Articles | Volume 19, issue 8
Research article
27 Aug 2015
Research article |  | 27 Aug 2015

Improving real-time inflow forecasting into hydropower reservoirs through a complementary modelling framework

A. S. Gragne, A. Sharma, R. Mehrotra, and K. Alfredsen

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Cited articles

Abebe, A. J. and Price, R. K.: Managing uncertainty in hydrological models using complementary models, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 48, 679–692, 2003.
Aronica, G. T., Candela, A., Viola, F., and Cannarozz, M.: Influence of rating curve uncertainty on daily rainfall–runoff model predictions, Predict. Ungau. Basins, 303, 116–124, 2006.
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Beven, K.: Environmental Modelling: An Uncertain Future?, Taylor and Francis Group, London, New York, 2009.
Beven, K.: Rainfall–runoff modelling: The primer, 2nd Edn., Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, 2012.
Short summary
We present a forecasting system comprising additively set-up conceptual and simple error model. Parameters of the conceptual model were left unaltered, as are in most operational set-ups, and the data-driven model was arranged to forecast the corrective measures the conceptual model needs. We demonstrate that the present procedure could effectively improve forecast accuracy over extended lead times with a reliability degree varying inter-annually and inter-seasonally.