Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4965-2014

Articles | Volume 18, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4965-2014

© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Drought forecasting and warning

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4965-2014

© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 12

Research article

|

10 Dec 2014

Research article |

| 10 Dec 2014

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

C. Funk, A. Hoell, S. Shukla, I. Bladé, B. Liebmann, J. B. Roberts, F. R. Robertson, and G. Husak

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Final revised paper (published on 10 Dec 2014)
Preprint (discussion started on 20 Mar 2014)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC C1072: 'reviewer feedback', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Apr 2014
- AC C2368: 'Response to Reviewer 1', C. Funk, 12 Jul 2014
RC C1753: 'Reviewer Comment', Benjamin F. Zaitchik, 05 Jun 2014
- AC C2369: 'Response to Reviewer 2', C. Funk, 12 Jul 2014
AC C2365: 'Response to Reviewer 1', C. Funk, 12 Jul 2014

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (24 Jul 2014) by Micha Werner

AR by C. Funk on behalf of the Authors (05 Sep 2014) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (29 Sep 2014) by Micha Werner

RR by Benjamin F. Zaitchik (20 Oct 2014)

ED: Publish as is (05 Nov 2014) by Micha Werner

AR by C. Funk on behalf of the Authors (14 Nov 2014) Manuscript

Short summary

Western Pacific SST gradients influence eastern East African precipitation in predictable ways. At seasonal and decadal timescales, warm equatorial western Pacific SSTs and cool eastern Pacific SSTs reduce precipitation in East Africa. The gradient between these regions can be used to make reasonably accurate forecasts in one of the world's most food-insecure regions. Recent warming in the western Pacific and stationary eastern Pacific conditions have produced large precipitation declines.