Articles | Volume 30, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1463-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1463-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Mar 2026
Research article |
| 23 Mar 2026
| 23 Mar 2026
Future changes in seasonal drought in Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW Sydney, High Street, Kensington, New South Wales 2052, Australia
Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, High Street, Kensington, New South Wales 2052, Australia
Steven Thomas
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW Sydney, High Street, Kensington, New South Wales 2052, Australia
Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins Street, Docklands, Victoria 3008, Australia
Elisabeth Vogel
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW Sydney, High Street, Kensington, New South Wales 2052, Australia
Water Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, High Street, Kensington, New South Wales 2052, Australia
Ulrike Bende-Michl
Bureau of Meteorology, 1 & 2 B Block Treasury Building, Parkes, Australian Capital Territory 2600, Australia
Steven Siems
School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, 9 Rainforest Walk, Clayton, Victoria 3800, Australia
Vjekoslav Matic
Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins Street, Docklands, Victoria 3008, Australia
Wendy Sharples
Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins Street, Docklands, Victoria 3008, Australia
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Marine low-level clouds cover vast areas of the Southern Ocean, and they are essential to the Earth system energy balance. We use 3 years of satellite observations to group low-level clouds by their spatial structure using a pattern-recognizing program. We studied two primary cloud type patterns, i.e. open and closed clouds. Open clouds are uniformly distributed over the storm track, while closed clouds are most predominant in the southeastern Indian Ocean. Closed clouds exhibit a daily cycle.
Anna M. Ukkola, Gab Abramowitz, and Martin G. De Kauwe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 449–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-449-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flux towers provide measurements of water, energy, and carbon fluxes. Flux tower data are invaluable in improving and evaluating land models but are not suited to modelling applications as published. Here we present flux tower data tailored for land modelling, encompassing 170 sites globally. Our dataset resolves several key limitations hindering the use of flux tower data in land modelling, including incomplete forcing variable, data format, and low data quality.
Sami W. Rifai, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Lucas A. Cernusak, Patrick Meir, Belinda E. Medlyn, and Andy J. Pitman
Biogeosciences, 19, 491–515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-491-2022, 2022
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Australia's woody ecosystems have experienced widespread greening despite a warming climate and repeated record-breaking droughts and heat waves. Increasing atmospheric CO2 increases plant water use efficiency, yet quantifying the CO2 effect is complicated due to co-occurring effects of global change. Here we harmonized a 38-year satellite record to separate the effects of climate change, land use change, and disturbance to quantify the CO2 fertilization effect on the greening phenomenon.
Danlu Guo, Camille Minaudo, Anna Lintern, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Shuci Liu, Kefeng Zhang, and Clément Duvert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1-2022, 2022
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We investigate the impact of baseflow contribution on concentration–flow (C–Q) relationships across the Australian continent. We developed a novel Bayesian hierarchical model for six water quality variables across 157 catchments that span five climate zones. For sediments and nutrients, the C–Q slope is generally steeper for catchments with a higher median and a greater variability of baseflow contribution, highlighting the key role of variable flow pathways in particulate and solute export.
Mengyuan Mu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Andy J. Pitman, Weidong Guo, Sanaa Hobeichi, and Peter R. Briggs
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 919–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-919-2021, 2021
Short summary
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Groundwater can buffer the impacts of drought and heatwaves on ecosystems, which is often neglected in model studies. Using a land surface model with groundwater, we explained how groundwater sustains transpiration and eases heat pressure on plants in heatwaves during multi-year droughts. Our results showed the groundwater’s influences diminish as drought extends and are regulated by plant physiology. We suggest neglecting groundwater in models may overstate projected future heatwave intensity.
Siyuan Tian, Luigi J. Renzullo, Robert C. Pipunic, Julien Lerat, Wendy Sharples, and Chantal Donnelly
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4567–4584, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4567-2021, 2021
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Cited articles
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Australian Bureau of Meteorology: The Bureau of Meteorology's National Hydrological Projection data collection on changes to Australia's hydrological water balance, NCI Data Catalogue [data set], https://doi.org/10.25914/6198463da4f22, 2021.
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Short summary
Future drought changes in Australia –the driest inhabited continent on Earth– have remained stubbornly uncertain. We assess future drought changes in Australia using projections from climate and hydrological models. We show an increasing probability of drought in highly-populated and agricultural regions of Australia in coming decades, suggesting potential impacts on agricultural activities, ecosystems and urban water supply.
Future drought changes in Australia –the driest inhabited continent on Earth– have remained...
