Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 29, issue 15
Articles | Volume 29, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3435-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3435-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 29, issue 15
Research article
 | 
01 Aug 2025
Research article |  | 01 Aug 2025

The role of land–atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction across the contiguous United States

Yuna Lim, Andrea M. Molod, Randal D. Koster, and Joseph A. Santanello

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Short summary
To better utilize a given set of predictions, identifying “forecasts of opportunity” is valuable as this helps anticipate when prediction skill will be higher. This study shows that when strong land–atmosphere (L–A) coupling is detected 3–4 weeks into a forecast, the surface air temperature prediction skill at this lead time increases across the Midwest and northern Great Plains. Regions experiencing strong L–A coupling exhibit warm and dry anomalies, enhancing predictions of abnormally warm events.
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