Future changes in seasonal drought in Australia

Ukkola, Anna M.; Thomas, Steven; Vogel, Elisabeth; Bende-Michl, Ulrike; Siems, Steven; Matic, Vjekoslav; Sharples, Wendy

doi:10.5194/hess-30-1463-2026

Articles | Volume 30, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1463-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1463-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 30, issue 6

Research article

|

23 Mar 2026

Research article |

| 23 Mar 2026

Future changes in seasonal drought in Australia

Anna M. Ukkola, Steven Thomas, Elisabeth Vogel, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Steven Siems, Vjekoslav Matic, and Wendy Sharples

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1463-2026-supplement

Data sets

Australian Gridded Climate Data (AGCD) v1.0.0/Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) Australian Bureau of Meteorology https://doi.org/10.25914/6009600b58196

The Bureau of Meteorology's National Hydrological Projection data collection on changes to Australia's hydrological water balance Australian Bureau of Meteorology https://doi.org/10.25914/6198463da4f22

Model code and software

Analysis codes for "Future changes in seasonal drought in Australia" A. Ukkola https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19104304

Short summary

Future drought changes in Australia –the driest inhabited continent on Earth– have remained stubbornly uncertain. We assess future drought changes in Australia using projections from climate and hydrological models. We show an increasing probability of drought in highly-populated and agricultural regions of Australia in coming decades, suggesting potential impacts on agricultural activities, ecosystems and urban water supply.