Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 30, issue 3
Articles | Volume 30, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-893-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-893-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 3
Research article
 | 
13 Feb 2026
Research article |  | 13 Feb 2026

Incorporating natural variability in master recession curves

Thomas A. McMahon, Rory J. Nathan, and Richard George

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Cited articles

Ambroise, B.: Variable water-saturated areas and streamflow generation in the small Ringelbach catchment (Vosges Mountains, France): the master recession curve as an equilibrium curve for interactions between atmosphere, surface and ground waters, Hydrol. Process., 30, 3560–3577, 2016. 
Arnold, J. G., Allen, P. M., Muttiah, R., and Bernhardt, G.: Automated base flow separation and recession analysis techniques, Groundwater, 33, 1010–1018, 1995. 
Barnes, B. S.: The structure of discharge-recession curves, Transactions AGU, 20, 721–725, 1939. 
Bart, R. and Hope, A.: Inter-seasonal variability in baseflow recession rates: The role of aquifer antecedent storage in central California watersheds, J. Hydrol., 519, 205–213, 2014. 
Beran, M. A. and Gustard, A.: A study into the low-flow characteristics of British Rivers, J. Hydrol., 35, 147–157, 1977. 
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Master Recession Curves have long been used to estimate the decline in streamflows following rainfall. Although the approach has wide practical application in water management, it can be overly simple and not match all observations. We propose an approach that represents the changes in streamflow behaviour due to variations in climate and geology. The approach matches observed behaviour well, is consistent with field observations, and is well suited to uncertainty analysis.
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