Articles | Volume 29, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3435-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3435-2025
Research article
 | 
01 Aug 2025
Research article |  | 01 Aug 2025

The role of land–atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction across the contiguous United States

Yuna Lim, Andrea M. Molod, Randal D. Koster, and Joseph A. Santanello

Data sets

The ERA5 global reanalysis (https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/d633000/) H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803

Model code and software

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets?project=MERRA-2) R. Gelaro et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1

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Short summary
To better utilize a given set of predictions, identifying “forecasts of opportunity” is valuable as this helps anticipate when prediction skill will be higher. This study shows that when strong land–atmosphere (L–A) coupling is detected 3–4 weeks into a forecast, the surface air temperature prediction skill at this lead time increases across the Midwest and northern Great Plains. Regions experiencing strong L–A coupling exhibit warm and dry anomalies, enhancing predictions of abnormally warm events.
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