Articles | Volume 27, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-453-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-453-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Jan 2023
Research article |
| 20 Jan 2023
A snow and glacier hydrological model for large catchments – case study for the Naryn River, central Asia
Sarah Shannon
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geographical Science, University Road, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UJ, UK
Anthony Payne
Department of Geographical Science, University Road, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UJ, UK
Jim Freer
Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Canmore, Alberta, T1W 3G1, Canada
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UJ, UK
Department of Geographical Science, University Road, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Gemma Coxon
Department of Geographical Science, University Road, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UJ, UK
Martina Kauzlaric
Universität Bern, Geographisches Institut, Climate Impact Research, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
David Kriegel
Ingenieurbüro für Grundwasser GmbH, Leipzig, Germany
Stephan Harrison
Department of Geography, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK
Related authors
Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matthias Huss, Richard Betts, John Caesar, Aris Koutroulis, Darren Jones, and Stephan Harrison
The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
Louisa D. Oldham, Jim Freer, Gemma Coxon, Nicholas Howden, John P. Bloomfield, and Christopher Jackson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 761–781, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Water can move between river catchments via the subsurface, termed intercatchment groundwater flow (IGF). We show how a perceptual model of IGF can be developed with relatively simple geological interpretation and data requirements. We find that IGF dynamics vary in space, correlated to the dominant underlying geology. We recommend that IGF
loss functionsmay be used in conceptual rainfall–runoff models but should be supported by perceptualisation of IGF processes and connectivities.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir Aghakouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H.J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T.H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-330, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-330, 2023
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e., two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Rosanna A. Lane, Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, Jan Seibert, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5535–5554, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study modelled the impact of climate change on river high flows across Great Britain (GB). Generally, results indicated an increase in the magnitude and frequency of high flows along the west coast of GB by 2050–2075. In contrast, average flows decreased across GB. All flow projections contained large uncertainties; the climate projections were the largest source of uncertainty overall but hydrological modelling uncertainties were considerable in some regions.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Daniel Viviroli, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoit Hingray, Gilles Nicolet, Damien Raynaud, Jan Seibert, Rolf Weingartner, and Calvin Whealton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating the magnitude of rare to very rare floods is a challenging task due to a lack of sufficiently long observations. The challenge is even greater in large river basins, where precipitation patterns and amounts differ considerably between individual events and floods from different parts of the basin coincide. We show that a hydrometeorological model chain can provide plausible estimates in this setting and can thus inform flood risk and safety assessments for critical infrastructure.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Tony Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin Smith, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Hannes Konrad, Peter Langen, Benoit Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-261, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-261, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheets mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost 7.5 trillion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Thomas Lees, Marcus Buechel, Bailey Anderson, Louise Slater, Steven Reece, Gemma Coxon, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5517–5534, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5517-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5517-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We used deep learning (DL) models to simulate the amount of water moving through a river channel (discharge) based on the rainfall, temperature and potential evaporation in the previous days. We tested the DL models on catchments across Great Britain finding that the model can accurately simulate hydrological systems across a variety of catchment conditions. Ultimately, the model struggled most in areas where there is chalky bedrock and where human influence on the catchment is large.
John P. Bloomfield, Mengyi Gong, Benjamin P. Marchant, Gemma Coxon, and Nans Addor
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5355–5379, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5355-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater provides flow, known as baseflow, to surface streams and rivers. It is important as it sustains the flow of many rivers at times of water stress. However, it may be affected by water management practices. Statistical models have been used to show that abstraction of groundwater may influence baseflow. Consequently, it is recommended that information on groundwater abstraction is included in future assessments and predictions of baseflow.
Gemma Coxon, Nans Addor, John P. Bloomfield, Jim Freer, Matt Fry, Jamie Hannaford, Nicholas J. K. Howden, Rosanna Lane, Melinda Lewis, Emma L. Robinson, Thorsten Wagener, and Ross Woods
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2459–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2459-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first large-sample catchment hydrology dataset for Great Britain. The dataset collates river flows, catchment attributes, and catchment boundaries for 671 catchments across Great Britain. We characterise the topography, climate, streamflow, land cover, soils, hydrogeology, human influence, and discharge uncertainty of each catchment. The dataset is publicly available for the community to use in a wide range of environmental and modelling analyses.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Isabel J. Nias, Antony J. Payne, Nicholas R. Golledge, and Rory J. Bingham
The Cryosphere, 14, 1245–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020, 2020
Rosanna A. Lane, Gemma Coxon, Jim E. Freer, Thorsten Wagener, Penny J. Johnes, John P. Bloomfield, Sheila Greene, Christopher J. A. Macleod, and Sim M. Reaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4011–4032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4011-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4011-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated four hydrological model structures and their parameters on over 1100 catchments across Great Britain, considering modelling uncertainties. Models performed well for most catchments but failed in parts of Scotland and south-eastern England. Failures were often linked to inconsistencies in the water balance. This research shows what conceptual lumped models can achieve, gives insights into where and why these models may fail, and provides a benchmark of national modelling capability.
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, Stephen L. Cornford, and Twila Moon
The Cryosphere, 13, 1877–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Iceberg calving is a major factor in the retreat of outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Massive block overturning calving events occur at major outlet glaciers. A major calving event in 2009 was triggered by the release of a smaller block of ice from above the waterline. Using a numerical model, we investigate the feasibility of this mechanism to drive large calving events. We find that relatively small perturbations induce forces large enough to open cracks in ice at the glacier bed.
Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, Rosanna Lane, Toby Dunne, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Nicholas J. K. Howden, Niall Quinn, Thorsten Wagener, and Ross Woods
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2285–2306, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2285-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2285-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
DECIPHeR (Dynamic fluxEs and ConnectIvity for Predictions of Hydrology) is a new modelling framework that can be applied from small catchment to continental scales for complex river basins. This paper describes the modelling framework and its key components and demonstrates the model’s ability to be applied across a large model domain. This work highlights the potential for catchment- to continental-scale predictions of streamflow to support robust environmental management and policy decisions.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sally Rangecroft, Gemma Coxon, José Agustín Breña Naranjo, Floris Van Ogtrop, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1725–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1725-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1725-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the use of the classic
paired-catchmentapproach to quantify human influence on hydrological droughts. In this approach two similar catchments are compared and differences are attributed to the human activity present in one. In two case studies in UK and Australia, we found that groundwater abstraction aggravated streamflow drought by > 200 % and water transfer alleviated droughts with 25–80 %. Understanding the human influence on droughts can support water management decisions.
Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matthias Huss, Richard Betts, John Caesar, Aris Koutroulis, Darren Jones, and Stephan Harrison
The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
Andreas Paul Zischg, Guido Felder, Rolf Weingartner, Niall Quinn, Gemma Coxon, Jeffrey Neal, Jim Freer, and Paul Bates
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2759–2773, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model experiment and distributed different rainfall patterns over a mountain river basin. For each rainfall scenario, we computed the flood losses with a model chain. The experiment shows that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. Basin-specific characteristics such as the location of the main settlements within the floodplains play an additional important role in determining flood losses.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Stephan Harrison, Jeffrey S. Kargel, Christian Huggel, John Reynolds, Dan H. Shugar, Richard A. Betts, Adam Emmer, Neil Glasser, Umesh K. Haritashya, Jan Klimeš, Liam Reinhardt, Yvonne Schaub, Andy Wiltshire, Dhananjay Regmi, and Vít Vilímek
The Cryosphere, 12, 1195–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Most mountain glaciers have receded throughout the last century in response to global climate change. This recession produces a range of natural hazards including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We have produced the first global inventory of GLOFs associated with the failure of moraine dams and show, counterintuitively, that these have reduced in frequency over recent decades. In this paper we explore the reasons for this pattern.
Simon Brenner, Gemma Coxon, Nicholas J. K. Howden, Jim Freer, and Andreas Hartmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 445–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-445-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-445-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we simulate groundwater levels with a semi-distributed karst model. Using a percentile approach we can assess the number of days exceeding or falling below selected groundwater level percentiles. We show that our approach is able to predict groundwater levels across all considered timescales up to the 75th percentile. We then use our approach to assess future changes in groundwater dynamics and show that projected climate changes may lead to generally lower groundwater levels.
Benoit P. Guillod, Richard G. Jones, Simon J. Dadson, Gemma Coxon, Gianbattista Bussi, James Freer, Alison L. Kay, Neil R. Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom, Myles R. Allen, and Jim W. Hall
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 611–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-611-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-611-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing the potential impacts of extreme events such as drought and flood requires large datasets of such events, especially when looking at the most severe and rare events. Using a state-of-the-art climate modelling infrastructure that is simulating large numbers of weather time series on volunteers' computers, we generate such a large dataset for the United Kingdom. The dataset covers the recent past (1900–2006) as well as two future time periods (2030s and 2080s).
Katrien Van Eerdenbrugh, Stijn Van Hoey, Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, and Niko E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5315–5337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5315-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5315-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Consistency in stage–discharge data is investigated using a methodology called Bidirectional Reach (BReach). Various measurement stations in the UK, New Zealand and Belgium are selected based on their historical ratings information and their characteristics related to data consistency. When applying a BReach analysis on them, the methodology provides results that appear consistent with the available knowledge and thus facilitates a reliable assessment of (in)consistency in stage–discharge data.
Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, Heiko Goelzer, William Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Andrew Shepherd
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4521–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes an experimental protocol designed to quantify and understand the global sea level that arises due to past, present, and future changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, along with investigating ice sheet–climate feedbacks. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) protocol includes targeted experiments, and a set of output diagnostic related to ice sheets, that are part of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
Emma J. Stone, Emilie Capron, Daniel J. Lunt, Antony J. Payne, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 12, 1919–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1919-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1919-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models forced only with greenhouse gas concentrations and orbital parameters representative of the early Last Interglacial are unable to reproduce the observed colder-than-present temperatures in the North Atlantic and the warmer-than-present temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere. Using a climate model forced also with a freshwater amount derived from data representing melting from the remnant Northern Hemisphere ice sheets accounts for this response via the bipolar seesaw mechanism.
William H. G. Roberts, Antony J. Payne, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 12, 1601–1617, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1601-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1601-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
There are observations from ocean sediment cores that during the last ice age the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which sat over North America, periodically surged. In this study we show the role that water at the base of an ice sheet plays in these surges. We show that with a more realistic representation of water drainage at the base of the ice sheet than usually used, these surges can still occur and that they are triggered by an internal ice sheet instability; no external trigger is needed.
S. L. Cornford, D. F. Martin, A. J. Payne, E. G. Ng, A. M. Le Brocq, R. M. Gladstone, T. L. Edwards, S. R. Shannon, C. Agosta, M. R. van den Broeke, H. H. Hellmer, G. Krinner, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, R. Timmermann, and D. G. Vaughan
The Cryosphere, 9, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We used a high-resolution ice sheet model capable of resolving grounding line dynamics (BISICLES) to compute responses of the major West Antarctic ice streams to projections of ocean and atmospheric warming. This is computationally demanding, and although other groups have considered parts of West Antarctica, we think this is the first calculation for the whole region at the sub-kilometer resolution that we show is required.
A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. L. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H. H. Hellmer, M. A. Martin, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, A. J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W. L. Wang, and R. A. Bindschadler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 271–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, 2014
T. Howard, J. Ridley, A. K. Pardaens, R. T. W. L. Hurkmans, A. J. Payne, R. H. Giesen, J. A. Lowe, J. L. Bamber, T. L. Edwards, and J. Oerlemans
Ocean Sci., 10, 485–500, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-485-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-485-2014, 2014
Y. Gong, S. L. Cornford, and A. J. Payne
The Cryosphere, 8, 1057–1068, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1057-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1057-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 195–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Snow and Ice | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Climate sensitivity of the summer runoff of two glacierised Himalayan catchments with contrasting climate
Precipitation biases and snow physics limitations drive the uncertainties in macroscale modeled snow water equivalent
Development and parameter estimation of snowmelt models using spatial snow-cover observations from MODIS
Recent hydrological response of glaciers in the Canadian Rockies to changing climate and glacier configuration
Future projections of High Atlas snowpack and runoff under climate change
Trends and variability in snowmelt in China under climate change
Assimilation of citizen science data in snowpack modeling using a new snow data set: Community Snow Observations
Snowpack dynamics in the Lebanese mountains from quasi-dynamically downscaled ERA5 reanalysis updated by assimilating remotely sensed fractional snow-covered area
The evaluation of the potential of global data products for snow hydrological modelling in ungauged high-alpine catchments
Learning about precipitation lapse rates from snow course data improves water balance modeling
Snow water equivalents exclusively from snow depths and their temporal changes: the Δsnow model
Application of machine learning techniques for regional bias correction of snow water equivalent estimates in Ontario, Canada
Sensitivity of snow models to the accuracy of meteorological forcings in mountain environments
Snow processes in mountain forests: interception modeling for coarse-scale applications
Satellite-derived products of solar and longwave irradiances used for snowpack modelling in mountainous terrain
Using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data to derive corrections to precipitation data sets and improve modelled snow mass at high latitudes
The role of liquid water percolation representation in estimating snow water equivalent in a Mediterranean mountain region (Mount Lebanon)
Hyper-resolution ensemble-based snow reanalysis in mountain regions using clustering
The sensitivity of modeled snow accumulation and melt to precipitation phase methods across a climatic gradient
Assessment of SWAT spatial and temporal transferability for a high-altitude glacierized catchment
Modeling experiments on seasonal lake ice mass and energy balance in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau: a case study
A simple model for local-scale sensible and latent heat advection contributions to snowmelt
Assimilation of passive microwave AMSR-2 satellite observations in a snowpack evolution model over northeastern Canada
A simple temperature-based method to estimate heterogeneous frozen ground within a distributed watershed model
Technical note: Representing glacier geometry changes in a semi-distributed hydrological model
Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach
Scenario approach for the seasonal forecast of Kharif flows from the Upper Indus Basin
The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments
Modelling hydrologic impacts of light absorbing aerosol deposition on snow at the catchment scale
Liquid water infiltration into a layered snowpack: evaluation of a 3-D water transport model with laboratory experiments
Assessing glacier melt contribution to streamflow at Universidad Glacier, central Andes of Chile
Modelling liquid water transport in snow under rain-on-snow conditions – considering preferential flow
Developing a representative snow-monitoring network in a forested mountain watershed
Subgrid parameterization of snow distribution at a Mediterranean site using terrestrial photography
Assessing the benefit of snow data assimilation for runoff modeling in Alpine catchments
Stable oxygen isotope variability in two contrasting glacier river catchments in Greenland
Spatio-temporal variability of snow water equivalent in the extra-tropical Andes Cordillera from distributed energy balance modeling and remotely sensed snow cover
A conceptual, distributed snow redistribution model
Diagnostic calibration of a hydrological model in a mountain area by hydrograph partitioning
Meltwater run-off from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains, 2002–2013
Modeling the snow surface temperature with a one-layer energy balance snowmelt model
Estimating degree-day factors from MODIS for snowmelt runoff modeling
Effect of meteorological forcing and snow model complexity on hydrological simulations in the Sieber catchment (Harz Mountains, Germany)
Model simulations of the modulating effect of the snow cover in a rain-on-snow event
Modelling runoff from a Himalayan debris-covered glacier
Large-scale analysis of changing frequencies of rain-on-snow events with flood-generation potential
Challenges in modelling river flow and ice regime on the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River, China
Correcting basin-scale snowfall in a mountainous basin using a distributed snowmelt model and remote-sensing data
Large scale snow water equivalent status monitoring: comparison of different snow water products in the upper Colorado Basin
Precipitation and snow cover in the Himalaya: from reanalysis to regional climate simulations
Sourav Laha, Argha Banerjee, Ajit Singh, Parmanand Sharma, and Meloth Thamban
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 627–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-627-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A model study of two Himalayan catchments reveals that the summer runoff from the glacierized parts of the catchments responds strongly to temperature forcing and is insensitive to precipitation forcing. The runoff from the non-glacierized parts has the exact opposite behaviour. The interannual variability and decadal changes of runoff under a warming climate is determined by the response of glaciers to temperature forcing and that of off-glacier areas to precipitation perturbations.
Eunsang Cho, Carrie M. Vuyovich, Sujay V. Kumar, Melissa L. Wrzesien, Rhae Sung Kim, and Jennifer M. Jacobs
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5721–5735, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5721-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
While land surface models are a common approach for estimating macroscale snow water equivalent (SWE), the SWE accuracy is often limited by uncertainties in model physics and forcing inputs. In this study, we found large underestimations of modeled SWE compared to observations. Precipitation forcings and melting physics limitations dominantly contribute to the SWE underestimations. Results provide insights into prioritizing strategies to improve the SWE simulations for hydrologic applications.
Dhiraj Raj Gyawali and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3055–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, different extensions of the degree-day model were calibrated on snow-cover distribution against freely available satellite snow-cover images. The calibrated models simulated the distribution very well in Baden-Württemberg (Germany) and Switzerland. In addition to reliable identification of snow cover, the melt outputs from the calibrated models were able to improve the flow simulations in different catchments in the study region.
Dhiraj Pradhananga and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2605–2616, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2605-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2605-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study considers the combined impacts of climate and glacier changes due to recession on the hydrology and water balance of two high-elevation glaciers. Peyto and Athabasca glacier basins in the Canadian Rockies have undergone continuous glacier loss over the last 3 to 5 decades, leading to an increase in ice exposure and changes to the elevation and slope of the glacier surfaces. Streamflow from these glaciers continues to increase more due to climate warming than glacier recession.
Alexandre Tuel, Nabil El Moçayd, Moulay Driss Hasnaoui, and Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 571–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-571-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-571-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snowmelt in the High Atlas is critical for irrigation in Morocco but is threatened by climate change. We assess future trends in High Atlas snowpack by modelling it under historical and future climate scenarios and estimate their impact on runoff. We find that the combined warming and drying will result in a roughly 80 % decline in snowpack, a 5 %–30 % decrease in runoff efficiency and 50 %–60 % decline in runoff under a business-as-usual scenario.
Yong Yang, Rensheng Chen, Guohua Liu, Zhangwen Liu, and Xiqiang Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 305–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A comprehensive assessment of snowmelt is missing for China. Trends and variability in snowmelt in China under climate change are investigated using historical precipitation and temperature data (1951–2017) and projection scenarios (2006–2099). The snowmelt and snowmelt runoff ratio show significant spatial and temporal variability in China. The spatial variability in snowmelt changes may lead to regional differences in the impact of snowmelt on the water supply.
Ryan L. Crumley, David F. Hill, Katreen Wikstrom Jones, Gabriel J. Wolken, Anthony A. Arendt, Christina M. Aragon, Christopher Cosgrove, and Community Snow Observations Participants
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4651–4680, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4651-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4651-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use a new snow data set collected by participants in the Community Snow Observations project in coastal Alaska to improve snow depth and snow water equivalence simulations from a snow process model. We validate our simulations with multiple datasets, taking advantage of snow telemetry (SNOTEL), snow depth and snow water equivalence, and remote sensing measurements. Our results demonstrate that assimilating citizen science snow depth measurements can improve model performance.
Esteban Alonso-González, Ethan Gutmann, Kristoffer Aalstad, Abbas Fayad, Marine Bouchet, and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4455–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4455-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Snow water resources represent a key hydrological resource for the Mediterranean regions, where most of the precipitation falls during the winter months. This is the case for Lebanon, where snowpack represents 31 % of the spring flow. We have used models to generate snow information corrected by means of remote sensing snow cover retrievals. Our results highlight the high temporal variability in the snowpack in Lebanon and its sensitivity to further warming caused by its hypsography.
Michael Weber, Franziska Koch, Matthias Bernhardt, and Karsten Schulz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2869–2894, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2869-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2869-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We compared a suite of globally available meteorological and DEM data with in situ data for physically based snow hydrological modelling in a small high-alpine catchment. Although global meteorological data were less suited to describe the snowpack properly, transferred station data from a similar location in the vicinity and substituting single variables with global products performed well. In addition, using 30 m global DEM products as model input was useful in such complex terrain.
Francesco Avanzi, Giulia Ercolani, Simone Gabellani, Edoardo Cremonese, Paolo Pogliotti, Gianluca Filippa, Umberto Morra di Cella, Sara Ratto, Hervè Stevenin, Marco Cauduro, and Stefano Juglair
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2109–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2109-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2109-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation tends to increase with elevation, but the magnitude and distribution of this enhancement remain poorly understood. By leveraging over 11 000 spatially distributed, manual measurements of snow depth (snow courses) upstream of two reservoirs in the western European Alps, we show that these courses bear a characteristic signature of orographic precipitation. This opens a window of opportunity for improved modeling accuracy and, ultimately, our understanding of the water budget.
Michael Winkler, Harald Schellander, and Stefanie Gruber
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1165–1187, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1165-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1165-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new method to calculate the mass of snow is provided. It is quite simple but gives surprisingly good results. The new approach only requires regular snow depth observations to simulate respective water mass that is stored in the snow. It is called
ΔSNOW model, its code is freely available, and it can be applied in various climates. The method is especially interesting for studies on extremes (e.g., snow loads or flooding) and climate (e.g., precipitation trends).
Fraser King, Andre R. Erler, Steven K. Frey, and Christopher G. Fletcher
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4887–4902, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4887-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4887-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Snow is a critical contributor to our water and energy budget, with impacts on flooding and water resource management. Measuring the amount of snow on the ground each year is an expensive and time-consuming task. Snow models and gridded products help to fill these gaps, yet there exist considerable uncertainties associated with their estimates. We demonstrate that machine learning techniques are able to reduce biases in these products to provide more realistic snow estimates across Ontario.
Silvia Terzago, Valentina Andreoli, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Lorenzo Campo, Claudio Cassardo, Edoardo Cremonese, Daniele Dolia, Simone Gabellani, Jost von Hardenberg, Umberto Morra di Cella, Elisa Palazzi, Gaia Piazzi, Paolo Pogliotti, and Antonello Provenzale
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4061–4090, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4061-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In mountain areas high-quality meteorological data to drive snow models are rarely available, so coarse-resolution data from spatial interpolation of the available in situ measurements or reanalyses are typically employed. We perform 12 experiments using six snow models with different degrees of complexity to show the impact of the accuracy of the forcing on snow depth and snow water equivalent simulations at the Alpine site of Torgnon, discussing the results in relation to the model complexity.
Nora Helbig, David Moeser, Michaela Teich, Laure Vincent, Yves Lejeune, Jean-Emmanuel Sicart, and Jean-Matthieu Monnet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2545–2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2545-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2545-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Snow retained in the forest canopy (snow interception) drives spatial variability of the subcanopy snow accumulation. As such, accurately describing snow interception in models is of importance for various applications such as hydrological, weather, and climate predictions. We developed descriptions for the spatial mean and variability of snow interception. An independent evaluation demonstrated that the novel models can be applied in coarse land surface model grid cells.
Louis Quéno, Fatima Karbou, Vincent Vionnet, and Ingrid Dombrowski-Etchevers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2083–2104, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2083-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In mountainous terrain, the snowpack is strongly affected by incoming shortwave and longwave radiation. Satellite-derived products of incoming radiation were assessed in the French Alps and the Pyrenees and compared to meteorological forecasts, reanalyses and in situ measurements. We showed their good quality in mountains. The different radiation datasets were used as radiative forcing for snowpack simulations with the detailed model Crocus. Their impact on the snowpack evolution was explored.
Emma L. Robinson and Douglas B. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1763–1779, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1763-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1763-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study used a water balance approach based on GRACE total water storage to infer the amount of cold-season precipitation in four Arctic river basins. This was used to evaluate four gridded meteorological data sets, which were used as inputs to a land surface model. We found that the cold-season precipitation in these data sets needed to be increased by up to 55 %. Using these higher precipitation inputs improved the model representation of Arctic hydrology, particularly lying snow.
Abbas Fayad and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1527–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1527-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1527-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal snowpack is an essential water resource in Mediterranean mountains. Here, we look at the role of water percolation in simulating snow mass (SWE), for the first time, in Mount Lebanon. We use SnowModel, a distributed snow model, forced by station data. The main sources of uncertainty were attributed to rain–snow partitioning, transient winter snowmelt, and the subpixel snow cover. Yet, we show that a process-based model is suitable to simulate wet snowpack in Mediterranean mountains.
Joel Fiddes, Kristoffer Aalstad, and Sebastian Westermann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4717–4736, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4717-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4717-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we address one of the big challenges in snow hydrology, namely the accurate simulation of the seasonal snowpack in ungauged regions. We do this by assimilating satellite observations of snow cover into a modelling framework. Importantly (and a novelty of the paper), we include a clustering approach that permits highly efficient ensemble simulations. Efficiency gains and dependency on purely global datasets, means that this method can be applied over large areas anywhere on Earth.
Keith S. Jennings and Noah P. Molotch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3765–3786, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3765-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3765-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
There is a wide variety of modeling methods to designate precipitation as rain, snow, or a mix of the two. Here we show that method choice introduces marked uncertainty to simulated snowpack water storage (> 200 mm) and snow cover duration (> 1 month) in areas that receive significant winter and spring precipitation at air temperatures at and near freezing. This marked uncertainty has implications for water resources management as well as simulations of past and future hydroclimatic states.
Maria Andrianaki, Juna Shrestha, Florian Kobierska, Nikolaos P. Nikolaidis, and Stefano M. Bernasconi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3219–3232, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3219-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3219-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We tested the performance of the SWAT hydrological model after being transferred from a small Alpine watershed to a greater area. We found that the performance of the model for the greater catchment was satisfactory and the climate change simulations gave insights into the impact of climate change on our site. Assessment tests are important in identifying the strengths and weaknesses of the models when they are applied under extreme conditions different to the ones that were calibrated.
Wenfeng Huang, Bin Cheng, Jinrong Zhang, Zheng Zhang, Timo Vihma, Zhijun Li, and Fujun Niu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2173–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2173-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2173-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Up to now, little has been known on ice thermodynamics and lake–atmosphere interaction over the Tibetan Plateau during ice-covered seasons due to a lack of field data. Here, model experiments on ice thermodynamics were conducted in a shallow lake using HIGHTSI. Water–ice heat flux was a major source of uncertainty for lake ice thickness. Heat and mass budgets were estimated within the vertical air–ice–water system. Strong ice sublimation occurred and was responsible for water loss during winter.
Phillip Harder, John W. Pomeroy, and Warren D. Helgason
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
As snow cover becomes patchy during snowmelt, energy is advected from warm snow-free surfaces to cold snow-covered surfaces. This paper proposes a simple sensible and latent heat advection model for snowmelt situations that can be coupled to one-dimensional energy balance snowmelt models. The model demonstrates that sensible and latent heat advection fluxes can compensate for one another, especially in early melt periods.
Fanny Larue, Alain Royer, Danielle De Sève, Alexandre Roy, and Emmanuel Cosme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5711–5734, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5711-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5711-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A data assimilation scheme was developed to improve snow water equivalent (SWE) simulations by updating meteorological forcings and snowpack states using passive microwave satellite observations. A chain of models was first calibrated to simulate satellite observations over northeastern Canada. The assimilation was then validated over 12 stations where daily SWE measurements were acquired during 4 winters (2012–2016). The overall SWE bias is reduced by 68 % compared to original SWE simulations.
Michael L. Follum, Jeffrey D. Niemann, Julie T. Parno, and Charles W. Downer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2669–2688, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2669-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2669-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Spatial patterns of snow and frozen ground within watersheds can impact the volume and timing of runoff. Commonly used snow and frozen ground simulation methods were modified to better account for the effects of topography and land cover on the spatial patterns of snow and frozen ground. When tested using a watershed in Vermont the modifications resulted in more accurate temporal and spatial simulation of both snow and frozen ground.
Jan Seibert, Marc J. P. Vis, Irene Kohn, Markus Weiler, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2211–2224, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2211-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2211-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In many glacio-hydrological models glacier areas are assumed to be constant over time, which is a crucial limitation. Here we describe a novel approach to translate mass balances as simulated by the (glacio)hydrological model into glacier area changes. We combined the Δh approach of Huss et al. (2010) with the bucket-type model HBV and introduced a lookup table approach, which also allows periods with advancing glaciers to be represented, which is not possible with the original Huss method.
Florian Hanzer, Kristian Förster, Johanna Nemec, and Ulrich Strasser
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1593–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1593-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1593-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change effects on snow, glaciers, and hydrology are investigated for the Ötztal Alps region (Austria) using a hydroclimatological model driven by climate projections for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show declining snow amounts and strongly retreating glaciers with moderate effects on catchment runoff until the mid-21st century, whereas annual runoff volumes decrease strongly towards the end of the century.
Muhammad Fraz Ismail and Wolfgang Bogacki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1391–1409, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1391-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1391-2018, 2018
Marit Van Tiel, Adriaan J. Teuling, Niko Wanders, Marc J. P. Vis, Kerstin Stahl, and Anne F. Van Loon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 463–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-463-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers are important hydrological reservoirs. Short-term variability in glacier melt and also glacier retreat can cause droughts in streamflow. In this study, we analyse the effect of glacier changes and different drought threshold approaches on future projections of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. We show that these different methodological options result in different drought projections and that these options can be used to study different aspects of streamflow droughts.
Felix N. Matt, John F. Burkhart, and Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 179–201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-179-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-179-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Certain particles that have the ability to absorb sunlight deposit onto mountain snow via atmospheric transport mechanisms and then lower the snow's ability to reflect sunlight, which increases snowmelt. Herein we present a model aiming to simulate this effect and model the impacts on the streamflow of a southern Norwegian river. We find a significant difference in streamflow between simulations with and without the effect of light absorbing particles applied, in particular during spring melt.
Hiroyuki Hirashima, Francesco Avanzi, and Satoru Yamaguchi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5503–5515, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5503-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5503-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We reproduced the formation of capillary barriers and the development of preferential flow through snow using a multi-dimensional water transport model, which was then validated using laboratory experiments of liquid water infiltration into layered, initially dry snow. Simulation results showed that the model reconstructs some relevant features of capillary barriers and the timing of liquid water arrival at the snow base.
Claudio Bravo, Thomas Loriaux, Andrés Rivera, and Ben W. Brock
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3249–3266, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3249-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3249-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present an analysis of meteorological conditions and melt for Universidad Glacier in central Chile. This glacier is characterized by high melt rates over the ablation season, representing a mean contribution of between 10 and 13 % of the total runoff observed in the upper Tinguiririca Basin during the November 2009 to March 2010 period. Few studies have quantified the glacier melt contribution to river runoff in Chile, and this work represents a new precedent for the Andes.
Sebastian Würzer, Nander Wever, Roman Juras, Michael Lehning, and Tobias Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1741–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1741-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss a dual-domain water transport model in a physics-based snowpack model to account for preferential flow (PF) in addition to matrix flow. So far no operationally used snow model has explicitly accounted for PF. The new approach is compared to existing water transport models and validated against in situ data from sprinkling and natural rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Our work demonstrates the benefit of considering PF in modelling hourly snowpack runoff, especially during ROS conditions.
Kelly E. Gleason, Anne W. Nolin, and Travis R. Roth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1137–1147, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1137-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1137-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a coupled modeling approach used to objectively identify representative snow-monitoring locations in a forested watershed in the western Oregon Cascades mountain range. The resultant Forest Elevational Snow Transect (ForEST) represents combinations of forested and open land cover types at low, mid-, and high elevations.
Rafael Pimentel, Javier Herrero, and María José Polo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 805–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-805-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-805-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses the subgrid variability of the snow distribution in a Mediterranean region and formulates a parametric approach that includes these scale effects in the physical modelling of snow by means of accumulation–depletion curves associated with snow evolution patterns, by means of terrestrial photography. The results confirm that the use of these on a cell scale provides a solid foundation for the extension of point snow models to larger areas.
Nena Griessinger, Jan Seibert, Jan Magnusson, and Tobias Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3895–3905, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3895-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3895-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In Alpine catchments, snowmelt is a major contribution to runoff. In this study, we address the question of whether the performance of a hydrological model can be enhanced by integrating data from an external snow monitoring system. To this end, a hydrological model was driven with snowmelt input from snow models of different complexities. Best performance was obtained with a snow model, which utilized data assimilation, in particular for catchments at higher elevations and for snow-rich years.
Jacob C. Yde, Niels T. Knudsen, Jørgen P. Steffensen, Jonathan L. Carrivick, Bent Hasholt, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Christian Kronborg, Nicolaj K. Larsen, Sebastian H. Mernild, Hans Oerter, David H. Roberts, and Andrew J. Russell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1197–1210, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1197-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1197-2016, 2016
E. Cornwell, N. P. Molotch, and J. McPhee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 411–430, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-411-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-411-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a high-resolution snow water equivalent estimation for the 2001–2014 period over the extratropical Andes Cordillera of Argentina and Chile, the first of its type. The effect of elevation on accumulation is confirmed, although this is less marked in the northern portion of the domain. The 3000–4000 m a.s.l. elevation band contributes the bulk of snowmelt, but the 4000–5000 m a.s.l. band is a significant source and deserves further monitoring and research.
S. Frey and H. Holzmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4517–4530, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4517-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4517-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature index melt models often lead to snow accumulation in high mountainous elevations. We developed a simple conceptual snow redistribution model working on a commonly used grid cell size of 1x1km. That model is integrated in the hydrological rainfall runoff model COSERO. Applying the model to the catchment of Oetztaler Ache, Austria, could prevent the accumulation of snow in the upper altitudes and lead to an improved model efficiency regarding discharge and snow coverage (MODIS).
Z. H. He, F. Q. Tian, H. V. Gupta, H. C. Hu, and H. P. Hu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1807–1826, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1807-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1807-2015, 2015
S. J. Marshall
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5181–5200, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5181-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new 12-year glacier meteorological, mass balance, and run-off record from the Canadian Rocky Mountains. This provides insight into the glaciohydrological regime of the Rockies. For the period 2002-2013, about 60% of glacier meltwater run-off originated from seasonal snow and 40% was derived from glacier ice and firn. Ice and firn run-off is concentrated in the months of August and September, at which time it contributes significantly to regional-scale water resources.
J. You, D. G. Tarboton, and C. H. Luce
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5061–5076, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5061-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5061-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates three improvements to an energy balance snowmelt model aimed to represent snow surface temperature while retaining the parsimony of a single layer. Surface heat flow is modeled using a forcing term related to the vertical temperature difference and a restore term related to the temporal gradient of surface temperature. Adjustments for melt water refreezing and thermal conductivity when the snow is shallow are introduced. The model performs well at the three test sites.
Z. H. He, J. Parajka, F. Q. Tian, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4773–4789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4773-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4773-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating the snowmelt degree-day factor (DDFS) directly from MODIS snow covered area (SCA) and ground-based snow depth data without calibration. Snow density is estimated as the ratio between observed precipitation and changes in the snow volume for days with snow accumulation. DDFS values are estimated as the ratio between changes in the snow water equivalent and difference between the daily temperature and a threshold value for days with snowmelt.
K. Förster, G. Meon, T. Marke, and U. Strasser
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4703–4720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4703-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4703-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Four snow models of different complexity (temperature-index vs. energy balance models) are compared using observed and dynamically downscaled atmospheric analysis data as input. Biases in simulated precipitation lead to lower model performance. However, simulated meteorological conditions are proven to be a valuable meteorological data source as they provide model input in regions with limited availability of observations and allow the application of energy balance approaches.
N. Wever, T. Jonas, C. Fierz, and M. Lehning
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4657–4669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4657-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4657-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated a severe rain-on-snow event in the Swiss Alps in October 2011 with a detailed multi-layer snow cover model. We found a strong modulating effect of the incoming rainfall signal by the snow cover. Initially, water from both rainfall and snow melt was absorbed by the snowpack. But once the snowpack released the stored water, simulated outflow rates exceeded rainfall and snow melt rates. The simulations suggest that structural snowpack changes enhanced the outflow during this event.
K. Fujita and A. Sakai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2679–2694, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2679-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2679-2014, 2014
D. Freudiger, I. Kohn, K. Stahl, and M. Weiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2695–2709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2695-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2695-2014, 2014
C. Fu, I. Popescu, C. Wang, A. E. Mynett, and F. Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1225–1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1225-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1225-2014, 2014
M. Shrestha, L. Wang, T. Koike, H. Tsutsui, Y. Xue, and Y. Hirabayashi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 747–761, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-747-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-747-2014, 2014
G. A. Artan, J. P. Verdin, and R. Lietzow
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5127–5139, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5127-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5127-2013, 2013
M. Ménégoz, H. Gallée, and H. W. Jacobi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3921–3936, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3921-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3921-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Aizen, V. B., Aizen, E. M., and Melack, J. M.: Climate, Snow Cover, Glaciers,
and Runoff in the Tien Shan, central Asia, Am. J. Water Resour. Assoc., 31,
1113001129, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1995.tb03426.x, 1995. a
Allen, R., Pereira, L., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: Crop evapotranspiration – Guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56, Fao, Rome, https://www.fao.org/3/X0490E/X0490E00.htm (last access: 19 January 2023), 1998. a
Ambroise, B., Freer, J., and Beven, K.: Application of a generalized TOPMODEL to the small Ringelbach catchment, Vosges, France, Water Resour. Res., 32, 2147–2159, https://doi.org/10.1029/95WR03715, 1996. a
APHRODITE: APHRODITE's Water Resources, http://aphrodite.st.hirosaki-u.ac.jp/download, last access: 5 May 2021. a
Armstrong, R. L., Rittger, K., Brodzik, M. J., Racoviteanu, A., Barrett, A. P., Khalsa, S. J. S., Raup, B., Hill, A. F., Khan, A. L., Wilson, A. M.,
Kayastha, R. B., Fetterer, F., and Armstrong, B.: Runoff from glacier ice and
seasonal snow in High Asia: separating melt water sources in river flow, Reg. Environ. Change, 19, 1249–1261, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1429-0, 2019. a, b, c
Barandun, M., Fiddes, J., Scherler, M., Mathys, T., Saks, T., Petrakov, D., and Hoelzle, M.: The state and future of the cryosphere in Central Asia, Water Secur., 11, 100072, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2020.100072, 2020. a, b
Bernauer, T. and Siegfried, T.: Climate change and international water conflict in Central Asia, J. Peace Res., 49, 227–239,
https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311425843, 2012. a
Beven, K.: A manifesto for the equifinality thesis, J. Hydrol., 320, 18–36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.007, 2006. a
Beven, K. and Binley, A.: The Future Of Distributed Models – Model Calibration And Uncertainty Prediction, Hydrol. Process., 6, 279–298,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.3360060305, 1992. a
Beven, K. and Freer, J.: A dynamic TOPMODEL, Hydrol. Process., 15, 1993–2011, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.252, 2001. a
CDS: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1959 to present, https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, last access: 5 February 2021. a
Chen, Y. N., Li, W. H., Deng, H. J., Fang, G. H., and Li, Z.: Changes in Central Asia's Water Tower: Past, Present and Future, Scient. Rep., 6, 35458, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep39364, 2016. a
Copernicus: ERA5: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate, Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store (CDS), https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu (last access: 5 February 2021), 2017. a
Coxon, G., Freer, J., Lane, R., Dunne, T., Knoben, W. J. M., Howden, N. J. K., Quinn, N., Wagener, T., and Woods, R.: DECIPHeR v1: Dynamic fluxEs and
ConnectIvity for Predictions of HydRology, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2285–2306, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2285-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Duethmann, D., Peters, J., Blume, T., Vorogushyn, S., and Guentner, A.: The
value of satellite- derived snow cover images for calibrating a hydrological
model in snow- dominated catchments in Central Asia, Water Resour. Res., 50, 2002–2021, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014382, 2014. a
Engel, Z., Šobr, M., and Yerokhin, S. A.: Changes of Petrov glacier and its proglacial lake in the Akshiirak massif, central Tien Shan, since 1977,
J. Glaciol., 58, 388–398, https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG11J085, 2012. a
Farinotti, D., Usselmann, S., Huss, M., Bauder, A., and Funk, M.: Runoff
evolution in the Swiss Alps: projections for selected high-alpine catchments
based on ENSEMBLES scenarios, Hydrol. Process., 26, 1909–1924,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8276, 2012. a
Finger, D., Pellicciotti, F., Konz, M., Rimkus, S., and Burlando, P.: The
value of glacier mass balance, satellite snow cover images, and hourly
discharge for improving the performance of a physically based distributed
hydrological model, Water Resour. Res., 47, W07519, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009824, 2011. a
Finger, D., Vis, M., Huss, M., and Seibert, J.: The value of multiple data set calibration versus model complexity for improving the performance of
hydrological models in mountain catchments, Water Resour. Res., 51,
1939–1958, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015712, 2015. a
Fontaine, T., Cruickshank, T., Arnold, J., and Hotchkiss, R.: Development of a snowfall-snowmelt routine for mountainous terrain for the soil water
assessment tool (SWAT), J. Hydrol., 262, 209–223,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00029-X, 2002. a
Frans, C., Istanbulluoglu, E., Lettenmaier, D. P., Fountain, A. G., and Riedel, J.: Glacier Recession and the Response of Summer Streamflow in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1960–2099, Water Resour. Res., 54, 6202–6225, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR021764, 2018. a
Freer, J., Beven, K., and Ambroise, B.: Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in
runoff prediction and the value of data: An application of the GLUE approach,
Water Resour. Res., 32, 2161–2173, https://doi.org/10.1029/95wr03723, 1996. a
Freer, J., McMillan, H., McDonnell, J., and Beven, K.: Constraining dynamic
TOPMODEL responses for imprecise water table information using fuzzy rule
based performance measures, J. Hydrol., 291, 254–277,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.12.037, 2004. a
Freudiger, D., Kohn, I., Seibert, J., Stahl, K., and Weiler, M.: Snow
redistribution for the hydrological modeling of alpine catchments, Wiley Interdisciplin. Rev.-Water, 4, e1232, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1232, 2017. a
Frey, H., Machguth, H., Huss, M., Huggel, C., Bajracharya, S., Bolch, T., Kulkarni, A., Linsbauer, A., Salzmann, N., and Stoffel, M.: Estimating the volume of glaciers in the Himalayan–Karakoram region using different methods, The Cryosphere, 8, 2313–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, 2014. a, b
Fyffe, C., Brock, B., Kirkbride, M., Mair, D., Arnold, N., Smiraglia, C.,
Diolaiuti, G., and Diotri, F.: Do debris-covered glaciers demonstrate
distinctive hydrological behaviour compared to clean glaciers?, J. Hydrol., 570, 584–597, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.069, 2019. a
Gan, R., Luo, Y., Zuo, Q. T., and Sun, L.: Effects of projected climate change on the glacier and runoff generation in the Naryn River Basin, Central Asia, J. Hydrol., 523, 240–251, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.057, 2015. a
Gardelle, J., Berthier, E., and Arnaud, Y.: Slight mass gain of Karakoram
glaciers in the early twenty-first century, Nat. Geosci., 5, 322–325,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1450, 2012. a
Gardelle, J., Berthier, E., Arnaud, Y., and Kaab, A.: Region-wide glacier mass balances over the Pamir-Karakoram-Himalaya during 1999–2011, The Cryosphere, 7, 1263–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1263-2013, 2013. a
Gharehchahi, S., James, W. H. M., Bhardwaj, A., Jensen, J. L. R., Sam, L., Ballinger, T. J., and Butler, D. R.: Glacier Ice Thickness Estimation and Future Lake Formation in Swiss Southwestern Alps – The Upper Rhone Catchment: A VOLTA Application, Rem. Sens., 12, 22,
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12223709, 2020. a
GRDC: Data Download, https://portal.grdc.bafg.de, last access: 14 September 2018. a
Hagg, W., Mayer, C., Lambrecht, A., Kriegel, D., and Azizov, E.: Glacier
changes in the Big Naryn basin, Central Tian Shan, Global Planet. Change, 110, 40–50, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.07.010, 2013. a
Hall, D. K. and Riggs, G. A.: MODIS/Terra Snow Cover 8-Day L3 Global 500 m SIN Grid, Version 6, NSIDC [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD10A2.006, 2016. a, b
Herreid, S. and Pellicciotti, F.: The state of rock debris covering Earth's
glaciers, Nat. Geosci., 13, 621–627, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0615-0, 2020. a
Hewitt, K.: The Karakoram anomaly? Glacier expansion and the `elevation
effect', Karakoram Himalaya, Mt. Res. Dev., 25, 332–340,
https://doi.org/10.1659/0276-4741(2005)025[0332:tkagea]2.0.co;2, 2005. a
Hong, L., Stein, B., Xu, C.-Y., Huss, M., Kjetil, M., and Jain, S. K.: Integrating a glacier retreat model into a hydrological model – Case
studies of three glacierised catchments in Norway and Himalayan region,
J. Hydrol. 527, 656–667, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.05.017, 2015. a
Horton, P., Schaefli, B., and Kauzlaric, M.: Why do we have so many different
hydrological models? A review based on the case of Switzerland, WIREs Water,
9, e1574, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1574, 2022. a
Hugonnet, R., McNabb, R., Berthier, E., Menounos, B., Nuth, C., Girod, L.,
Farinotti, D., Huss, M., Dussaillant, I., Brun, F., and Kaab, A.:
Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century,
Nature, 592, 726–731, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03436-z, 2021. a
Hydro: MERIT DEM: Multi-Error-Removed Improved-Terrain DEM, http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~yamadai/MERIT_DEM, last access: 7 March 2018. a
Immerzeel, W. W., van Beek, L. P. H., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Climate Change
Will Affect the Asian Water Towers, Science, 328, 1382–1385,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1183188, 2010. a
Immerzeel, W. W., van Beek, L. P. H., Konz, M., Shrestha, A. B., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas, Climatic Change, 110, 721–736,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0143-4, 2012. a
Immerzeel, W. W., Pellicciotti, F., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Rising river flows throughout the twenty-first century in two Himalayan glacierized watersheds, Nat. Geosci., 3, 742–745, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1896, 2013. a, b
Immerzeel, W. W., Lutz, A. F., Andrade, M., Bahl, A., Biemans, H., Bolch, T.,
Hyde, S., Brumby, S., Davies, B. J., Elmore, A. C., Emmer, A., Feng, M.,
Fernandez, A., Haritashya, U., Kargel, J. S., Koppes, M., Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Kulkarni, A. V., Mayewski, P. A., Nepal, S., Pacheco, P., Painter, T. H., Pellicciotti, F., Rajaram, H., Rupper, S., Sinisalo, A., Shrestha, A. B., Viviroli, D., Wada, Y., Xiao, C., Yao, T., and Baillie, J. E. M.: Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers, Nature, 577, 364–369, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1822-y, 2020. a
Janský, B., Šobr, M., and Engel, Z.: Outburst flood hazard: Case studies from the Tien-Shan Mountains, Kyrgyzstan, Limnologica, 40, 358–364,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.limno.2009.11.013, 2010. a
Jones, D., Harrison, S., Anderson, K., Shannon, S., and Betts, R.: Rock
glaciers represent hidden water stores in the Himalaya, Sci. Total Environ., 793, 145368, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145368, 2021. a
Kaser, G., Großhauser, M., and Marzeion, B.: Contribution potential of
glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 20223–20227, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1008162107, 2010. a
Koboltschnig, G. R., Schöner, W., Zappa, M., Kroisleitner, C., and Holzmann, H.: Runoff modelling of the glacierized Alpine Upper Salzach basin (Austria): multi-criteria result validation, Hydrol. Process., 22, 3950–3964, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7112, 2008. a
Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Bierkens, M. F. P., Lutz, A. F., and Immerzeel, W. W.: Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia's
glaciers, Nature, 549, 257–260, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23878, 2017. a
Kriegel, D., Mayer, C., Hagg, W., Vorogushyn, S., Duethmann, D., Gafurov, A.,
and Farinotti, D.: Changes in glacierisation, climate and runoff in the
second half of the 20th century in the Naryn basin, Central Asia, Global Planet. Change, 110, 51–61, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.05.014, 2013. a, b, c, d, e, f
Lambert, L. and Chitrakar, B. D.: Variation of potential evapotranspiration
with elevation in Nepal, Mt. Res. Dev., 9, 145–152–50, 1989. a
Lane, R. A., Freer, J. E., Coxon, G., and Wagener, T.: Incorporating
Uncertainty Into Multiscale Parameter Regionalization to Evaluate the
Performance of Nationally Consistent Parameter Fields for a Hydrological
Model, Water Resour. Res., 57, 10, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028393, 2021. a
Lindstrom, G., Johansson, B., Persson, M., Gardelin, M., and Bergstrom, S.:
Development and test of the distributed HBV-96 hydrological model, J. Hydrol., 201, 272–288, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00041-3, 1997. a
Liu, Q. and Liu, S.: Response of glacier mass balance to climate change in the Tianshan Mountains during the second half of the twentieth century, Cllim. Dynam., 46, 303–316, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2585-2, 2016. a
Luo, Y., Arnold, J., Liu, S. Y., Wang, X. Y., and Chen, X.: Inclusion of
glacier processes for distributed hydrological modeling at basin scale with
application to a watershed in Tianshan Mountains, northwest China, J. Hydrol., 477, 72–85, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.005, 2013a. a
Luo, Y., Arnold, J., Liu, S. Y., Wang, X. Y., and Chen, X.: Inclusion of
glacier processes for distributed hydrological modeling at basin scale with
application to a watershed in Tianshan Mountains, northwest China, J.
Hydrol., 477, 72–85, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.005, 2013b. a
Lutz, A., Immerzeel, W. W., Shrestha, A. B., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Consistent increase in High Asia's runoff due to increasing glacier melt and
precipitation, Nat. Clim.Change, 4, 587–592, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2237, 2014. a
Magnusson, J., Wever, N., Essery, R., Helbig, N., Winstral, A., and Jonas, T.: Evaluating snow models with varying process representations for hydrological applications, Water Resour. Res., 51, 2707–2723,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016498, 2015. a
Malsy, M., Beek, T. A. D., and Florke, M.: Evaluation of large-scale
precipitation data sets for water resources modelling in Central Asia,
Environ. Earth Sci., 73, 787–799, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-014-3107-y, 2015. a
Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Anderson, B., Bliss, A., Champollion, N., Fujita, K., Huss, M., Immerzeel, W. W., Kraaijenbrink, P., Malles, J. H., Maussion, F., Radic, V., Rounce, D. R., Sakai, A., Shannon, S., van deWal, R., and Zekollari, H.: Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of Global Glacier Mass Change, Earths Future, 8, e2019EF001470, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001470, 2020. a
Mayr, E., Hagg, W., Mayer, C., and Braun, L.: Calibrating a spatially
distributed conceptual hydrological model using runoff, annual mass balance
and winter mass balance, J. Hydrol., 478, 40–49,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.035, 2013. a, b
McKay, M. D., Beckman, R. J., and Conover, W. J.: Comparison of Three Methods
for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output from a
Computer Code, Technometrics, 21, 239–245, 1979. a
Meier, J., Zabel, F., and Mauser, W.: A global approach to estimate irrigated
areas – a comparison between different data and statistics, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1119-2018, 2018. a
Metcalfe, P., Beven, K., and Freer, J.: Dynamic TOPMODEL: A new implementation in R and its sensitivity to time and space steps, Environ. Model. Softw., 72, 155–172, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.06.010, 2015. a
Neitsch, S. L., Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., and Williams, J. R.: Soil and
Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation, Version 2005, Grassland,
Soil and Water Research Laboratory, http://swat.tamu.edu/documentation (last access: 30 January 2019), 2005. a
Omani, N., Srinivasan, R., Karthikeyan, R., and Smith, P. K.: Hydrological
Modeling of Highly Glacierized Basins (Andes, Alps, and Central Asia), Water,
9, 11, https://doi.org/10.3390/w9020111, 2017. a, b
Oudin, L., Hervieu, F., Michel, C., Perrin, C., Andreassian, V., Anctil, F.,
and Loumagne, C.: Which potential evapotranspiration input for a lumped
rainfall-runoff model? Part 2 – Towards a simple and efficient potential
evapotranspiration model for rainfall-runoff modelling, J. Hydrol., 303, 290–306, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.08.026, 2005. a
Parajka, J. and Bloschl, G.: The value of MODIS snow cover data in validating and calibrating conceptual hydrologic models, J. Hydrol., 358, 240–258, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.06.006, 2008. a
Paterson, W.: The physics of glaciers, in: 3rd Edn., Pergamon Press, Oxford, New York, Tokyo, https://doi.org/10.1016/C2009-0-14802-X, 1994. a
Pellicciotti, F., Buergi, C., Immerzeel, W. W., Konz, M., and Shrestha, A. B.: Challenges and Uncertainties in Hydrological Modeling of Remote Hindu
Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan (HKH) Basins: Suggestions for Calibration
Strategies, Mt. Res. Dev., 32, 39–50, https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-11-00092.1, 2012. a
Peters, N., Freer, J., and Beven, K.: Modelling hydrologic responses in a
small forested catchment (Panola Mountain, Georgia, USA): a comparison of the
original and a new dynamic TOPMODEL, Hydrol. Process., 17, 345–362, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1128, 2003. a
Pieczonka, T. and Bolch, T.: Region-wide glacier mass budgets and area changes for the Central Tien Shan between 1975 and 1999 using Hexagon KH-9 imagery, Global Planet. Change, 128, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.11.014, 2015. a
Pu, Z. X., Xu, L., and Salomonson, V. V.: MODIS/Terra observed seasonal
variations of snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007gl029262, 2007. a
Radchenko, I., Dernedde, Y., Mannig, B., Frede, H.-G., and Breuer, L.: Climate Change Impacts on Runoff in the Ferghana Valley (Central Asia), Water
Resour., 44, 707–730, https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807817050098, 2017. a, b
Ragettli, S. and Pellicciotti, F.: Calibration of a physically based,
spatially distributed hydrological model in a glacierized basin: On the use of knowledge from glaciometeorological processes to constrain model
parameters, Water Resour. Res., 48, W03509, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010559, 2012. a
Rasmussen, R., Baker, B., Kochendorfer, J., Meyers, T., Landolt, S., Fischer,
A. P., Black, J., Theriault, J. M., Kucera, P., Gochis, D., Smith, C., Nitu,
R., Hall, M., Ikeda, K., and Gutmann, E.: How well are we measusing snow? The
NOAA/FAA/NCAR Winter Precipitation Test Bed, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 811–829, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00052.1, 2012. a, b
Ren, Z., Su, F., Xu, B., Xie, Y., and Kan, B.: A Coupled Glacier-Hydrology
Model and Its Application in Eastern Pamir, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 13692–13713, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028572, 2018. a
RGI: Randolph Glacier Inventory – A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines:
Version 6.0, Technical Report, Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Colorado, USA, https://doi.org/10.7265/N5-RGI-60, 2017. a
Saks, T., Pohl, E., Machguth, H., Dehecq, A., Barandun, M., Kenzhebaev, R.,
Kalashnikova, O., and Hoelzle, M.: Glacier Runoff Variation Since 1981 in the
Upper Naryn River Catchments, Central Tien Shan, Front. Environ. Sci., 9, 780466 , https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.780466, 2022. a, b
Schaner, N., Voisin, N., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: The contribution of glacier melt to streamflow, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 034029, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034029, 2012.
a
Scherler, D., Wulf, H., and Gorelick, N.: Global Assessment of Supraglacial
Debris-Cover Extents, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 11798–11805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl080158, 2018. a
Shannon, S.: sarahshannon/DECIPHeR-glacier: DECIPHeR-glacier (v1.1), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7544529, 2023. a
Sorg, A., Bolch, T., Stoffel, M., Solomina, O., and Beniston, M.: Climate
change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia), Nat. Clim.Change, 2, 725–731, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1592, 2012. a
van Tiel, M., Stahl, K., Freudiger, D., and Seibert, J.: Glacio-hydrological
model calibration and evaluation, Wiley Interdisciplin. Rev.-Water, 7, e1483, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1483, 2020. a, b, c
Wing, O. E. J., Bates, P. D., Sampson, C. C., Smith, A. M., Johnson, K. A., and Erickson, T. A.: Validation of a 30 m resolution flood hazard model of the conterminous United States, Water Resour. Res., 53, 7968–7986,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020917, 2017. a
Wortmann, M., Bolch, T., Buda, S., and Krysanova, V.: An efficient
representation of glacier dynamics in a semi-distributed hydrological model
to bridge glacier and river catchment scales, J. Hydrol., 573, 136–152, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.006, 2019. a
Xie, R. H. and Wang, A. H.: Comparison of Ten Potential Evapotranspiration
Models and Their Attribution Analyses for Ten Chinese Drainage Basins, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 37, 959–974, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-2105-0, 2020. a
Yamazaki, D., Ikeshima, D., Tawatari, R., Yamaguchi, T., O'Loughlin, F., Neal, J. C., Sampson, C. C., Kanae, S., and Bates, P. D.: A high-accuracy map of global terrain elevations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 5844–5853,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl072874, 2017. a, b
Yatagai, A., Kamiguchi, K., Arakawa, O., Hamada, A., Yasutomi, N., and Kitoh,
A.: APHRODITE Constructing a Long-Term Daily Gridded Precipitation Dataset
for Asia Based on a Dense Network of Rain Gauges, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1401–1415, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00122.1, 2012. a, b
Yilmaz, K. K., Gupta, H. V., and Wagener, T.: A process-based diagnostic
approach to model evaluation: Application to the NWS distributed hydrologic
model, Water Resour. Res., 44, W09417, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007wr006716, 2008. a
Zemp, M., Huss, M., Thibert, E., Eckert, N., McNabb, R., Huber, J., Barandun,
M., Machguth, H., Nussbaumer, S. U., Gartner-Roer, I., Thomson, L., Paul, F.,
Maussion, F., Kutuzov, S., and Cogley, J. G.: Global glacier mass changes
and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016, Nature, 568, 382–386, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1071-0, 2019. a
Zhang, L. L., Su, F. G., Yang, D. Q., Hao, Z. C., and Tong, K.: Discharge
regime and simulation for the upstream of major rivers over Tibetan Plateau,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 8500–8518, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50665, 2013. a
Zou, S., Jilili, A., Duan, W. L., De Maeyer, P., and Van de Voorde, T.: Human
and Natural Impacts on the Water Resources in the Syr Darya River Basin,
Central Asia, Sustainability, 11, 3084, https://doi.org/10.3390/su11113084, 2019. a
Short summary
Climate change poses a potential threat to water supply in glaciated river catchments. In this study, we added a snowmelt and glacier melt model to the Dynamic fluxEs and ConnectIvity for Predictions of HydRology model (DECIPHeR). The model is applied to the Naryn River catchment in central Asia and is found to reproduce past change discharge and the spatial extent of seasonal snow cover well.
Climate change poses a potential threat to water supply in glaciated river catchments. In this...
