Articles | Volume 27, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4529-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4529-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Dec 2023
Research article |
| 20 Dec 2023
| 20 Dec 2023
Comparing quantile regression forest and mixture density long short-term memory models for probabilistic post-processing of satellite precipitation-driven streamflow simulations
Yuhang Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Parkville 3010, Australia
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Bita Analui
Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, CA 92697, USA
Phu Nguyen
Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, CA 92697, USA
Soroosh Sorooshian
Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, CA 92697, USA
Kuolin Hsu
Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, CA 92697, USA
Yuxuan Wang
College of Arts and Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Song Wang, Carlos Sierra, Yiqi Luo, Jinsong Wang, Weinan Chen, Yahai Zhang, Aizhong Ye, and Shuli Niu
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-33, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-33, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen is important for plant growth and carbon uptake, which is uaually limited in nature and can constrain carbon storage and impact efforts to combat climate change. We developed a new method of combining data and models to determine if and how much an ecosystem is nitrogen limited. This new method can help determine if and to what extent an ecosystem is nitrogen-limited, providing insight into nutrient limitations on a global scale and guiding ecosystem management decisions.
Miguel Ricardo A. Hilario, Ewan Crosbie, Michael Shook, Jeffrey S. Reid, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, James Bernard B. Simpas, Luke Ziemba, Joshua P. DiGangi, Glenn S. Diskin, Phu Nguyen, F. Joseph Turk, Edward Winstead, Claire E. Robinson, Jian Wang, Jiaoshi Zhang, Yang Wang, Subin Yoon, James Flynn, Sergio L. Alvarez, Ali Behrangi, and Armin Sorooshian
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3777–3802, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study characterizes long-range transport from major Asian pollution sources into the tropical northwest Pacific and the impact of scavenging on these air masses. We combined aircraft observations, HYSPLIT trajectories, reanalysis, and satellite retrievals to reveal distinct composition and size distribution profiles associated with specific emission sources and wet scavenging. The results of this work have implications for international policymaking related to climate and health.
Ji Li, Daoxian Yuan, Jiao Liu, Yongjun Jiang, Yangbo Chen, Kuo Lin Hsu, and Soroosh Sorooshian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1505–1532, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1505-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1505-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
There are no long-term reasonable rainfall data to build a hydrological model in karst river basins to a large extent. In this paper, the PERSIANN-CCS QPEs are employed to estimate the precipitation data as an attempt in the Liujiang karst river basin, 58 270 km2, China. An improved method is proposed to revise the results of the PERSIANN-CCS QPEs. The post-processed PERSIANN-CCS QPE with a distributed hydrological model, the Liuxihe model, has a better performance in karst flood forecasting.
Phu Nguyen, Mohammed Ombadi, Soroosh Sorooshian, Kuolin Hsu, Amir AghaKouchak, Dan Braithwaite, Hamed Ashouri, and Andrea Rose Thorstensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5801–5816, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5801-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5801-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this article is to first provide an overview of the available PERSIANN precipitation retrieval algorithms and their differences. We evaluate the products over CONUS at different spatial and temporal scales using CPC data. Daily scale is the finest temporal scale used for the evaluation over CONUS. We provide a comparison of the available products at a quasi-global scale. We highlight the strengths and limitations of the PERSIANN products.
Feng Ma, Lifeng Luo, Aizhong Ye, and Qingyun Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5697–5709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5697-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5697-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting meteorological droughts more than 2 months in advance became difficult due to low predictability, leading to weak skill for hydrological droughts in wet seasons. Hydrological drought forecasts showed skills up to 3–6 lead months due to the memory of initial hydrologic conditions in dry seasons. Human activities have increased hydrological predictability during wet seasons in the MHRB. This fills gaps in understanding drought and predictability predictions in endorheic and arid basins.
Chaopeng Shen, Eric Laloy, Amin Elshorbagy, Adrian Albert, Jerad Bales, Fi-John Chang, Sangram Ganguly, Kuo-Lin Hsu, Daniel Kifer, Zheng Fang, Kuai Fang, Dongfeng Li, Xiaodong Li, and Wen-Ping Tsai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5639–5656, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5639-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5639-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, deep learning (DL) has emerged as a revolutionary tool for transforming industries and scientific disciplines. We argue that DL can offer a complementary avenue toward advancing hydrology. New methods are being developed to interpret the knowledge learned by deep networks. We argue that open competitions, integrating DL and process-based models, more data sharing, data collection from citizen scientists, and improved education will be needed to incubate advances in hydrology.
Christine A. Shields, Jonathan J. Rutz, Lai-Yung Leung, F. Martin Ralph, Michael Wehner, Brian Kawzenuk, Juan M. Lora, Elizabeth McClenny, Tashiana Osborne, Ashley E. Payne, Paul Ullrich, Alexander Gershunov, Naomi Goldenson, Bin Guan, Yun Qian, Alexandre M. Ramos, Chandan Sarangi, Scott Sellars, Irina Gorodetskaya, Karthik Kashinath, Vitaliy Kurlin, Kelly Mahoney, Grzegorz Muszynski, Roger Pierce, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Ricardo Tome, Duane Waliser, Daniel Walton, Gary Wick, Anna Wilson, David Lavers, Prabhat, Allison Collow, Harinarayan Krishnan, Gudrun Magnusdottir, and Phu Nguyen
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2455–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2455-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2455-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
ARTMIP (Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project) is a community effort with the explicit goal of understanding the uncertainties, and the implications of those uncertainties, in atmospheric river science solely due to detection algorithm. ARTMIP strives to quantify these differences and provide guidance on appropriate algorithmic choices for the science question posed. Project goals, experimental design, and preliminary results are provided.
Xiaomang Liu, Tiantian Yang, Koulin Hsu, Changming Liu, and Soroosh Sorooshian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 169–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-169-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A long-term, global, high-resolution, satellite-based precipitation estimation database (PERSIANN-CDR) was recently released. We evaluate the streamflow simulation capability of PERSIANN-CDR over two major river basins on the Tibetan Plateau. Results show that PERSIANN-CDR is a good alternative for a sparse gauge network and has the potentials for future hydrological and climate studies. The streamflow uncertainties are due to the hydrological model parameters and the length of calibration data.
Xing Yuan, Feng Ma, Linying Wang, Ziyan Zheng, Zhuguo Ma, Aizhong Ye, and Shaoming Peng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2437–2451, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2437-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2437-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system is established over the Yellow River basin to provide adaptive support in a changing environment. The system consists of downscaled NMME climate prediction, hydrological models calibrated against naturalized streamflow along the mainstream, and a post-processor to account for the human interventions implicitly. As the first paper of a two-part series, this paper investigates the hydrological predictability by using reverse ESP simulations.
Y. Y. Zhang, Q. X. Shao, A. Z. Ye, H. T. Xing, and J. Xia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 529–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-529-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-529-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an integrated water system model by coupling multiple water-related processes in hydrology, biogeochemistry, water quality and ecology, and considering the interference of human activities. The parameter sensitivity and autocalibration modules were also developed to improve the simulation efficiency. The proposed model was applied in the Shaying River catchment, which is a highly regulated and heavily polluted region in China.
W. Gong, Q. Duan, J. Li, C. Wang, Z. Di, Y. Dai, A. Ye, and C. Miao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2409–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2409-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2409-2015, 2015
R. Sultana, K.-L. Hsu, J. Li, and S. Sorooshian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3553–3570, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3553-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3553-2014, 2014
Y. Mao, A. Ye, J. Xu, F. Ma, X. Deng, C. Miao, W. Gong, and Z. Di
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-7441-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-7441-2014, 2014
Manuscript not accepted for further review
J. Li, Q. Y. Duan, W. Gong, A. Ye, Y. Dai, C. Miao, Z. Di, C. Tong, and Y. Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3279–3293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3279-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3279-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Multi-decadal fluctuations in root zone storage capacity through vegetation adaptation to hydro-climatic variability have minor effects on the hydrological response in the Neckar River basin, Germany
Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China
On the importance of plant phenology in the evaporative process of a semi-arid woodland: could it be why satellite-based evaporation estimates in the miombo differ?
Regionalization of GR4J model parameters for river flow prediction in Paraná, Brazil
Evolution of river regimes in the Mekong River basin over 8 decades and the role of dams in recent hydrological extremes
Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea
To what extent do flood-inducing storm events change future flood hazards?
When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling
Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble
Impacts of climate and land surface change on catchment evapotranspiration and runoff from 1951 to 2020 in Saxony, Germany
Quantifying and reducing flood forecast uncertainty by the CHUP-BMA method
Developing a tile drainage module for the Cold Regions Hydrological Model: lessons from a farm in southern Ontario, Canada
To bucket or not to bucket? Analyzing the performance and interpretability of hybrid hydrological models with dynamic parameterization
Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological modelling and regional climate projections
HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood
Metamorphic testing of machine learning and conceptual hydrologic models
The influence of human activities on streamflow reductions during the megadrought in central Chile
Elevational control of isotopic composition and application in understanding hydrologic processes in the mid Merced River catchment, Sierra Nevada, California, USA
Enhancing long short-term memory (LSTM)-based streamflow prediction with a spatially distributed approach
Broadleaf afforestation impacts on terrestrial hydrology insignificant compared to climate change in Great Britain
Hybrid Hydrological Modeling for Large Alpine Basins: A Distributed Approach
Impacts of spatiotemporal resolutions of precipitation on flood event simulation based on multimodel structures – a case study over the Xiang River basin in China
A network approach for multiscale catchment classification using traits
Multi-model approach in a variable spatial framework for streamflow simulation
Advancing understanding of lake–watershed hydrology: a fully coupled numerical model illustrated by Qinghai Lake
HESS Opinions: A few camels or a whole caravan?
Technical note: Testing the connection between hillslope-scale runoff fluctuations and streamflow hydrographs at the outlet of large river basins
Empirical stream thermal sensitivity cluster on the landscape according to geology and climate
Karst aquifer discharge response to rainfall interpreted as anomalous transport
Multi-scale soil moisture data and process-based modeling reveal the importance of lateral groundwater flow in a subarctic catchment
Deep learning for monthly rainfall–runoff modelling: a large-sample comparison with conceptual models across Australia
Comment on “Are soils overrated in hydrology?” by Gao et al. (2023)
On optimization of calibrations of a distributed hydrological model with spatially distributed information on snow
Toward interpretable LSTM-based modeling of hydrological systems
Vegetation Response to Climatic Variability: Implications for Root Zone Storage and Streamflow Predictions
Flow intermittence prediction using a hybrid hydrological modelling approach: influence of observed intermittence data on the training of a random forest model
What controls the tail behaviour of flood series: rainfall or runoff generation?
Seasonal prediction of end-of-dry-season watershed behavior in a highly interconnected alluvial watershed in northern California
Glaciers determine the sensitivity of hydrological processes to perturbed climate in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau
Leveraging gauge networks and strategic discharge measurements to aid the development of continuous streamflow records
On the need for physical constraints in deep learning rainfall–runoff projections under climate change: a sensitivity analysis to warming and shifts in potential evapotranspiration
Evaluation of hydrological models on small mountainous catchments: impact of the meteorological forcings
HESS Opinions: Never train an LSTM on a single basin
Projecting sediment export from two highly glacierized alpine catchments under climate change: exploring non-parametric regression as an analysis tool
Simulation-Based Inference for Parameter Estimation of Complex Watershed Simulators
A framework for parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty analysis for holistic hydrologic modeling using SWAT+
On understanding mountainous carbonate basins of the Mediterranean using parsimonious modeling solutions
Recent ground thermo-hydrological changes in a southern Tibetan endorheic catchment and implications for lake level changes
Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling
Modelling flood frequency and magnitude in a glacially conditioned, heterogeneous landscape: testing the importance of land cover and land use
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Zehua Chang, Hongkai Gao, Leilei Yong, Kang Wang, Rensheng Chen, Chuntan Han, Otgonbayar Demberel, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Shugui Hou, and Zheng Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3897–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed that considers glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrology. We utilized it to simulate future changes in cryosphere and hydrology in the Hulu catchment. Our projections showed the two glaciers will melt completely around 2050, snow cover will reduce, and permafrost will degrade. For hydrology, runoff will decrease after the glacier has melted, and permafrost degradation will increase baseflow.
Henry M. Zimba, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Kawawa E. Banda, Petra Hulsman, Nick van de Giesen, Imasiku A. Nyambe, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3633–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The fall and flushing of new leaves in the miombo woodlands co-occur in the dry season before the commencement of seasonal rainfall. The miombo species are also said to have access to soil moisture in deep soils, including groundwater in the dry season. Satellite-based evaporation estimates, temporal trends, and magnitudes differ the most in the dry season, most likely due to inadequate understanding and representation of the highlighted miombo species attributes in simulations.
Louise Akemi Kuana, Arlan Scortegagna Almeida, Emílio Graciliano Ferreira Mercuri, and Steffen Manfred Noe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3367–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The authors compared regionalization methods for river flow prediction in 126 catchments from the south of Brazil, a region with humid subtropical and hot temperate climate. The regionalization method based on physiographic–climatic similarity had the best performance for predicting daily and Q95 reference flow. We showed that basins without flow monitoring can have a good approximation of streamflow using machine learning and physiographic–climatic information as inputs.
Huy Dang and Yadu Pokhrel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3347–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By examining basin-wide simulations of a river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we present evidence that climate variation was a key driver of hydrologic variabilities in the Mekong River basin (MRB) over the long term; however, dams have largely altered the seasonality of the Mekong’s flow regime and annual flooding patterns in major downstream areas in recent years. These findings could help us rethink the planning of future dams and water resource management in the MRB.
Yongshin Lee, Francesca Pianosi, Andres Peñuela, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3261–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following recent advancements in weather prediction technology, we explored how seasonal weather forecasts (1 or more months ahead) could benefit practical water management in South Korea. Our findings highlight that using seasonal weather forecasts for predicting flow patterns 1 to 3 months ahead is effective, especially during dry years. This suggest that seasonal weather forecasts can be helpful in improving the management of water resources.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3161–3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding worsens due to climate change, with river dynamics being a key in local flood control. Predicting post-storm geomorphic changes is challenging. Using self-organizing maps and machine learning, this study forecasts post-storm alterations in stage–discharge relationships across 3101 US stream gages. The provided framework can aid in updating hazard assessments by identifying rivers prone to change, integrating channel adjustments into flood hazard assessment.
Yalan Song, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark, Dapeng Feng, Kathryn Lawson, Kamlesh Sawadekar, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3051–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Differentiable models (DMs) integrate neural networks and physical equations for accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge discovery. We developed an adjoint-based DM for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for hydrological modeling, reducing distorted fluxes and physical parameters from errors in models that use explicit and operation-splitting schemes. With a better numerical scheme and improved structure, the adjoint-based DM matches or surpasses long short-term memory (LSTM) performance.
Florian Willkofer, Raul R. Wood, and Ralf Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Severe flood events pose a threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates of the dynamics of these events in the future due to climate change are rarely available. Hence, this study uses data from a regional climate model, SMILE, to drive a high-resolution hydrological model for 98 catchments of hydrological Bavaria and exploits the large database to derive robust values for the 100-year flood events. Results indicate an increase in frequency and intensity for most catchments in the future.
Maik Renner and Corina Hauffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2849–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate and land surface changes influence the partitioning of water balance components decisively. Their impact is quantified for 71 catchments in Saxony. Germany. Distinct signatures in the joint water and energy budgets are found: (i) past forest dieback caused a decrease in and subsequent recovery of evapotranspiration in the affected regions, and (ii) the recent shift towards higher aridity imposed a large decline in runoff that has not been seen in the observation records before.
Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2809–2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasting facilitates reliable flood forecasting and warning. This study couples the copula-based hydrologic uncertainty processor (CHUP) with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and proposes the novel CHUP-BMA method of reducing inflow forecasting uncertainty of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The CHUP-BMA avoids the normal distribution assumption in the HUP-BMA and considers the constraint of initial conditions, which can improve the deterministic and probabilistic forecast performance.
Mazda Kompanizare, Diogo Costa, Merrin L. Macrae, John W. Pomeroy, and Richard M. Petrone
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2785–2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new agricultural tile drainage module was developed in the Cold Region Hydrological Model platform. Tile flow and water levels are simulated by considering the effect of capillary fringe thickness, drainable water and seasonal regional groundwater dynamics. The model was applied to a small well-instrumented farm in southern Ontario, Canada, where there are concerns about the impacts of agricultural drainage into Lake Erie.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2705–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hybrid models promise to merge the performance of deep learning methods with the interpretability of process-based models. One hybrid approach is the dynamic parameterization of conceptual models using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We explored this method to evaluate the effect of the flexibility given by LSTMs on the process-based part.
Adam Griffin, Alison L. Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Widespread flooding is a major problem in the UK and is greatly affected by climate change and land-use change. To look at how widespread flooding changes in the future, climate model data (UKCP18) were used with a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) across the UK, and 14 400 events were identified between two time slices: 1980–2010 and 2050–2080. There was a strong increase in the number of winter events in the future time slice and in the peak return periods.
Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually
impossibleyet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.
Peter Reichert, Kai Ma, Marvin Höge, Fabrizio Fenicia, Marco Baity-Jesi, Dapeng Feng, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2505–2529, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We compared the predicted change in catchment outlet discharge to precipitation and temperature change for conceptual and machine learning hydrological models. We found that machine learning models, despite providing excellent fit and prediction capabilities, can be unreliable regarding the prediction of the effect of temperature change for low-elevation catchments. This indicates the need for caution when applying them for the prediction of the effect of climate change.
Nicolás Álamos, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Ariel Muñoz, and Álvaro González-Reyes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2483–2503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we assess the effects of climate and water use on streamflow reductions and drought intensification during the last 3 decades in central Chile. We address this by contrasting streamflow observations with near-natural streamflow simulations. We conclude that while the lack of precipitation dominates streamflow reductions in the megadrought, water uses have not diminished during this time, causing a worsening of the hydrological drought conditions and maladaptation conditions.
Fengjing Liu, Martha H. Conklin, and Glenn D. Shaw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2239–2258, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain snowpack has been declining and more precipitation falls as rain than snow. Using stable isotopes, we found flows and flow duration in Yosemite Creek are most sensitive to climate warming due to strong evaporation of waterfalls, potentially lengthening the dry-up period of waterfalls in summer and negatively affecting tourism. Groundwater recharge in Yosemite Valley is primarily from the upper snow–rain transition (2000–2500 m) and very vulnerable to a reduction in the snow–rain ratio.
Qiutong Yu, Bryan A. Tolson, Hongren Shen, Ming Han, Juliane Mai, and Jimmy Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2107–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
It is challenging to incorporate input variables' spatial distribution information when implementing long short-term memory (LSTM) models for streamflow prediction. This work presents a novel hybrid modelling approach to predict streamflow while accounting for spatial variability. We evaluated the performance against lumped LSTM predictions in 224 basins across the Great Lakes region in North America. This approach shows promise for predicting streamflow in large, ungauged basin.
Marcus Buechel, Louise Slater, and Simon Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2081–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation has been proposed internationally, but the hydrological implications of such large increases in the spatial extent of woodland are not fully understood. In this study, we use a land surface model to simulate hydrology across Great Britain with realistic afforestation scenarios and potential climate changes. Countrywide afforestation minimally influences hydrology, when compared to climate change, and reduces low streamflow whilst not lowering the highest flows.
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-54, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-54, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper developed hybrid distributed hydrological models by employing a distributed model as the backbone, and utilizing deep learning to parameterize and replace internal modules. The main contribution is to provide a high-performance tool enriched with explicit hydrological knowledge for hydrological prediction and improves understanding about the hydrological sensitivities to climate change in large alpine basins.
Qian Zhu, Xiaodong Qin, Dongyang Zhou, Tiantian Yang, and Xinyi Song
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1665–1686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1665-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1665-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Input data, model and calibration strategy can affect the accuracy of flood event simulation and prediction. Satellite-based precipitation with different spatiotemporal resolutions is an important input source. Data-driven models are sometimes proven to be more accurate than hydrological models. Event-based calibration and conventional strategy are two options adopted for flood simulation. This study targets the three concerns for accurate flood event simulation and prediction.
Fabio Ciulla and Charuleka Varadharajan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1617–1651, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1617-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method based on network science for unsupervised classification of large datasets and apply it to classify 9067 US catchments and 274 biophysical traits at multiple scales. We find that our trait-based approach produces catchment classes with distinct streamflow behavior and that spatial patterns emerge amongst pristine and human-impacted catchments. This method can be widely used beyond hydrology to identify patterns, reduce trait redundancy, and select representative sites.
Cyril Thébault, Charles Perrin, Vazken Andréassian, Guillaume Thirel, Sébastien Legrand, and Olivier Delaigue
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1539–1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow forecasting is useful for many applications, ranging from population safety (e.g. floods) to water resource management (e.g. agriculture or hydropower). To this end, hydrological models must be optimized. However, a model is inherently wrong. This study aims to analyse the contribution of a multi-model approach within a variable spatial framework to improve streamflow simulations. The underlying idea is to take advantage of the strength of each modelling framework tested.
Lele Shu, Xiaodong Li, Yan Chang, Xianhong Meng, Hao Chen, Yuan Qi, Hongwei Wang, Zhaoguo Li, and Shihua Lyu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1477–1491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1477-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1477-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new model to better understand how water moves in a lake basin. Our model improves upon previous methods by accurately capturing the complexity of water movement, both on the surface and subsurface. Our model, tested using data from China's Qinghai Lake, accurately replicates complex water movements and identifies contributing factors of the lake's water balance. The findings provide a robust tool for predicting hydrological processes, aiding water resource planning.
Franziska Maria Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-864, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-864, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the catchment forcing data provided in large-sample datasets, namely the Caravan dataset and three of the original CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB). We show that the differences affect hydrological model performance and that the data quality in the Caravan dataset is lower than the one in the CAMELS datasets, both for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. We want to raise awareness of the lower data quality in Caravan and we suggest possible improvements for the Caravan dataset.
Ricardo Mantilla, Morgan Fonley, and Nicolás Velásquez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1373–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrologists strive to “Be right for the right reasons” when modeling the hydrologic cycle; however, the datasets available to validate hydrological models are sparse, and in many cases, they comprise streamflow observations at the outlets of large catchments. In this work, we show that matching streamflow observations at the outlet of a large basin is not a reliable indicator of a correct description of the small-scale runoff processes.
Lillian M. McGill, E. Ashley Steel, and Aimee H. Fullerton
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1351–1371, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1351-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1351-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the relationship between air and river temperatures in Washington's Snoqualmie and Wenatchee basins. We used classification and regression approaches to show that the sensitivity of river temperature to air temperature is variable across basins and controlled largely by geology and snowmelt. Findings can be used to inform strategies for river basin restoration and conservation, such as identifying climate-insensitive areas of the basin that should be preserved and protected.
Dan Elhanati, Nadine Goeppert, and Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-46, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
A continuous time random walk framework was developed to allow modeling of a karst aquifer discharge response to measured rainfall. The application of the numerical model yielded robust fits between modeled and measured discharge values, especially for the distinctive long tails found during recession times. The findings shed light on the interplay of slow and fast flow in the karst system, and establish the application of the model for simulating flow and transport in karst systems.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Kersti Leppä, Hannu Marttila, Pertti Ala-aho, Giulia Mazzotti, Terhikki Manninen, Mika Korkiakoski, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, and Samuli Launiainen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-81, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We used hydrological models, field measurements and satellite-based data to study the soil moisture dynamics in a subarctic catchment. The role of groundwater was studied with different ways to model the groundwater dynamics, and via comparisons to the observational data. The choice of groundwater model was shown to have a strong impact, and representation of lateral flow was important to capture wet soil conditions. Our results provide insights for ecohydrological studies in boreal regions.
Stephanie R. Clark, Julien Lerat, Jean-Michel Perraud, and Peter Fitch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1191–1213, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To determine if deep learning models are in general a viable alternative to traditional hydrologic modelling techniques in Australian catchments, a comparison of river–runoff predictions is made between traditional conceptual models and deep learning models in almost 500 catchments spread over the continent. It is found that the deep learning models match or outperform the traditional models in over two-thirds of the river catchments, indicating feasibility in a wide variety of conditions.
Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-629, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-629, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Gao et al. (2023) question the importance of soil in hydrology, sparking debate. We acknowledge some valid points but critique their broad, unsubstantiated views on soil's role. Our response highlights three key areas: (1) the false divide between ecosystem-centric and soil-centric approaches, (2) the vital yet varied impact of soil properties, and (3) the call for a scale-aware framework. We aim to unify these perspectives, enhancing hydrology's comprehensive understanding.
Dipti Tiwari, Mélanie Trudel, and Robert Leconte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1127–1146, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1127-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Calibrating hydrological models with multi-objective functions enhances model robustness. By using spatially distributed snow information in the calibration, the model performance can be enhanced without compromising the outputs. In this study the HYDROTEL model was calibrated in seven different experiments, incorporating the SPAEF (spatial efficiency) metric alongside Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE), with the aim of identifying the optimal calibration strategy.
Luis Andres De la Fuente, Mohammad Reza Ehsani, Hoshin Vijai Gupta, and Laura Elizabeth Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 945–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-945-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-945-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long short-term memory (LSTM) is a widely used machine-learning model in hydrology, but it is difficult to extract knowledge from it. We propose HydroLSTM, which represents processes like a hydrological reservoir. Models based on HydroLSTM perform similarly to LSTM while requiring fewer cell states. The learned parameters are informative about the dominant hydrology of a catchment. Our results show how parsimony and hydrological knowledge extraction can be achieved by using the new structure.
Nienke Tessa Tempel, Laurene Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-115, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities thus on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Alexandre Devers, and Jean-Philippe Vidal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 851–871, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling flow intermittence is essential for predicting the future evolution of drying in river networks and better understanding the ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, modelling flow intermittence is challenging, and observed data on temporary rivers are scarce. This study presents a new modelling approach for predicting flow intermittence in river networks and shows that combining different sources of observed data reduces the model uncertainty.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Björn Guse, Viet Dung Nguyen, Xiaoxiang Guan, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 833–850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In some rivers, the occurrence of extreme flood events is more likely than in other rivers – they have heavy-tailed distributions. We find that threshold processes in the runoff generation lead to such a relatively high occurrence probability of extremes. Further, we find that beyond a certain return period, i.e. for rare events, rainfall is often the dominant control compared to runoff generation. Our results can help to improve the estimation of the occurrence probability of extreme floods.
Claire Kouba and Thomas Harter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 691–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-691-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In some watersheds, the severity of the dry season has a large impact on aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we design a way to predict, 5–6 months in advance, how severe the dry season will be in a rural watershed in northern California. This early warning can support seasonal adaptive management. To predict these two values, we assess data about snow, rain, groundwater, and river flows. We find that maximum snowpack and total wet season rainfall best predict dry season severity.
Yi Nan and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 669–689, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-669-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-669-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper utilized a tracer-aided model validated by multiple datasets in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau to analyze hydrological sensitivity to climate change. The spatial pattern of the local hydrological sensitivities and the influence factors were analyzed in particular. The main finding of this paper is that the local hydrological sensitivity in mountainous basins is determined by the relationship between the glacier area ratio and the mean annual precipitation.
Michael J. Vlah, Matthew R. V. Ross, Spencer Rhea, and Emily S. Bernhardt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 545–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-545-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Virtual stream gauging enables continuous streamflow estimation where a gauge might be difficult or impractical to install. We reconstructed flow at 27 gauges of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), informing ~199 site-months of missing data in the official record and improving that accuracy of official estimates at 11 sites. This study shows that machine learning, but also routine regression methods, can be used to supplement existing gauge networks and reduce monitoring costs.
Sungwook Wi and Scott Steinschneider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 479–503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate whether deep learning (DL) models can produce physically plausible streamflow projections under climate change. We address this question by focusing on modeled responses to increases in temperature and potential evapotranspiration and by employing three DL and three process-based hydrological models. The results suggest that physical constraints regarding model architecture and input are necessary to promote the physical realism of DL hydrological projections under climate change.
Guillaume Evin, Matthieu Le Lay, Catherine Fouchier, David Penot, Francois Colleoni, Alexandre Mas, Pierre-André Garambois, and Olivier Laurantin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 261–281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling of mountainous catchments is challenging for many reasons, the main one being the temporal and spatial representation of precipitation forcings. This study presents an evaluation of the hydrological modelling of 55 small mountainous catchments of the northern French Alps, focusing on the influence of the type of precipitation reanalyses used as inputs. These evaluations emphasize the added value of radar measurements, in particular for the reproduction of flood events.
Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-275, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-275, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, a special type of neural network architecture became increasingly popular in hydrology literature. However, in most applications, this model was applied as a one-to-one replacement for hydrology models without adapting or rethinking the experimental setup. In this opinion paper, we show how this is almost always a bad decision and how using these kinds of models require the use of large-sample hydrology datasets.
Lena Katharina Schmidt, Till Francke, Peter Martin Grosse, and Axel Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 139–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How suspended sediment export from glacierized high-alpine areas responds to future climate change is hardly assessable as many interacting processes are involved, and appropriate physical models are lacking. We present the first study, to our knowledge, exploring machine learning to project sediment export until 2100 in two high-alpine catchments. We find that uncertainties due to methodological limitations are small until 2070. Negative trends imply that peak sediment may have already passed.
Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-264, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-264, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale hydrologic a needed tool to explore complex watershed processes and how they may evolve under a changing climate. However, calibrating them can be difficult because they are costly to run and have many unknown parameters. We implement a state-of-the-art approach to model calibration with a set of experiments in the Upper Colorado River Basin.
Salam A. Abbas, Ryan T. Bailey, Jeremy T. White, Jeffrey G. Arnold, Michael J. White, Natalja Čerkasova, and Jungang Gao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 21–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-21-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-21-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research highlights.
1. Implemented groundwater module (gwflow) into SWAT+ for four watersheds with different unique hydrologic features across the United States.
2. Presented methods for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation for coupled models.
3. Sensitivity analysis for streamflow and groundwater head conducted using Morris method.
4. Uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation performed using an iterative ensemble smoother within the PEST framework.
Shima Azimi, Christian Massari, Giuseppe Formetta, Silvia Barbetta, Alberto Tazioli, Davide Fronzi, Sara Modanesi, Angelica Tarpanelli, and Riccardo Rigon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4485–4503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the water budget of nested karst catchments using simple methods and modeling. By utilizing the available data on precipitation and discharge, we were able to determine the response lag-time by adopting new techniques. Additionally, we modeled snow cover dynamics and evapotranspiration with the use of Earth observations, providing a concise overview of the water budget for the basin and its subbasins. We have made the data, models, and workflows accessible for further study.
Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Michele Magni, Fanny Brun, Joel Fiddes, Yanbin Lei, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Tamara Mathys, Moritz Langer, Simon Allen, and Walter W. Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Across the Tibetan Plateau, many large lakes have been changing level during the last decades as a response to climate change. In high-mountain environments, water fluxes from the land to the lakes are linked to the ground temperature of the land and to the energy fluxes between the ground and the atmosphere, which are modified by climate change. With a numerical model, we test how these water and energy fluxes have changed over the last decades and how they influence the lake level variations.
Diego Araya, Pablo A. Mendoza, Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, and James McPhee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Dynamical systems are used by many agencies worldwide to produce seasonal streamflow forecasts, which are critical for decision-making. Such systems rely on hydrology models, which contain parameters that are typically estimated using a target performance metric (i.e., objective function). This study explores the effects of this decision across mountainous basins in Chile, illustrating tradeoffs between seasonal forecast quality and the models' capability to simulate streamflow characteristics.
Pamela E. Tetford and Joseph R. Desloges
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3977–3998, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3977-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3977-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
An efficient regional flood frequency model relates drainage area to discharge, with a major assumption of similar basin conditions. In a landscape with variable glacial deposits and land use, we characterize varying hydrological function using 28 explanatory variables. We demonstrate that (1) a heterogeneous landscape requires objective model selection criteria to optimize the fit of flow data, and (2) incorporating land use as a predictor variable improves the drainage area to discharge model.
Cited articles
Althoff, D., Rodrigues, L. N., and Bazame, H. C.: Uncertainty quantification for hydrological models based on neural networks: the dropout ensemble, Stoch. Env. Res. Risk A., 35, 1051-1067, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-01980-8, 2021.
Bellier, J., Zin, I., and Bontron, G.: Generating coherent ensemble forecasts after hydrological postprocessing: Adaptations of ECC-based methods, Water Resour. Res., 54, 5741–5762, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022601, 2018.
Beven, K.: Changing ideas in hydrology – the case of physically-based models, J. Hydrol., 105, 157–172, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(90)90161-P, 1989.
Bogner, K. and Pappenberger, F.: Multiscale error analysis, correction, and predictive uncertainty estimation in a flood forecasting system, Water Resour. Res., 47, e2010WR009137, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009137, 2011.
Bormann, K. J., Evans, J. P., and McCabe, M. F.: Constraining snowmelt in a temperature-index model using simulated snow densities, J. Hydrol., 517, 652–667, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.073, 2014.
Bröcker, J.: Evaluating raw ensembles with the continuous ranked probability score, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 1611–1617, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1891, 2012.
Brunner, M. I., Hingray, B., Zappa, M., and Favre, A. C.: Future trends in the interdependence between flood peaks and volumes: Hydro-climatological drivers and uncertainty, Water Resour. Res., 55, 4745–4759, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024701, 2019.
Chawanda, C. J., George, C., Thiery, W., Griensven, A. V., Tech, J., Arnold, J., and Srinivasan, R.: User-friendly workflows for catchment modelling: Towards reproducible SWAT+ model studies, Environ. Modell. Softw., 134, 104812, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104812, 2020.
Chen, H., Yong, B., Shen, Y., Liu, J., Hong, Y., and Zhang, J.: Comparison analysis of six purely satellite-derived global precipitation estimates, J. Hydrol., 581, 124376, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124376, 2020.
Chinese Academy of Sciences Computer Network Information Center (CAS-CNIC): The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (NASA SRTM): Digital elevation model data republication, GSCLOUD [data set], http://www.gscloud.cn, last access: 18 December 2023.
Chinese Academy of Sciences Resource and Environmental Science Data Center (CAS-RESDC): Landuse dataset in China (1980–2015), National Tibetan Plateau/Third Pole Environment Data Center [data set], http://data.tpdc.ac.cn/en/data/a75843b4-6591-4a69-a5e4-6f94099ddc2d (last access: 18 December 2023), 2019.
Clark, M. P., Nijssen, B., Lundquist, J. D., Kavetski, D., Rupp, D. E., Woods, R. A., Freer, J. E., Gutmann, E. D., Wood, A. W., Brekke, L. D., Arnold, J. R., Gochis, D. J., and Rasmussen, R. M.: A unified approach for process-based hydrologic modelling: 1. Modelling concept, Water Resour. Res., 51, 2498–2514, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017198, 2015.
Corzo Perez, G. A., van Huijgevoort, M. H. J., Voß, F., and van Lanen, H. A. J.: On the spatio-temporal analysis of hydrological droughts from global hydrological models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2963–2978, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2963-2011, 2011.
Cunha, L. K., Mandapaka, P. V., Krajewski, W. F., Mantilla, R., and Bradley, A. A.: Impact of radar-rainfall error structure on estimated flood magnitude across scales: An investigation based on a parsimonious distributed hydrological model, Water Resour. Res., 48, W10515, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012138, 2012.
Dembélé, M., Hrachowitz, M., Savenije, H. H. G., Mariéthoz, G., and Schaefli, B.: Improving the Predictive Skill of a Distributed Hydrological Model by Calibration on Spatial Patterns With Multiple Satellite Data Sets, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR026085, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026085, 2020.
Dong, J., Crow, W. T., and Reichle, R.: Improving Rain/No-Rain Detection Skill by Merging Precipitation Estimates from Different Sources, J. Hydrometeorol., 21, 2419–2429, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0097.1, 2020.
Du, C., Ye, A., Gan, Y., You, J., Duan, Q., Ma, F., and Hou, J.: Drainage network extraction from a high-resolution DEM using parallel programming in the .NET Framework, J. Hydrol., 555, 506–517, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.10.034, 2017.
Evin, G., Lafaysse, M., Taillardat, M., and Zamo, M.: Calibrated ensemble forecasts of the height of new snow using quantile regression forests and ensemble model output statistics, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 467–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-467-2021, 2021.
Falck, A. S., Maggioni, V., Tomasella, J., Vila, D. A., and Diniz, F. L. R.: Propagation of satellite precipitation uncertainties through a distributed hydrologic model: A case study in the Tocantins–Araguaia basin in Brazil, J. Hydrol., 527, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.05.042, 2015.
Fang, K., Kifer, D., Lawson, K., Feng, D., and Shen, C.: The data synergy effects of time-series deep learning models in hydrology, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2021WR029583, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR029583, 2022.
Fischer, G., Nachtergaele, F., Prieler, S., van Velthuizen, H. T., Verelst, L., and Wiberg, D.: Global Agroecological Zones Assessment for Agriculture (GAEZ 2008), IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria and FAO, Rome, Italy, [data set], http://www.fao.org/soils-portal/soil-survey/soil-maps-and-databases/harmonized-world-soil-database-v12/en/ (last access: 18 December 2023), 2008.
Frame, J. M., Kratzert, F., Raney, A., Rahman, M., Salas, F. R., and Nearing, G. S.: Post-Processing the National Water Model with Long Short-Term Memory Networks for Streamflow Predictions and Model Diagnostics, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 57, 885–905, https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12964, 2021.
Ghiggi, G., Humphrey, V., Seneviratne, S. I., and Gudmundsson, L.: G-RUN ENSEMBLE: A Multi-Forcing Observation-Based Global Runoff Reanalysis, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR028787, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028787, 2021.
Gneiting, T. and Ranjan, R.: Comparing density forecasts using threshold-and quantile-weighted scoring rules, J. Bus. Econ. Stat., 29, 411–422, https://doi.org/10.1198/jbes.2010.08110, 2011.
Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F., and Raftery, A. E.: Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B, 69, 243–268, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2007.00587.x, 2007.
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F.: Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003, 2009.
Gou, J., Miao, C., Duan, Q., Tang, Q., Di, Z., Liao, W., Wu, J., and Zhou, R.: Sensitivity Analysis-Based Automatic Parameter Calibration of the VIC Model for Streamflow Simulations Over China, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR025968, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025968, 2020.
Gou, J., Miao, C., Samaniego, L., Xiao, M., Wu, J., and Guo, X.: CNRD v1.0: A High-Quality Natural Runoff Dataset for Hydrological and Climate Studies in China, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, E929–E947, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0094.1, 2021.
Herrera, P. A., Marazuela, M. A., and Hofmann, T.: Parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis in hydrological modelling, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Water, 9, e1569, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1569, 2022.
Honti, M., Scheidegger, A., and Stamm, C.: The importance of hydrological uncertainty assessment methods in climate change impact studies, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3301–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3301-2014, 2014.
Hou, A. Y., Kakar, R. K., Neeck, S., AA, A., Kummerow, C. D., Kojima, M., Oki, R., Nakamura, K., and Iguchi, T.: The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 701–722, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00164.1, 2013.
Huffman, G. J., Stocker, E. F., Bolvin, D. T., Nelkin, E. J., and Tan, J.: GPM IMERG Final Precipitation L3 1 day 0.1 degree x 0.1 degree V06, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), Greenbelt, MD [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/GPM/IMERGDF/DAY/06, 2019.
Huffman, G. J., Bolvin, D. T., Nelkin, E. J., and Tan, J.: Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) technical documentation, https://gpm.nasa.gov/resources/documents/IMERG-V06-Technical-Documentation (last access: 18 December 2023), 2020.
Jajarmizadeh, M., Harun, S., and Salarpour, M.: A review on theoretical consideration and types of models in hydrology, Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 5, 249–261, https://doi.org/10.3923/jest.2012.249.261, 2012.
Jiang, L. and Bauer-Gottwein, P.: How do GPM IMERG precipitation estimates perform as hydrological model forcing? Evaluation for 300 catchments across Mainland China, J. Hydrol., 572, 486–500, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.042, 2019.
Jiang, S., Zheng, Y., Wang, C., and Babovic, V.: Uncovering Flooding Mechanisms Across the Contiguous United States Through Interpretive Deep Learning on Representative Catchments, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2021WR030185, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR030185, 2022.
Jnelson18: jnelson18/pyquantrf: DOI release (v0.0.3doi), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5815105, 2022.
Jolliffe, I. T. and Stephenson, D. B.: Forecast verification: a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science, John Wiley & Sons, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119960003, 2012.
Kasraei, B., Heung, B., Saurette, D. D., Schmidt, M. G., Bulmer, C. E., and Bethel, W.: Quantile regression as a generic approach for estimating uncertainty of digital soil maps produced from machine-learning, Environ. Modell. Softw., 144, 105139, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105139, 2021.
Khakbaz, B., Imam, B., Hsu, K., and Sorooshian, S.: From lumped to distributed via semi-distributed: Calibration strategies for semi-distributed hydrologic models, J. Hydrol., 418, 61–77, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.02.021, 2012.
Kling, H., Fuchs, M., and Paulin, M.: Runoff conditions in the upper Danube basin under an ensemble of climate change scenarios, J. Hydrol., 424, 264–277, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.01.011, 2012.
Klotz, D., Kratzert, F., Gauch, M., Keefe Sampson, A., Brandstetter, J., Klambauer, G., Hochreiter, S., and Nearing, G.: Uncertainty estimation with deep learning for rainfall–runoff modeling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1673–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1673-2022, 2022.
Kobold, M. and Sušelj, K.: Precipitation forecasts and their uncertainty as input into hydrological models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 322–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-9-322-2005, 2005.
Kratzert, F., Klotz, D., Brenner, C., Schulz, K., and Herrnegger, M.: Rainfall–runoff modelling using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6005–6022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6005-2018, 2018.
Kratzert, F., Klotz, D., Shalev, G., Klambauer, G., Hochreiter, S., and Nearing, G.: Towards learning universal, regional, and local hydrological behaviors via machine learning applied to large-sample datasets, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5089–5110, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5089-2019, 2019.
Kratzert, F., Klotz, D., Hochreiter, S., and Nearing, G. S.: A note on leveraging synergy in multiple meteorological data sets with deep learning for rainfall–runoff modeling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2685–2703, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2685-2021, 2021.
Kratzert, F., Gauch, M., Nearing, G., and Klotz, D.: NeuralHydrology – A Python library for Deep Learning research in hydrology, Journal of Open Source Software, 7, 4050, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.04050, 2022a.
Kratzert, F., Gauch, M., Nearing, G., and Klotz, D.: NeuralHydrology – A Python library for Deep Learning research in hydrology (v.1.2.3), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6326394, 2022b.
Kratzert, F., Nearing, G., Addor, N., Erickson, T., Gauch, M., Gilon, O., Gudmundsson, L., Hassidim, A., Klotz, D., and Nevo, S.: Caravan – A global community dataset for large-sample hydrology, Sci. Data, 10, 61, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-01975-w, 2023.
Kubota, T., Shige, S., Hashizume, H., Aonashi, K., Takahashi, N., Seto, S., Hirose, M., Takayabu, Y. N., Ushio, T., and Nakagawa, K.: Global precipitation map using satellite-borne microwave radiometers by the GSMaP project: Production and validation, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 45, 2259–2275, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2007.895337, 2007.
Kubota, T., Aonashi, K., Ushio, T., Shige, S., Takayabu, Y. N., Kachi, M., Arai, Y., Tashima, T., Masaki, T., and Kawamoto, N.: Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) products in the GPM era, Satellite Precipitation Measurement, 1, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-24568-9_20, 2020.
Kubota, T., Aonashi, K., Ushio, T., Shige, S., Takayabu, Y. N., Kachi, M., Arai, Y., Tashima, T., Masaki, T., and Kawamoto, N.: Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) products, JAXA Global Rainfall Watch [data set], https://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/GSMaP/index.htm (last access: 18 December 2023), 2023.
Lees, T., Buechel, M., Anderson, B., Slater, L., Reece, S., Coxon, G., and Dadson, S. J.: Benchmarking data-driven rainfall–runoff models in Great Britain: a comparison of long short-term memory (LSTM)-based models with four lumped conceptual models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5517–5534, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5517-2021, 2021.
Li, A. H. and Martin, A.: Forest-type regression with general losses and robust forest, Proceedings of the 34th International Conference on Machine Learning, 70, 2091–2100, 2017.
Li, D., Marshall, L., Liang, Z., and Sharma, A.: Hydrologic multi-model ensemble predictions using variational Bayesian deep learning, J. Hydrol., 604, 127221, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127221, 2022.
Li, M., Wang, Q. J., Bennett, J. C., and Robertson, D. E.: A strategy to overcome adverse effects of autoregressive updating of streamflow forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1-2015, 2015.
Li, M., Wang, Q. J., Bennett, J. C., and Robertson, D. E.: Error reduction and representation in stages (ERRIS) in hydrological modelling for ensemble streamflow forecasting, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3561–3579, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3561-2016, 2016.
Li, W., Duan, Q., Miao, C., Ye, A., Gong, W., and Di, Z.: A review on statistical postprocessing methods for hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 4, e1246, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1246, 2017.
Mai, J., Craig, J. R., Tolson, B. A., and Arsenault, R.: The sensitivity of simulated streamflow to individual hydrologic processes across North America, Nat. Commun., 13, 455, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28010-7, 2022a.
Mai, J., Shen, H., Tolson, B. A., Gaborit, É., Arsenault, R., Craig, J. R., Fortin, V., Fry, L. M., Gauch, M., Klotz, D., Kratzert, F., O'Brien, N., Princz, D. G., Rasiya Koya, S., Roy, T., Seglenieks, F., Shrestha, N. K., Temgoua, A. G. T., Vionnet, V., and Waddell, J. W.: The Great Lakes Runoff Intercomparison Project Phase 4: the Great Lakes (GRIP-GL), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3537–3572, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3537-2022, 2022b.
Meinshausen, N. and Ridgeway, G.: Quantile regression forests, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 7, 983–999, https://www.jmlr.org/papers/volume7/meinshausen06a/meinshausen06a.pdf (last access: 18 December 2023), 2006.
Miao, C., Gou, J., Fu, B., Tang, Q., Duan, Q., Chen, Z., Lei, H., Chen, J., Guo, J., and Borthwick, A. G.: High-quality reconstruction of China's natural streamflow, Sci. Bull., 67, 547–556, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.09.022, 2022.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Nasreen, S., Součková, M., Vargas Godoy, M. R., Singh, U., Markonis, Y., Kumar, R., Rakovec, O., and Hanel, M.: A 500-year annual runoff reconstruction for 14 selected European catchments, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4035–4056, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4035-2022, 2022.
Nearing, G. S., Tian, Y., Gupta, H. V., Clark, M. P., Harrison, K. W., and Weijs, S. V.: A philosophical basis for hydrological uncertainty, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 61, 1666–1678, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1183009, 2016.
Nguyen, P., Ombadi, M., Gorooh, V. A., Shearer, E. J., Sadeghi, M., Sorooshian, S., Hsu, K., Bolvin, D., and Ralph, M. F.: PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate (PDIR-Now): A Near-Real-Time, Quasi-Global Satellite Precipitation Dataset, J. Hydrometeorol., 21, 2893–2906, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0177.1, 2020a.
Nguyen, P., Shearer, E. J., Ombadi, M., Gorooh, V. A., Hsu, K., Sorooshian, S., Logan, W. S., and Ralph, M.: PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate Model (PDIR) for High-Resolution, Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimation, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 101, E286–E302, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0118.1, 2020b.
Nguyen, P., Shearer, E. J., Tran, H., Ombadi, M., Hayatbini, N., Palacios, T., Huynh, P., Updegraff, G., Hsu, K., Kuligowski, B., Logan, W. S., and Sorooshian, S.: The CHRS Data Portal, an easily accessible public repository for PERSIANN global satellite precipitation data, Scientific Data, 6, 180296, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.296, 2019 (data available at: http://chrsdata.eng.uci.edu/, last access: 19 December 2023).
Pan, B., Anderson, G. J., Goncalves, A., Lucas, D. D., Bonfils, C. J., Lee, J., Tian, Y., and Ma, H. Y.: Learning to correct climate projection biases, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 13, e2021MS002509, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002509, 2021.
Parodi, M. U., Giardino, A., van Dongeren, A., Pearson, S. G., Bricker, J. D., and Reniers, A. J. H. M.: Uncertainties in coastal flood risk assessments in small island developing states, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2397–2414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2397-2020, 2020.
Razavi, S.: Deep learning, explained: Fundamentals, explainability, and bridgeability to process-based modelling, Environ. Modell. Softw., 144, 105159, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105159, 2021.
Schaake, J. C., Hamill, T. M., Buizza, R., and Clark, M.: HEPEX: the hydrological ensemble prediction experiment, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 1541–1548, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-10-1541, 2007.
Shen, C. and Lawson, K.: Applications of deep learning in hydrology, Deep Learning for the Earth Sciences: A Comprehensive Approach to Remote Sensing, Climate Science, and Geosciences, edited by: Camps-Valls, G., Tuia, D., Zhu, X., and Reichstein, M., John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 283–297, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119646181.ch19, 2021.
Shen, Y., Ruijsch, J., Lu, M., Sutanudjaja, E. H., and Karssenberg, D.: Random forests-based error-correction of streamflow from a large-scale hydrological model: Using model state variables to estimate error terms, Comput. Geosci., 159, 105019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2021.105019, 2022.
Shen, Z., Yong, B., Gourley, J. J., and Qi, W.: Real-time bias adjustment for satellite-based precipitation estimates over Mainland China, J. Hydrol., 596, 126133, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126133, 2021.
Sit, M., Demiray, B. Z., Xiang, Z., Ewing, G. J., Sermet, Y., and Demir, I.: A comprehensive review of deep learning applications in hydrology and water resources, Water Sci. Technol., 82, 2635–2670, https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2020.369, 2020.
Sittner, W. T., Schauss, C. E., and Monro, J. C.: Continuous hydrograph synthesis with an API-type hydrologic model, Water Resour. Res., 5, 1007–1022, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR005i005p01007, 1969.
Sivapalan, M.: From engineering hydrology to Earth system science: milestones in the transformation of hydrologic science, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1665–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1665-2018, 2018.
Sordo-Ward, Á., Granados, I., Martín-Carrasco, F., and Garrote, L.: Impact of Hydrological Uncertainty on Water Management Decisions, Water Resour. Manag., 30, 5535–5551, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1505-5, 2016.
Sun, Q., Miao, C., Duan, Q., Ashouri, H., Sorooshian, S., and Hsu, K. L.: A Review of Global Precipitation Data Sets: Data Sources, Estimation, and Intercomparisons, Rev. Geophys., 56, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000574, 2018.
Taillardat, M., Mestre, O., Zamo, M., and Naveau, P.: Calibrated Ensemble Forecasts Using Quantile Regression Forests and Ensemble Model Output Statistics, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 2375–2393, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0260.1, 2016.
Taillardat, M., Fougères, A., Naveau, P., and Mestre, O.: Forest-Based and Semiparametric Methods for the Postprocessing of Rainfall Ensemble Forecasting, Weather Forecast., 34, 617–634, https://dio.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0149.1, 2019.
Tan, M. L., Gassman, P. W., Yang, X., and Haywood, J.: A review of SWAT applications, performance and future needs for simulation of hydro-climatic extremes, Adv. Water Resour., 143, 103662, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103662, 2020.
Tian, Y., Peters-Lidard, C. D., Eylander, J. B., Joyce, R. J., Huffman, G. J., Adler, R. F., Hsu, K., Turk, F. J., Garcia, M., and Zeng, J.: Component analysis of errors in satellite-based precipitation estimates, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D24101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011949, 2009.
Troin, M., Arsenault, R., Wood, A. W., Brissette, F., and Martel, J. L.: Generating Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts: A Review of Methods and Approaches Over the Past 40 Years, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR028392, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028392, 2021.
Tsai, W., Feng, D., Pan, M., Beck, H., Lawson, K., Yang, Y., Liu, J., and Shen, C.: From calibration to parameter learning: Harnessing the scaling effects of big data in geoscientific modelling, Nat. Commun., 12, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26107-z, 2021.
Tyralis, H. and Papacharalampous, G.: Quantile-based hydrological modelling, Water, 13, 3420, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13233420, 2021.
Tyralis, H., Papacharalampous, G., Burnetas, A., and Langousis, A.: Hydrological post-processing using stacked generalization of quantile regression algorithms: Large-scale application over CONUS, J. Hydrol., 577, 123957, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.123957, 2019.
Wang, Q. J., Robertson, D. E., and Chiew, F. H. S.: A Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites, Water Resour. Res., 45, W05407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007355, 2009.
Wu, J., Yen, H., Arnold, J. G., Yang, Y. C. E., Cai, X., White, M. J., Santhi, C., Miao, C., and Srinivasan, R.: Development of reservoir operation functions in SWAT+ for national environmental assessments, J. Hydrol., 583, 124556, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124556, 2020.
Xia, J.: Identification of a constrained nonlinear hydrological system described by Volterra Functional Series, Water Resour. Res., 27, 2415–2420, https://doi.org/10.1029/91WR01364, 1991.
Xia, J., Wang, G., Tan, G., Ye, A., and Huang, G. H.: Development of distributed time-variant gain model for nonlinear hydrological systems, Sci. China Ser. D, 48, 713–723, https://doi.org/10.1360/03yd0183, 2005.
Xu, L., Chen, N., Moradkhani, H., Zhang, X., and Hu, C.: Improving Global Monthly and Daily Precipitation Estimation by Fusing Gauge Observations, Remote Sensing, and Reanalysis Data Sets, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR026444, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026444, 2020.
Yang, Q., Wang, Q. J., and Hakala, K.: Achieving effective calibration of precipitation forecasts over a continental scale, J. Hydrol., 35, 100818, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100818, 2021.
Ye, A., Duan, Q., Zeng, H., Li, L., and Wang, C.: A distributed time-variant gain hydrological model based on remote sensing, Journal of Resources and Ecology, 1, 222–230, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1674-764x.2010.03.005, 2010.
Ye, A., Duan, Q., Zhan, C., Liu, Z., and Mao, Y.: Improving kinematic wave routing scheme in Community Land Model, Hydrol. Res., 44, 886–903, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2012.145, 2013.
Ye, A., Duan, Q., Yuan, X., Wood, E. F., and Schaake, J.: Hydrologic post-processing of MOPEX streamflow simulations, J. Hydrol., 508, 147–156, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.10.055, 2014.
Ye, A., Duan, Q., Schaake, J., Xu, J., Deng, X., Di, Z., Miao, C., and Gong, W.: Post-processing of ensemble forecasts in low-flow period, Hydrol. Process., 29, 2438–2453, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10374, 2015.
Yilmaz, K. K., Gupta, H. V., and Wagener, T.: A process-based diagnostic approach to model evaluation: Application to the NWS distributed hydrologic model, Water Resour. Res., 44, W09417, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006716, 2008.
Zhang, Y. and Ye, A.: Machine Learning for Precipitation Forecasts Postprocessing: Multimodel Comparison and Experimental Investigation, J. Hydrometeorol., 22, 3065–3085, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0096.1, 2021.
Zhang, Y., Ye, A., Nguyen, P., Analui, B., Sorooshian, S., and Hsu, K.: New insights into error decomposition for precipitation products, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL094092, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094092, 2021a.
Zhang, Y., Ye, A., Nguyen, P., Analui, B., Sorooshian, S., and Hsu, K.: Error Characteristics and Scale Dependence of Current Satellite Precipitation Estimates Products in Hydrological Modelling, Remote Sensing, 13, 3061, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13163061, 2021b.
Zhang, Y., Ye, A., Nguyen, P., Analui, B., Sorooshian, S., and Hsu, K.: QRF4P-NRT Probabilistic Post-processing of Near-real-time Satellite Precipitation Estimates using Quantile Regression Forests, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2022WR032117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR032117, 2022a.
Zhang, Y., Ye, A., Nguyen, P., Analui, B., Sorooshian, S., and Hsu, K.: Dataset and results for “Comparing machine learning and deep learning models for probabilistic post-processing of satellite precipitation-driven streamflow simulation”, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7187505, 2022b.
Zhao, L., Duan, Q., Schaake, J., Ye, A., and Xia, J.: A hydrologic post-processor for ensemble streamflow predictions, Adv. Geosci., 29, 51–59, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-51-2011, 2011.
Zhou, X., Polcher, J., and Dumas, P.: Representing Human Water Management in a Land Surface Model Using a Supply/Demand Approach, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR028133, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028133, 2021.
Zhu, S., Luo, X., Yuan, X., and Xu, Z.: An improved long short-term memory network for streamflow forecasting in the upper Yangtze River, Stoch. Env. Res. Risk A., 34, 1313–1329, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01766-4, 2020.
Zounemat-Kermani, M., Batelaan, O., Fadaee, M., and Hinkelmann, R: Ensemble machine learning paradigms in hydrology: A review, J. Hydrol., 598, 126266, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126266, 2021.
Short summary
Our study shows that while the quantile regression forest (QRF) and countable mixtures of asymmetric Laplacians long short-term memory (CMAL-LSTM) models demonstrate similar proficiency in multipoint probabilistic predictions, QRF excels in smaller watersheds and CMAL-LSTM in larger ones. CMAL-LSTM performs better in single-point deterministic predictions, whereas QRF model is more efficient overall.
Our study shows that while the quantile regression forest (QRF) and countable mixtures of...
