Articles | Volume 29, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6647-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6647-2025
Research article
 | 
24 Nov 2025
Research article |  | 24 Nov 2025

Robust adaptive pathways for long-term flood control in delta cities: addressing pluvial flood risks under future deep uncertainty

Hengzhi Hu, Qian Ke, Wei Wu, Min Zhang, Yanjuan Wu, Chengming Jin, and Jiahong Wen

Related authors

Review article: Research progress on influencing factors, data, and methods for early identification of landslide hazards
Heng Lu, Zhengli Yang, Kai Song, Zhijie Zhang, Chao Liu, Ruihua Nie, Lei Ma, Wanchang Zhang, Gang Fan, Chen Chen, and Min Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-68,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-68, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
The Early Identification of Flash Flood Disasters: Mechanism, Model and Uncertainty
Zhengli Yang, Heng Lu, Kai Song, Zhijie Zhang, Chao Liu, Ruihua Nie, Lei Ma, Wanchang Zhang, Chen Chen, Min Zhang, and Gang Fan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-69,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-69, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Assessment of building damage and risk under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Compound flood impact of water level and rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in a coastal city: the case of Shanghai
Hanqing Xu, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Qinghua Ye, Elisa Ragno, Jeremy Bricker, Ganquan Mao, Jinkai Tan, Jun Wang, Qian Ke, Shuai Wang, and Ralf Toumi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2347-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2347-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Bartholomew, E. and Kwakkel, J. H.: On considering robustness in the search phase of robust decision making: a comparison of many-objective robust decision making, multi-scenario many-objective robust decision making, and many objective robust optimization, Environmental Modelling & Software, 127, 104699, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104699, 2020. 
Dias, L. F., Aparício, B. A., Nunes, J. P., Morais, I., Fonseca, A. L., Pastor, A. V., and Santos, F. D.: Integrating a hydrological model into regional water policies: Co-creation of climate change dynamic adaptive policy pathways for water resources in southern Portugal, Environmental Science & Policy, 114, 519–532, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.09.020, 2020. 
Dottori, F., Mentaschi, L., Bianchi, A., Alfieri, L., and Feyen, L.: Cost-effective adaptation strategies to rising river flood risk in Europe, Nature Climate Change, 13, 196–202, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01540-0, 2023. 
Du, S., Scussolini, P., Ward, P. J., Zhang, M., Wen, J., Wang, L., Koks, E., Diaz-Loaiza, A., Gao, J., Ke, Q., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Hard or soft flood adaptation? Advantages of a hybrid strategy for Shanghai, Global Environmental Change, 61, 102037, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102037, 2020. 
Erfani, T., Pachos, K., and Harou, J. J.: Real-Options Water Supply Planning: Multistage Scenario Trees for Adaptive and Flexible Capacity Expansion Under Probabilistic Climate Change Uncertainty, Water Resources Research, 54, 5069–5087, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR021803, 2018. 
Download
Short summary
This study proposes a framework combining robustness and adaptiveness for long-term flood planning. Applied to Shanghai, it shows that the most cost-effective option may not meet long-term goals, and a combination of green spaces, drainage, and tunnels outperforms alternative options. The findings emphasize that flexibility and adaptability are critical for developing robust, long-term adaptation pathways and minimizing future risks in other urban areas.
Share