protocol focused on sudden stratospheric warmings to be carried out by subseasonal forecast modeling centers. These will allow for inter-model comparisons of these major disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex and their impacts on the near-surface flow. The protocol will lead to new insights into the contribution of the stratosphere to subseasonal forecast skill and new approaches to the dynamical attribution of extreme events.
Michelle Viswanathan, Tobias K. D. Weber, Sebastian Gayler, Juliane Mai, and Thilo Streck
Biogeosciences, 19, 2187–2209, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2187-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2187-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the evolution of model parameter uncertainty and prediction error as we updated parameters of a maize phenology model based on yearly observations, by sequentially applying Bayesian calibration. Although parameter uncertainty was reduced, prediction quality deteriorated when calibration and prediction data were from different maize ripening groups or temperature conditions. The study highlights that Bayesian methods should account for model limitations and inherent data structures.
Yongkang Xue, Tandong Yao, Aaron A. Boone, Ismaila Diallo, Ye Liu, Xubin Zeng, William K. M. Lau, Shiori Sugimoto, Qi Tang, Xiaoduo Pan, Peter J. van Oevelen, Daniel Klocke, Myung-Seo Koo, Tomonori Sato, Zhaohui Lin, Yuhei Takaya, Constantin Ardilouze, Stefano Materia, Subodh K. Saha, Retish Senan, Tetsu Nakamura, Hailan Wang, Jing Yang, Hongliang Zhang, Mei Zhao, Xin-Zhong Liang, J. David Neelin, Frederic Vitart, Xin Li, Ping Zhao, Chunxiang Shi, Weidong Guo, Jianping Tang, Miao Yu, Yun Qian, Samuel S. P. Shen, Yang Zhang, Kun Yang, Ruby Leung, Yuan Qiu, Daniele Peano, Xin Qi, Yanling Zhan, Michael A. Brunke, Sin Chan Chou, Michael Ek, Tianyi Fan, Hong Guan, Hai Lin, Shunlin Liang, Helin Wei, Shaocheng Xie, Haoran Xu, Weiping Li, Xueli Shi, Paulo Nobre, Yan Pan, Yi Qin, Jeff Dozier, Craig R. Ferguson, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Qing Bao, Jinming Feng, Jinkyu Hong, Songyou Hong, Huilin Huang, Duoying Ji, Zhenming Ji, Shichang Kang, Yanluan Lin, Weiguang Liu, Ryan Muncaster, Patricia de Rosnay, Hiroshi G. Takahashi, Guiling Wang, Shuyu Wang, Weicai Wang, Xu Zhou, and Yuejian Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4465–4494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The subseasonal prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts/floods has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new international initiative which, for the first time, introduces spring land surface temperature anomalies over high mountains to improve precipitation prediction through remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. More than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this effort. The experimental protocol and preliminary results are presented.
Juliane Mai, James R. Craig, and Bryan A. Tolson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5835–5858, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5835-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5835-2020, 2020
Yilong Wang, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Franck Lespinas, Michael Buchwitz, Maximilian Reuter, Yasjka Meijer, Armin Loescher, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Bo Zheng, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5813–5831, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5813-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5813-2020, 2020
Vincent Vionnet, Vincent Fortin, Etienne Gaborit, Guy Roy, Maria Abrahamowicz, Nicolas Gasset, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2141–2165, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2141-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2141-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The 2013 Alberta flood in Canada was typical of late-spring floods in mountain basins combining intense precipitation with rapid melting of late-lying snowpack. Hydrological simulations of this event are mainly influenced by (i) the spatial resolution of the atmospheric forcing due to the best estimate of precipitation at the kilometer scale and changes in turbulent fluxes contributing to snowmelt and (ii) uncertainties in initial snow conditions at high elevations. Soil texture has less impact.
Jack Chen, Kerry Anderson, Radenko Pavlovic, Michael D. Moran, Peter Englefield, Dan K. Thompson, Rodrigo Munoz-Alpizar, and Hugo Landry
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3283–3310, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3283-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3283-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Emissions from wildland fires can cause significant impacts on regional air quality. We introduce the Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System and demonstrate its integration with Canada's FireWork operational air quality forecast system with biomass burning emissions. The coupled system shows improved skill in providing short-term, 48 h forecasts of surface air pollutant concentrations (PM2.5, O3, and NO2) from the impacts of regional wildland fires across the North American domain.
Stephan Thober, Matthias Cuntz, Matthias Kelbling, Rohini Kumar, Juliane Mai, and Luis Samaniego
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2501–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2501-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2501-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a model that aggregates simulated runoff along a river
(i.e. a routing model). The unique feature of the model is that it
can be run at multiple resolutions without any modifications to the
input data. The model internally (dis-)aggregates all input data to
the resolution given by the user. The model performance does not
depend on the chosen resolution. This allows efficient model
calibration at coarse resolution and subsequent model application at
fine resolution.
Bruce Davison, Vincent Fortin, Alain Pietroniro, Man K. Yau, and Robert Leconte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 741–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-741-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-741-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores a new method of predicting streamflow using a complex model. It makes use of streamflow observations to reduce an existing ensemble of model runs for predictive purposes. The study illustrated that the method could work given the proper constraints, which were only possible if there was enough knowledge about how the river responded to precipitation in the previous months. Ideas were discussed to allow the method to be used in a way to predict future streamflow.
Christophe Lavaysse, Jürgen Vogt, Andrea Toreti, Marco L. Carrera, and Florian Pappenberger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3297–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting droughts in Europe 1 month in advance would provide valuable information for decision makers. However, these extreme events are still difficult to predict. In this study, we develop forecasts based on predictors using the geopotential anomalies, generally more predictable than precipitation, derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that this approach outperforms the prediction using precipitation, especially in winter and in northern Europe, where 65 % of droughts are predicted.
Mehmet C. Demirel, Juliane Mai, Gorka Mendiguren, Julian Koch, Luis Samaniego, and Simon Stisen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1299–1315, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1299-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1299-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite data offer great opportunities to improve spatial model predictions by means of spatially oriented model evaluations. In this study, satellite images are used to observe spatial patterns of evapotranspiration at the land surface. These spatial patterns are utilized in combination with streamflow observations in a model calibration framework including a novel spatial performance metric tailored to target the spatial pattern performance of a catchment-scale hydrological model.
Raneem Madi, Gerrit Huibert de Rooij, Henrike Mielenz, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1193–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1193-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1193-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Water flows through soils with more difficulty when the soil is dried out. Scant rainfall in deserts may therefore result in a seemingly wet soil, but the water will often not penetrate deeply enough to replenish the groundwater. We compared the mathematical functions that describe how well different soils hold their water and found that only a few of them are realistic. The function one chooses to model the soil can have a large impact on the estimate of groundwater recharge.
Martin Schrön, Markus Köhli, Lena Scheiffele, Joost Iwema, Heye R. Bogena, Ling Lv, Edoardo Martini, Gabriele Baroni, Rafael Rosolem, Jannis Weimar, Juliane Mai, Matthias Cuntz, Corinna Rebmann, Sascha E. Oswald, Peter Dietrich, Ulrich Schmidt, and Steffen Zacharias
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5009–5030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5009-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5009-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A field-scale average of near-surface water content can be sensed by cosmic-ray neutron detectors. To interpret, calibrate, and validate the integral signal, it is important to account for its sensitivity to heterogeneous patterns like dry or wet spots. We show how point samples contribute to the neutron signal based on their depth and distance from the detector. This approach robustly improves the sensor performance and data consistency, and even reveals otherwise hidden hydrological features.
Étienne Gaborit, Vincent Fortin, Xiaoyong Xu, Frank Seglenieks, Bryan Tolson, Lauren M. Fry, Tim Hunter, François Anctil, and Andrew D. Gronewold
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4825–4839, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4825-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4825-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The work presents an original methodology for optimizing streamflow simulations with the distributed hydrological model GEM-Hydro.
While minimizing the computational time required for automatic calibration, the approach allows us to end up with a spatially coherent and transferable parameter set. The GEM-Hydro model is useful because it allows simulation of all physical components of the hydrological cycle in every part of a domain.
It proves to be competitive with other distributed models.
Remko C. Nijzink, Luis Samaniego, Juliane Mai, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Matthias Zink, David Schäfer, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1151–1176, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1151-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The heterogeneity of landscapes in river basins strongly affects the hydrological response. In this study, the distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) was equipped with additional processes identified by landscapes within one modelling cell. Seven study catchments across Europe were selected to test the value of this additional sub-grid heterogeneity. In addition, the models were constrained based on expert knowledge. Generally, the modifications improved the representation of low flows.
Rohini Kumar, Jude L. Musuuza, Anne F. Van Loon, Adriaan J. Teuling, Roland Barthel, Jurriaan Ten Broek, Juliane Mai, Luis Samaniego, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1117–1131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1117-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1117-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In a maiden attempt, we performed a multiscale evaluation of the widely used SPI to characterize local- and regional-scale groundwater (GW) droughts using observations at 2040 groundwater wells in Germany and the Netherlands. From this data-based exploratory analysis, we provide sufficient evidence regarding the inability of the SPI to characterize GW drought events, and stress the need for more GW observations and accounting for regional hydrogeological characteristics in GW drought monitoring.
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Enhanced evaluation of hourly and daily extreme precipitation in Norway from convection-permitting models at regional and local scales
Deep-learning-based sub-seasonal precipitation and streamflow ensemble forecasting over the source region of the Yangtze River
High-resolution land surface modelling over Africa: the role of uncertain soil properties in combination with forcing temporal resolution
Investigating the global and regional response of drought to idealized deforestation using multiple global climate models
Distribution, trends, and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom
Are dependencies of extreme rainfall on humidity more reliable in convection-permitting climate models?
Leveraging a radar-based disdrometer network to develop a probabilistic precipitation phase model in eastern Canada
Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over the Central Mediterranean
Do land models miss key soil hydrological processes controlling soil moisture memory?
Observation-driven model for calculating water-harvesting potential from advective fog in (semi-)arid coastal regions
Review of gridded climate products and their use in hydrological analyses reveals overlaps, gaps, and the need for a more objective approach to selecting model forcing datasets
Barriers of urban hydro-meteorological simulation: a review
Downscaling the probability of heavy rainfall over the Nordic countries
Modelling convective cell life cycles with a copula-based approach
Downscaling precipitation over High-mountain Asia using multi-fidelity Gaussian processes: improved estimates from ERA5
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Towards a Robust Hydrologic Data Assimilation System for Hurricane-induced River Flow Forecasting
Enhanced hydrological modelling with the WRF-Hydro lake/reservoir module at Convection-Permitting scale: a case study of the Tana River basin in East Africa
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Probabilistic precipitation downscaling for ungauged mountain sites: a pilot study for the Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalaya
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change in the southern Tibetan Plateau
Skilful probabilistic predictions of UK floods months ahead using machine learning models trained on multimodel ensemble climate forecasts
FROSTBYTE: a reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
The role of land-atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and VIC models
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Global catalog of soil moisture droughts over the past four decades
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Implementation of global soil databases in NOAH-MP model and the effects on simulated mean and extreme soil hydrothermal changes
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
Kun Xie, Lu Li, Hua Chen, Stephanie Mayer, Andreas Dobler, Chong-Yu Xu, and Ozan Mert Göktürk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2133–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2133-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2133-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We compared hourly and daily extreme precipitation across Norway from HARMONIE Climate models at convection-permitting 3 km (HCLIM3) and 12 km (HCLIM12) resolutions. HCLIM3 more accurately captures the extremes in most regions and seasons (except in summer). Its advantages are more pronounced for hourly extremes than for daily extremes. The results highlight the value of convection-permitting models in improving extreme-precipitation predictions and in helping the local society brace for extreme weather.
Ningpeng Dong, Haoran Hao, Mingxiang Yang, Jianhui Wei, Shiqin Xu, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2023–2042, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2023-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2023-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrometeorological forecasting is crucial for managing water resources and mitigating extreme weather events, yet current long-term forecast products are often embedded with uncertainties. We develop a deep-learning-based modelling framework to improve 30 d rainfall and streamflow forecasts by combining advanced neural networks and physical models. With the flow forecast error reduced by up to 33 %, the framework has the potential to enhance water management and disaster prevention.
Bamidele Oloruntoba, Stefan Kollet, Carsten Montzka, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1659–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how soil and weather data affect land model simulations over Africa. By combining soil data processed in different ways with weather data of varying time intervals, we found that weather inputs had a greater impact on water processes than soil data type. However, the way soil data were processed became crucial when paired with high-frequency weather inputs, showing that detailed weather data can improve local and regional predictions of how water moves and interacts with the land.
Yan Li, Bo Huang, Chunping Tan, Xia Zhang, Francesco Cherubini, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1637–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Deforestation has a significant impact on climate, yet its effects on drought remain less understood. This study investigates how deforestation affects drought across various climate zones and timescales. Findings indicate that deforestation leads to drier conditions in tropical regions and wetter conditions in arid areas, with minimal effects in temperate zones. Long-term drought is more affected than short-term drought, offering valuable insights into vegetation–climate interactions.
Iván Noguera, Jamie Hannaford, and Maliko Tanguy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1295–1317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides a detailed characterisation of flash drought in the UK for 1969–2021. The spatio-temporal distribution and trends of flash droughts are highly variable, with important regional and seasonal contrasts. In the UK, flash drought development responds primarily to precipitation variability, while the atmospheric evaporative demand plays a secondary role. We also found that the North Atlantic Oscillation is the main circulation pattern controlling flash drought development.
Geert Lenderink, Nikolina Ban, Erwan Brisson, Ségolène Berthou, Virginia Edith Cortés-Hernández, Elizabeth Kendon, Hayley J. Fowler, and Hylke de Vries
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1201–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Future extreme rainfall events are influenced by changes in both absolute and relative humidity. The impact of increasing absolute humidity is reasonably well understood, but the role of relative humidity decreases over land remains largely unknown. Using hourly observations from France and the Netherlands, we find that lower relative humidity generally leads to more intense rainfall extremes. This relation is only captured well in recently developed convection-permitting climate models.
Alexis Bédard-Therrien, François Anctil, Julie M. Thériault, Olivier Chalifour, Fanny Payette, Alexandre Vidal, and Daniel F. Nadeau
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1135–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1135-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1135-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation data from an automated observational network in eastern Canada showed a temperature interval where rain and snow could coexist. Random forest models were developed to classify the precipitation phase using meteorological data to evaluate operational applications. The models demonstrated significantly improved phase classification and reduced error compared to benchmark operational models. However, accurate prediction of mixed-phase precipitation remains challenging.
Lorenzo Silvestri, Miriam Saraceni, Bruno Brunone, Silvia Meniconi, Giulia Passadore, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 925–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work demonstrates that seasonal forecasts of soil moisture are a valuable resource for groundwater management in the areas of the Central Mediterranean where longer memory timescales are found. In particular, they show significant correlation coefficients and forecast skill for the deepest soil moisture at 289 cm depth. Wet and dry events can be predicted 6 months in advance, and, in general, dry events are better captured than wet events.
Mohammad A. Farmani, Ali Behrangi, Aniket Gupta, Ahmad Tavakoly, Matthew Geheran, and Guo-Yue Niu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 547–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-547-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture memory (SMM) shows how long soil stays moist after rain, impacting climate and ecosystems. Current models often overestimate SMM, causing inaccuracies in evaporation predictions. We enhanced a land model, Noah-MP, to include better water flow and ponding processes, and we tested it against satellite and field data. This improved model reduced overestimations and enhanced short-term predictions, helping create more accurate climate and weather forecasts.
Felipe Lobos-Roco, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Camilo del Río
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 109–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Water resources are fundamental for the social, economic, and natural development of (semi-)arid regions. Precipitation decreases due to climate change obligate us to find new water resources. Fog harvesting (FH) emerges as a complementary resource in regions where it is abundant but untapped. This research proposes a model to estimate FH potential in coastal (semi-)arid regions. This model could have broader applicability worldwide in regions where FH could be a viable water source.
Kyle R. Mankin, Sushant Mehan, Timothy R. Green, and David M. Barnard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 85–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 63 gridded ground (G), satellite (S), and reanalysis (R) climate datasets. Higher-density station data and less-hilly terrain improved climate data. In mountainous and humid regions, dataset types performed similarly; however, R outperformed G when underlying data had low station density. G outperformed S or R datasets, although better streamflow modeling did not always follow. Hydrologic analyses need datasets that better represent climate variable dependencies and complex topography.
Xuan Chen, Job Augustijn van der Werf, Arjan Droste, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, and Remko Uijlenhoet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3988, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research highlights the need to integrate urban land surface and hydrological models to better predict and manage compound climate disasters in cities. We find that inadequate representation of water surfaces, hydraulic systems, and detailed building representations are key areas for improvement in future models. Coupled models show promise but face challenges at regional and neighbourhood scales. Interdisciplinary communication is crucial to enhance urban hydrometeorological simulations.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, and Andreas Dobler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method to calculate the chance of heavy downpour and the maximum rainfall expected over a 25-year period. It is designed to analyse global climate models' reproduction of past and future climates. For the Nordic countries, it projects a wetter climate in the future with increased intensity but not necessarily more wet days. The analysis also shows that rainfall intensity is sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions, while the number of wet days appears to be less affected.
Chien-Yu Tseng, Li-Pen Wang, and Christian Onof
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new algorithm to model convective storms. We used advanced tracking methods to analyse 165 storm events in Birmingham (UK) and reconstruct storm cell life cycles. We found that cell properties like intensity and size are interrelated and vary over time. The new algorithm, based on vine copulas, accurately simulates these properties and their evolution. It also integrates an exponential shape function for realistic rainfall patterns, enhancing its hydrological applicability.
Kenza Tazi, Andrew Orr, Javier Hernandez-González, Scott Hosking, and Richard E. Turner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4903–4925, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to improve the understanding of precipitation patterns in High-mountain Asia, a crucial water source for around 1.9 billion people. Through a novel machine learning method, we generate high-resolution precipitation predictions, including the likelihoods of floods and droughts. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, our method is simpler to implement and more suitable for small datasets. The method also shows accuracy comparable to or better than existing benchmark datasets.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4819–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach that is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212) and to remotely sensed satellite estimates.
Amy C. Green, Chris Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4539–4558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well in generating realistic weather radar images visually for a large range of event types.
Peyman Abbaszadeh, Keyhan Gavahi, and Hamid Moradkhani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-209, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-209, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
The Hybrid Ensemble and Variational Data Assimilation framework for Environmental System (HEAVEN) enhances flood predictions by refining hydrologic models through improved data integration and uncertainty management. Tested in three Southeastern U.S. watersheds during hurricanes, HEAVEN assimilates real-time USGS streamflow data, boosting forecast accuracy.
Ling Zhang, Lu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Joël Arnault, Stefan Sobolowski, Anthony Musili Mwanthi, Pratik Kad, Mohammed Abdullahi Hassan, Tanja Portele, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
To address challenges related to unreliable hydrological simulations, we present an enhanced hydrological simulation with a refined climate model and a more comprehensive hydrological model. The model with the two parts outperforms that without, especially in migrating bias in peak flow and dry-season flow. Our findings highlight the enhanced hydrological simulation capability with the refined climate and lake module contributing 24 % and 76 % improvement, respectively.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4455–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a reliable historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
Marc Girona-Mata, Andrew Orr, Martin Widmann, Daniel Bannister, Ghulam Hussain Dars, Scott Hosking, Jesse Norris, David Ocio, Tony Phillips, Jakob Steiner, and Richard E. Turner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2805, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a novel method for improving daily precipitation maps in mountain regions and pilot it across three basins in the Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalaya (HKH). The approach leverages climate model and weather station data, along with statistical / machine learning techniques. Our results show this approach outperforms traditional methods, especially in remote, ungauged areas, suggesting it could be used to improve precipitation maps across much of the HKH, as well as other mountain regions.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings show that runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin is primarily driven by rainfall, with the largest glacier runoff contribution in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff increased in the upper stream but decreased downstream due to varying precipitation patterns. It is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by increased rainfall.
Simon Moulds, Louise Slater, Louise Arnal, and Andrew Wood
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5X405, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5X405, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal streamflow forecasts are an important component of flood risk management. Here, we train and test a machine learning model to predict the monthly maximum daily streamflow up to four months ahead. We train the model on precipitation and temperature forecasts to produce probabilistic hindcasts for 579 stations across the UK for the period 2004–2016. We show skilful results up to four months ahead in many locations, although in general the skill declines with increasing lead time.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4127–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flow months in advance is crucial for water sectors and society. In North America, snowmelt is a key driver of flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flow months ahead in North American snow-fed rivers. Variations in the river flow predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future predictability in a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Yuna Lim, Andrea M. Molod, Randal D. Koster, and Joseph A. Santanello
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2312, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To better utilize a given set of predictions, identifying “forecasts of opportunity” has great value. It can help anticipate when prediction skill will be higher. This study reveals that when strong L-A coupling is detected 3–4 weeks into a forecast, the prediction skill for surface air temperature at this lead increases across the Midwest and northern Great Plains. Regions experiencing strong L-A coupling exhibit warm and dry anomalies, leading to improved predictions of abnormally warm events.
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Jan Řehoř, Rudolf Brázdil, Oldřich Rakovec, Martin Hanel, Milan Fischer, Rohini Kumar, Jan Balek, Markéta Poděbradská, Vojtěch Moravec, Luis Samaniego, and Miroslav Trnka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1434, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a robust method for identification and classification of global land drought events (GLDEs) based on soil moisture. Two models were used to calculate soil moisture and delimit soil drought over global land from 1980–2022, which was clustered into 775/630 GLDEs. Using four spatiotemporal and three motion-related characteristics, we categorized GLDEs into seven severity and seven dynamic categories. The frequency of GLDEs has generally increased in recent decades.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Kazeem Ishola, Gerald Mills, Ankur Sati, Benjamin Obe, Matthias Demuzere, Deepak Upreti, Gourav Misra, Paul Lewis, Daire Walsh, Tim McCarthy, and Rowan Fealy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-304, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-304, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
The global soil information contributes to uncertainty in many models that monitor soil hydrothermal changes. Using the NOAH-MP model with two different global soil information, we show under-represented soil properties in wet loam soil, leading to dry bias in soil moisture. The dry bias is higher and drought categories are more severe in SOILGRIDS. We conclude that models should consider using detailed regionally-derived soil information, to reduce model uncertainties.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Cited articles
Abaza, M., Fortin, V., Gaborit, É., Bélair, S., and Garnaud, C.:
Assessing 32-Day Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts in the Lake Champlain –
Richelieu River Watershed, J. Hydrol. Eng., 25, 04020045,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001983, 2020. a
Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P.-P., Janowiak, J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J., Arkin, P., and Nelkin, E.: The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present), J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1147–1167, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9040138, 2003. a, b, c
Adler, R. F., Sapiano, M. R. P., Huffman, G. J., Wang, J.-J., Gu, G., Bolvin,
D., Chiu, L., Schneider, U., Becker, A., Nelkin, E., Xie, P., Ferraro, R.,
and Shin, D.-B.: The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly
Analysis (New Version 2.3) and a Review of 2017 Global Precipitation,
Atmosphere, 9, 138, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9040138, 2018. a, b
Alavi, N., Bélair, S., Fortin, V., Zhang, S., Husain, S. Z., Carrera, M. L., and Abrahamowicz, M.: Warm Season Evaluation of Soil Moisture Prediction in the Soil, Vegetation, and Snow (SVS) Scheme, J. Hydrometeorol., 17, 2315–2332, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0189.1, 2016. a
Albergel, C., Dorigo, W., Reichle, R. H., Balsamo, G., de Rosnay, P.,
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Isaksen, L., de Jeu, R., and Wagner, W.: Skill and
Global Trend Analysis of Soil Moisture from Reanalyses and Microwave Remote Sensing, J. Hydrometeorol., 14, 1259–1277, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-0161.1, 2013. a, b
Awoye, O. H. R., Bajracharya, A. R., Stadnyk, T., and Asadzadeh, M.: Is the physical hydrologic model HYPE well suited for the simulation of water quantity in North-American watersheds? – A modelling experiment with the newly developed RDRS meteorological reanalysis data, in: vol. 2019, AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, 9–13 December 2019, San Francisco, H33M–2162, 2019. a
Balsamo, G., Mahfouf, J.-F., Bélair, S., and Deblonde, G.: A Land Data
Assimilation System for Soil Moisture and Temperature: An Information Content Study, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 1225–1242, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JHM819.1, 2007. a, b, c
Balsamo, G., Albergel, C., Beljaars, A., Boussetta, S., Brun, E., Cloke, H.,
Dee, D., Dutra, E., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Pappenberger, F., de Rosnay, P.,
Stockdale, T., and Vitart, F.: ERA-Interim/Land: A Global Land Surface Reanalysis Data Set, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 389–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-389-2015, 2015. a
Bélair, S., Mailhot, J., Strapp, J., and MacPherson, J.: An Examination of Local versus Nonlocal Aspects of a TKE-Based Boundary Layer Scheme in Clear Convective Conditions, J. Appl. Meteorol., 38, 1499–1518,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1999)038<1499:AEOLVN>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a
Bélair, S., Brown, R., Mailhot, J., Bilodeau, B., and Crevier, L.-P.:
Operational Implementation of the ISBA Land Surface Scheme in the Canadian Regional Weather Forecast Model. Part II: Cold Season Results, J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 371–386, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)4<371:OIOTIL>2.0.CO;2, 2003a. a, b, c, d, e
Bélair, S., Crevier, L.-P., Mailhot, J., Bilodeau, B., and Delage, Y.:
Operational Implementation of the ISBA Land Surface Scheme in the Canadian Regional Weather Forecast Model. Part I: Warm Season Results, J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 352–370,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)4<352:OIOTIL>2.0.CO;2, 2003b. a, b
Bélair, S., Roch, M., Leduc, A., Vaillancourt, P., Laroche, S., and Mailhot, J.: Medium-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from Canada's New 33-km Deterministic Global Operational System, Weather Forecast., 24,
690–708, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008WAF2222175.1, 2009. a
Benedict, I., Van Heerwaarden, C., Weerts, A., and Hazeleger, W.: The benefits of spatial resolution increase in global simulations of the hydrological cycle evaluated for the Rhine and Mississippi basins, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1779–1800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1779-2019, 2019. a
Benoit, R., Côté, J., and Mailhot, J.: Inclusion of a TKE Boundary
Layer Parameterization in the Canadian Regional Finite-Element Model, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 1726–1750, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<1726:IOATBL>2.0.CO;2, 1989. a
Bernier, N. B. and Bélair, S.: High Horizontal and Vertical Resolution Limited-Area Model: Near-Surface and Wind Energy Forecast Applications, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 51, 1061–1078, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0197.1, 2012. a, b
Boluwade, A., Stadnyk, T., Fortin, V., and Roy, G.: Assimilation of
Precipitation Estimates from the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG, Early Run) in the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA), J. Hydrol.: Reg. Stud., 14, 10–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.10.005, 2017. a
Bosilovich, M. G., Chen, J., Robertson, F. R., and Adler, R. F.: Evaluation of Global Precipitation in Reanalyses, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 47, 2279–2299, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAMC1921.1, 2008. a
Bosilovich, M. G., Robertson, F. R., and Chen, J.: Global Energy and Water Budgets in MERRA, J, Climate, 24, 5721–5739, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4175.1, 2011. a
Brown, R., Fang, B., and Mudryk, L.: Update of Canadian Historical Snow Survey Data and Analysis of Snow Water Equivalent Trends, 1967–2016, Atmos.-Ocean, 57, 149–156, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2019.1598843, 2019. a, b
Caron, J.-F., Milewski, T., Buehner, M., Fillion, L., Reszka, M., Macpherson,
S., and St-James, J.: Implementation of Deterministic Weather Forecasting Systems Based on Ensemble–Variational Data Assimilation at Environment Canada. Part II: The Regional System, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 2560–2580, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00353.1, 2015. a
Caron, J.-F., Zadra, A., Anselmo, D., Milewski, T., and Patoine, A.: Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) – Update from version 4.2.0 to version 5.0.0, Technical note, Canadian Meteorological Center, Environment and Climate Change Canada, available at:
https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/CMOI/product_guide/docs/lib/technote_rdps-500_20160907_e.pdf
(last access: 27 August 2021), 2016. a, b
Carrera, M. L., Bélair, S., Fortin, V., Bilodeau, B., Charpentier, D., and Doré, I.: Evaluation of Snowpack Simulations over the Canadian Rockies with an Experimental Hydrometeorological Modeling System, J. Hydrometeorol., 11, 1123–1140, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1274.1, 2010. a, b
CaSPAr: Canadian Surface Prediction Archive, https://caspar-data.ca, last access: 3 September 2021. a
Chikhar, K. and Gauthier, P.: Impact of Analyses on the Dynamical Balance of
Global and Limited-Area Atmospheric Models: Impact of Analyses on the
Dynamical Balance of Atmospheric Models, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 140, 2535–2545, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2319, 2014. a
Côté, J., Desmarais, J.-G., Gravel, S., Méthot, A., Patoine, A.,
Roch, M., and Staniforth, A.: The Operational CMC–MRB Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Model. Part II: Results, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 1397–1418,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1397:TOCMGE>2.0.CO;2, 1998a. a, b, c
Côté, J., Gravel, S., Méthot, A., Patoine, A., Roch, M., and
Staniforth, A.: The Operational CMC–MRB Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Model. Part I: Design Considerations and Formulation, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 1373–1395, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1373:TOCMGE>2.0.CO;2, 1998b. a, b, c
Deacu, D., Fortin, V., Klyszejko, E., Spence, C., and Blanken, P.: Predicting
the net basin supply to the Great Lakes with a hydrometeorological model, J. Hydrometeorol., 13, 1739–1759, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-0151.1, 2012. a, b, c
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and
Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim Reanalysis: Configuration and Performance of the Data Assimilation System, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a, b, c
Fairbairn, D., Barbu, A. L., Napoly, A., Albergel, C., Mahfouf, J.-F., and
Calvet, J.-C.: The Effect of Satellite-Derived Surface Soil Moisture and Leaf
Area Index Land Data Assimilation on Streamflow Simulations over France,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2015–2033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2015-2017, 2017. a
Fillion, L., Mitchell, H. L., Ritchie, H., and Staniforth, A.: The Impact of a Digital Filter Finalization Technique in a Global Data Assimilation System,
Tellus A, 47, 304–323, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v47i3.11518, 1995. a, b
Fletcher, S.: Data Assimilation for the Geosciences, 1st Edn., Elsevier, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA, 2017. a
Fortin, V. and Gronewold, A. D.: Water Balance of the Laurentian Great Lakes, in: Encyclopedia of Lakes and Reservoirs, Springer, Dordrecht, 864–869, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-4410-6_268, 2012. a
Fortin, V., Roy, G., Donaldson, N., and Mahidjiba, A.: Assimilation of Radar
Quantitative Precipitation Estimations in the Canadian Precipitation
Analysis (CaPA), J. Hydrol., 531, 296–307, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.08.003, 2015. a, b, c
Fortin, V., Roy, G., Stadnyk, T., Koenig, K., Gasset, N., and Mahidjiba, A.:
Ten Years of Science Based on the Canadian Precipitation Analysis: A CaPA
System Overview and Literature Review, Atmos.-Ocean, 56, 178–196,
https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2018.1474728, 2018. a, b, c
Fry, L. M., Hunter, T. S., Phanikumar, M. S., Fortin, V., and Gronewold, A. D.: Identifying Streamgage Networks for Maximizing the Effectiveness of Regional Water Balance Modeling, Water Resour. Res., 49, 2689–2700,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20233, 2013. a
Fujiwara, M., Wright, J. S., Manney, G. L., Gray, L. J., Anstey, J., Birner,
T., Davis, S., Gerber, E. P., Harvey, V. L., Hegglin, M. I., Homeyer, C. R.,
Knox, J. A., Krüger, K., Lambert, A., Long, C. S., Martineau, P., Molod,
A., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Santee, M. L., Tegtmeier, S., Chabrillat, S., Tan, D.
G. H., Jackson, D. R., Polavarapu, S., Compo, G. P., Dragani, R., Ebisuzaki,
W., Harada, Y., Kobayashi, C., McCarty, W., Onogi, K., Pawson, S., Simmons,
A., Wargan, K., Whitaker, J. S., and Zou, C.-Z.: Introduction to the SPARC
Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) and Overview of the Reanalysis Systems, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1417–1452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1417-2017, 2017. a
Gaborit, É., Fortin, V., Xu, X., Seglenieks, F., Tolson, B., Fry, L. M.,
Hunter, T., Anctil, F., and Gronewold, A. D.: A Hydrological Prediction System Based on the SVS Land-Surface Scheme: Efficient Calibration of GEM-Hydro for Streamflow Simulation over the Lake Ontario Basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4825–4839, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4825-2017, 2017. a
Gagnon, N., Deng, X., Houtekamer, P., Erfani, A., Charron, M., Beauregard, S., Frenette, R., Racette, D., and Lahlou, R.: Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) – Update from Version 4.0.1 to Version 4.1.1, Technical note, Canadian Meteorological Center, Environment and Climate Change Canada, available at:
https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/CMOI/product_guide/docs/lib/technote_geps-411_20151215_e.pdf
(last access: 27 August 2021), 2015. a, b
Giorgi, F.: Thirty Years of Regional Climate Modeling: Where Are We and Where
Are We Going next?, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 5696–5723, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030094, 2019. a
Girard, C., Plante, A., Desgagné, M., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Côté,
J., Charron, M., Gravel, S., Lee, V., Patoine, A., Qaddouri, A., Roch, M.,
Spacek, L., Tanguay, M., Vaillancourt, P. A., and Zadra, A.: Staggered Vertical Discretization of the Canadian Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Model Using a Coordinate of the Log-Hydrostatic-Pressure Type, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 1183–1196, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00255.1, 2013. a
Girard, C., Plante, A., Desgagné, M., Mctaggart-Cowan, R., Côté, J., Charron, M., Gravel, S., Lee, V., Patoine, A., Qaddouri, A., Roch, M.,
Spacek, L., Tanguay, M., Vaillancourt, P., and Zadra, A.: Staggered vertical
discretization of the canadian environmental multiscale (GEM) model using a
coordinate of the log-hydrostatic-pressure type, Mon. Weather Rev., 142,
1183–1196, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00255.1, 2014. a, b
Gronewold, A. D. and Rood, R. B.: Recent water level changes across Earth's
largest lake system and implications for future variability, J. Great Lakes Res., 45, 1–3, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2018.10.012, 2019. a
Gronewold, A. D., Fortin, V., Caldwell, R., and Noel, J.: Resolving
Hydrometeorological Data Discontinuities along an International Border, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 899–910, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0060.1, 2017. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D.,
Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer,
A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M.,
Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P.,
Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 Global
Reanalysis, Q. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a, b
Hines, C. O.: Doppler-spread parameterization of gravity-wave momentum
deposition in the middle atmosphere. Part 1: Basic formulation, J. Atmos. Sol.-Ter. Phys., 59, 371–386, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6826(96)00079-X, 1997a. a
Hines, C. O.: Doppler-spread parameterization of gravity-wave momentum
deposition in the middle atmosphere. Part 2: Broad and quasi monochromatic
spectra, and implementation, J. Atmos. Sol.-Ter. Phys., 59, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6826(96)00080-6, 1997b. a
Houtekamer, P. L., Deng, X., Mitchell, H. L., Baek, S.-J., and Gagnon, N.:
Higher Resolution in an Operational Ensemble Kalman Filter, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 1143–1162, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00138.1, 2013. a
Huffman, G. J., Bolvin, D. T., Nelkin, E. J., and Tan, J.: Integrated
Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) Technical Documentation, Technical
documentation, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, available at:
https://docserver.gesdisc.eosdis.nasa.gov/public/project/GPM/IMERG_doc.06.pdf (last access: 27 August 2021), 2020. a, b
Kain, J. and Fritsh, J.: A One-Dimensional Entraining/Detraining Plume Model
and Its Application in Convective Parameterization, J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2784–2802, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<2784:AODEPM>2.0.CO;2, 1990. a
Kain, J. S. and Fritsch, J. M.: Convective Parameterization for Mesoscale
Models: The Kain-Fritsch Scheme, American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 165–170, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-935704-13-3_16, 1993. a
Lavaysse, C., Carrera, M., Bélair, S., Gagnon, N., Frenette, R., Charron,
M., and Yau, M. K.: Impact of Surface Parameter Uncertainties within the
Canadian Regional Ensemble Prediction System, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 1506–1526, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00354.1, 2012. a
Li, J. and Barker, H.: A Radiation Algorithm with Correlated-k Distribution.
Part I: Local Thermal Equilibrium, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 286–309, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-3396.1, 2005. a
Li, X., Charron, M., Spacek, L., and Candille, G.: A Regional Ensemble
Prediction System Based on Moist Targeted Singular Vectors and Stochastic Parameter Perturbations, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 443–462, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2109.1, 2008. a
Lin, H., Gagnon, N., Beauregard, S., Muncaster, R., Markovic, M., Denis, B.,
and Charron, M.: GEPS-Based Monthly Prediction at the Canadian Meteorological Centre, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 4867–4883, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0138.1, 2016. a
Lin, Y. and Mitchell, K.: The NCEP Stage II/IV hourly precipitation analyses:
development and applications, in: Preprints of the 19th Conference on
Hydrology, American Meteorological Society, 9–13 January 2005, San Diego, CA, Paper 1.2, available at:
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/pcpanl/refs/stage2-4.19hydro.pdf
(last access: 1 September 2021), 2005. a, b
Lobligeois, F., Andréassian, V., Perrin, C., Tabary, P., and Loumagne, C.: When does higher spatial resolution rainfall information improve streamflow simulation? An evaluation using 3620 flood events, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 575–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-575-2014, 2014. a
Lott, F. and Miller, M. J.: A new subgrid-scale orographic drag
parametrization: Its formulation and testing, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 101–127, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712353704, 1997. a
Lott, N., Baldwin, R., and Jones, P.: The FCC Integrated Surface Hourly
Database, A New Resource of Global Climate Data, Tech. Rep. 2001-01, US National Climate Data Center, available at:
https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds463.3/docs/ish-tech-report.pdf (last access: 30 August 2021), 2001. a
Lucas-Picher, P., Boberg, F., Christensen, J. H., and Berg, P.: Dynamical
Downscaling with Reinitializations: A Method to Generate Finescale Climate Datasets Suitable for Impact Studies, J. Hydrometeorol., 14, 1159–1174, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-063.1, 2013. a
Mahfouf, J.-F., Brasnett, B., and Gagnon, S.: A Canadian Precipitation
Analysis (CaPA) Project: Description and Preliminary Results, Atmos.-Ocean, 45, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.3137/ao.v450101, 2007. a, b, c
Mai, J., Kornelsen, K. C., Tolson, B. A., Fortin, V., Gasset, N., Bouhemhem,
D., Schäfer, D., Leahy, M., Anctil, F., and Coulibaly, P.: The Canadian
Surface Prediction Archive (CaSPAr): A Platform to Enhance Environmental
Modeling in Canada and Globally, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 101, E341–E356, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0143.1, 2020. a
Mai, J., Tolson, B. A., Shen, H., Gaborit, É., Fortin, V., Gasset, N.,
Awoye, H., Stadnyk, T. A., Fry, L. M., Bradley, E. A., Seglenieks, F.,
Temgoua, A. G. T., Princz, D. G., Gharari, S., Haghnegahdar, A., Elshamy, M. E., Razavi, S., Gauch, M., Lin, J., Ni, X., Yuan, Y., McLeod, M., Basu, N. B., Kumar, R., Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., Attinger, S., Shrestha, N. K.,
Daggupati, P., Roy, T., Wi, S., Hunter, T., Craig, J. R., and Pietroniro, A.:
Great Lakes Runoff Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Lake Erie (GRIP-E), J. Hydrol. Eng., 26, 05021020, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002097, 2021. a, b, c, d, e
Mailhot, J., Bélair, S., Benoit, R., Bilodeau, B., Delage, Y., Fillion, L., Garand, L., Girard, C., and Tremblay, A.: Scientific Description of RPN
Physics Library – Version 3.6, Technical documentation, Environment and
Climate Change Canada, available at:
https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/science/rpn/physics/physic98.pdf (last access: 28 August 2021), 1998. a
Mailhot, J., Bélair, S., Lefaivre, L., Bilodeau, B., Desgagné, M., Girard, C., Glazer, A., Leduc, A., Méthot, A., Patoine, A., Plante, A., Rahill, A., Robinson, T., Talbot, D., Tremblay, A., Vaillancourt, P., Zadra, A., and Qaddouri, A.: The 15‐km version of the Canadian regional forecast system, Atmos.-Ocean, 44, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.3137/ao.440202, 2006. a
Marke, T., Mauser, W., Pfeiffer, A., and Zängl, G.: A Pragmatic Approach
for the Downscaling and Bias Correction of Regional Climate Simulations:
Evaluation in Hydrological Modeling, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 759–770, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-759-2011, 2011. a
McFarlane, N.: The Effect of Orographically Excited Gravity Wave Drag on the
General Circulation of the Lower Stratosphere and Troposphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 1775–1800, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<1775:TEOOEG>2.0.CO;2,
1987. a
McFarlane, N., Girard, C., and Shantz, D.: Reduction of Systematic Errors In
NWP and General Circulation Models by Parameterized Gravity Wave Drag, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 64A, 713–728, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.64A.0_713, 1986. a
McTaggart-Cowan, R. and Zadra, A.: Representing Richardson Number Hysteresis in the NWP Boundary Layer, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 1232–1258, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00179.1, 2014. a
McTaggart-Cowan, R., Girard, C., Plante, A., and Desgagné, M.: The
Utility of Upper-Boundary Nesting in NWP, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 2117–2144, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3633.1, 2011. a
Mesinger, F., DiMego, G., Kalnay, E., Mitchell, K., Shafran, P. C., Ebisuzaki, W., Jović, D., Woollen, J., Rogers, E., Berbery, E. H., Ek, M. B., Fan, Y., Grumbine, R., Higgins, W., Li, H., Lin, Y., Manikin, G., Parrish, D., and Shi, W.: North American Regional Reanalysis, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-3-343, 2006. a
Muñoz Sabater, J., Dutra, E., Schepers, D., Albergel, C., Boussetta, S.,
Agusti-Panareda, A., Zsoter, E., and Hersbach, H.: ERA5-Land: An improved
version of the ERA5 reanalysis land component, in: Joint International
Surface Working Group and Satellite Applications Facility on Land Surface
Analysis Workshop, IPMA, Lisbon, Portugal, p. 20, 2018. a, b
Noilhan, J. and Mahfouf, J. F.: The ISBA Land Surface Parameterisation Scheme, Global Planet. Change, 13, 145–159, https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(95)00043-7, 1996. a
Noilhan, J. and Planton, S.: A Simple Parameterization of Land Surface Processes for Meteorological Models, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 536–549, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<0536:ASPOLS>2.0.CO;2, 1989. a
Pudykiewicz, J., Benoit, R., and Mailhot, J.: Inclusion and verification of a
predictive Cloud-Water Scheme in a Regional Numerical Weather Prediction
Model, Mon. Weather Rev., 120, 612–626, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<0612:IAVOAP>2.0.CO;2, 1992. a
Qaddouri, A. and Lee, V.: The Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale Model on the Yin–Yang Grid System, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1913–1926, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.873, 2011. a
Reichle, R. H., Koster, R. D., De Lannoy, G. J. M., Forman, B. A., Liu, Q.,
Mahanama, S. P. P., and Touré, A.: Assessment and Enhancement of
MERRA Land Surface Hydrology Estimates, J. Climate, 24, 6322–6338, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05033.1, 2011. a
Rienecker, M. M., Suarez, M. J., Gelaro, R., Todling, R., Bacmeister, J., Liu, E., Bosilovich, M. G., Schubert, S. D., Takacs, L., Kim, G.-K., Bloom, S., Chen, J., Collins, D., Conaty, A., da Silva, A., Gu, W., Joiner, J.,
Koster, R. D., Lucchesi, R., Molod, A., Owens, T., Pawson, S., Pegion, P.,
Redder, C. R., Reichle, R., Robertson, F. R., Ruddick, A. G., Sienkiewicz, M., and Woollen, J.: MERRA: NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, J. Climate, 24, 3624–3648, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00015.1, 2011. a
Shrestha, R., Tachikawa, Y., and Takara, K.: Effects of forcing data resolution in river discharge simulation, Annu. J. Hydraul. Eng., 46, 139–144, https://doi.org/10.2208/prohe.46.139, 2002. a
Shrestha, R., Tachikawa, Y., and Takara, K.: Input data resolution analysis for distributed hydrological modeling, J. Hydrol., 319, 36–50,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.04.025, 2006. a
Smith, G. C., Roy, F., Mann, P., Dupont, F., Brasnett, B., Lemieux, J.-F.,
Laroche, S., and Bélair, S.: A New Atmospheric Dataset for Forcing
Ice-Ocean Models: Evaluation of Reforecasts Using the Canadian Global
Deterministic Prediction System: CGRF Dataset for Forcing Ice-Ocean
Models, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 140, 881–894, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2194, 2014.
a
Soci, C., Bazile, E., Besson, F., and Landelius, T.: High-resolution
precipitation re-analysis system for climatological purposes, Tellus A, 68, 29879, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.29879, 2016. a
Sundqvist, H., Berge, E., and Kristjánsson, J. E.: Condensation and Cloud Parameterization Studies with a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 1641,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<1641:CACPSW>2.0.CO;2, 1989. a
Takacs, L. L., Suárez, M. J., and Todling, R.: Maintaining Atmospheric Mass and Water Balance in Reanalyses, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 1565–1573, 2016. a
Tarek, M., Brissette, F. P., and Arsenault, R.: Evaluation of the ERA5
reanalysis as a potential reference dataset for hydrological modelling over
North America, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2527–2544,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2527-2020, 2020. a
Wang, X. L., Xu, H., Qian, B., Feng, Y., and Mekis, E.: Adjusted Daily Rainfall and Snowfall Data for Canada, Atmos.-Ocean, 55, 155–168, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2017.1342163, 2017. a
Yoshimura, K. and Kanamitsu, M.: Dynamical Global Downscaling of Global
Reanalysis, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 2983–2998, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2281.1, 2008. a
Zadra, A., Roch, M., Laroche, S., and Charron, M.: The subgrid‐scale
orographic blocking parametrization of the GEM Model, Atmos.-Ocean, 41, 155–170, https://doi.org/10.3137/ao.410204, 2003. a
Zadra, A., Gauthier, J.-P., and Leroux, A.: GenPhysX: A user's guide to
input/output and methods, Tech. rep., Canadian Meteorological Centre,
Environment Canada, Dorval, 2008. a
Short summary
In this paper, we highlight the importance of including land-data assimilation as well as offline precipitation analysis components in a regional reanalysis system. We also document the performance of the first multidecadal 10 km reanalysis performed with the GEM atmospheric model that can be used for seamless land-surface and hydrological modelling in North America. It is of particular interest for transboundary basins, as existing datasets often show discontinuities at the border.
In this paper, we highlight the importance of including land-data assimilation as well as...
