Articles | Volume 17, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2297-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2297-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends
Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey
N. E. Unal
Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey
E. Eris
Ege University, Izmir, Turkey
M. I. Yuce
University of Gaziantep, Gaziantep, Turkey
Related authors
Yonca Cavus, Kerstin Stahl, and Hafzullah Aksoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3427–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
With intensified extremes under climate change, water demand increases. Every drop of water is more valuable than before when drought is experienced particularly. We developed drought intensity–duration–frequency curves using physical indicators, the deficit in precipitation and streamflow, for a more straightforward interpretation. Tests with the observed major droughts in two climatologically different catchments confirmed the practical applicability of the curves under drought conditions.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Gil Mahe, Kate Heal, Akhilendra B. Gupta, and Hafzullah Aksoy
Proc. IAHS, 377, 1–1, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-377-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-377-1-2018, 2018
Hafzullah Aksoy, Veysel Sadan Ozgur Kirca, Halil Ibrahim Burgan, and Dorukhan Kellecioglu
Proc. IAHS, 373, 137–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-137-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-137-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The proposed methodology is easy to use and inexpensive (a free software with minimum amount of data requirement); yet it is very effective in terms of pinpointing the flood-prone locations in urban areas particularly. Expectation is that it provides simple modelling concepts to be help of decision makers in preventing life and monetary losses due to floods. The study is based on an EU project aiming at using simple tools for applicable results.
Yonca Cavus, Kerstin Stahl, and Hafzullah Aksoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3427–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
With intensified extremes under climate change, water demand increases. Every drop of water is more valuable than before when drought is experienced particularly. We developed drought intensity–duration–frequency curves using physical indicators, the deficit in precipitation and streamflow, for a more straightforward interpretation. Tests with the observed major droughts in two climatologically different catchments confirmed the practical applicability of the curves under drought conditions.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Gil Mahe, Kate Heal, Akhilendra B. Gupta, and Hafzullah Aksoy
Proc. IAHS, 377, 1–1, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-377-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-377-1-2018, 2018
Hafzullah Aksoy, Veysel Sadan Ozgur Kirca, Halil Ibrahim Burgan, and Dorukhan Kellecioglu
Proc. IAHS, 373, 137–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-137-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-137-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The proposed methodology is easy to use and inexpensive (a free software with minimum amount of data requirement); yet it is very effective in terms of pinpointing the flood-prone locations in urban areas particularly. Expectation is that it provides simple modelling concepts to be help of decision makers in preventing life and monetary losses due to floods. The study is based on an EU project aiming at using simple tools for applicable results.
Related subject area
Subject: Rivers and Lakes | Techniques and Approaches: Stochastic approaches
Warming of the Willamette River, 1850–present: the effects of climate change and river system alterations
Assimilation of transformed water surface elevation to improve river discharge estimation in a continental-scale river
Deep learning for automated river-level monitoring through river-camera images: an approach based on water segmentation and transfer learning
Do small and large floods have the same drivers of change? A regional attribution analysis in Europe
Flood trends in Europe: are changes in small and big floods different?
A large sample analysis of European rivers on seasonal river flow correlation and its physical drivers
Discharge hydrograph estimation at upstream-ungauged sections by coupling a Bayesian methodology and a 2-D GPU shallow water model
Large-scale hydrological model river storage and discharge correction using a satellite altimetry-based discharge product
Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in Switzerland
Historical impact of water infrastructure on water levels of the Mekong River and the Tonle Sap system
Predictability of Western Himalayan river flow: melt seasonal inflow into Bhakra Reservoir in northern India
The importance of parameter resampling for soil moisture data assimilation into hydrologic models using the particle filter
Stefan A. Talke, David A. Jay, and Heida L. Diefenderfer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2807–2826, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
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Archival measurements and a statistical model show that average water temperature in a major US West Coast river has increased by 1.8 °C since 1850, at a rate of 1.1 °C per century. The largest factor driving modeled changes are warming air temperatures (nearly 75 %). The remainder is primarily caused by depth increases and other modifications to the river system. Near-freezing conditions, common historically, no longer occur, and the number of warm water days has significantly increased.
Menaka Revel, Xudong Zhou, Dai Yamazaki, and Shinjiro Kanae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 647–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-647-2023, 2023
Short summary
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The capacity to discern surface water improved as satellites became more available. Because remote sensing data is discontinuous, integrating models with satellite observations will improve knowledge of water resources. However, given the current limitations (e.g., parameter errors) of water resource modeling, merging satellite data with simulations is problematic. Integrating observations and models with the unique approaches given here can lead to a better estimation of surface water dynamics.
Remy Vandaele, Sarah L. Dance, and Varun Ojha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4435–4453, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4435-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4435-2021, 2021
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The acquisition of river-level data is a critical task for the understanding of flood events but is often complicated by the difficulty to install and maintain gauges able to provide such information. This study proposes applying deep learning techniques on river-camera images in order to automatically extract the corresponding water levels. This approach could allow for a new flexible way to observe flood events, especially at ungauged locations.
Miriam Bertola, Alberto Viglione, Sergiy Vorogushyn, David Lun, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1347–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021, 2021
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We estimate the contribution of extreme precipitation, antecedent soil moisture and snowmelt to changes in small and large floods across Europe.
In northwestern and eastern Europe, changes in small and large floods are driven mainly by one single driver (i.e. extreme precipitation and snowmelt, respectively). In southern Europe both antecedent soil moisture and extreme precipitation significantly contribute to flood changes, and their relative importance depends on flood magnitude.
Miriam Bertola, Alberto Viglione, David Lun, Julia Hall, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1805–1822, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1805-2020, 2020
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We investigate changes that occurred in small vs. big flood events and in small vs. large catchments across Europe over 5 decades. Annual maximum discharge series between 1960 and 2010 from 2370 gauges in Europe are analysed. Distinctive patterns of flood regime change are identified for large regions across Europe, which depend on flood magnitude and catchment size.
Theano Iliopoulou, Cristina Aguilar, Berit Arheimer, María Bermúdez, Nejc Bezak, Andrea Ficchì, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Juraj Parajka, María José Polo, Guillaume Thirel, and Alberto Montanari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 73–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-73-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-73-2019, 2019
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We investigate the seasonal memory properties of a large sample of European rivers in terms of high and low flows. We compute seasonal correlations between peak and low flows and average flows in the previous seasons and explore the links with various physiographic and hydro-climatic catchment descriptors. Our findings suggest that there is a traceable physical basis for river memory which in turn can be employed to reduce uncertainty and improve probabilistic predictions of floods and droughts.
Alessia Ferrari, Marco D'Oria, Renato Vacondio, Alessandro Dal Palù, Paolo Mignosa, and Maria Giovanna Tanda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5299–5316, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5299-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5299-2018, 2018
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The knowledge of discharge hydrographs is useful for flood modelling purposes, water resource management, and the design of hydraulic structures. This paper presents a novel methodology to estimate the unknown discharge hydrograph in an ungauged river section using only water level information recorded downstream. A Bayesian procedure is coupled with a 2-D hydraulic model parallelized for GPUs. Finally, the proposed procedure has been applied to estimate inflow hydrographs in real river reaches.
Charlotte Marie Emery, Adrien Paris, Sylvain Biancamaria, Aaron Boone, Stéphane Calmant, Pierre-André Garambois, and Joecila Santos da Silva
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2135–2162, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2135-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2135-2018, 2018
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This study uses remotely sensed river discharge data to correct river storage and discharge in a large-scale hydrological model. The method is based on an ensemble Kalman filter and also introduces an additional technique that allows for better constraint of the correction (called localization). The approach is applied over the entire Amazon basin. Results show that the method is able to improve river discharge and localization to produce better results along main tributaries.
J. C. Peña, L. Schulte, A. Badoux, M. Barriendos, and A. Barrera-Escoda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3807–3827, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3807-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3807-2015, 2015
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The paper presents an index of summer flood damage in Switzerland from 1800 to 2009 and explores the influence of solar forcing, climate variability and low-frequency atmospheric circulation on flood frequencies. The flood damage index provides evidence that the 1817-1851, 1881-1927, 1977-1990 and 2005-present flood clusters are mostly in phase with palaeoclimate proxies and solar activity minima. Floods are influenced by atmospheric instability related to the principal summer mode.
T. A. Cochrane, M. E. Arias, and T. Piman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4529–4541, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4529-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4529-2014, 2014
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Natural patterns of water levels in the Mekong are changing as a result of hydropower and irrigation development. Since 1991, significant changes in water level fluctuations and rising and falling rates have occurred along the lower Mekong. The changes were linked to temporal and spatial trends in water infrastructure development and can lead to impacts on ecosystem productivity. Climatic change is also important, but it has not been the main cause of the key water level alternations.
I. Pal, U. Lall, A. W. Robertson, M. A. Cane, and R. Bansal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2131–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2131-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2131-2013, 2013
D. A. Plaza, R. De Keyser, G. J. M. De Lannoy, L. Giustarini, P. Matgen, and V. R. N. Pauwels
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 375–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-375-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-375-2012, 2012
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