Articles | Volume 28, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Jun 2024
Research article |
| 11 Jun 2024
| 11 Jun 2024
The influence of human activities on streamflow reductions during the megadrought in central Chile
Nicolás Álamos
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2, FONDAP/1523A0002), Santiago, Chile
Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra (ICT), Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
Centro de Acción Climática, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
Camila Alvarez-Garreton
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2, FONDAP/1523A0002), Santiago, Chile
Ariel Muñoz
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2, FONDAP/1523A0002), Santiago, Chile
Centro de Acción Climática, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Estudios Ambientales, Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
Centro Regional de Investigación e Innovación para la Sostenibilidad de la Agricultura y los Territorios Rurales, Ceres Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso (PUCV), Valparaíso, Chile
Álvaro González-Reyes
Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra (ICT), Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
Centro de Humedales río Cruces (CEHUM), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
Centro de Investigación: Dinámica de Ecosistemas Marinos de Altas Latitudes – IDEAL, Valdivia, Chile
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René Garreaud, Juan Pablo Boisier, Camila Álvarez-Garreton, Duncan Christie, Tomás Carrasco-Escaff, Iván Vergara, Roberto O. Chávez, Paulina Aldunce, Pablo Camus, Manuel Suazo-Álvarez, Mariano Masiokas, Gabriel Castro, Ariel Muñoz, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Rodrigo Fuster, and Lintsiee Godoy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-517, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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This study focuses on hyperdroughts (HDs) in central Chile, defined as years with a regional rainfall deficit exceeding 75 %. Only five HDs occurred in the last century (1924, 1968, 1998, 2019, 2021), but they caused disproportionate environmental and social impacts. In some systems, the effects were larger than expected from those considering moderate droughts and dependent on the antecedent conditions. HDs have analogs from the remote past, and they are expected to increase in the near future.
Nicolás García-Lee, Claudio Bravo, Álvaro Gónzalez-Reyes, and Piero Mardones
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1137–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1137-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1137-2024, 2024
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This study analyses the 0 °C isotherm in Patagonia from 1959 to 2021, using observational and fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis data. The model aligns well with observations, highlighting significant altitude variations between the western and eastern sides of the austral Andes, a correlation between isotherm fluctuations and the Southern Annular Mode index, and an upward trend in the study area (especially in northwestern Patagonia).
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
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Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Juan Pablo Boisier, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Rodrigo Marinao, and Mauricio Galleguillos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2695, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2695, 2024
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Our study examines water stress in Chile from mid-20th century to the end of the 21st century, using novel datasets on water availability, land use, and water use. We compute a water stress index for all basins in Chile and show that rising water use significantly contributes to water stress. We also show that a drier future is expected in central Chile and that the water stress index can be used as a tool for designing adaptation strategies.
Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Juan Pablo Boisier, René Garreaud, Javier González, Roberto Rondanelli, Eugenia Gayó, and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1605–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1605-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1605-2024, 2024
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This opinion paper reflects on the risks of overusing groundwater savings to supply permanent water use requirements. Using novel data recently developed for Chile, we reveal how groundwater is being overused, causing ecological and socioeconomic impacts and concealing a Day Zero
scenario. Our argument underscores the need for reformed water allocation rules and sustainable management, shifting from a perception of groundwater as an unlimited source to a finite and vital one.
Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Diego G. Miralles, Hylke E. Beck, Jonatan F. Siegmund, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Koen Verbist, René Garreaud, Juan Pablo Boisier, and Mauricio Galleguillos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1415–1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1415-2024, 2024
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Various drought indices exist, but there is no consensus on which index to use to assess streamflow droughts. This study addresses meteorological, soil moisture, and snow indices along with their temporal scales to assess streamflow drought across hydrologically diverse catchments. Using data from 100 Chilean catchments, findings suggest that there is not a single drought index that can be used for all catchments and that snow-influenced areas require drought indices with larger temporal scales.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
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As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Juan Pablo Boisier, René Garreaud, Jan Seibert, and Marc Vis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-429-2021, 2021
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The megadrought experienced in Chile (2010–2020) has led to larger than expected water deficits. By analysing 106 basins with snow-/rainfall regimes, we relate such intensification with the hydrological memory of the basins, explained by snow and groundwater. Snow-dominated basins have larger memory and thus accumulate the effect of persistent precipitation deficits more strongly than pluvial basins. This notably affects central Chile, a water-limited region where most of the population lives.
Álvaro González-Reyes, Claudio Bravo, Mathias Vuille, Martin Jacques-Coper, Maisa Rojas, Esteban Sagredo, and James McPhee
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-37, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-37, 2019
Publication in CP not foreseen
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The "Little Ice Age" (LIA), has long been recognized as the last period when mountain glaciers recorded extensive growth intervals. In the Mediterranean Andes (MA; 30º–37º S), the LIA has been poorly documented. Here, we performed an experiment using three GCMs to force a novel glaciological model. We simulated temporal variations of the ELA to evaluate the glacier response. We propose that Pacific SST variability was the main modulator of temporal changes of the ELA in the MA region during LIA.
Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Pablo A. Mendoza, Juan Pablo Boisier, Nans Addor, Mauricio Galleguillos, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Antonio Lara, Cristóbal Puelma, Gonzalo Cortes, Rene Garreaud, James McPhee, and Alvaro Ayala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5817–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5817-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5817-2018, 2018
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CAMELS-CL provides a catchment dataset in Chile, including 516 catchment boundaries, hydro-meteorological time series, and 70 catchment attributes quantifying catchments' climatic, hydrological, topographic, geological, land cover and anthropic intervention features. By using CAMELS-CL, we characterise hydro-climatic regional variations, assess precipitation and potential evapotranspiration uncertainties, and analyse human intervention impacts on catchment response.
Alfonso Fernández, Ariel Muñoz, Álvaro González-Reyes, Isabella Aguilera-Betti, Isadora Toledo, Paulina Puchi, David Sauchyn, Sebastián Crespo, Cristian Frene, Ignacio Mundo, Mauro González, and Raffaele Vignola
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2921-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2921-2018, 2018
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Short-term river discharge records hamper assessment of the severity of modern droughts in south-central Chile, making effective water management difficult. To support decision-making, we present a ~300-year tree-ring reconstruction of summer discharge for this region. Results show that since 1980, droughts have become more frequent and are related to a shift in large-scale climate. We argue that water managers should use this long-term view to better allocate water rights.
René D. Garreaud, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Jonathan Barichivich, Juan Pablo Boisier, Duncan Christie, Mauricio Galleguillos, Carlos LeQuesne, James McPhee, and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6307–6327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6307-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6307-2017, 2017
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This work synthesizes an interdisciplinary research on the megadrought (MD) that has afflicted central Chile since 2010. Although 1- or 2-year droughts are not infrequent in this Mediterranean-like region, the ongoing dry period stands out because of its longevity and large extent, leading to unseen hydrological effects and vegetation impacts. Understanding the nature and biophysical impacts of the MD contributes to confronting a dry, warm future regional climate scenario in subtropical regions.
C. Alvarez-Garreton, D. Ryu, A. W. Western, C.-H. Su, W. T. Crow, D. E. Robertson, and C. Leahy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1659–1676, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1659-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1659-2015, 2015
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We assimilate satellite soil moisture into a rainfall-runoff model for improving flood prediction within a data-scarce region. We argue that the spatially distributed satellite data can alleviate the model prediction limitations. We show that satellite soil moisture DA reduces the uncertainty of the streamflow ensembles. We propose new techniques for the DA scheme, including seasonal error characterisation, bias correction of the satellite retrievals, and model error representation.
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
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CH-RUN: a deep-learning-based spatially contiguous runoff reconstruction for Switzerland
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State updating of the Xin'anjiang model: joint assimilating streamflow and multi-source soil moisture data via the asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter with enhanced error models
Improving the hydrological consistency of a process-based solute-transport model by simultaneous calibration of streamflow and stream concentrations
Leveraging a time-series event separation method to disentangle time-varying hydrologic controls on streamflow – application to wildfire-affected catchments
The significance of the leaf area index for evapotranspiration estimation in SWAT-T for characteristic land cover types of West Africa
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Spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow in water-scarce Mediterranean basins
A large-sample modelling approach towards integrating streamflow and evaporation data for the Spanish catchments
Seasonal variation in land cover estimates reveals sensitivities and opportunities for environmental models
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On the use of streamflow transformations for hydrological model calibration
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Assesing the Value of High-Resolution Data and Parameters Transferability Across Temporal Scales in Hydrological Modeling: A Case Study in Northern China
Hybrid hydrological modeling for large alpine basins: a semi-distributed approach
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Karst aquifer discharge response to rainfall interpreted as anomalous transport
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Comment on “Are soils overrated in hydrology?” by Gao et al. (2023)
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Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China
On the importance of plant phenology in the evaporative process of a semi-arid woodland: could it be why satellite-based evaporation estimates in the miombo differ?
Assessing the adequacy of traditional hydrological models for climate change impact studies: A case for long-short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks
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Evolution of river regimes in the Mekong River basin over 8 decades and the role of dams in recent hydrological extremes
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When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling
Fabián Lema, Pablo A. Mendoza, Nicolás A. Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1981–2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1981-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1981-2025, 2025
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Hydrological droughts affect ecosystems and socioeconomic activities worldwide. Despite the fact that they are commonly described with the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), there is limited understanding of what they truly reflect in terms of water cycle processes. Here, we used state-of-the-art hydrological models in Andean basins to examine drivers of SSI fluctuations. The results highlight the importance of careful selection of indices and timescales for accurate drought characterization and monitoring.
Sebastian Gegenleithner, Manuel Pirker, Clemens Dorfmann, Roman Kern, and Josef Schneider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1939–1962, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1939-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1939-2025, 2025
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Accurate early-warning systems are crucial for reducing the damage caused by flooding events. In this study, we explored the potential of long short-term memory networks for enhancing the forecast accuracy of hydrologic models employed in operational flood forecasting. The presented approach elevated the investigated hydrologic model’s forecast accuracy for further ahead predictions and at flood event runoff.
Mahmut Tudaji, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1919–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1919-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1919-2025, 2025
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Common intuition holds that higher input data resolution leads to better results. To assess the benefits of high-resolution data, we conduct simulation experiments using data with various temporal resolutions across multiple catchments and find that higher-resolution data do not always improve model performance, challenging the necessity of pursuing such data. In catchments with small areas or significant flow variability, high-resolution data is more valuable.
Muhammad Ibrahim, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Ruud van der Ent, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1703–1723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1703-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1703-2025, 2025
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The quantification of precipitation into evaporation and runoff is vital for water resources management. The Budyko framework, based on aridity and evaporative indices of a catchment, can be an ideal tool for that. However, recent research highlights deviations of catchments from the expected evaporative index, casting doubt on its reliability. This study quantifies deviations of 2387 catchments, finding them minor and predictable. Integrating these into predictions upholds the framework's efficacy.
Anne-Laure Argentin, Pascal Horton, Bettina Schaefli, Jamal Shokory, Felix Pitscheider, Leona Repnik, Mattia Gianini, Simone Bizzi, Stuart N. Lane, and Francesco Comiti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1725–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1725-2025, 2025
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In this article, we show that by taking the optimal parameters calibrated with a semi-lumped model for the discharge at a catchment's outlet, we can accurately simulate runoff at various points within the study area, including three nested and three neighboring catchments. In addition, we demonstrate that employing more intricate melt models, which better represent physical processes, enhances the transfer of parameters in the simulation, until we observe overparameterization.
Ryan S. Padrón, Massimiliano Zappa, Luzi Bernhard, and Konrad Bogner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1685–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1685-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1685-2025, 2025
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We generate operational forecasts of daily maximum stream water temperature for 32 consecutive days at 54 stations in Switzerland with our best-performing data-driven model. The average forecast error is 0.38 °C for 1 d ahead and increases to 0.90 °C for 32 d ahead given the uncertainty in the meteorological variables influencing water temperature. Here we compare the skill of several models, how well they can forecast at new and ungauged stations, and the importance of different model inputs.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Ralf Loritz, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1749–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1749-2025, 2025
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Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance for rainfall-runoff hydrological modelling. However, most studies focus on predictions at a daily scale, limiting the benefits of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions in applications like flood forecasting. In this study, we introduce a new architecture, multi-frequency LSTM (MF-LSTM), designed to use inputs of various temporal frequencies to produce sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions at a moderate computational cost.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Alexandre Devers, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Claire Lauvernet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Núria Bonada, Zoltán Csabai, Heikki Mykrä, Petr Pařil, Luka Polović, and Thibault Datry
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1615–1636, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1615-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1615-2025, 2025
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Our study projects how climate change will affect the drying of river segments and stream networks in Europe, using advanced modelling techniques to assess changes in six river networks across diverse ecoregions. We found that drying events will become more frequent and intense and will start earlier or last longer, potentially turning some river sections from perennial to intermittent. The results are valuable for river ecologists for evaluating the ecological health of river ecosystem.
Tariq Aziz, Steven K. Frey, David R. Lapen, Susan Preston, Hazen A. J. Russell, Omar Khader, Andre R. Erler, and Edward A. Sudicky
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1549–1568, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1549-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1549-2025, 2025
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This study determines the value of subsurface water for ecosystem services' supply in an agricultural watershed in Ontario, Canada. Using a fully integrated water model and an economic valuation approach, the research highlights subsurface water's critical role in maintaining watershed ecosystem services. The study informs on the sustainable use of subsurface water and introduces a new method for managing watershed ecosystem services.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1277–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1277-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1277-2025, 2025
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Data-driven techniques have shown the potential to outperform process-based models in rainfall–runoff simulations. Hybrid models, combining both approaches, aim to enhance accuracy and maintain interpretability. Expanding the set of test cases to evaluate hybrid models under different conditions, we test their generalization capabilities for extreme hydrological events.
Basil Kraft, Michael Schirmer, William H. Aeberhard, Massimiliano Zappa, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Lukas Gudmundsson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1061–1082, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1061-2025, 2025
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This study reconstructs daily runoff in Switzerland (1962–2023) using a deep-learning model, providing a spatially contiguous dataset on a medium-sized catchment grid. The model outperforms traditional hydrological methods, revealing shifts in Swiss water resources, including more frequent dry years and declining summer runoff. The reconstruction is publicly available.
Mengjiao Zhang, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1033–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1033-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1033-2025, 2025
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Owing to differences in the existing published results, we conducted a detailed analysis of the runoff components and future trends in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin and found that the contributions of snowmelt and glacier melt runoff to streamflow (both ~5 %) are limited and much lower than previous results. The streamflow in this area will continuously increase in the future, but the overestimated contribution of glacier melt could lead to an underestimation of this increasing trend.
Tian Lan, Tongfang Li, Hongbo Zhang, Jiefeng Wu, Yongqin David Chen, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 903–924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-903-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-903-2025, 2025
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This study develops an integrated framework based on the novel Driving index for changes in Precipitation–Runoff Relationships (DPRR) to explore the controlling changes in precipitation–runoff relationships in non-stationary environments. According to the quantitative results of the candidate driving factors, the possible process explanations for changes in the precipitation–runoff relationships are deduced. The main contribution offers a comprehensive understanding of hydrological processes.
Everett Snieder and Usman T. Khan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 785–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-785-2025, 2025
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Improving the accuracy of flood forecasts is paramount to minimising flood damage. Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being applied for flood forecasting. Such models are typically trained on large historic hydrometeorological datasets. In this work, we evaluate methods for selecting training datasets that maximise the spatio-temporal diversity of the represented hydrological processes. Empirical results showcase the importance of hydrological diversity in training ML models.
Joško Trošelj and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 753–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-753-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-753-2025, 2025
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This study presents the first distributed hydrological simulation which confirms claims raised by historians that the eastward diversion project of the Tone River in Japan was conducted 4 centuries ago to increase low flows and subsequent travelling possibilities surrounding the capital, Edo (Tokyo), using inland navigation. We showed that great steps forward can be made for improving quality of life with small human engineering waterworks and small interventions in the regime of natural flows.
Léonard Santos, Vazken Andréassian, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Göran Lindström, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, Lila Collet, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, 2025
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This work investigates how hydrological models are transferred to a period in which climate conditions are different to the ones of the period in which they were set up. The robustness assessment test built to detect dependencies between model error and climatic drivers was applied to three hydrological models in 352 catchments in Denmark, France and Sweden. Potential issues are seen in a significant number of catchments for the models, even though the catchments differ for each model.
Xudong Zheng, Dengfeng Liu, Shengzhi Huang, Hao Wang, and Xianmeng Meng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 627–653, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-627-2025, 2025
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Water budget non-closure is a widespread phenomenon among multisource datasets which undermines the robustness of hydrological inferences. This study proposes a Multisource Dataset Correction Framework grounded in Physical Hydrological Process Modelling to enhance water budget closure, termed PHPM-MDCF. We examined the efficiency and robustness of the framework using the CAMELS dataset and achieved an average reduction of 49 % in total water budget residuals across 475 CONUS basins.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Viet Dung Nguyen, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 447–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, 2025
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Flood peak distributions indicate how likely the occurrence of an extreme flood is at a certain river. If the distribution has a so-called heavy tail, extreme floods are more likely than might be anticipated. We find heavier tails in small catchments compared to large catchments, and spatially variable rainfall leads to a lower occurrence probability of extreme floods. Spatially variable runoff does not show effects. The results can improve estimations of probabilities of extreme floods.
Junfu Gong, Xingwen Liu, Cheng Yao, Zhijia Li, Albrecht H. Weerts, Qiaoling Li, Satish Bastola, Yingchun Huang, and Junzeng Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 335–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, 2025
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Our study introduces a new method to improve flood forecasting by combining soil moisture and streamflow data using an advanced data assimilation technique. By integrating field and reanalysis soil moisture data and assimilating this with streamflow measurements, we aim to enhance the accuracy of flood predictions. This approach reduces the accumulation of past errors in the initial conditions at the start of the forecast, helping to better prepare for and respond to floods.
Jordy Salmon-Monviola, Ophélie Fovet, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 127–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, 2025
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To increase the predictive power of hydrological models, it is necessary to improve their consistency, i.e. their physical realism, which is measured by the ability of the model to reproduce observed system dynamics. Using a model to represent the dynamics of water and nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in an agricultural catchment, we showed that using solute-concentration data for calibration is useful to improve the hydrological consistency of the model.
Haley A. Canham, Belize Lane, Colin B. Phillips, and Brendan P. Murphy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 27–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, 2025
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The influence of watershed disturbances has proved challenging to disentangle from natural streamflow variability. This study evaluates the influence of time-varying hydrologic controls on rainfall–runoff in undisturbed and wildfire-disturbed watersheds using a novel time-series event separation method. Across watersheds, water year type and season influenced rainfall–runoff patterns. Accounting for these controls enabled clearer isolation of wildfire effects.
Fabian Merk, Timo Schaffhauser, Faizan Anwar, Ye Tuo, Jean-Martial Cohard, and Markus Disse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5511–5539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, 2024
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Evapotranspiration (ET) is computed from the vegetation (plant transpiration) and soil (soil evaporation). In western Africa, plant transpiration correlates with vegetation growth. Vegetation is often represented using the leaf area index (LAI). In this study, we evaluate the importance of the LAI for ET calculation. We take a close look at this interaction and highlight its relevance. Our work contributes to the understanding of terrestrial water cycle processes .
Eshrat Fatima, Rohini Kumar, Sabine Attinger, Maren Kaluza, Oldrich Rakovec, Corinna Rebmann, Rafael Rosolem, Sascha E. Oswald, Luis Samaniego, Steffen Zacharias, and Martin Schrön
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5419–5441, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, 2024
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This study establishes a framework to incorporate cosmic-ray neutron measurements into the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). We evaluate different approaches to estimate neutron counts within the mHM using the Desilets equation, with uniformly and non-uniformly weighted average soil moisture, and the physically based code COSMIC. The data improved not only soil moisture simulations but also the parameterisation of evapotranspiration in the model.
Laia Estrada, Xavier Garcia, Joan Saló-Grau, Rafael Marcé, Antoni Munné, and Vicenç Acuña
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5353–5373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, 2024
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Hydrological modelling is a powerful tool to support decision-making. We assessed spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow for 2001–2022 with a hydrological model, integrating stakeholder expert knowledge on management operations. The results provide insight into how climate change and anthropogenic pressures affect water resources availability in regions vulnerable to water scarcity, thus raising the need for sustainable management practices and integrated hydrological modelling.
Patricio Yeste, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Sonia R. Gámiz-Fortis, Yolanda Castro-Díez, Axel Bronstert, and María Jesús Esteban-Parra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5331–5352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, 2024
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Integrating streamflow and evaporation data can help improve the physical realism of hydrologic models. We investigate the capabilities of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) to reproduce both hydrologic variables for 189 headwater located in Spain. Results from sensitivity analyses indicate that adding two vegetation parameters is enough to improve the representation of evaporation and that the performance of VIC exceeded that of the largest modelling effort currently available in Spain.
Daniel T. Myers, David Jones, Diana Oviedo-Vargas, John Paul Schmit, Darren L. Ficklin, and Xuesong Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5295–5310, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, 2024
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We studied how streamflow and water quality models respond to land cover data collected by satellites during the growing season versus the non-growing season. The land cover data showed more trees during the growing season and more built areas during the non-growing season. We next found that the use of non-growing season data resulted in a higher modeled nutrient export to streams. Knowledge of these sensitivities would be particularly important when models inform water resource management.
Kevin R. Shook, Paul H. Whitfield, Christopher Spence, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5173–5192, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, 2024
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Recent studies suggest that the velocities of water running off landscapes in the Canadian Prairies may be much smaller than generally assumed. Analyses of historical flows for 23 basins in central Alberta show that many of the rivers responded more slowly and that the flows are much slower than would be estimated from equations developed elsewhere. The effects of slow flow velocities on the development of hydrological models of the region are discussed, as are the possible causes.
Alberto Bassi, Marvin Höge, Antonietta Mira, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Carlo Albert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4971–4988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, 2024
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The goal is to remove the impact of meteorological drivers in order to uncover the unique landscape fingerprints of a catchment from streamflow data. Our results reveal an optimal two-feature summary for most catchments, with a third feature associated with aridity and intermittent flow that is needed for challenging cases. Baseflow index, aridity, and soil or vegetation attributes strongly correlate with learnt features, indicating their importance for streamflow prediction.
Pablo Fernando Dornes and Rocío Noelia Comas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-338, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-338, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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The Desaguadero-Salado-Chadiluevú-Curacó (DSCC) River is a semiarid river which is severely dammed in its tributaries which collect the snowmelt runoff. This runoff feeds mostly gravitational irrigation systems of very low efficiency. As a result, the DSCC River does not have natural runoff. The proposed Hydrological Regime Index (HRI) is able to discriminate and quantify regime alterations under permanent and non-permanent flow conditions and with low and high impoundment conditions.
Guillaume Thirel, Léonard Santos, Olivier Delaigue, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4837–4860, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, 2024
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We discuss how mathematical transformations impact calibrated hydrological model simulations. We assess how 11 transformations behave over the complete range of streamflows. Extreme transformations lead to models that are specialized for extreme streamflows but show poor performance outside the range of targeted streamflows and are less robust. We show that no a priori assumption about transformations can be taken as warranted.
Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4685–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, 2024
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Large-scale hydrologic simulators are a needed tool to explore complex watershed processes and how they may evolve with a changing climate. However, calibrating them can be difficult because they are costly to run and have many unknown parameters. We implement a state-of-the-art approach to model calibration using neural networks with a set of experiments based on streamflow in the upper Colorado River basin.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Kersti Leppä, Hannu Marttila, Pertti Ala-aho, Giulia Mazzotti, Terhikki Manninen, Mika Korkiakoski, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, and Samuli Launiainen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4643–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, 2024
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We used hydrological models, field measurements, and satellite-based data to study the soil moisture dynamics in a subarctic catchment. The role of groundwater was studied with different ways to model the groundwater dynamics and via comparisons to the observational data. The choice of groundwater model was shown to have a strong impact, and representation of lateral flow was important to capture wet soil conditions. Our results provide insights for ecohydrological studies in boreal regions.
Chen Yang, Zitong Jia, Wenjie Xu, Zhongwang Wei, Xiaolang Zhang, Yiguang Zou, Jeffrey McDonnell, Laura Condon, Yongjiu Dai, and Reed Maxwell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-292, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-292, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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We developed the first high-resolution, integrated surface water-groundwater hydrologic model of the entire continental China using ParFlow. The model shows good performance of streamflow and water table depth when compared to global data products and observations. It is essential for water resources management and decision making in China within a consistent framework in the changing world. It also has significant implications for similar modeling in other places in the world.
Nienke Tempel, Laurène Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4577–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, 2024
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This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities and, thus, on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that, despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Mahmut Tudaji, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2966, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2966, 2024
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We assessed the value of high-resolution data and parameters transferability across temporal scales based on 7 catchments in northern China. We found that higher resolution data does not always improve model performance, questioning the need for such data; Model parameters are transferable across different data resolutions, but not across computational time steps. It is recommended to utilize smaller computational time step when building hydrological models even without high-resolution data.
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4521–4538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, 2024
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This paper developed hybrid semi-distributed hydrological models by employing a process-based model as the backbone and utilizing deep learning to parameterize and replace internal modules. The main contribution is to provide a high-performance tool enriched with explicit hydrological knowledge for hydrological prediction and to improve understanding about the hydrological sensitivities to climate change in large alpine basins.
Wouter J. M. Knoben, Ashwin Raman, Gaby J. Gründemann, Mukesh Kumar, Alain Pietroniro, Chaopeng Shen, Yalan Song, Cyril Thébault, Katie van Werkhoven, Andrew W. Wood, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-279, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Hydrologic models are needed to provide simulations of water availability, floods and droughts. The accuracy of these simulations is often quantified with so-called performance scores. A common thought is that different models are more or less applicable to different landscapes, depending on how the model works. We show that performance scores are not helpful in distinguishing between different models, and thus cannot easily be used to select an appropriate model for a specific place.
Dan Elhanati, Nadine Goeppert, and Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4239–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, 2024
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A continuous time random walk framework was developed to allow modeling of a karst aquifer discharge response to measured rainfall. The application of the numerical model yielded robust fits between modeled and measured discharge values, especially for the distinctive long tails found during recession times. The findings shed light on the interplay of slow and fast flow in the karst system and establish the application of the model for simulating flow and transport in such systems.
Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4187–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, 2024
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Recently, a special type of neural-network architecture became increasingly popular in hydrology literature. However, in most applications, this model was applied as a one-to-one replacement for hydrology models without adapting or rethinking the experimental setup. In this opinion paper, we show how this is almost always a bad decision and how using these kinds of models requires the use of large-sample hydrology data sets.
Franziska Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4219–4237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, 2024
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We show that the differences between the forcing data included in three CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB) and the forcing data included for the same catchments in the Caravan dataset affect model calibration considerably. The model performance dropped when the data from the Caravan dataset were used instead of the original data. Most of the model performance drop could be attributed to the differences in precipitation data. However, differences were largest for the potential evapotranspiration data.
Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4059–4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, 2024
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Gao et al. (2023) question the importance of soil in hydrology, sparking debate. We acknowledge some valid points but critique their broad, unsubstantiated views on soil's role. Our response highlights three key areas: (1) the false divide between ecosystem-centric and soil-centric approaches, (2) the vital yet varied impact of soil properties, and (3) the call for a scale-aware framework. We aim to unify these perspectives, enhancing hydrology's comprehensive understanding.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
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Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Zehua Chang, Hongkai Gao, Leilei Yong, Kang Wang, Rensheng Chen, Chuntan Han, Otgonbayar Demberel, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Shugui Hou, and Zheng Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3897–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, 2024
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An integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed that considers glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrology. We utilized it to simulate future changes in cryosphere and hydrology in the Hulu catchment. Our projections showed the two glaciers will melt completely around 2050, snow cover will reduce, and permafrost will degrade. For hydrology, runoff will decrease after the glacier has melted, and permafrost degradation will increase baseflow.
Henry M. Zimba, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Kawawa E. Banda, Petra Hulsman, Nick van de Giesen, Imasiku A. Nyambe, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3633–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, 2024
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The fall and flushing of new leaves in the miombo woodlands co-occur in the dry season before the commencement of seasonal rainfall. The miombo species are also said to have access to soil moisture in deep soils, including groundwater in the dry season. Satellite-based evaporation estimates, temporal trends, and magnitudes differ the most in the dry season, most likely due to inadequate understanding and representation of the highlighted miombo species attributes in simulations.
Jean-Luc Martel, François Brissette, Richard Arsenault, Richard Turcotte, Mariana Castañeda-Gonzalez, William Armstrong, Edouard Mailhot, Jasmine Pelletier-Dumont, Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse, and Louis-Philippe Caron
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2133, 2024
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This study compares Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks with traditional hydrological models to predict future streamflow under climate change. Using data from 148 catchments, it finds that LSTM models, which learn from extensive data sequences, perform differently and often better than traditional hydrolgical models. The continental LSTM model, which includes data from diverse climate zones, is particularly effective for understanding climate impacts on water resources.
Louise Akemi Kuana, Arlan Scortegagna Almeida, Emílio Graciliano Ferreira Mercuri, and Steffen Manfred Noe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3367–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, 2024
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The authors compared regionalization methods for river flow prediction in 126 catchments from the south of Brazil, a region with humid subtropical and hot temperate climate. The regionalization method based on physiographic–climatic similarity had the best performance for predicting daily and Q95 reference flow. We showed that basins without flow monitoring can have a good approximation of streamflow using machine learning and physiographic–climatic information as inputs.
Huy Dang and Yadu Pokhrel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3347–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, 2024
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By examining basin-wide simulations of a river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we present evidence that climate variation was a key driver of hydrologic variabilities in the Mekong River basin (MRB) over the long term; however, dams have largely altered the seasonality of the Mekong’s flow regime and annual flooding patterns in major downstream areas in recent years. These findings could help us rethink the planning of future dams and water resource management in the MRB.
Yongshin Lee, Francesca Pianosi, Andres Peñuela, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3261–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, 2024
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Following recent advancements in weather prediction technology, we explored how seasonal weather forecasts (1 or more months ahead) could benefit practical water management in South Korea. Our findings highlight that using seasonal weather forecasts for predicting flow patterns 1 to 3 months ahead is effective, especially during dry years. This suggest that seasonal weather forecasts can be helpful in improving the management of water resources.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3161–3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, 2024
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Flooding worsens due to climate change, with river dynamics being a key in local flood control. Predicting post-storm geomorphic changes is challenging. Using self-organizing maps and machine learning, this study forecasts post-storm alterations in stage–discharge relationships across 3101 US stream gages. The provided framework can aid in updating hazard assessments by identifying rivers prone to change, integrating channel adjustments into flood hazard assessment.
Yalan Song, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark, Dapeng Feng, Kathryn Lawson, Kamlesh Sawadekar, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3051–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, 2024
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Differentiable models (DMs) integrate neural networks and physical equations for accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge discovery. We developed an adjoint-based DM for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for hydrological modeling, reducing distorted fluxes and physical parameters from errors in models that use explicit and operation-splitting schemes. With a better numerical scheme and improved structure, the adjoint-based DM matches or surpasses long short-term memory (LSTM) performance.
Cited articles
Alvarez-Garreton, C.: CAMELS-CL explorer, CAMELS [data set], https://camels.cr2.cl (last access: 20 September 2023), 2018.
Alvarez-Garreton, C., Mendoza, P. A., Pablo Boisier, J., Addor, N., Galleguillos, M., Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., Lara, A., Puelma, C., Cortes, G., Garreaud, R., McPhee, J., and Ayala, A.: The CAMELS-CL dataset: Catchment attributes and meteorology for large sample studies-Chile dataset, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5817–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5817-2018, 2018.
Alvarez-Garreton, C., Pablo Boisier, J., Garreaud, R., Seibert, J., and Vis, M.: Progressive water deficits during multiyear droughts in basins with long hydrological memory in Chile, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-429-2021, 2021.
Alvarez-Garreton, C., Boisier, J.P., Blanco, G., Billi, M., Nicolas-Artero, C., Maillet, A., Aldunce, P., Urrutia-Jalabert, R., Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., Guevara, G., Galleguillos, M., Muñoz, A., Christie, D., Marinao, R., and Garreaud, R.: Seguridad Hídrica en Chile: Caracterización y Perspectivas de Futuro, ANID/FONDAP/1522A0001, Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia CR2, 72 pp., https://www.cr2.cl/seguridadhidrica/ (last access: 1 April 2024), 2023.
Alvarez-Garreton, C., Boisier, J. P., Garreaud, R., González, J., Rondanelli, R., Gayó, E., and Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.: HESS Opinions: The unsustainable use of groundwater conceals a “Day Zero”, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1605–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1605-2024, 2024.
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Short summary
In this study, we assess the effects of climate and water use on streamflow reductions and drought intensification during the last 3 decades in central Chile. We address this by contrasting streamflow observations with near-natural streamflow simulations. We conclude that while the lack of precipitation dominates streamflow reductions in the megadrought, water uses have not diminished during this time, causing a worsening of the hydrological drought conditions and maladaptation conditions.
In this study, we assess the effects of climate and water use on streamflow reductions and...
