Articles | Volume 27, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-861-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-861-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Feb 2023
Research article |
| 23 Feb 2023
| 23 Feb 2023
Daytime-only mean data enhance understanding of land–atmosphere coupling
Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, 08540 New Jersey, USA
Kirsten L. Findell
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, 08540 New Jersey, USA
Paul Dirmeyer
Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, 22030 Virginia, USA
Elena Shevliakova
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, 08540 New Jersey, USA
Sergey Malyshev
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, 08540 New Jersey, USA
Khaled Ghannam
Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, 08540 New Jersey, USA
Nina Raoult
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, Essonne, France
Zhihong Tan
Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, 08540 New Jersey, USA
Related authors
Pedro Felipe Arboleda-Obando, Agnès Ducharne, Zun Yin, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2141–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show a new irrigation scheme included in the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The new irrigation scheme restrains irrigation due to water shortage, includes water adduction, and represents environmental limits and facilities to access water, due to representing infrastructure in a simple way. Our results show that the new irrigation scheme helps simulate acceptable land surface conditions and fluxes in irrigated areas, even if there are difficulties due to shortcomings and limited information.
Kirsten L. Findell, Zun Yin, Eunkyo Seo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Nathan P. Arnold, Nathaniel Chaney, Megan D. Fowler, Meng Huang, David M. Lawrence, Po-Lun Ma, and Joseph A. Santanello Jr.
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1869–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We outline a request for sub-daily data to accurately capture the process-level connections between land states, surface fluxes, and the boundary layer response. This high-frequency model output will allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant timescales, enable demonstration of inter-model spread in land–atmosphere coupling processes, and aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.
Zun Yin, Catherine Ottlé, Philippe Ciais, Feng Zhou, Xuhui Wang, Polcher Jan, Patrice Dumas, Shushi Peng, Laurent Li, Xudong Zhou, Yan Bo, Yi Xi, and Shilong Piao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1133–1150, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1133-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We improved the irrigation module in a land surface model ORCHIDEE and developed a dam operation model with the aim to investigate how irrigation and dams affect the streamflow fluctuations of the Yellow River. Results show that irrigation mainly reduces the annual river flow. The dam operation, however, mainly affects streamflow variation. By considering two generic operation rules, flood control and base flow guarantee, our dam model can sustainably improve the simulation accuracy.
Zun Yin, Catherine Ottlé, Philippe Ciais, Matthieu Guimberteau, Xuhui Wang, Dan Zhu, Fabienne Maignan, Shushi Peng, Shilong Piao, Jan Polcher, Feng Zhou, Hyungjun Kim, and other China-Trend-Stream project members
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5463–5484, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5463-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations in China were performed in ORCHIDEE driven by different forcing datasets: GSWP3, PGF, CRU-NCEP, and WFDEI. Simulated soil moisture was compared to several datasets to evaluate the ability of ORCHIDEE in reproducing soil moisture dynamics. Results showed that ORCHIDEE soil moisture coincided well with other datasets in wet areas and in non-irrigated areas. It suggested that the ORCHIDEE-MICT was suitable for further hydrological studies in China.
Zun Yin, Stefan C. Dekker, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Biogeosciences, 13, 3343–3357, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3343-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3343-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Bimodality is found in aboveground biomass and mean annual shortwave radiation in West Africa, which is a strong evidence of alternative stable states. The condition with low biomass and low radiation is demonstrated under which ecosystem state can shift between savanna and forest states. Moreover, climatic indicators have different prediction confidences to different land cover types. A new method is proposed to predict potential land cover change with a combination of climatic indicators.
Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, Nina Raoult, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Conesa
The Cryosphere, 18, 5067–5099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The evolution of the Greenland ice sheet is highly dependent on surface melting and therefore on the processes operating at the snow–atmosphere interface and within the snow cover. Here we present new developments to apply a snow model to the Greenland ice sheet. The performance of this model is analysed in terms of its ability to simulate ablation processes. Our analysis shows that the model performs well when compared with the MAR regional polar atmospheric model.
Enrico Zorzetto, Sergey Malyshev, Paul Ginoux, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7219–7244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a new snow scheme developed for use in global climate models, which simulates the interactions of snowpack with vegetation, atmosphere, and soil. We test the new snow model over a set of sites where in situ observations are available. We find that when compared to a simpler snow model, this model improves predictions of seasonal snow and of soil temperature under the snowpack, important variables for simulating both the hydrological cycle and the global climate system.
Minki Hong, Nathaniel Chaney, Sergey Malyshev, Enrico Zorzetto, Anthony Preucil, and Elena Shevliakova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2005, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to understand the significance of groundwater in resolving water-energy budgets in the context of Earth system processes. LM4-SHARC describes the hillslope groundwater using its emergent properties derived from streamflow observations and yields noticeable improvements in soil moisture/temperature and groundwater discharge predictions. The implication of the groundwater-mediated hydrologic interactions between hillslope and stream needs further exploration in the ESM community.
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2460, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored the impact of anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) on climate dynamics, focusing on biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects using data from the CMIP6-LUMIP project. We found that LUC-induced carbon emissions contribute to a BGC warming of 0.20 °C, with BGC effects dominating globally over BGP effects, which show regional variability. Our findings highlight discrepancies in model simulations and emphasise the need for improved representations of LUC processes.
Nina Raoult, Simon Beylat, James M. Salter, Frédéric Hourdin, Vladislav Bastrikov, Catherine Ottlé, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5779–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use computer models to predict how the land surface will respond to climate change. However, these complex models do not always simulate what we observe in real life, limiting their effectiveness. To improve their accuracy, we use sophisticated statistical and computational techniques. We test a technique called history matching against more common approaches. This method adapts well to these models, helping us better understand how they work and therefore how to make them more realistic.
Minjin Lee, Charles A. Stock, John P. Dunne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5191–5224, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling global freshwater solid and nutrient loads, in both magnitude and form, is imperative for understanding emerging eutrophication problems. Such efforts, however, have been challenged by the difficulty of balancing details of freshwater biogeochemical processes with limited knowledge, input, and validation datasets. Here we develop a global freshwater model that resolves intertwined algae, solid, and nutrient dynamics and provide performance assessment against measurement-based estimates.
Eunkyo Seo and Paul A. Dirmeyer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1066, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the impact of using a multi-layer snow scheme in seasonal forecasts. Compared to single-layer schemes, multi-layer schemes better represent snow's insulating effect, improving forecast accuracy for temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation. These enhancements lead to more realistic simulations of land-atmosphere interactions, mitigating biases and improving model performance over mid- and high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere.
Enrico Zorzetto, Paul Ginoux, Sergey Malyshev, and Elena Shevliakova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1258, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Light-absorbing particles (LAPs) deposition on snow leads to a darkening of the snow surface and can thus accelerate snow melt. Understanding to what extent different types of LAPs contribute to snow melt is important both to predict changes in water availability and for improving global climate model predictions. Here we extend a recently developed snow model to account for the deposition of LAPs in the snowpack and evaluate the effect of snow darkening on accelerating snow melt.
Gaoyun Wang, Rong Fu, Yizhou Zhuang, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Joseph A. Santanello, Guiling Wang, Kun Yang, and Kaighin McColl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3857–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the influence of lower-tropospheric humidity on land–atmosphere coupling (LAC) during warm seasons in the US Southern Great Plains. Using radiosonde data and a buoyancy model, we find that elevated LT humidity is crucial for generating afternoon precipitation events under dry soil conditions not accounted for by conventional LAC indices. This underscores the importance of considering LT humidity in understanding LAC over dry soil during droughts in the SGP.
Luis-Enrique Olivera-Guerra, Catherine Ottlé, Nina Raoult, and Philippe Peylin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-546, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assimilate the recent land surface temperature (LST) product from ESA-CCI to optimize parameters of the ORCHIDEE model. We test different strategies of assimilation to evaluate the best strategy over various in situ stations across Europe. We provide some advice on how to assimilate this recent LST product to better simulate LST and surface energy fluxes from ORCHIDEE. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this optimization, which is essential to better simulate future projections.
Pedro Felipe Arboleda-Obando, Agnès Ducharne, Zun Yin, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2141–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show a new irrigation scheme included in the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The new irrigation scheme restrains irrigation due to water shortage, includes water adduction, and represents environmental limits and facilities to access water, due to representing infrastructure in a simple way. Our results show that the new irrigation scheme helps simulate acceptable land surface conditions and fluxes in irrigated areas, even if there are difficulties due to shortcomings and limited information.
Nina Raoult, Louis-Axel Edouard-Rambaut, Nicolas Vuichard, Vladislav Bastrikov, Anne Sofie Lansø, Bertrand Guenet, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 21, 1017–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Observations are used to reduce uncertainty in land surface models (LSMs) by optimising poorly constraining parameters. However, optimising against current conditions does not necessarily ensure that the parameters treated as invariant will be robust in a changing climate. Manipulation experiments offer us a unique chance to optimise our models under different (here atmospheric CO2) conditions. By using these data in optimisations, we gain confidence in the future projections of LSMs.
Kirsten L. Findell, Zun Yin, Eunkyo Seo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Nathan P. Arnold, Nathaniel Chaney, Megan D. Fowler, Meng Huang, David M. Lawrence, Po-Lun Ma, and Joseph A. Santanello Jr.
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1869–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We outline a request for sub-daily data to accurately capture the process-level connections between land states, surface fluxes, and the boundary layer response. This high-frequency model output will allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant timescales, enable demonstration of inter-model spread in land–atmosphere coupling processes, and aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations. We successfully identified problems of global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues that should be solved in the latest generation of models, land use change CO2 emissions.
Gab Abramowitz, Anna Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Jon Cranko Page, Mathew Lipson, Martin De Kauwe, Sam Green, Claire Brenner, Jonathan Frame, Grey Nearing, Martyn Clark, Martin Best, Peter Anthoni, Gabriele Arduini, Souhail Boussetta, Silvia Caldararu, Kyeungwoo Cho, Matthias Cuntz, David Fairbairn, Craig Ferguson, Hyungjun Kim, Yeonjoo Kim, Jürgen Knauer, David Lawrence, Xiangzhong Luo, Sergey Malyshev, Tomoko Nitta, Jerome Ogee, Keith Oleson, Catherine Ottlé, Phillipe Peylin, Patricia de Rosnay, Heather Rumbold, Bob Su, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony Walker, Xiaoni Wang-Faivre, Yunfei Wang, and Yijian Zeng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3084, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates land models – computer based models that simulate ecosystem dynamics, the land carbon, water and energy cycles and the role of land in the climate system. It uses machine learning / AI approaches to show that despite the complexity of land models, they do not perform nearly as well as they could, given the amount of information they are provided with about the prediction problem.
Nina Raoult, Tim Jupp, Ben Booth, and Peter Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 723–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-723-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-723-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are used to predict the impact of climate change. However, poorly constrained parameters used in the physics of the models mean that we simulate a large spread of possible future outcomes. We can use real-world observations to reduce the uncertainty of parameter values, but we do not have observations to reduce the spread of possible future outcomes directly. We present a method for translating the reduction in parameter uncertainty into a reduction in possible model projections.
Nina Raoult, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, and Vladislav Bastrikov
The Cryosphere, 17, 2705–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2705-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2705-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland ice sheet melting due to global warming could significantly impact global sea-level rise. The ice sheet's albedo, i.e. how reflective the surface is, affects the melting speed. The ORCHIDEE computer model is used to simulate albedo and snowmelt to make predictions. However, the albedo in ORCHIDEE is lower than that observed using satellites. To correct this, we change model parameters (e.g. the rate of snow decay) to reduce the difference between simulated and observed values.
Enrico Zorzetto, Sergey Malyshev, Nathaniel Chaney, David Paynter, Raymond Menzel, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1937–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1937-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we develop a methodology to model the spatial distribution of solar radiation received by land over mountainous terrain. The approach is designed to be used in Earth system models, where coarse grid cells hinder the description of fine-scale land–atmosphere interactions. We adopt a clustering algorithm to partition the land domain into a set of homogeneous sub-grid
tiles, and for each tile we evaluate solar radiation received by land based on terrain properties.
Eunkyo Seo and Paul A. Dirmeyer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5411–5429, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5411-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the climatology of the observed land–atmosphere interactions on a subdaily timescale during the warm season from flux site observations. Multivariate metrics are employed to examine the land, atmosphere, and combined couplings, and a mixing diagram is adopted to understand the coevolution of the moist and thermal energy budget within the atmospheric mixed layer. The diurnal cycles of both mixing diagrams and hourly land–atmosphere couplings exhibit hysteresis.
Camille Abadie, Fabienne Maignan, Marine Remaud, Jérôme Ogée, J. Elliott Campbell, Mary E. Whelan, Florian Kitz, Felix M. Spielmann, Georg Wohlfahrt, Richard Wehr, Wu Sun, Nina Raoult, Ulli Seibt, Didier Hauglustaine, Sinikka T. Lennartz, Sauveur Belviso, David Montagne, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 19, 2427–2463, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2427-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2427-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A better constraint of the components of the carbonyl sulfide (COS) global budget is needed to exploit its potential as a proxy of gross primary productivity. In this study, we compare two representations of oxic soil COS fluxes, and we develop an approach to represent anoxic soil COS fluxes in a land surface model. We show the importance of atmospheric COS concentration variations on oxic soil COS fluxes and provide new estimates for oxic and anoxic soil contributions to the COS global budget.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Sergey Malyshev, Isabel Martínez Cano, Stephen W. Pacala, Elena Shevliakova, Thomas A. Bytnerowicz, and Duncan N. L. Menge
Biogeosciences, 18, 4143–4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4143-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4143-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Representing biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is an important challenge for land models. We present a novel representation of BNF and updated nitrogen cycling in a land model. It includes a representation of asymbiotic BNF by soil microbes and the competitive dynamics between nitrogen-fixing and non-fixing plants. It improves estimations of major carbon and nitrogen pools and fluxes and their temporal dynamics in comparison to previous representations of BNF in land models.
Fabienne Maignan, Camille Abadie, Marine Remaud, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Róisín Commane, Richard Wehr, J. Elliott Campbell, Sauveur Belviso, Stephen A. Montzka, Nina Raoult, Ulli Seibt, Yoichi P. Shiga, Nicolas Vuichard, Mary E. Whelan, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 18, 2917–2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The assimilation of carbonyl sulfide (COS) by continental vegetation has been proposed as a proxy for gross primary production (GPP). Using a land surface and a transport model, we compare a mechanistic representation of the plant COS uptake (Berry et al., 2013) to the classical leaf relative uptake (LRU) approach linking GPP and vegetation COS fluxes. We show that at high temporal resolutions a mechanistic approach is mandatory, but at large scales the LRU approach compares similarly.
Zun Yin, Catherine Ottlé, Philippe Ciais, Feng Zhou, Xuhui Wang, Polcher Jan, Patrice Dumas, Shushi Peng, Laurent Li, Xudong Zhou, Yan Bo, Yi Xi, and Shilong Piao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1133–1150, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1133-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We improved the irrigation module in a land surface model ORCHIDEE and developed a dam operation model with the aim to investigate how irrigation and dams affect the streamflow fluctuations of the Yellow River. Results show that irrigation mainly reduces the annual river flow. The dam operation, however, mainly affects streamflow variation. By considering two generic operation rules, flood control and base flow guarantee, our dam model can sustainably improve the simulation accuracy.
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To estimate the effects of human land use activities on the carbon–climate system, a new set of global gridded land use forcing datasets was developed to link historical land use data to eight future scenarios in a standard format required by climate models. This new generation of land use harmonization (LUH2) includes updated inputs, higher spatial resolution, more detailed land use transitions, and the addition of important agricultural management layers; it will be used for CMIP6 simulations.
Bing Pu, Paul Ginoux, Huan Guo, N. Christina Hsu, John Kimball, Beatrice Marticorena, Sergey Malyshev, Vaishali Naik, Norman T. O'Neill, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Juliette Paireau, Joseph M. Prospero, Elena Shevliakova, and Ming Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 55–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-55-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-55-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Dust emission initiates when surface wind velocities exceed a threshold depending on soil and surface characteristics and varying spatially and temporally. Climate models widely use wind erosion thresholds. The climatological monthly global distribution of the wind erosion threshold, Vthreshold, is retrieved using satellite and reanalysis products and improves the simulation of dust frequency, magnitude, and the seasonal cycle in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory land–atmosphere model.
Fabien Paulot, Sergey Malyshev, Tran Nguyen, John D. Crounse, Elena Shevliakova, and Larry W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17963–17978, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17963-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17963-2018, 2018
Zun Yin, Catherine Ottlé, Philippe Ciais, Matthieu Guimberteau, Xuhui Wang, Dan Zhu, Fabienne Maignan, Shushi Peng, Shilong Piao, Jan Polcher, Feng Zhou, Hyungjun Kim, and other China-Trend-Stream project members
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5463–5484, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5463-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations in China were performed in ORCHIDEE driven by different forcing datasets: GSWP3, PGF, CRU-NCEP, and WFDEI. Simulated soil moisture was compared to several datasets to evaluate the ability of ORCHIDEE in reproducing soil moisture dynamics. Results showed that ORCHIDEE soil moisture coincided well with other datasets in wet areas and in non-irrigated areas. It suggested that the ORCHIDEE-MICT was suitable for further hydrological studies in China.
Nathaniel W. Chaney, Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Elena Shevliakova, Sergey Malyshev, Paul C. D. Milly, Paul P. G. Gauthier, and Benjamin N. Sulman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3311-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3311-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The petabytes of existing global environmental data provide an invaluable asset to improve the characterization of land heterogeneity in Earth system models. This study introduces a clustering algorithm that summarizes a domain's heterogeneity through spatially interconnected clusters. A series of land model simulations in central California using this approach illustrate the critical role that multi-scale heterogeneity can have on the macroscale water, energy, and carbon cycles.
Sam S. Rabin, Daniel S. Ward, Sergey L. Malyshev, Brian I. Magi, Elena Shevliakova, and Stephen W. Pacala
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 815–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-815-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-815-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new fire model that for the first time simulates how fire is used on cropland and pasture in the modern day, as imposed using a recently developed dataset. A non-agricultural fire module is fit algorithmically against non-agricultural burned area. Fitting improves performance and the general global pattern of fire is represented, but some gaps remain. The novel separation of agricultural burning from other fire may necessitate new design thinking in the future.
Liang Chen, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Zhichang Guo, and Natalie M. Schultz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 111–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-111-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-111-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the performance of two commonly used land surface models in simulating deforestation-induced change in surface fluxes using paired FLUXNET observations. Our results highlight the shortcomings in the energy partitioning between latent and sensible heat flux over different land cover types, suggesting the need to improve the representation of surface heat flux processes in land models to increase confidence in LULCC-climate simulations.
Yoshihide Wada, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Ad de Roo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, James S. Famiglietti, Naota Hanasaki, Megan Konar, Junguo Liu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Taikan Oki, Yadu Pokhrel, Murugesu Sivapalan, Tara J. Troy, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Tim van Emmerik, Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Charles J. Vörösmarty, Niko Wanders, and Howard Wheater
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4169–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Rapidly increasing population and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes on an unprecedented scale. Awareness of potential water scarcity led to first global water resource assessments; however, few hydrological models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities. Our contribution highlights the importance of human activities transforming the Earth's water cycle, and how hydrological models can include such influences in an integrated manner.
Randal D. Koster, Alan K. Betts, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Marc Bierkens, Katrina E. Bennett, Stephen J. Déry, Jason P. Evans, Rong Fu, Felipe Hernandez, L. Ruby Leung, Xu Liang, Muhammad Masood, Hubert Savenije, Guiling Wang, and Xing Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3777–3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3777-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3777-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale hydrological variability can affect society in profound ways; floods and droughts, for example, often cause major damage and hardship. A recent gathering of hydrologists at a symposium to honor the career of Professor Eric Wood motivates the present survey of recent research on this variability. The surveyed literature and the illustrative examples provided in the paper show that research into hydrological variability continues to be strong, vibrant, and multifaceted.
David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate V. Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Chris D. Jones, Peter J. Lawrence, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The goal of LUMIP is to take the next steps in land-use change science, and enable, coordinate, and ultimately address the most important land-use science questions in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date.
Nina M. Raoult, Tim E. Jupp, Peter M. Cox, and Catherine M. Luke
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2833–2852, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2833-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2833-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a set of "optimal" parameter values used to describe the influence of vegetation in a numerical climate model, and the software suite that we developed to find it. Observational data from ~ 100 locations were used, and the optimal parameters improve the fit in 90 % of the locations. The new parameter values will allow the climate model to give better predictions, and our software should prove useful in future calibrations.
Zun Yin, Stefan C. Dekker, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Biogeosciences, 13, 3343–3357, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3343-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3343-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Bimodality is found in aboveground biomass and mean annual shortwave radiation in West Africa, which is a strong evidence of alternative stable states. The condition with low biomass and low radiation is demonstrated under which ecosystem state can shift between savanna and forest states. Moreover, climatic indicators have different prediction confidences to different land cover types. A new method is proposed to predict potential land cover change with a combination of climatic indicators.
Subhadeep Halder, Subodh K. Saha, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Thomas N. Chase, and Bhupendra Nath Goswami
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1765-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1765-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Regional climate model (RegCM4) simulations demonstrate that part of the observed decrease in moderate rainfall events during the summer monsoon season over central India from 1951 to 2005 is attributed to anthropogenically induced land-use land-cover change (LULCC). LULCC also partly explains the observed warming trend in the daily mean and maximum temperatures over India. This study demonstrates the importance of LULCC in the context of regional climate change over India.
S. S. Rabin, B. I. Magi, E. Shevliakova, and S. W. Pacala
Biogeosciences, 12, 6591–6604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6591-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6591-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
People worldwide use fire to manage agriculture, but often also suppress fire in the landscape surrounding their fields. Here, we estimate the net result of these effects of cropland and pasture on fire at a regional, monthly level. Pasture is shown, for the first time, to contribute strongly to global patterns of burning. Our results could be used to improve representations of burning in global vegetation and climate models, improving our understanding of how people affect the Earth system.
A. M. Badger and P. A. Dirmeyer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4547–4557, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4547-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4547-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study expands upon previous Amazon deforestation modeling studies by using realistic heterogeneous crop cover as replacement vegetation and diagnoses the changes in land-atmosphere coupling due to land use change. With the use of an interactive crop model, the impact that irrigation has on land-atmosphere coupling when using crops as a replacement vegetation is analyzed. This study also provides documentation on the development of tropical crops for CLM4.5.
E. S. Weng, S. Malyshev, J. W. Lichstein, C. E. Farrior, R. Dybzinski, T. Zhang, E. Shevliakova, and S. W. Pacala
Biogeosciences, 12, 2655–2694, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2655-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2655-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present a model, LM3-PPA, which simulates vegetation dynamics and biogeochemical processes by explicitly scaling from individual plants to ecosystems using the perfect plasticity approximation. It includes height-structured competition for light- and root-allocation-dependent competition for belowground resources. Because of the tractability of the PPA, the coupled LM3-PPA model is able to retain computational tractability, as well as close linkages to mathematically tractable special cases.
B. R. Lintner, P. Gentine, K. L. Findell, and G. D. Salvucci
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2119–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2119-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2119-2015, 2015
P. A. Dirmeyer, G. Fang, Z. Wang, P. Yadav, and A. Milton
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5317–5329, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5317-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change simulations project drought to increase even under moderate warming scenarios; both droughts and floods increase sharply with severe warming. Over 20% of the globe is projected to experience reduced rainfall but greater year-to-year variability. The vulnerability of growing regions for many types of crops are assessed based on soil moisture, and rivers using runoff projections. Increased water cycle variability is found to be a threat to agriculture and river systems as well.
M. Lee, S. Malyshev, E. Shevliakova, P. C. D. Milly, and P. R. Jaffé
Biogeosciences, 11, 5809–5826, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5809-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5809-2014, 2014
B. P. Guillod, B. Orlowsky, D. Miralles, A. J. Teuling, P. D. Blanken, N. Buchmann, P. Ciais, M. Ek, K. L. Findell, P. Gentine, B. R. Lintner, R. L. Scott, B. Van den Hurk, and S. I. Seneviratne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8343–8367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8343-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8343-2014, 2014
S. J. Sutanto, B. van den Hurk, P. A. Dirmeyer, S. I. Seneviratne, T. Röckmann, K. E. Trenberth, E. M. Blyth, J. Wenninger, and G. Hoffmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2815–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2815-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2815-2014, 2014
Z. M. Subin, P. C. D. Milly, B. N. Sulman, S. Malyshev, and E. Shevliakova
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-8443-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-8443-2014, 2014
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a framework for including the effects of fine-scale hydrology on biogeochemistry in Earth-system models (ESMs). We simulate a representative hillslope in each ESM grid cell. While including the hillslope does not change the average hydrology, it causes greater vegetation and soil carbon to accumulate in lowlands. This is important for understanding how soil carbon might be affected by climate change, particularly in wetlands.
K. E. O. Todd-Brown, J. T. Randerson, F. Hopkins, V. Arora, T. Hajima, C. Jones, E. Shevliakova, J. Tjiputra, E. Volodin, T. Wu, Q. Zhang, and S. D. Allison
Biogeosciences, 11, 2341–2356, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014, 2014
B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. G. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3707–3720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
On the visual detection of non-natural records in streamflow time series: challenges and impacts
Historical rainfall data in northern Italy predict larger meteorological drought hazard than climate projections
Quantifying the uncertainty of precipitation forecasting using probabilistic deep learning
Unraveling the contribution of potential evaporation formulation to uncertainty under climate change
Exploring hydrologic post-processing of ensemble streamflow forecasts based on affine kernel dressing and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II
Choosing between post-processing precipitation forecasts or chaining several uncertainty quantification tools in hydrological forecasting systems
Performance of the Global Forecast System's medium-range precipitation forecasts in the Niger river basin using multiple satellite-based products
Uncertainties and their interaction in flood hazard assessment with climate change
Bias-correcting input variables enhances forecasting of reference crop evapotranspiration
Uncertainty of gridded precipitation and temperature reference datasets in climate change impact studies
At which timescale does the complementary principle perform best in evaporation estimation?
Uncertainty in nonstationary frequency analysis of South Korea's daily rainfall peak over threshold excesses associated with covariates
Assessment of extreme flows and uncertainty under climate change: disentangling the uncertainty contribution of representative concentration pathways, global climate models and internal climate variability
The accuracy of weather radar in heavy rain: a comparative study for Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland and Sweden
A new uncertainty estimation approach with multiple datasets and implementation for various precipitation products
A crash-testing framework for predictive uncertainty assessment when forecasting high flows in an extrapolation context
Required sampling density of ground-based soil moisture and brightness temperature observations for calibration and validation of L-band satellite observations based on a virtual reality
Response of global evaporation to major climate modes in historical and future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations
Cross-validating precipitation datasets in the Indus River basin
Selection of multi-model ensemble of general circulation models for the simulation of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature based on spatial assessment metrics
Assessment of spatial uncertainty of heavy rainfall at catchment scale using a dense gauge network
Influence of three phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on daily precipitation regimes in China
Dual-polarized quantitative precipitation estimation as a function of range
Reconstruction of droughts in India using multiple land-surface models (1951–2015)
Relative effects of statistical preprocessing and postprocessing on a regional hydrological ensemble prediction system
Exploratory studies into seasonal flow forecasting potential for large lakes
Evaluation of multiple forcing data sets for precipitation and shortwave radiation over major land areas of China
Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate
Providing a non-deterministic representation of spatial variability of precipitation in the Everest region
Inter-comparison of daily precipitation products for large-scale hydro-climatic applications over Canada
Sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to changes in climate variables for different Australian climatic zones
Characteristics of rainfall events in regional climate model simulations for the Czech Republic
The rainfall erosivity factor in the Czech Republic and its uncertainty
Hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties in transient low-flow projections
Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game
Assessment of small-scale variability of rainfall and multi-satellite precipitation estimates using measurements from a dense rain gauge network in Southeast India
Comparing CFSR and conventional weather data for discharge and soil loss modelling with SWAT in small catchments in the Ethiopian Highlands
Uncertainties in calculating precipitation climatology in East Asia
Measurement and interpolation uncertainties in rainfall maps from cellular communication networks
Characterization of precipitation product errors across the United States using multiplicative triple collocation
Exploring the impact of forcing error characteristics on physically based snow simulations within a global sensitivity analysis framework
Evaluation of land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration over a 12-year crop succession: impact of soil hydraulic and vegetation properties
Multi-objective parameter optimization of common land model using adaptive surrogate modeling
Testing gridded land precipitation data and precipitation and runoff reanalyses (1982–2010) between 45° S and 45° N with normalised difference vegetation index data
Evaluation of high-resolution precipitation analyses using a dense station network
Prediction of extreme floods based on CMIP5 climate models: a case study in the Beijiang River basin, South China
Estimating the water needed to end the drought or reduce the drought severity in the Carpathian region
Alternative configurations of quantile regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the upper Severn River: a comparison
Comparison of drought indicators derived from multiple data sets over Africa
The potential of radar-based ensemble forecasts for flash-flood early warning in the southern Swiss Alps
Laurent Strohmenger, Eric Sauquet, Claire Bernard, Jérémie Bonneau, Flora Branger, Amélie Bresson, Pierre Brigode, Rémy Buzier, Olivier Delaigue, Alexandre Devers, Guillaume Evin, Maïté Fournier, Shu-Chen Hsu, Sandra Lanini, Alban de Lavenne, Thibault Lemaitre-Basset, Claire Magand, Guilherme Mendoza Guimarães, Max Mentha, Simon Munier, Charles Perrin, Tristan Podechard, Léo Rouchy, Malak Sadki, Myriam Soutif-Bellenger, François Tilmant, Yves Tramblay, Anne-Lise Véron, Jean-Philippe Vidal, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the results of a large visual inspection campaign of 674 streamflow time series in France. The objective was to detect non-natural records resulting from instrument failure or anthropogenic influences, such as hydroelectric power generation or reservoir management. We conclude that the identification of flaws in flow time series is highly dependent on the objectives and skills of individual evaluators, and we raise the need for better practices for data cleaning.
Rui Guo and Alberto Montanari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2847–2863, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The present study refers to the region of Bologna, where the availability of a 209-year-long daily rainfall series allows us to make a unique assessment of global climate models' reliability and their predicted changes in rainfall and multiyear droughts. Our results suggest carefully considering the impact of uncertainty when designing climate change adaptation policies for droughts. Rigorous use and comprehensive interpretation of the available information are needed to avoid mismanagement.
Lei Xu, Nengcheng Chen, Chao Yang, Hongchu Yu, and Zeqiang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2923–2938, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2923-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2923-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation forecasting has potential uncertainty due to data and model uncertainties. Here, an integrated predictive uncertainty modeling framework is proposed by jointly considering data and model uncertainties through an uncertainty propagation theorem. The results indicate an effective predictive uncertainty estimation for precipitation forecasting, indicating the great potential for uncertainty quantification of numerous predictive applications.
Thibault Lemaitre-Basset, Ludovic Oudin, Guillaume Thirel, and Lila Collet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2147–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2147-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2147-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing temperature will impact evaporation and water resource management. Hydrological models are fed with an estimation of the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, called potential evapotranspiration (PE). The objectives of this study were (1) to compute the future PE anomaly over France and (2) to determine the impact of the choice of the method to estimate PE. Our results show that all methods present similar future trends. No method really stands out from the others.
Jing Xu, François Anctil, and Marie-Amélie Boucher
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1001–1017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The performance of the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) is compared with a conventional post-processing method of affine kernel dressing. NSGA-II showed its superiority in improving the forecast skill and communicating trade-offs with end-users. It allows the enhancement of the forecast quality since it allows for setting multiple specific objectives from scratch. This flexibility should be considered as a reason to implement hydrologic ensemble prediction systems (H-EPSs).
Emixi Sthefany Valdez, François Anctil, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 197–220, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-197-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated how a precipitation post-processor interacts with other tools for uncertainty quantification in a hydrometeorological forecasting chain. Four systems were implemented to generate 7 d ensemble streamflow forecasts, which vary from partial to total uncertainty estimation. Overall analysis showed that post-processing and initial condition estimation ensure the most skill improvements, in some cases even better than a system that considers all sources of uncertainty.
Haowen Yue, Mekonnen Gebremichael, and Vahid Nourani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 167–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-167-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The development of high-resolution global precipitation forecasts and the lack of reliable precipitation forecasts over Africa motivates this work to evaluate the precipitation forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) over the Niger river basin in Africa. The GFS forecasts, at a 15 d accumulation timescale, have an acceptable performance; however, the forecasts are highly biased. It is recommended to apply bias correction to GFS forecasts before their application.
Hadush Meresa, Conor Murphy, Rowan Fealy, and Saeed Golian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5237–5257, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5237-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5237-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The assessment of future impacts of climate change is associated with a cascade of uncertainty linked to the modelling chain employed in assessing local-scale changes. Understanding and quantifying this cascade is essential for developing effective adaptation actions. We find that not only do the contributions of different sources of uncertainty vary by catchment, but that the dominant sources of uncertainty can be very different on a catchment-by-catchment basis.
Qichun Yang, Quan J. Wang, Kirsti Hakala, and Yating Tang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4773–4788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4773-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4773-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts of water losses from land surface to the air are highly valuable for water resource management and planning. In this study, we aim to fill a critical knowledge gap in the forecasting of evaporative water loss. Model experiments across Australia clearly suggest the necessity of correcting errors in input variables for more reliable water loss forecasting. We anticipate that the strategy developed in our work will benefit future water loss forecasting and lead to more skillful forecasts.
Mostafa Tarek, François Brissette, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3331–3350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3331-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
It is not known how much uncertainty the choice of a reference data set may bring to impact studies. This study compares precipitation and temperature data sets to evaluate the uncertainty contribution to the results of climate change studies. Results show that all data sets provide good streamflow simulations over the reference period. The reference data sets also provided uncertainty that was equal to or larger than that related to general circulation models over most of the catchments.
Liming Wang, Songjun Han, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 375–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-375-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-375-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
It remains unclear at which timescale the complementary principle performs best in estimating evaporation. In this study, evaporation estimation was assessed over 88 eddy covariance monitoring sites at multiple timescales. The results indicate that the generalized complementary functions perform best in estimating evaporation at the monthly scale. This study provides a reference for choosing a suitable time step for evaporation estimations in relevant studies.
Okjeong Lee, Jeonghyeon Choi, Jeongeun Won, and Sangdan Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5077–5093, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5077-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5077-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The uncertainty of the model interpreting rainfall extremes with temperature is analyzed. The performance of the model focuses on the reliability of the output. It has been found that the selection of temperatures suitable for extreme levels plays an important role in improving model reliability. Based on this, a methodology is proposed to quantify the degree of uncertainty inherent in the change in rainfall extremes due to global warming.
Chao Gao, Martijn J. Booij, and Yue-Ping Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3251–3269, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3251-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper studies the impact of climate change on high and low flows and quantifies the contribution of uncertainty sources from representative concentration pathways (RCPs), global climate models (GCMs) and internal climate variability in extreme flows. Internal climate variability was reflected in a stochastic rainfall model. The results show the importance of internal climate variability and GCM uncertainty in high flows and GCM and RCP uncertainty in low flows especially for the far future.
Marc Schleiss, Jonas Olsson, Peter Berg, Tero Niemi, Teemu Kokkonen, Søren Thorndahl, Rasmus Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk Nielsen, Denica Bozhinova, and Seppo Pulkkinen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3157–3188, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3157-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3157-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A multinational assessment of radar's ability to capture heavy rain events is conducted. In total, six different radar products in Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland and Sweden were considered. Results show a fair agreement, with radar underestimating by 17 %-44 % on average compared with gauges. Despite being adjusted for bias, five of six radar products still exhibited strong conditional biases with intensities of 1–2% per mm/h. Median peak intensity bias was significantly higher, reaching 44 %–67%.
Xudong Zhou, Jan Polcher, Tao Yang, and Ching-Sheng Huang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2061–2081, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2061-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This article proposes a new estimation approach for assessing the uncertainty with multiple datasets by fully considering all variations in temporal and spatial dimensions. Comparisons demonstrate that classical metrics may underestimate the uncertainties among datasets due to an averaging process in their algorithms. This new approach is particularly suitable for overall assessment of multiple climatic products, but can be easily applied to other spatiotemporal products in related fields.
Lionel Berthet, François Bourgin, Charles Perrin, Julie Viatgé, Renaud Marty, and Olivier Piotte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2017–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2017-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
An increasing number of flood forecasting services assess and communicate the uncertainty associated with their forecasts. We present a crash-testing framework that evaluates the quality of hydrological forecasts in an extrapolation context. Overall, the results highlight the challenge of uncertainty quantification when forecasting high flows. They show a significant drop in reliability when forecasting high flows and considerable variability among catchments and across lead times.
Shaoning Lv, Bernd Schalge, Pablo Saavedra Garfias, and Clemens Simmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1957–1973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1957-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1957-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Passive remote sensing of soil moisture has good potential to improve weather forecasting via data assimilation in theory. We use the virtual reality data set (VR01) to infer the impact of sampling density on soil moisture ground cal/val activity. It shows how the sampling error is growing with an increasing sampling distance for a SMOS–SMAP scale footprint in about 40 km, 9 km, and 3 km. The conclusion will help in understanding the passive remote sensing soil moisture products.
Thanh Le and Deg-Hyo Bae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1131–1143, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1131-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1131-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Here we investigate the response of global evaporation to main climate modes, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results indicate that ENSO is an important driver of evaporation for many regions, while the impacts of NAO and IOD are substantial. This study allows us to obtain insight about the predictability of evaporation and, hence, may help to improve the early-warning systems of climate extremes.
Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Michael Herzog, and Cameron A. Petrie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 427–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-427-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-427-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The amount of precipitation falling in the Indus River basin remains uncertain while its variability impacts 100 million inhabitants. A comparison of datasets from diverse sources (ground remote observations, model outputs) reduces this uncertainty significantly. Grounded observations offer the most reliable long-term variability but with important underestimation in winter over the mountains. By contrast, recent model outputs offer better estimations of total amount and short-term variability.
Kamal Ahmed, Dhanapala A. Sachindra, Shamsuddin Shahid, Mehmet C. Demirel, and Eun-Sung Chung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4803–4824, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4803-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4803-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the performance of 36 CMIP5 GCMs in simulating seasonal precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature over Pakistan using spatial metrics (SPAtial EFficiency, fractions skill score, Goodman–Kruskal's lambda, Cramer's V, Mapcurves, and Kling–Gupta efficiency) for the period 1961–2005. NorESM1-M, MIROC5, BCC-CSM1-1, and ACCESS1-3 were identified as the most suitable GCMs for simulating all three climate variables over Pakistan.
Sungmin O and Ulrich Foelsche
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2863–2875, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2863-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2863-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze heavy local rainfall to address questions regarding the spatial uncertainty due to the approximation of areal rainfall using point measurements. Ten years of rainfall data from a dense network of 150 rain gauges in southeastern Austria are employed, which permits robust examination of small-scale rainfall at various horizontal resolutions. Quantitative uncertainty information from the study can guide both data users and producers to estimate uncertainty in their own rainfall dataset.
Aifeng Lv, Bo Qu, Shaofeng Jia, and Wenbin Zhu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 883–896, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-883-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
ENSO-related changes in daily precipitation regimes are currently ignored by the scientific community. We analyzed the anomalies of daily precipitation and hydrological extremes caused by different phases of ENSO events, as well as the possible driving mechanisms, to reveal the influence of ENSO on China's daily precipitation regimes. Our results provide a valuable tool for daily precipitation prediction and enable the prioritization of adaptation efforts ahead of extreme events in China.
Micheal J. Simpson and Neil I. Fox
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3375–3389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3375-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3375-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Many researchers have expressed that one of the main difficulties in modeling watershed hydrology is that of obtaining continuous, widespread weather input data, especially precipitation. The overarching objective of this study was to provide a comprehensive study of three weather radars as a function of range. We found that radar-estimated precipitation was best at ranges between 100 and 150 km from the radar, with different radar parameters being superior at varying distances from the radar.
Vimal Mishra, Reepal Shah, Syed Azhar, Harsh Shah, Parth Modi, and Rohini Kumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2269–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2269-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2269-2018, 2018
Sanjib Sharma, Ridwan Siddique, Seann Reed, Peter Ahnert, Pablo Mendoza, and Alfonso Mejia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1831–1849, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1831-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1831-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the relative roles of statistical weather preprocessing and streamflow postprocessing in hydrological ensemble forecasting at short- to medium-range forecast lead times (day 1–7). For this purpose, we develop and implement a regional hydrologic ensemble prediction system (RHEPS). Overall analysis shows that implementing both preprocessing and postprocessing ensures the most skill improvements, but postprocessing alone can often be a competitive alternative.
Kevin Sene, Wlodek Tych, and Keith Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 127–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-127-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The theme of the paper is exploration of the potential for seasonal flow forecasting for large lakes using a range of stochastic transfer function techniques with additional insights gained from simple analytical approximations. The methods were evaluated using records for two of the largest lakes in the world. The paper concludes with a discussion of the relevance of the results to operational flow forecasting systems for other large lakes.
Fan Yang, Hui Lu, Kun Yang, Jie He, Wei Wang, Jonathon S. Wright, Chengwei Li, Menglei Han, and Yishan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5805–5821, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5805-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5805-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we show that CLDAS has the highest spatial and temporal resolution, and it performs best in terms of precipitation, while it overestimates the shortwave radiation. CMFD also has high resolution and its shortwave radiation data match well with the station data; its annual-mean precipitation is reliable but its monthly precipitation needs improvements. Both GLDAS and CN05.1 over mainland China need to be improved. The results can benefit researchers for forcing data selection.
Rachel Bazile, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Luc Perreault, and Robert Leconte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5747–5762, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Meteorological forecasting agencies constantly work on pushing the limit of predictability farther in time. However, some end users need proof that climate model outputs are ready to be implemented operationally. We show that bias correction is crucial for the use of ECMWF System4 forecasts for the studied area and there is a potential for the use of 1-month-ahead forecasts. Beyond this, forecast performance is equivalent to using past climatology series as inputs to the hydrological model.
Judith Eeckman, Pierre Chevallier, Aaron Boone, Luc Neppel, Anneke De Rouw, Francois Delclaux, and Devesh Koirala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4879–4893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4879-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4879-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The central part of the Himalayan Range presents tremendous heterogeneity in terms of topography and climatology, but the representation of hydro-climatic processes for Himalayan catchments is limited due to a lack of knowledge in such poorly instrumented environments. The proposed approach is to characterize the effect of altitude on precipitation by considering ensembles of acceptable altitudinal factors. Ensembles of acceptable values for the components of the water cycle are then provided.
Jefferson S. Wong, Saman Razavi, Barrie R. Bonsal, Howard S. Wheater, and Zilefac E. Asong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2163–2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2163-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2163-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study was conducted to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of the errors associated with various gridded precipitation products in Canada. Overall, WFDEI [GPCC] and CaPA performed best with respect to different performance measures, followed by ANUSPLIN and WEDEI [CRU]. Princeton and NARR demonstrated the lowest quality. Comparing the climate model-simulated products, PCIC ensembles generally performed better than NA-CORDEX ensembles in terms of reliability in four seasons.
Danlu Guo, Seth Westra, and Holger R. Maier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2107-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study assessed the impact of baseline climate conditions on the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration (PET) to a large range of plausible changes in temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed at 30 Australian locations. Around 2-fold greater PET changes were observed at cool and humid locations compared to others, indicating potential for elevated water loss in the future. These impacts can be useful to inform the selection of PET models under a changing climate.
Vojtěch Svoboda, Martin Hanel, Petr Máca, and Jan Kyselý
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 963–980, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-963-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-963-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents validation of precipitation events as simulated by an ensemble of regional climate models for the Czech Republic. While the number of events per season, seasonal total precipitation due to heavy events and the distribution of rainfall depths are simulated relatively well, event maximum precipitation and event intensity are strongly underestimated. This underestimation cannot be explained by scale mismatch between point observations and area average (climate model simulations).
Martin Hanel, Petr Máca, Petr Bašta, Radek Vlnas, and Pavel Pech
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4307–4322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4307-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4307-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper is focused on assessment of the contribution of various sources of uncertainty to the estimated rainfall erosivity factor. It is shown that the rainfall erosivity factor can be estimated with reasonable precision even from records shorter than recommended, provided good spatial coverage and reasonable explanatory variables are available. The research was done as an update of the R factor estimates for the Czech Republic, which were later used for climate change assessment.
Jean-Philippe Vidal, Benoît Hingray, Claire Magand, Eric Sauquet, and Agnès Ducharne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3651–3672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Possible transient futures of winter and summer low flows for two snow-influenced catchments in the southern French Alps show a strong decrease signal. It is however largely masked by the year-to-year variability, which should be the main target for defining adaptation strategies. Responses of different hydrological models strongly diverge in the future, suggesting to carefully check the robustness of evapotranspiration and snowpack components under a changing climate.
Louise Arnal, Maria-Helena Ramos, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Hannah Louise Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Schalk Jan van Andel, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3109–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts are produced as probabilities of occurrence of specific events, which is both an added value and a challenge for users. This paper presents a game on flood protection, "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?", which investigated how users perceive the value of forecasts and are willing to pay for them when making decisions. It shows that users are mainly influenced by the perceived quality of the forecasts, their need for the information and their degree of risk tolerance.
K. Sunilkumar, T. Narayana Rao, and S. Satheeshkumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1719-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1719-2016, 2016
Vincent Roth and Tatenda Lemann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 921–934, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-921-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-921-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) suggests using the CFSR global rainfall data for modelling discharge and soil erosion in data-scarce parts of the world. These data are freely available and ready to use for SWAT modelling. However, simulations with the CFSR data in the Ethiopian Highlands were unable to represent the specific regional climates and showed high discrepancies. This article compares SWAT simulations with conventional rainfall data and with CFSR rainfall data.
J. Kim and S. K. Park
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 651–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-651-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-651-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study examined the uncertainty in climatological precipitation in East Asia, calculated from five gridded analysis data sets based on in situ rain gauge observations from 1980 to 2007. It is found that the regions of large uncertainties are typically lightly populated and are characterized by severe terrain and/or very high elevations. Thus, care must be taken in using long-term trends calculated from gridded precipitation analysis data for climate studies over such regions in East Asia.
M. F. Rios Gaona, A. Overeem, H. Leijnse, and R. Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3571–3584, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3571-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3571-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Commercial cellular networks are built for telecommunication purposes. These kinds of networks have lately been used to obtain rainfall maps at country-wide scales. From previous studies, we now quantify the uncertainties associated with such maps. To do so, we divided the sources or error into two categories: from microwave link measurements and from mapping. It was found that the former is the source that contributes the most to the overall error in rainfall maps from microwave link network.
S. H. Alemohammad, K. A. McColl, A. G. Konings, D. Entekhabi, and A. Stoffelen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3489–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3489-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3489-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a new variant of the triple collocation technique with multiplicative error model. The method is applied, for the first time, to precipitation products across the central part of continental USA. Results show distinctive patterns of error variance in each product that are estimated without a priori assumption of any of the error distributions. The correlation coefficients between each product and the truth are also estimated, which provides another performance perspective.
M. S. Raleigh, J. D. Lundquist, and M. P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3153–3179, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3153-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3153-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A sensitivity analysis is used to examine how error characteristics (type, distributions, and magnitudes) in meteorological forcing data impact outputs from a physics-based snow model in four climates. Bias and error magnitudes were key factors in model sensitivity and precipitation bias often dominated. However, the relative importance of forcings depended somewhat on the selected model output. Forcing uncertainty was comparable to model structural uncertainty as found in other studies.
S. Garrigues, A. Olioso, J. C. Calvet, E. Martin, S. Lafont, S. Moulin, A. Chanzy, O. Marloie, S. Buis, V. Desfonds, N. Bertrand, and D. Renard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3109–3131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3109-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3109-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration are assessed over a 12-year Mediterranean crop succession. Evapotranspiration mainly results from soil evaporation when it is simulated over a Mediterranean crop succession. This leads to a high sensitivity to the soil parameters. Errors on soil hydraulic properties can lead to a large bias in cumulative evapotranspiration over a long period of time. Accounting for uncertainties in soil properties is essential for land surface modelling.
W. Gong, Q. Duan, J. Li, C. Wang, Z. Di, Y. Dai, A. Ye, and C. Miao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2409–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2409-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2409-2015, 2015
S. O. Los
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1713–1725, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1713-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1713-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The study evaluates annual precipitation (largely rainfall) amounts for the tropics and subtropics; precipitation was obtained from ground observations, satellite observations and numerical weather forecasting models.
- Annual precipitation amounts from ground and satellite observations were the most realistic.
- Newer weather forecasting models better predicted annual precipitation than older models.
- Weather forecasting models predicted inaccurate precipitation amounts for Africa.
A. Kann, I. Meirold-Mautner, F. Schmid, G. Kirchengast, J. Fuchsberger, V. Meyer, L. Tüchler, and B. Bica
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1547–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1547-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1547-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a high resolution precipitation analysis system which operates on 1 km x 1 km resolution with high frequency updates of 5 minutes. The ability of such a system to adequately assess the convective precipitation distribution is evaluated by means of an independant, high resolution station network. This dense station network allows for a thorough evaluation of the analyses under different convective situations and of the representativeness error of raingaue measurements.
C. H. Wu, G. R. Huang, and H. J. Yu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1385–1399, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1385-2015, 2015
T. Antofie, G. Naumann, J. Spinoni, and J. Vogt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 177–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-177-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-177-2015, 2015
P. López López, J. S. Verkade, A. H. Weerts, and D. P. Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3411–3428, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3411-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3411-2014, 2014
G. Naumann, E. Dutra, P. Barbosa, F. Pappenberger, F. Wetterhall, and J. V. Vogt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1625–1640, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1625-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1625-2014, 2014
K. Liechti, L. Panziera, U. Germann, and M. Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3853–3869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3853-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3853-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Berg, A., Lintner, B., Findell, K., and Giannini, A.: Soil Moisture Influence
on Seasonality and Large-Scale Circulation in Simulations of the West African
Monsoon, J. Climate, 30, 2295–2317, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0877.1,
2017. a, b
Chen, L. and Dirmeyer, P. A.: Impacts of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on
Afternoon Precipitation over North America, J. Climate, 30,
2121–2140, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0589.1, 2017. a, b
Dirmeyer, P. A.: The terrestrial segment of soil moisture-climate coupling,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048268, 2011. a, b
Dirmeyer, P. A., Schlosser, C. A., and Brubaker, K. L.: Precipitation,
recycling, and land memory: An integrated analysis, J.
Hydrometeorol., 10, 278–288, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JHM1016.1, 2009. a
Dirmeyer, P. A., Cash, B. A., Kinter, J. L., Stan, C., Jung, T., Marx, L.,
Towers, P., Wedi, N., Adams, J. M., Altshuler, E. L., Huang, B., Jin, E. K.,
and Manganello, J.: Evidence for enhanced land-atmosphere feedback in a
warming climate, J. Hydrometeorol., 13, 981–995,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-0104.1, 2012. a
Dirmeyer, P. A., Wang, Z. Y., Mbuh, M. J., and Norton, H. E.: Intensified land
surface control on boundary layer growth in a changing climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1290–1294, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058826, 2014. a, b, c
Dirmeyer, P. A., Wu, J., Norton, H. E., Dorigo, W. A., Quiring, S. M., Ford,
T. W., Santanello, J. A., Bosilovich, M. G., Ek, M. B., Koster, R. D.,
Balsamo, G., and Lawrence, D. M.: Confronting Weather and Climate Models
with Observational Data from Soil Moisture Networks over the United States,
J. Hydrometeorol., 17, 1049–1067, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0196.1,
2016. a
Dirmeyer, P. A., Chen, L., Wu, J., Shin, C. S., Huang, B., Cash, B. A.,
Bosilovich, M. G., Mahanama, S., Koster, R. D., Santanello, J. A., Ek, M. B.,
Balsamo, G., Dutra, E., and Lawrence, D. M.: Verification of land-atmosphere
coupling in forecast models, reanalyses, and land surface models using flux
site observations, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 375–392,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0152.1, 2018. a, b
Dirmeyer, P. A., Balsamo, G., Blyth, E. M., Morrison, R., and Cooper, H. M.:
Land‐Atmosphere Interactions Exacerbated the Drought and Heatwave Over
Northern Europe During Summer 2018, AGU Advances, 2, e2020AV000283,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020av000283, 2021. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Ferguson, C. R., Wood, E. F., and Vinukollu, R. K.: A Global intercomparison
of modeled and observed land-atmosphere coupling, J.
Hydrometeorol., 13, 749–784, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-0119.1, 2012. a
Findell, K. L. and Eltahir, E. A. B.: Atmospheric Controls on Soil
Moisture–Boundary Layer Interactions. Part I: Framework Development,
J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 552–569,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<0552:ACOSML>2.0.CO;2, 2003a. a
Findell, K. L. and Eltahir, E. A. B.: Atmospheric controls on soil
moisture-boundary layer interactions: Three-dimensional wind effects, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 8385, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001jd001515,
2003b. a
Findell, K. L., Gentine, P., Lintner, B. R., and Kerr, C.: Probability of
afternoon precipitation in eastern United States and Mexico enhanced by high
evaporation, Nat. Geosci., 4, 434–439, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1174, 2011. a, b
Findell, K. L., Gentine, P., Lintner, B. R., and Guillod, B. P.: Data Length
Requirements for Observational Estimates of Land–Atmosphere Coupling
Strength, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 1615–1635,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0131.1, 2015. a, b
Findell, K. L., Keys, P. W., van der Ent, R. J., Lintner, B. R., Berg, A., and
Krasting, J. P.: Rising Temperatures Increase Importance of Oceanic
Evaporation as a Source for Continental Precipitation, J. Climate,
32, 7713–7726, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0145.1, 2019. a
Georgakakos, K. P. and Bras, R. L.: A hydrologically useful station
precipitation model: 1. Formulation, Water Resour. Res., 20,
1585–1596, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR020i011p01585, 1984. a
Guillod, B. P., Orlowsky, B., Miralles, D., Teuling, A. J., Blanken, P. D., Buchmann, N., Ciais, P., Ek, M., Findell, K. L., Gentine, P., Lintner, B. R., Scott, R. L., Van den Hurk, B., and I. Seneviratne, S.: Land-surface controls on afternoon precipitation diagnosed from observational data: uncertainties and confounding factors, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8343–8367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8343-2014, 2014. a
Guillod, B. P., Orlowsky, B., Miralles, D. G., Teuling, A. J., and Seneviratne,
S. I.: Reconciling spatial and temporal soil moisture effects on afternoon
rainfall, Nat. Commun., 6, 6443, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms7443, 2015. a
Guo, L.-Y., Gao, Q., Jiang, Z.-H., and Li, L.: Bias correction and projection
of surface air temperature in LMDZ multiple simulation over central and
eastern China, Advances in Climate Change Research, 9, 81–92,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2018.02.003, 2018. a
Guo, Z., Dirmeyer, P. A., and Delsole, T.: Land surface impacts on subseasonal
and seasonal predictability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L24812,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049945, 2011. a
Guo, Z. C., Dirmeyer, P. A., Koster, R., Sud, Y. C., Bonan, G., Oleson, K. W.,
Chan, E., Verseghy, D., Cox, P., Gordon, C. T., McGregor, J. L., Kanae, S.,
Kowalczyk, E., Lawrence, D., Liu, P., Mocko, D., Lu, C. H., Mitchell, K.,
Malyshev, S., McAvaney, B., Oki, T., Yamada, T., Pitman, A., Taylor, C. M.,
Vasic, R., and Xue, Y. K.: GLACE: The Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling
Experiment. Part II: Analysis, J. Hydrometeorol., 7, 611–625,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM511.1, 2006. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horanyi, A., Sabater,
J. M., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons,
A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thepaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on pressure
levels from 1979 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2018. a, b
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons,
A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati,
G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., Chiara, G. D., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D.,
Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer,
A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M.,
Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P.,
Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J. N.: The ERA5 global
reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146,
1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Humphrey, V., Berg, A., Ciais, P., Gentine, P., Jung, M., Reichstein, M.,
Seneviratne, S. I., and Frankenberg, C.: Soil moisture–atmosphere feedback
dominates land carbon uptake variability, Nature, 592, 65–69,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03325-5, 2021. a
Jach, L., Schwitalla, T., Branch, O., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Sensitivity of land–atmosphere coupling strength to changing atmospheric temperature and moisture over Europe, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 109–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-109-2022, 2022. a
Klein, C. and Taylor, C. M.: Dry soils can intensify mesoscale convective
systems, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 21132–21137, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007998117,
2020. a, b
Koster, R. D., Dirmeyer, P. A., Guo, Z., Bonan, G., Chan, E., Cox, P., Gordon,
C. T., Kanae, S., Kowalczyk, E., Lawrence, D., Liu, P., Lu, C. H., Malyshev,
S., McAvaney, B., Mitchell, K., Mocko, D., Oki, T., Oleson, K., Pitman, A.,
Sud, Y. C., Taylor, C. M., Verseghy, D., Vasic, R., Xue, Y., and Yamada, T.:
Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation,
Science, 305, 1138–1140, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1100217, 2004. a, b, c, d
Koster, R. D., Sud, Y. C., Guo, Z. C., Dirmeyer, P. A., Bonan, G., Oleson,
K. W., Chan, E., Verseghy, D., Cox, P., Davies, H., Kowalczyk, E., Gordon,
C. T., Kanae, S., Lawrence, D., Liu, P., Mocko, D., Lu, C. H., Mitchell, K.,
Malyshev, S., McAvaney, B., Oki, T., Yamada, T., Pitman, A., Taylor, C. M.,
Vasic, R., and Xue, Y. K.: GLACE: The Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling
Experiment. Part I: Overview, J. Hydrometeorol., 7, 590–610,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM510.1, 2006. a
Laguë, M. M., Bonan, G. B., and Swann, A. L. S.: Separating the Impact of
Individual Land Surface Properties on the Terrestrial Surface Energy Budget
in both the Coupled and Uncoupled Land–Atmosphere System, J.
Climate, 32, 5725–5744, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0812.1, 2019. a
Lorenz, R., Pitman, A. J., Hirsch, A. L., and Srbinovsky, J.: Intraseasonal
versus interannual measures of land-atmosphere coupling strength in a global
climate model: GLACE-1 versus GLACE-CMIP5 experiments in ACCESS1.3b, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 2276–2295, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0206.1, 2015. a, b
Miralles, D. G., Gentine, P., Seneviratne, S. I., and Teuling, A. J.:
Land-atmospheric feedbacks during droughts and heatwaves: state of the
science and current challenges, Ann. NY Acad. Sci.,
1436, 19–35, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13912, 2019. a
Santanello, J. A., Peters-Lidard, C. D., Kumar, S. V., Alonge, C., and Tao,
W. K.: A Modeling and Observational Framework for Diagnosing Local
Land–Atmosphere Coupling on Diurnal Time Scales, J. Hydrometeorol., 10, 577–599, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JHM1066.1, 2009. a, b
Santanello, J. A., Dirmeyer, P. A., Ferguson, C. R., Findell, K. L., Tawfik,
A. B., Berg, A., Ek, M., Gentine, P., Guillod, B. P., van Heerwaarden, C.,
Roundy, J., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Land–Atmosphere Interactions: The LoCo
Perspective, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 1253–1272,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0001.1, 2018. a, b, c, d
Schumacher, D. L., Keune, J., van Heerwaarden, C. C., de Arellano, J. V.-G.,
Teuling, A. J., and Miralles, D. G.: Amplification of mega-heatwaves through
heat torrents fuelled by upwind drought, Nat. Geosci., 12, 712–717,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0431-6, 2019. a
Seneviratne, S. I., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B.,
Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J.: Investigating soil
moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review,
Earth-Sci. Rev., 99, 125–161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004,
2010. a, b
Seo, E. and Dirmeyer, P. A.: Understanding the diurnal cycle of land–atmosphere interactions from flux site observations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5411–5429, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5411-2022, 2022. a
Tawfik, A. B.: Coupling Metrics Toolkit, GitHub [code], https://github.com/abtawfik/coupling-metrics, last access: 16 February 2023. a
Tawfik, A. B. and Dirmeyer, P. A.: A process-based framework for quantifying
the atmospheric preconditioning of surface-triggered convection, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 173–178, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057984, 2014. a
Taylor, C. M., Belušić, D., Guichard, F., Parker, D. J., Vischel, T., Bock,
O., Harris, P. P., Janicot, S., Klein, C., and Panthou, G.: Frequency of
extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations, Nature,
544, 475–478, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22069, 2017.
a
Vrac, M., Drobinski, P., Merlo, A., Herrmann, M., Lavaysse, C., Li, L., and Somot, S.: Dynamical and statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: uncertainty assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2769–2784, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2769-2012, 2012. a
Warszawski, L., Frieler, K., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Serdeczny, O., and Schewe,
J.: The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP):
Project framework, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111,
3228–3232, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312330110, 2014. a
Xie, P., Joyce, R., Wu, S., Yoo, S.-H., Yarosh, Y., Sun, F., and Lin, R.:
Reprocessed, Bias-Corrected CMORPH Global High-Resolution Precipitation
Estimates from 1998, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 1617–1641,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0168.1, 2017. a
Zhou, S., Williams, A. P., Lintner, B. R., Berg, A. M., Zhang, Y., Keenan,
T. F., Cook, B. I., Hagemann, S., Seneviratne, S. I., and Gentine, P.: Soil
moisture–atmosphere feedbacks mitigate declining water availability in
drylands, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 38–44, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00945-z, 2021. a
Short summary
Land–atmosphere (L–A) interactions typically focus on daytime processes connecting the land state with the overlying atmospheric boundary layer. However, much prior L–A work used monthly or daily means due to the lack of daytime-only data products. Here we show that monthly smoothing can significantly obscure the L–A coupling signal, and including nighttime information can mute or mask the daytime processes of interest. We propose diagnosing L–A coupling within models or archiving subdaily data.
Land–atmosphere (L–A) interactions typically focus on daytime processes connecting the land...
