Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4965-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4965-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices
US~Geological Survey and University of California Santa Barbara Geography, Santa Barbara, USA
A. Hoell
University of California Santa Barbara Geography, Santa Barbara, USA
S. Shukla
University of California Santa Barbara Geography, Santa Barbara, USA
I. Bladé
Universitat de Barcelona and Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain
B. Liebmann
University of Colorado and NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory, Boulder, USA
J. B. Roberts
NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, USA
F. R. Robertson
NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, USA
G. Husak
University of California Santa Barbara Geography, Santa Barbara, USA
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Short summary
Western Pacific SST gradients influence eastern East African precipitation in predictable ways. At seasonal and decadal timescales, warm equatorial western Pacific SSTs and cool eastern Pacific SSTs reduce precipitation in East Africa. The gradient between these regions can be used to make reasonably accurate forecasts in one of the world's most food-insecure regions. Recent warming in the western Pacific and stationary eastern Pacific conditions have produced large precipitation declines.
Western Pacific SST gradients influence eastern East African precipitation in predictable ways....
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