Articles | Volume 29, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3435-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3435-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Aug 2025
Research article |
| 01 Aug 2025
| 01 Aug 2025
The role of land–atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction across the contiguous United States
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA
Andrea M. Molod
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA
Randal D. Koster
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA
Joseph A. Santanello
Hydrological Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA
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Short summary
To better utilize a given set of predictions, identifying “forecasts of opportunity” is valuable as this helps anticipate when prediction skill will be higher. This study shows that when strong land–atmosphere (L–A) coupling is detected 3–4 weeks into a forecast, the surface air temperature prediction skill at this lead time increases across the Midwest and northern Great Plains. Regions experiencing strong L–A coupling exhibit warm and dry anomalies, enhancing predictions of abnormally warm events.
To better utilize a given set of predictions, identifying “forecasts of opportunity” is valuable...
