Articles | Volume 27, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2847-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2847-2023
Research article
 | 
01 Aug 2023
Research article |  | 01 Aug 2023

Historical rainfall data in northern Italy predict larger meteorological drought hazard than climate projections

Rui Guo and Alberto Montanari

Related authors

Combining uncertainty quantification and entropy-inspired concepts into a single objective function for rainfall-runoff model calibration
Alonso Pizarro, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, and Alberto Montanari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-389,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-389, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood
Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, 2024
Short summary
Global-scale human pressure evolution imprints on sustainability of river systems
Serena Ceola, Francesco Laio, and Alberto Montanari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3933–3944, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3933-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3933-2019, 2019
Short summary
A large sample analysis of European rivers on seasonal river flow correlation and its physical drivers
Theano Iliopoulou, Cristina Aguilar, Berit Arheimer, María Bermúdez, Nejc Bezak, Andrea Ficchì, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Juraj Parajka, María José Polo, Guillaume Thirel, and Alberto Montanari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 73–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-73-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-73-2019, 2019
Short summary
A geostatistical data-assimilation technique for enhancing macro-scale rainfall–runoff simulations
Alessio Pugliese, Simone Persiano, Stefano Bagli, Paolo Mazzoli, Juraj Parajka, Berit Arheimer, René Capell, Alberto Montanari, Günter Blöschl, and Attilio Castellarin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4633–4648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4633-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4633-2018, 2018
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
Quantifying spatiotemporal and elevational precipitation gauge network uncertainty in the Canadian Rockies
André Bertoncini and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 983–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-983-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-983-2025, 2025
Short summary
Toward merging MOPEX and CAMELS hydrometeorological datasets: compatibility and statistical comparison
Katharine Owen Sink and Tom Brikowski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4182,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4182, 2025
Short summary
Comparison of BARRA and ERA5 in Replicating Mean and Extreme Precipitation over Australia
Kevin K. W. Cheung, Fei Ji, Nidhi Nishant, Jin Teng, James Bennett, and De Li Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-286,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-286, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Comparison of high-resolution climate reanalysis datasets for hydro-climatic impact studies
Raul R. Wood, Joren Janzing, Amber van Hamel, Jonas Götte, Dominik L. Schumacher, and Manuela I. Brunner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2905,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2905, 2024
Short summary
Diurnal Variability of Global Precipitation: Insights from Hourly Satellite and Reanalysis Datasets
Rajani Kumar Pradhan, Yannis Markonis, Francesco Marra, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Simon Michael Papalexiou, and Vincenzo Levizzani
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1626,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1626, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Haylock, M., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Rahimzadeh, F., Tagipour, A., Rupa Kumar, K., Revadekar, J., Griffiths, G., Vincent, L., Stephenson, D. B., Burn, J., Aguilar, E., Brunet, M., Taylor, M., New, M., Zhai, P., Rusticucci, M., and Vazquez-Aguirre, J. L.: Global Observed Changes in Daily Climate Extremes of Temperature and Precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D05109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006290, 2006. a
Aloysius, N. R., Sheffield, J., Saiers, J. E., Li, H., and Wood, E. F.: Evaluation of Historical and Future Simulations of Precipitation and Temperature in Central Africa from CMIP5 Climate Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 130–152, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023656, 2016. a
Antolini, G., Auteri, L., Pavan, V., Tomei, F., Tomozeiu, R., and Marletto, V.: A daily high-resolution gridded climatic data set for Emilia-Romagna, Italy, during 1961–2010, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 1970–1986, 2016. a
Brunetti, M., Buffoni, L., Lo Vecchio, G., Maugeri, M., and Nanni, T.: Tre Secoli Di Meteorologia a Bologna, Cooperativa Universitaria Studio e Lavoro Milan Rep. 325, 2001. a, b
Brunetti, M., Maugeri, M., Monti, F., and Nanni, T.: Temperature and Precipitation Variability in Italy in the Last Two Centuries from Homogenised Instrumental Time Series, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 345–381, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1251, 2006. a
Download
Short summary
The present study refers to the region of Bologna, where the availability of a 209-year-long daily rainfall series allows us to make a unique assessment of global climate models' reliability and their predicted changes in rainfall and multiyear droughts. Our results suggest carefully considering the impact of uncertainty when designing climate change adaptation policies for droughts. Rigorous use and comprehensive interpretation of the available information are needed to avoid mismanagement.
Share