Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.

doi:10.5194/hess-18-4965-2014

Articles | Volume 18, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4965-2014

© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Drought forecasting and warning

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4965-2014

© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 12

Research article

|

10 Dec 2014

Research article |

| 10 Dec 2014

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

C. Funk, A. Hoell, S. Shukla, I. Bladé, B. Liebmann, J. B. Roberts, F. R. Robertson, and G. Husak

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Total article views: 7,282 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
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HTML: 4,010
PDF: 2,936
XML: 336
Total: 7,282
BibTeX: 196
EndNote: 224

Views and downloads (calculated since 20 Mar 2014)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Mar 2014	73	41	6	120
Apr 2014	53	54	5	112
May 2014	39	43	3	85
Jun 2014	23	41	1	65
Jul 2014	29	18	6	53
Aug 2014	19	19	1	39
Sep 2014	55	16	2	73
Oct 2014	28	17	1	46
Nov 2014	23	20	2	45
Dec 2014	79	104	18	201
Jan 2015	23	33	4	60
Feb 2015	25	26	1	52
Mar 2015	23	25	4	52
Apr 2015	46	35	3	84
May 2015	9	15	0	24
Jun 2015	44	26	0	70
Jul 2015	28	25	1	54
Aug 2015	20	33	0	53
Sep 2015	16	11	1	28
Oct 2015	24	15	0	39
Nov 2015	31	26	0	57
Dec 2015	19	33	0	52
Jan 2016	33	24	0	57
Feb 2016	24	20	1	45
Mar 2016	31	22	15	68
Apr 2016	15	52	0	67
May 2016	18	33	0	51
Jun 2016	17	21	0	38
Jul 2016	12	19	2	33
Aug 2016	13	24	0	37
Sep 2016	20	19	0	39
Oct 2016	23	14	6	43
Nov 2016	15	8	8	31
Dec 2016	5	12	0	17
Jan 2017	27	10	1	38
Feb 2017	29	16	2	47
Mar 2017	42	21	2	65
Apr 2017	58	26	1	85
May 2017	46	17	2	65
Jun 2017	77	18	3	98
Jul 2017	58	16	0	74
Aug 2017	13	9	0	22
Sep 2017	11	23	0	34
Oct 2017	23	35	0	58
Nov 2017	14	35	0	49
Dec 2017	17	32	0	49
Jan 2018	17	28	2	47
Feb 2018	43	16	9	68
Mar 2018	14	17	0	31
Apr 2018	15	10	0	25
May 2018	24	18	1	43
Jun 2018	16	16	0	32
Jul 2018	12	20	1	33
Aug 2018	17	36	0	53
Sep 2018	18	31	0	49
Oct 2018	26	26	5	57
Nov 2018	27	30	2	59
Dec 2018	16	25	1	42
Jan 2019	17	15	0	32
Feb 2019	12	9	1	22
Mar 2019	15	28	1	44
Apr 2019	13	13	1	27
May 2019	10	8	0	18
Jun 2019	13	23	0	36
Jul 2019	18	15	0	33
Aug 2019	17	15	0	32
Sep 2019	16	14	0	30
Oct 2019	20	16	1	37
Nov 2019	11	14	0	25
Dec 2019	10	19	1	30
Jan 2020	18	17	2	37
Feb 2020	18	7	0	25
Mar 2020	13	14	0	27
Apr 2020	13	11	0	24
May 2020	12	9	0	21
Jun 2020	17	10	0	27
Jul 2020	30	15	8	53
Aug 2020	19	13	10	42
Sep 2020	19	17	0	36
Oct 2020	14	12	0	26
Nov 2020	25	14	0	39
Dec 2020	17	14	1	32
Jan 2021	30	15	0	45
Feb 2021	17	54	1	72
Mar 2021	19	23	0	42
Apr 2021	18	18	1	37
May 2021	12	15	1	28
Jun 2021	25	26	0	51
Jul 2021	17	11	0	28
Aug 2021	9	23	1	33
Sep 2021	31	57	30	118
Oct 2021	25	38	29	92
Nov 2021	32	36	21	89
Dec 2021	30	18	31	79
Jan 2022	42	28	7	77
Feb 2022	25	11	1	37
Mar 2022	31	16	0	47
Apr 2022	21	23	0	44
May 2022	24	14	0	38
Jun 2022	21	13	2	36
Jul 2022	15	4	0	19
Aug 2022	25	10	0	35
Sep 2022	19	13	0	32
Oct 2022	21	14	1	36
Nov 2022	33	14	0	47
Dec 2022	30	10	2	42
Jan 2023	36	23	3	62
Feb 2023	40	14	3	57
Mar 2023	34	22	2	58
Apr 2023	26	16	3	45
May 2023	22	18	0	40
Jun 2023	16	11	0	27
Jul 2023	19	16	4	39
Aug 2023	28	13	3	44
Sep 2023	70	20	1	91
Oct 2023	173	13	1	187
Nov 2023	173	16	1	190
Dec 2023	26	27	3	56
Jan 2024	19	16	1	36
Feb 2024	20	18	1	39
Mar 2024	20	16	2	38
Apr 2024	39	10	5	54
May 2024	33	8	3	44
Jun 2024	61	12	2	75
Jul 2024	35	12	5	52
Aug 2024	43	11	0	54
Sep 2024	16	23	0	39
Oct 2024	22	10	0	32
Nov 2024	11	9	0	20
Dec 2024	17	28	1	46
Jan 2025	31	37	0	68
Feb 2025	41	12	0	53
Mar 2025	40	13	1	54
Apr 2025	45	14	4	63
May 2025	33	13	0	46
Jun 2025	49	20	0	69
Jul 2025	43	32	2	77
Aug 2025	39	28	4	71
Sep 2025	73	32	2	107
Oct 2025	35	29	1	65
Nov 2025	8	3	1	12

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 20 Mar 2014)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Mar 2014	73	41	6	120
Apr 2014	53	54	5	112
May 2014	39	43	3	85
Jun 2014	23	41	1	65
Jul 2014	29	18	6	53
Aug 2014	19	19	1	39
Sep 2014	55	16	2	73
Oct 2014	28	17	1	46
Nov 2014	23	20	2	45
Dec 2014	79	104	18	201
Jan 2015	23	33	4	60
Feb 2015	25	26	1	52
Mar 2015	23	25	4	52
Apr 2015	46	35	3	84
May 2015	9	15	0	24
Jun 2015	44	26	0	70
Jul 2015	28	25	1	54
Aug 2015	20	33	0	53
Sep 2015	16	11	1	28
Oct 2015	24	15	0	39
Nov 2015	31	26	0	57
Dec 2015	19	33	0	52
Jan 2016	33	24	0	57
Feb 2016	24	20	1	45
Mar 2016	31	22	15	68
Apr 2016	15	52	0	67
May 2016	18	33	0	51
Jun 2016	17	21	0	38
Jul 2016	12	19	2	33
Aug 2016	13	24	0	37
Sep 2016	20	19	0	39
Oct 2016	23	14	6	43
Nov 2016	15	8	8	31
Dec 2016	5	12	0	17
Jan 2017	27	10	1	38
Feb 2017	29	16	2	47
Mar 2017	42	21	2	65
Apr 2017	58	26	1	85
May 2017	46	17	2	65
Jun 2017	77	18	3	98
Jul 2017	58	16	0	74
Aug 2017	13	9	0	22
Sep 2017	11	23	0	34
Oct 2017	23	35	0	58
Nov 2017	14	35	0	49
Dec 2017	17	32	0	49
Jan 2018	17	28	2	47
Feb 2018	43	16	9	68
Mar 2018	14	17	0	31
Apr 2018	15	10	0	25
May 2018	24	18	1	43
Jun 2018	16	16	0	32
Jul 2018	12	20	1	33
Aug 2018	17	36	0	53
Sep 2018	18	31	0	49
Oct 2018	26	26	5	57
Nov 2018	27	30	2	59
Dec 2018	16	25	1	42
Jan 2019	17	15	0	32
Feb 2019	12	9	1	22
Mar 2019	15	28	1	44
Apr 2019	13	13	1	27
May 2019	10	8	0	18
Jun 2019	13	23	0	36
Jul 2019	18	15	0	33
Aug 2019	17	15	0	32
Sep 2019	16	14	0	30
Oct 2019	20	16	1	37
Nov 2019	11	14	0	25
Dec 2019	10	19	1	30
Jan 2020	18	17	2	37
Feb 2020	18	7	0	25
Mar 2020	13	14	0	27
Apr 2020	13	11	0	24
May 2020	12	9	0	21
Jun 2020	17	10	0	27
Jul 2020	30	15	8	53
Aug 2020	19	13	10	42
Sep 2020	19	17	0	36
Oct 2020	14	12	0	26
Nov 2020	25	14	0	39
Dec 2020	17	14	1	32
Jan 2021	30	15	0	45
Feb 2021	17	54	1	72
Mar 2021	19	23	0	42
Apr 2021	18	18	1	37
May 2021	12	15	1	28
Jun 2021	25	26	0	51
Jul 2021	17	11	0	28
Aug 2021	9	23	1	33
Sep 2021	31	57	30	118
Oct 2021	25	38	29	92
Nov 2021	32	36	21	89
Dec 2021	30	18	31	79
Jan 2022	42	28	7	77
Feb 2022	25	11	1	37
Mar 2022	31	16	0	47
Apr 2022	21	23	0	44
May 2022	24	14	0	38
Jun 2022	21	13	2	36
Jul 2022	15	4	0	19
Aug 2022	25	10	0	35
Sep 2022	19	13	0	32
Oct 2022	21	14	1	36
Nov 2022	33	14	0	47
Dec 2022	30	10	2	42
Jan 2023	36	23	3	62
Feb 2023	40	14	3	57
Mar 2023	34	22	2	58
Apr 2023	26	16	3	45
May 2023	22	18	0	40
Jun 2023	16	11	0	27
Jul 2023	19	16	4	39
Aug 2023	28	13	3	44
Sep 2023	70	20	1	91
Oct 2023	173	13	1	187
Nov 2023	173	16	1	190
Dec 2023	26	27	3	56
Jan 2024	19	16	1	36
Feb 2024	20	18	1	39
Mar 2024	20	16	2	38
Apr 2024	39	10	5	54
May 2024	33	8	3	44
Jun 2024	61	12	2	75
Jul 2024	35	12	5	52
Aug 2024	43	11	0	54
Sep 2024	16	23	0	39
Oct 2024	22	10	0	32
Nov 2024	11	9	0	20
Dec 2024	17	28	1	46
Jan 2025	31	37	0	68
Feb 2025	41	12	0	53
Mar 2025	40	13	1	54
Apr 2025	45	14	4	63
May 2025	33	13	0	46
Jun 2025	49	20	0	69
Jul 2025	43	32	2	77
Aug 2025	39	28	4	71
Sep 2025	73	32	2	107
Oct 2025	35	29	1	65
Nov 2025	8	3	1	12

Latest update: 08 Nov 2025

Short summary

Western Pacific SST gradients influence eastern East African precipitation in predictable ways. At seasonal and decadal timescales, warm equatorial western Pacific SSTs and cool eastern Pacific SSTs reduce precipitation in East Africa. The gradient between these regions can be used to make reasonably accurate forecasts in one of the world's most food-insecure regions. Recent warming in the western Pacific and stationary eastern Pacific conditions have produced large precipitation declines.