Articles | Volume 29, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4951-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4951-2025
Research article
 | 
06 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 06 Oct 2025

Exploring the ability of LSTM-based hydrological models to simulate streamflow time series for flood frequency analysis

Jean-Luc Martel, Richard Arsenault, Richard Turcotte, Mariana Castañeda-Gonzalez, François Brissette, William Armstrong, Edouard Mailhot, Jasmine Pelletier-Dumont, Simon Lachance-Cloutier, Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse, and Louis-Philippe Caron

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Cited articles

Apel, H., Thieken, A. H., Merz, B., and Blöschl, G.: Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 295–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-295-2004, 2004. 
Arsenault, R. and Brissette, F. P.: Continuous streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: The effects of equifinality and parameter set selection on uncertainty in regionalization approaches, Water Resour. Res., 50, 6135–6153, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014898, 2014. 
Arsenault, R., Essou, G. R. C., and Brissette, F. P.: Improving hydrological model simulations with combined multi-input and multimodel averaging frameworks, J. Hydrol. Eng., 22, 04016066, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001489, 2017. 
Arsenault, R., Brissette, F., and Martel, J.-L.: The hazards of split-sample validation in hydrological model calibration, J. Hydrol., 566, 346–362, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.09.027, 2018. 
Arsenault, R., Breton-Dufour, M., Poulin, A., Dallaire, G., and Romero-Lopez, R.: Streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: analysis of regionalization methods in a hydrologically heterogeneous region of Mexico, Hydrol. Sci. J., 64, 1297–1311, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1639716, 2019. 
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Short summary
This study explores six methods to improve the ability of long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks to predict peak streamflows, crucial for flood analysis. By enhancing data inputs and model techniques, the research shows that LSTM models can match or surpass traditional hydrological models in simulating peak flows. Tested on 88 catchments in Quebec, Canada, these methods offer promising strategies for better flood prediction.
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