Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-71-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-71-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
06 Jan 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 06 Jan 2022
| 06 Jan 2022
Improved representation of agricultural land use and crop management for large-scale hydrological impact simulation in Africa using SWAT+
Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering Department, Vrije Universiteit
Brussel (VUB), 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Celray James Chawanda
Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering Department, Vrije Universiteit
Brussel (VUB), 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Jonas Jägermeyr
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York,
NY 10025, USA
Climate Resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
(PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
Ann van Griensven
Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering Department, Vrije Universiteit
Brussel (VUB), 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Water Science and Engineering Department, IHE Delft Institute for
Water Education, 2611 AX Delft, The Netherlands
Related authors
Celray James Chawanda, Ann van Griensven, Albert Nkwasa, Jose Pablo Teran Orsini, Jaehak Jeong, Soon-Kun Choi, Raghavan Srinivasan, and Jeffrey G. Arnold
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-188, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Water resources face more challenges from climate change and human activities. We improved global water modeling by developing a high-resolution system using SWAT+, using automated reproducible workflow. This approach simplifies tracking the progress of global impact assessment modelling efforts. The global model will further help assess water stress hotspots and inform sustainable water management as further improvements come.
Celray James Chawanda, Albert Nkwasa, Wim Thiery, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Africa's water resources are being negatively impacted by climate change and land-use change. The SWAT+ hydrological model was used to simulate the hydrological cycle in Africa, and results show likely decreases in river flows in the Zambezi and Congo rivers and highest flows in the Niger River basins due to climate change. Land cover change had the biggest impact in the Congo River basin, emphasizing the importance of including land-use change in studies.
Joel Z. Harms, Julien J. Malard-Adam, Jan F. Adamowski, Ashutosh Sharma, and Albert Nkwasa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1683–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To facilitate the meaningful participation of stakeholders in water management, model choice is crucial. We show how system dynamics models (SDMs), which are very visual and stakeholder-friendly, can be automatically combined with physically based hydrological models that may be more appropriate for modelling the water processes of a human–water system. This allows building participatory SDMs with stakeholders and delegating hydrological components to an external hydrological model.
Anna Msigwa, Celray James Chawanda, Hans C. Komakech, Albert Nkwasa, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4447–4468, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4447-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Studies using agro-hydrological models, like the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to map evapotranspiration (ET) do not account for cropping seasons. A comparison between the default SWAT+ set-up (with static land use representation) and a dynamic SWAT+ model set-up (with seasonal land use representation) is made by spatial mapping of the ET. The results show that ET with seasonal representation is closer to remote sensing estimates, giving better performance than ET with static land use.
Celray James Chawanda, Ann van Griensven, Albert Nkwasa, Jose Pablo Teran Orsini, Jaehak Jeong, Soon-Kun Choi, Raghavan Srinivasan, and Jeffrey G. Arnold
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-188, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Water resources face more challenges from climate change and human activities. We improved global water modeling by developing a high-resolution system using SWAT+, using automated reproducible workflow. This approach simplifies tracking the progress of global impact assessment modelling efforts. The global model will further help assess water stress hotspots and inform sustainable water management as further improvements come.
Jevgenijs Steinbuks, Yongyang Cai, Jonas Jaegermeyr, and Thomas W. Hertel
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4791–4819, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper applies a cutting-edge numerical method, SCEQ, to show how uncertain climate change and technological progress affect the future utilization of the world's scarce land resources. The paper's key insight is to illustrate how much global cropland will expand when future crop yields are unknown. The study finds the range of outcomes for land use change to be smaller when using this novel method compared to existing deterministic models.
Celray James Chawanda, Albert Nkwasa, Wim Thiery, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Africa's water resources are being negatively impacted by climate change and land-use change. The SWAT+ hydrological model was used to simulate the hydrological cycle in Africa, and results show likely decreases in river flows in the Zambezi and Congo rivers and highest flows in the Niger River basins due to climate change. Land cover change had the biggest impact in the Congo River basin, emphasizing the importance of including land-use change in studies.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Weihang Liu, Tao Ye, Christoph Müller, Jonas Jägermeyr, James A. Franke, Haynes Stephens, and Shuo Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7203–7221, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a machine-learning-based crop model emulator with the inputs and outputs of multiple global gridded crop model ensemble simulations to capture the year-to-year variation of crop yield under future climate change. The emulator can reproduce the year-to-year variation of simulated yield given by the crop models under CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen perturbations. Developing this emulator can provide a tool to project future climate change impact in a simple way.
Joel Z. Harms, Julien J. Malard-Adam, Jan F. Adamowski, Ashutosh Sharma, and Albert Nkwasa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1683–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To facilitate the meaningful participation of stakeholders in water management, model choice is crucial. We show how system dynamics models (SDMs), which are very visual and stakeholder-friendly, can be automatically combined with physically based hydrological models that may be more appropriate for modelling the water processes of a human–water system. This allows building participatory SDMs with stakeholders and delegating hydrological components to an external hydrological model.
Anna Msigwa, Celray James Chawanda, Hans C. Komakech, Albert Nkwasa, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4447–4468, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4447-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Studies using agro-hydrological models, like the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to map evapotranspiration (ET) do not account for cropping seasons. A comparison between the default SWAT+ set-up (with static land use representation) and a dynamic SWAT+ model set-up (with seasonal land use representation) is made by spatial mapping of the ET. The results show that ET with seasonal representation is closer to remote sensing estimates, giving better performance than ET with static land use.
Inne Vanderkelen, Shervan Gharari, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn P. Clark, David M. Lawrence, Sean Swenson, Yadu Pokhrel, Naota Hanasaki, Ann van Griensven, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4163–4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4163-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Human-controlled reservoirs have a large influence on the global water cycle. However, dam operations are rarely represented in Earth system models. We implement and evaluate a widely used reservoir parametrization in a global river-routing model. Using observations of individual reservoirs, the reservoir scheme outperforms the natural lake scheme. However, both schemes show a similar performance due to biases in runoff timing and magnitude when using simulated runoff.
Estifanos Addisu Yimer, Ryan T. Bailey, Lise Leda Piepers, Jiri Nossent, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-169, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-169, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
A recently developed groundwater module (gwflow) coupled with the soil water assessment tool (SWAT+) is used to simulate the streamflow of the Dijle catchment, Belgium. The standalone model (SWAT+) resulted in unsatisfactory streamflow simulations while SWAT+gwflow produced streamflow that considerably mimics the measured river discharge. Furthermore, modifications to the gwflow module are made to account for the vital hydrological process (groundwater-soil profile interactions).
Alemu Yenehun, Mekete Dessie, Fenta Nigate, Ashebir Sewale Belay, Mulugeta Azeze, Marc Van Camp, Derbew Fenetie Taye, Desale Kidane, Enyew Adgo, Jan Nyssen, Ann van Griensven, and Kristine Walraevens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-527, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-527, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Population growth, industrial expansion, and climate change are causing stress on the limited freshwater resources of the globe. Groundwater is one of the important freshwater resources. Hence, managing these limited resources is a key task for the sector experts. To do so, understanding recharge processes and its quantification is vital. In this study, three different methods using measured data are applied to estimate recharge and identify the controlling factors.
Imeshi Weerasinghe, Wim Bastiaanssen, Marloes Mul, Li Jia, and Ann van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1565–1586, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1565-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Water resource allocation to various sectors requires an understanding of the hydrological cycle, where evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component. Satellite-derived products estimate ET but are hard to evaluate at large scales. This work presents an alternate evaluation methodology to point-scale observations in Africa. The paper enables users to select an ET product based on their performance regarding selected criteria using a ranking system. The highest ranked products are WaPOR and CMRSET.
Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, Anja Rammig, Kirsten Thonicke, Hester Biemans, Matthias Forkel, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Jonas Jägermeyr, Jürgen Knauer, Fanny Langerwisch, Wolfgang Lucht, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, and Katharina Waha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1343–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Here we provide a comprehensive model description of a global terrestrial biosphere model, named LPJmL4, incorporating the carbon and water cycle and the quantification of agricultural production. The model allows for the consistent and joint quantification of climate and land use change impacts on the biosphere. The model represents the key ecosystem functions, but also the influence of humans on the biosphere. It comes with an evaluation paper to demonstrate the credibility of LPJmL4.
Tadesse Alemayehu, Ann van Griensven, Befekadu Taddesse Woldegiorgis, and Willy Bauwens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4449–4467, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4449-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4449-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this paper is to improve the vegetation growth modelling in SWAT for tropical ecosystems. Therefore, we propose a straightforward but robust soil moisture index (SMI) – a quotient of rainfall (P) and reference evapotranspiration (ETr) – to dynamically initiate a new growth cycle within a predefined period. Our results for the Mara Basin (Kenya/Tanzania) show that the simulated LAI corresponds well with the MODIS LAI for for evergreen forest, savanna grassland and shrubland.
Lan T. Ha, Wim G. M. Bastiaanssen, Ann van Griensven, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, and Gabriel B. Senay
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-251, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The paper shows a new approach in calibrating hydrological model using remote sensing data from open access sources. The innovation is that the parameters of the soil-vegetation processes were optimized that will make SWAT a useful tool for optimizing water conservation, agricultural outputs, and ecosystem services such as reduced soil erosion, better water quality standards, carbon sequestration, micro-climate cooling and appraising scenarios of green growth.
J. Jägermeyr, D. Gerten, J. Heinke, S. Schaphoff, M. Kummu, and W. Lucht
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3073–3091, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3073-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3073-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present a process-based simulation of global irrigation systems for the world’s major crop types. This study advances the global quantification of irrigation systems while providing a framework for assessing potential future transitions in these systems, a prerequisite for refined simulation of crop yields under climate change. We reveal for many river basins the potential for sizeable water savings and related increases in water productivity through irrigation improvements.
M. Arias-Hidalgo, B. Bhattacharya, A. E. Mynett, and A. van Griensven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2905–2915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2905-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2905-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Lack of robustness of hydrological models: a large-sample diagnosis and an attempt to identify hydrological and climatic drivers
Achieving water budget closure through physical hydrological process modelling: insights from a large-sample study
Heavy-tailed flood peak distributions: what is the effect of the spatial variability of rainfall and runoff generation?
State updating of the Xin'anjiang model: joint assimilating streamflow and multi-source soil moisture data via the asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter with enhanced error models
Improving the hydrological consistency of a process-based solute-transport model by simultaneous calibration of streamflow and stream concentrations
Leveraging a time-series event separation method to disentangle time-varying hydrologic controls on streamflow – application to wildfire-affected catchments
The significance of the leaf area index for evapotranspiration estimation in SWAT-T for characteristic land cover types of West Africa
Improved representation of soil moisture processes through incorporation of cosmic-ray neutron count measurements in a large-scale hydrologic model
Spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow in water-scarce Mediterranean basins
A large-sample modelling approach towards integrating streamflow and evaporation data for the Spanish catchments
Technical note: An approach for handling multiple temporal frequencies with different input dimensions using a single LSTM cell
Seasonal variation in land cover estimates reveals sensitivities and opportunities for environmental models
Estimating response times, flow velocities, and roughness coefficients of Canadian Prairie basins
Learning landscape features from streamflow with autoencoders
On the use of streamflow transformations for hydrological model calibration
Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators
Multi-scale soil moisture data and process-based modeling reveal the importance of lateral groundwater flow in a subarctic catchment
Catchment response to climatic variability: implications for root zone storage and streamflow predictions
Hybrid hydrological modeling for large alpine basins: a semi-distributed approach
Karst aquifer discharge response to rainfall interpreted as anomalous transport
HESS Opinions: Never train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network on a single basin
Large-sample hydrology – a few camels or a whole caravan?
Comment on “Are soils overrated in hydrology?” by Gao et al. (2023)
Projections of streamflow intermittence under climate change in European drying river networks
Multi-decadal fluctuations in root zone storage capacity through vegetation adaptation to hydro-climatic variability have minor effects on the hydrological response in the Neckar River basin, Germany
Technical note: What does the Standardized Streamflow Index actually reflect? Insights and implications for hydrological drought analysis
Extended range forecasting of stream water temperature with deep learning models
Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China
On the importance of plant phenology in the evaporative process of a semi-arid woodland: could it be why satellite-based evaporation estimates in the miombo differ?
Analyzing the generalization capabilities of hybrid hydrological models for extrapolation to extreme events
Regionalization of GR4J model parameters for river flow prediction in Paraná, Brazil
Evolution of river regimes in the Mekong River basin over 8 decades and the role of dams in recent hydrological extremes
Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea
To what extent do flood-inducing storm events change future flood hazards?
When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling
Runoff component quantification and future streamflow projection in a large mountainous basin based on a multidata-constrained cryospheric-hydrological model
Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble
Impacts of climate and land surface change on catchment evapotranspiration and runoff from 1951 to 2020 in Saxony, Germany
Quantifying and reducing flood forecast uncertainty by the CHUP-BMA method
Developing a tile drainage module for the Cold Regions Hydrological Model: lessons from a farm in southern Ontario, Canada
To bucket or not to bucket? Analyzing the performance and interpretability of hybrid hydrological models with dynamic parameterization
Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological modelling and regional climate projections
HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood
Scale-dependency in modeling nivo-glacial hydrological systems: the case of the Arolla basin, Switzerland
A diversity centric strategy for the selection of spatio-temporal training data for LSTM-based streamflow forecasting
Metamorphic testing of machine learning and conceptual hydrologic models
The influence of human activities on streamflow reductions during the megadrought in central Chile
Elevational control of isotopic composition and application in understanding hydrologic processes in the mid Merced River catchment, Sierra Nevada, California, USA
Exploring the Potential Processes Controls for Changes of Precipitation-Runoff Relationships in Non-stationary Environments
Enhancing long short-term memory (LSTM)-based streamflow prediction with a spatially distributed approach
Léonard Santos, Vazken Andréassian, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Göran Lindström, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, Lila Collet, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work investigates how hydrological models are transferred to a period in which climate conditions are different to the ones of the period in which they were set up. The robustness assessment test built to detect dependencies between model error and climatic drivers was applied to three hydrological models in 352 catchments in Denmark, France and Sweden. Potential issues are seen in a significant number of catchments for the models, even though the catchments differ for each model.
Xudong Zheng, Dengfeng Liu, Shengzhi Huang, Hao Wang, and Xianmeng Meng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 627–653, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-627-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Water budget non-closure is a widespread phenomenon among multisource datasets which undermines the robustness of hydrological inferences. This study proposes a Multisource Dataset Correction Framework grounded in Physical Hydrological Process Modelling to enhance water budget closure, termed PHPM-MDCF. We examined the efficiency and robustness of the framework using the CAMELS dataset and achieved an average reduction of 49 % in total water budget residuals across 475 CONUS basins.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Viet Dung Nguyen, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 447–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Flood peak distributions indicate how likely the occurrence of an extreme flood is at a certain river. If the distribution has a so-called heavy tail, extreme floods are more likely than might be anticipated. We find heavier tails in small catchments compared to large catchments, and spatially variable rainfall leads to a lower occurrence probability of extreme floods. Spatially variable runoff does not show effects. The results can improve estimations of probabilities of extreme floods.
Junfu Gong, Xingwen Liu, Cheng Yao, Zhijia Li, Albrecht H. Weerts, Qiaoling Li, Satish Bastola, Yingchun Huang, and Junzeng Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 335–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces a new method to improve flood forecasting by combining soil moisture and streamflow data using an advanced data assimilation technique. By integrating field and reanalysis soil moisture data and assimilating this with streamflow measurements, we aim to enhance the accuracy of flood predictions. This approach reduces the accumulation of past errors in the initial conditions at the start of the forecast, helping to better prepare for and respond to floods.
Jordy Salmon-Monviola, Ophélie Fovet, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 127–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To increase the predictive power of hydrological models, it is necessary to improve their consistency, i.e. their physical realism, which is measured by the ability of the model to reproduce observed system dynamics. Using a model to represent the dynamics of water and nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in an agricultural catchment, we showed that using solute-concentration data for calibration is useful to improve the hydrological consistency of the model.
Haley A. Canham, Belize Lane, Colin B. Phillips, and Brendan P. Murphy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 27–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of watershed disturbances has proved challenging to disentangle from natural streamflow variability. This study evaluates the influence of time-varying hydrologic controls on rainfall–runoff in undisturbed and wildfire-disturbed watersheds using a novel time-series event separation method. Across watersheds, water year type and season influenced rainfall–runoff patterns. Accounting for these controls enabled clearer isolation of wildfire effects.
Fabian Merk, Timo Schaffhauser, Faizan Anwar, Ye Tuo, Jean-Martial Cohard, and Markus Disse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5511–5539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Evapotranspiration (ET) is computed from the vegetation (plant transpiration) and soil (soil evaporation). In western Africa, plant transpiration correlates with vegetation growth. Vegetation is often represented using the leaf area index (LAI). In this study, we evaluate the importance of the LAI for ET calculation. We take a close look at this interaction and highlight its relevance. Our work contributes to the understanding of terrestrial water cycle processes .
Eshrat Fatima, Rohini Kumar, Sabine Attinger, Maren Kaluza, Oldrich Rakovec, Corinna Rebmann, Rafael Rosolem, Sascha E. Oswald, Luis Samaniego, Steffen Zacharias, and Martin Schrön
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5419–5441, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study establishes a framework to incorporate cosmic-ray neutron measurements into the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). We evaluate different approaches to estimate neutron counts within the mHM using the Desilets equation, with uniformly and non-uniformly weighted average soil moisture, and the physically based code COSMIC. The data improved not only soil moisture simulations but also the parameterisation of evapotranspiration in the model.
Laia Estrada, Xavier Garcia, Joan Saló-Grau, Rafael Marcé, Antoni Munné, and Vicenç Acuña
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5353–5373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling is a powerful tool to support decision-making. We assessed spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow for 2001–2022 with a hydrological model, integrating stakeholder expert knowledge on management operations. The results provide insight into how climate change and anthropogenic pressures affect water resources availability in regions vulnerable to water scarcity, thus raising the need for sustainable management practices and integrated hydrological modelling.
Patricio Yeste, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Sonia R. Gámiz-Fortis, Yolanda Castro-Díez, Axel Bronstert, and María Jesús Esteban-Parra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5331–5352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Integrating streamflow and evaporation data can help improve the physical realism of hydrologic models. We investigate the capabilities of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) to reproduce both hydrologic variables for 189 headwater located in Spain. Results from sensitivity analyses indicate that adding two vegetation parameters is enough to improve the representation of evaporation and that the performance of VIC exceeded that of the largest modelling effort currently available in Spain.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Ralf Loritz, and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3355, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance for rainfall-runoff hydrological modeling. However, most studies focus on daily-scale predictions, limiting the benefits of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions in applications like flood forecasting. In this study, we introduce a new architecture, multi-frequency LSTM (MF-LSTM), designed to use input of various temporal frequencies to produce sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions at a moderate computational cost.
Daniel T. Myers, David Jones, Diana Oviedo-Vargas, John Paul Schmit, Darren L. Ficklin, and Xuesong Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5295–5310, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how streamflow and water quality models respond to land cover data collected by satellites during the growing season versus the non-growing season. The land cover data showed more trees during the growing season and more built areas during the non-growing season. We next found that the use of non-growing season data resulted in a higher modeled nutrient export to streams. Knowledge of these sensitivities would be particularly important when models inform water resource management.
Kevin R. Shook, Paul H. Whitfield, Christopher Spence, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5173–5192, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies suggest that the velocities of water running off landscapes in the Canadian Prairies may be much smaller than generally assumed. Analyses of historical flows for 23 basins in central Alberta show that many of the rivers responded more slowly and that the flows are much slower than would be estimated from equations developed elsewhere. The effects of slow flow velocities on the development of hydrological models of the region are discussed, as are the possible causes.
Alberto Bassi, Marvin Höge, Antonietta Mira, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Carlo Albert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4971–4988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The goal is to remove the impact of meteorological drivers in order to uncover the unique landscape fingerprints of a catchment from streamflow data. Our results reveal an optimal two-feature summary for most catchments, with a third feature associated with aridity and intermittent flow that is needed for challenging cases. Baseflow index, aridity, and soil or vegetation attributes strongly correlate with learnt features, indicating their importance for streamflow prediction.
Guillaume Thirel, Léonard Santos, Olivier Delaigue, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4837–4860, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how mathematical transformations impact calibrated hydrological model simulations. We assess how 11 transformations behave over the complete range of streamflows. Extreme transformations lead to models that are specialized for extreme streamflows but show poor performance outside the range of targeted streamflows and are less robust. We show that no a priori assumption about transformations can be taken as warranted.
Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4685–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale hydrologic simulators are a needed tool to explore complex watershed processes and how they may evolve with a changing climate. However, calibrating them can be difficult because they are costly to run and have many unknown parameters. We implement a state-of-the-art approach to model calibration using neural networks with a set of experiments based on streamflow in the upper Colorado River basin.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Kersti Leppä, Hannu Marttila, Pertti Ala-aho, Giulia Mazzotti, Terhikki Manninen, Mika Korkiakoski, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, and Samuli Launiainen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4643–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used hydrological models, field measurements, and satellite-based data to study the soil moisture dynamics in a subarctic catchment. The role of groundwater was studied with different ways to model the groundwater dynamics and via comparisons to the observational data. The choice of groundwater model was shown to have a strong impact, and representation of lateral flow was important to capture wet soil conditions. Our results provide insights for ecohydrological studies in boreal regions.
Nienke Tempel, Laurène Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4577–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities and, thus, on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that, despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4521–4538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper developed hybrid semi-distributed hydrological models by employing a process-based model as the backbone and utilizing deep learning to parameterize and replace internal modules. The main contribution is to provide a high-performance tool enriched with explicit hydrological knowledge for hydrological prediction and to improve understanding about the hydrological sensitivities to climate change in large alpine basins.
Dan Elhanati, Nadine Goeppert, and Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4239–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A continuous time random walk framework was developed to allow modeling of a karst aquifer discharge response to measured rainfall. The application of the numerical model yielded robust fits between modeled and measured discharge values, especially for the distinctive long tails found during recession times. The findings shed light on the interplay of slow and fast flow in the karst system and establish the application of the model for simulating flow and transport in such systems.
Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4187–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, a special type of neural-network architecture became increasingly popular in hydrology literature. However, in most applications, this model was applied as a one-to-one replacement for hydrology models without adapting or rethinking the experimental setup. In this opinion paper, we show how this is almost always a bad decision and how using these kinds of models requires the use of large-sample hydrology data sets.
Franziska Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4219–4237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the differences between the forcing data included in three CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB) and the forcing data included for the same catchments in the Caravan dataset affect model calibration considerably. The model performance dropped when the data from the Caravan dataset were used instead of the original data. Most of the model performance drop could be attributed to the differences in precipitation data. However, differences were largest for the potential evapotranspiration data.
Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4059–4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Gao et al. (2023) question the importance of soil in hydrology, sparking debate. We acknowledge some valid points but critique their broad, unsubstantiated views on soil's role. Our response highlights three key areas: (1) the false divide between ecosystem-centric and soil-centric approaches, (2) the vital yet varied impact of soil properties, and (3) the call for a scale-aware framework. We aim to unify these perspectives, enhancing hydrology's comprehensive understanding.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Alexandre Devers, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Claire Lauvernet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Núria Bonada, Zoltán Csabai, Heikki Mykrä, Petr Pařil, Luka Polović, and Thibault Datry
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our study projects how climate change will affect drying of river segments and stream networks in Europe, using advanced modeling techniques to assess changes in six river networks across diverse ecoregions. We found that drying events will become more frequent, intense and start earlier or last longer, potentially turning some river sections from perennial to intermittent. The results are valuable for river ecologists in evaluating the ecological health of river ecosystem.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Fabián Lema, Pablo A. Mendoza, Nicolás A. Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-221, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological droughts affect ecosystems and socioeconomic activities worldwide. Despite they are commonly described with the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), there is limited understanding of what it truly reflects in terms of water cycle processes. Here, we used state-of-the-art hydrological models in Andean basins to examine drivers of SSI fluctuations. The results highlight the importance of careful selection of indices and time scales for accurate drought characterization and monitoring.
Ryan S. Padrón, Massimiliano Zappa, Luzi Bernhard, and Konrad Bogner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2591, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We generate operational forecasts of daily maximum stream water temperature for the next month at 54 stations in Switzerland with our best performing data-driven model. The average forecast error is 0.38 °C for 1 day ahead and increases to 0.90 °C for 1 month ahead given the uncertainty in the meteorological variables influencing water temperature. Here we compare the skill of several models, how well they can forecast at new and ungauged stations, and the importance of different model inputs.
Zehua Chang, Hongkai Gao, Leilei Yong, Kang Wang, Rensheng Chen, Chuntan Han, Otgonbayar Demberel, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Shugui Hou, and Zheng Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3897–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed that considers glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrology. We utilized it to simulate future changes in cryosphere and hydrology in the Hulu catchment. Our projections showed the two glaciers will melt completely around 2050, snow cover will reduce, and permafrost will degrade. For hydrology, runoff will decrease after the glacier has melted, and permafrost degradation will increase baseflow.
Henry M. Zimba, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Kawawa E. Banda, Petra Hulsman, Nick van de Giesen, Imasiku A. Nyambe, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3633–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The fall and flushing of new leaves in the miombo woodlands co-occur in the dry season before the commencement of seasonal rainfall. The miombo species are also said to have access to soil moisture in deep soils, including groundwater in the dry season. Satellite-based evaporation estimates, temporal trends, and magnitudes differ the most in the dry season, most likely due to inadequate understanding and representation of the highlighted miombo species attributes in simulations.
Eduardo Acuna Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2147, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven techniques have shown the potential to outperform process-based models in rainfall-runoff simulations. Hybrid models, combining both approaches, aim to enhance accuracy and maintain interpretability. Expanding the set of test cases to evaluate hybrid models under different conditions we test their generalization capabilities for extreme hydrological events.
Louise Akemi Kuana, Arlan Scortegagna Almeida, Emílio Graciliano Ferreira Mercuri, and Steffen Manfred Noe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3367–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The authors compared regionalization methods for river flow prediction in 126 catchments from the south of Brazil, a region with humid subtropical and hot temperate climate. The regionalization method based on physiographic–climatic similarity had the best performance for predicting daily and Q95 reference flow. We showed that basins without flow monitoring can have a good approximation of streamflow using machine learning and physiographic–climatic information as inputs.
Huy Dang and Yadu Pokhrel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3347–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By examining basin-wide simulations of a river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we present evidence that climate variation was a key driver of hydrologic variabilities in the Mekong River basin (MRB) over the long term; however, dams have largely altered the seasonality of the Mekong’s flow regime and annual flooding patterns in major downstream areas in recent years. These findings could help us rethink the planning of future dams and water resource management in the MRB.
Yongshin Lee, Francesca Pianosi, Andres Peñuela, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3261–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following recent advancements in weather prediction technology, we explored how seasonal weather forecasts (1 or more months ahead) could benefit practical water management in South Korea. Our findings highlight that using seasonal weather forecasts for predicting flow patterns 1 to 3 months ahead is effective, especially during dry years. This suggest that seasonal weather forecasts can be helpful in improving the management of water resources.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3161–3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding worsens due to climate change, with river dynamics being a key in local flood control. Predicting post-storm geomorphic changes is challenging. Using self-organizing maps and machine learning, this study forecasts post-storm alterations in stage–discharge relationships across 3101 US stream gages. The provided framework can aid in updating hazard assessments by identifying rivers prone to change, integrating channel adjustments into flood hazard assessment.
Yalan Song, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark, Dapeng Feng, Kathryn Lawson, Kamlesh Sawadekar, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3051–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Differentiable models (DMs) integrate neural networks and physical equations for accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge discovery. We developed an adjoint-based DM for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for hydrological modeling, reducing distorted fluxes and physical parameters from errors in models that use explicit and operation-splitting schemes. With a better numerical scheme and improved structure, the adjoint-based DM matches or surpasses long short-term memory (LSTM) performance.
Mengjiao Zhang, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1464, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study conducted a detailed analysis of runoff component and future trend in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin owing to the existed differences in the published results, and find that the contributions of snowmelt and glacier melt runoff to streamflow were limited, both for ~5 % which were much lower than previous results. The streamflow there will continuously increase in the future, but the overestimated contribution from glacier melt would lead to an underestimation on such increasing trend.
Florian Willkofer, Raul R. Wood, and Ralf Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Severe flood events pose a threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates of the dynamics of these events in the future due to climate change are rarely available. Hence, this study uses data from a regional climate model, SMILE, to drive a high-resolution hydrological model for 98 catchments of hydrological Bavaria and exploits the large database to derive robust values for the 100-year flood events. Results indicate an increase in frequency and intensity for most catchments in the future.
Maik Renner and Corina Hauffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2849–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate and land surface changes influence the partitioning of water balance components decisively. Their impact is quantified for 71 catchments in Saxony. Germany. Distinct signatures in the joint water and energy budgets are found: (i) past forest dieback caused a decrease in and subsequent recovery of evapotranspiration in the affected regions, and (ii) the recent shift towards higher aridity imposed a large decline in runoff that has not been seen in the observation records before.
Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2809–2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasting facilitates reliable flood forecasting and warning. This study couples the copula-based hydrologic uncertainty processor (CHUP) with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and proposes the novel CHUP-BMA method of reducing inflow forecasting uncertainty of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The CHUP-BMA avoids the normal distribution assumption in the HUP-BMA and considers the constraint of initial conditions, which can improve the deterministic and probabilistic forecast performance.
Mazda Kompanizare, Diogo Costa, Merrin L. Macrae, John W. Pomeroy, and Richard M. Petrone
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2785–2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new agricultural tile drainage module was developed in the Cold Region Hydrological Model platform. Tile flow and water levels are simulated by considering the effect of capillary fringe thickness, drainable water and seasonal regional groundwater dynamics. The model was applied to a small well-instrumented farm in southern Ontario, Canada, where there are concerns about the impacts of agricultural drainage into Lake Erie.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2705–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hybrid models promise to merge the performance of deep learning methods with the interpretability of process-based models. One hybrid approach is the dynamic parameterization of conceptual models using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We explored this method to evaluate the effect of the flexibility given by LSTMs on the process-based part.
Adam Griffin, Alison L. Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Widespread flooding is a major problem in the UK and is greatly affected by climate change and land-use change. To look at how widespread flooding changes in the future, climate model data (UKCP18) were used with a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) across the UK, and 14 400 events were identified between two time slices: 1980–2010 and 2050–2080. There was a strong increase in the number of winter events in the future time slice and in the peak return periods.
Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually
impossibleyet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.
Anne-Laure Argentin, Pascal Horton, Bettina Schaefli, Jamal Shokory, Felix Pitscheider, Leona Repnik, Mattia Gianini, Simone Bizzi, Stuart Lane, and Francesco Comiti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1687, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we show that by taking the optimal parameters calibrated with a semi-lumped model for the discharge at a catchment's outlet, we can accurately simulate runoff at various points within the study area, including three nested and three neighboring catchments. In addition, we demonstrate that employing more intricate melt models, which better represent physical processes, enhances the transfer of parameters in the simulation, until an overparametrization limit is reached.
Everett Snieder and Usman T. Khan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-169, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-169, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Improving the accuracy of flood forecasts is paramount to minimising flood damage. Machine-learning models are increasingly being applied for flood forecasting. Such models are typically trained to large historic hydrometeorological datasets. In this work, we evaluate methods for selecting training datasets, that maximise the spatiotemproal diversity of the represented hydrological processes. Empirical results showcase the importance of hydrological diversity in training ML models.
Peter Reichert, Kai Ma, Marvin Höge, Fabrizio Fenicia, Marco Baity-Jesi, Dapeng Feng, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2505–2529, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We compared the predicted change in catchment outlet discharge to precipitation and temperature change for conceptual and machine learning hydrological models. We found that machine learning models, despite providing excellent fit and prediction capabilities, can be unreliable regarding the prediction of the effect of temperature change for low-elevation catchments. This indicates the need for caution when applying them for the prediction of the effect of climate change.
Nicolás Álamos, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Ariel Muñoz, and Álvaro González-Reyes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2483–2503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2483-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we assess the effects of climate and water use on streamflow reductions and drought intensification during the last 3 decades in central Chile. We address this by contrasting streamflow observations with near-natural streamflow simulations. We conclude that while the lack of precipitation dominates streamflow reductions in the megadrought, water uses have not diminished during this time, causing a worsening of the hydrological drought conditions and maladaptation conditions.
Fengjing Liu, Martha H. Conklin, and Glenn D. Shaw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2239–2258, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain snowpack has been declining and more precipitation falls as rain than snow. Using stable isotopes, we found flows and flow duration in Yosemite Creek are most sensitive to climate warming due to strong evaporation of waterfalls, potentially lengthening the dry-up period of waterfalls in summer and negatively affecting tourism. Groundwater recharge in Yosemite Valley is primarily from the upper snow–rain transition (2000–2500 m) and very vulnerable to a reduction in the snow–rain ratio.
Tian Lan, Tongfang Li, Hongbo Zhang, Jiefeng Wu, Yongqin David Chen, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-118, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops an integrated framework based on the novel Driving index for changes in Precipitation-Runoff Relationships (DPRR) to explore the controls for changes in precipitation-runoff relationships in non-stationary environments. According to the quantitative results of the candidate driving factors, the possible process explanations for changes in the precipitation-runoff relationships are deduced. The main contribution offers a comprehensive understanding of hydrological processes.
Qiutong Yu, Bryan A. Tolson, Hongren Shen, Ming Han, Juliane Mai, and Jimmy Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2107–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
It is challenging to incorporate input variables' spatial distribution information when implementing long short-term memory (LSTM) models for streamflow prediction. This work presents a novel hybrid modelling approach to predict streamflow while accounting for spatial variability. We evaluated the performance against lumped LSTM predictions in 224 basins across the Great Lakes region in North America. This approach shows promise for predicting streamflow in large, ungauged basin.
Cited articles
Abaci, O. and Papanicolaou, A. T.: Long-term effects of management practices
on water-driven soil erosion in an intense agricultural sub-watershed:
Monitoring and modelling, Hydrol. Process. Int. J., 23, 2818–2837, 2009.
Alemayehu, T., van Griensven, A., and Bauwens, W.: Evaluating CFSR and WATCH
Data as Input to SWAT for the Estimation of the Potential Evapotranspiration
in a Data-Scarce Eastern-African Catchment, J. Hydrol. Eng., 21, 05015028,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001305, 2016.
Alemayehu, T., van Griensven, A., Woldegiorgis, B. T., and Bauwens, W.: An improved SWAT vegetation growth module and its evaluation for four tropical ecosystems, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4449–4467, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4449-2017, 2017.
Arnold, J., Bieger, K., White, M., Srinivasan, R., Dunbar, J., and Allen,
P.: Use of decision tables to simulate management in SWAT+, Water, 10,
713, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10060713, 2018.
Arnold, J. G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R. S., and Williams, J. R.: Large
Area Hydrologic Modeling and Assessment Part I: Model Development1, JAWRA J.
Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 34, 73–89,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x, 1998.
Arnold, J. G., Moriasi, D. N., Gassman, P. W., Abbaspour, K. C., White, M.
J., Srinivasan, R., Santhi, C., Harmel, R. D., Van Griensven, A., and Van
Liew, M. W.: SWAT: Model use, calibration, and validation, Trans. ASABE, 55,
1491–1508, 2012.
Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., Srinivasan, R., Williams, J. R., Haney, E. B.,
and Neitsch, S. L.: SWAT 2012 input/output documentation, Texas Water
Resources Institute, 2013.
Asfaw, A., Simane, B., Hassen, A., and Bantider, A.: Variability and time
series trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in northcentral Ethiopia:
A case study in Woleka sub-basin, Weather Clim. Extrem., 19, 29–41,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2017.12.002, 2018.
Bégué, A., Arvor, D., Bellon, B., Betbeder, J., De Abelleyra, D., P.
D. Ferraz, R., Lebourgeois, V., Lelong, C., Simões, M., and R.
Verón, S.: Remote Sensing and Cropping Practices: A Review, Remote
Sens., 10, 99, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10010099, 2018.
Betrie, G. D., Mohamed, Y. A., van Griensven, A., and Srinivasan, R.: Sediment management modelling in the Blue Nile Basin using SWAT model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 807–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-807-2011, 2011.
Bieger, K., Arnold, J. G., Rathjens, H., White, M. J., Bosch, D. D., Allen,
P. M., Volk, M., and Srinivasan, R.: Introduction to SWAT+, A Completely
Restructured Version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, JAWRA J. Am.
Water Resour. Assoc., 53, 115–130,
https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12482, 2017.
Burakowski, E., Tawfik, A., Ouimette, A., Lepine, L., Novick, K., Ollinger,
S., Zarzycki, C., and Bonan, G.: The role of surface roughness, albedo, and
Bowen ratio on ecosystem energy balance in the Eastern United States, Agric.
For. Meteorol., 249, 367–376,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.11.030, 2018.
Camberlin, P.: Nile Basin Climates, in: The Nile: Origin, Environments,
Limnology and Human Use, edited by: Dumont, H. J., Springer Netherlands,
Dordrecht, 307–333,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-9726-3_16, 2009.
Chawanda, C. J., Arnold, J., Thiery, W., and Griensven, A. van: Mass balance
calibration and reservoir representations for large-scale hydrological
impact studies using SWAT+, Clim. Change, 163, 1307–1327,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02924-x, 2020.
Chen, F. and Xie, Z.: Effects of crop growth and development on regional
climate: a case study over East Asian monsoon area, Clim. Dyn., 38,
2291–2305, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1125-y, 2012.
Eldardiry, H. and Hossain, F.: Understanding Reservoir Operating Rules in
the Transboundary Nile River Basin Using Macroscale Hydrologic Modeling with
Satellite Measurements, J. Hydrometeorol., 20, 2253–2269,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0058.1, 2019.
Eltahir, E. A. B.: A Soil Moisture–Rainfall Feedback Mechanism: 1. Theory
and observations, Water Resour. Res., 34, 765–776,
https://doi.org/10.1029/97WR03499, 1998.
Estel, S., Kuemmerle, T., Levers, C., Baumann, M., and Hostert, P.: Mapping
cropland-use intensity across Europe using MODIS NDVI time series, Environ.
Res. Lett., 11, 024015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024015, 2016.
FAO: Using remote sensing in support of solutions to reduce agricultural
water productivity gaps, Rome, Italy, available
at: https://www.fao.org/3/i7315en/i7315en.pdf (last access: 20 February 2021), 2018.
Farr, T. G., Rosen, P. A., Caro, E., Crippen, R., Duren, R., Hensley, S.,
Kobrick, M., Paller, M., Rodriguez, E., and Roth, L.: The shuttle radar
topography mission, Rev. Geophys., 45, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005RG000183 (data available at: https://cgiarcsi.community/data/srtm-90m-digital-elevation-database-v4-1/, last access: 8 January 2021), 2007.
Fisher, J. B., Melton, F., Middleton, E., Hain, C., Anderson, M., Allen, R.,
McCabe, M. F., Hook, S., Baldocchi, D., Townsend, P. A., Kilic, A., Tu, K.,
Miralles, D. D., Perret, J., Lagouarde, J.-P., Waliser, D., Purdy, A. J.,
French, A., Schimel, D., Famiglietti, J. S., Stephens, G., and Wood, E. F.:
The future of evapotranspiration: Global requirements for ecosystem
functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and
water resources, Water Resour. Res., 53, 2618–2626,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR020175, 2017.
Gong, T. T., Lei, H. M., Yang, D. W., Jiao, Y., and Yang, H. B.: Effects of vegetation change on evapotranspiration in a semiarid shrubland of the Loess Plateau, China, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 11, 13571–13605, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-13571-2014, 2014.
Ha, L. T., Bastiaanssen, W. G. M., Van Griensven, A., Van Dijk, A. I. J. M.,
and Senay, G. B.: Calibration of Spatially Distributed Hydrological
Processes and Model Parameters in SWAT Using Remote Sensing Data and an
Auto-Calibration Procedure: A Case Study in a Vietnamese River Basin, Water,
10, 212, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020212, 2018.
Haregeweyn, N., Tsunekawa, A., Nyssen, J., Poesen, J., Tsubo, M., Tsegaye
Meshesha, D., Schütt, B., Adgo, E., and Tegegne, F.: Soil erosion and
conservation in Ethiopia: A review, Prog. Phys. Geogr. Earth Environ., 39,
750–774, https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133315598725, 2015.
Haregeweyn, N., Tsunekawa, A., Poesen, J., Tsubo, M., Meshesha, D. T.,
Fenta, A. A., Nyssen, J., and Adgo, E.: Comprehensive assessment of soil
erosion risk for better land use planning in river basins: Case study of the
Upper Blue Nile River, Sci. Total Environ., 574, 95–108,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.019, 2017.
Hengl, T., Heuvelink, G. B. M., Kempen, B., Leenaars, J. G. B., Walsh, M.
G., Shepherd, K. D., Sila, A., MacMillan, R. A., Jesus, J. M. de, Tamene,
L., and Tondoh, J. E.: Mapping Soil Properties of Africa at 250 m
Resolution: Random Forests Significantly Improve Current Predictions, PLOS
ONE, 10, e0125814, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0125814 (data available at: https://www.isric.org/projects/africa-soil-information-service-afsis, last access: 25 January 2021), 2015.
Hilker, T., Lyapustin, A. I., Tucker, C. J., Hall, F. G., Myneni, R. B.,
Wang, Y., Bi, J., de Moura, Y. M., and Sellers, P. J.: Vegetation dynamics
and rainfall sensitivity of the Amazon, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111,
16041–16046, 2014.
Hurni, H.: Erosion-productivity-conservation systems in Ethiopia, Proceedings 4th International Conference on Soil Conservation, Maracay, Venezuela, 654–674, 1985.
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L., Sahajpal, R., Frolking, S., Bodirsky, B. L., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Fisk, J., Fujimori, S., Klein Goldewijk, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heinimann, A., Humpenöder, F., Jungclaus, J., Kaplan, J. O., Kennedy, J., Krisztin, T., Lawrence, D., Lawrence, P., Ma, L., Mertz, O., Pongratz, J., Popp, A., Poulter, B., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Stehfest, E., Thornton, P., Tubiello, F. N., van Vuuren, D. P., and Zhang, X.: Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020 (data available at: https://luh.umd.edu/, last access: 31 January 2021), 2020.
Iizumi, T., Kim, W., and Nishimori, M.: Modeling the Global Sowing and
Harvesting Windows of Major Crops Around the Year 2000, J. Adv. Model. Earth
Syst., 11, 99–112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001477, 2019.
Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Ruane, A. C., Elliott, J., Balkovic, J.,
Castillo, O., Faye, B., Foster, I., Folberth, C., Franke, J. A., Fuchs, K.,
Guarin, J. R., Heinke, J., Hoogenboom, G., Iizumi, T., Jain, A. K., Kelly,
D., Khabarov, N., Lange, S., Lin, T.-S., Liu, W., Mialyk, O., Minoli, S.,
Moyer, E. J., Okada, M., Phillips, M., Porter, C., Rabin, S. S., Scheer, C.,
Schneider, J. M., Schyns, J. F., Skalsky, R., Smerald, A., Stella, T.,
Stephens, H., Webber, H., Zabel, F., and Rosenzweig, C.: Climate impacts on
global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop
models, Nat. Food, 2, 873–885, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y (data available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5062513),
2021.
Lange, S.: EartH2Observe, WFDEI and ERA-Interim data Merged and
Bias-corrected for ISIMIP (EWEMBI), GFZ Data Services [data], https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2016.004,
2016.
Leff, B., Ramankutty, N., and Foley, J. A.: Geographic distribution of major
crops across the world, Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles, 18, GB1009,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GB002108, 2004.
Li, L., Friedl, M. A., Xin, Q., Gray, J., Pan, Y., and Frolking, S.: Mapping
Crop Cycles in China Using MODIS-EVI Time Series, Remote Sens., 6,
2473–2493, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs6032473, 2014.
Lin, J., Zhang, J., Gu, Z., Chen, J., and Lyu, H.: A new approach of
assessing soil erosion using the remotely sensed leaf area index and its
application in the hilly area, Yegetos, Int. J. Plant Res., 27, 1–12, 2014.
Lokupitiya, E., Denning, S., Paustian, K., Baker, I., Schaefer, K., Verma, S., Meyers, T., Bernacchi, C. J., Suyker, A., and Fischer, M.: Incorporation of crop phenology in Simple Biosphere Model (SiBcrop) to improve land-atmosphere carbon exchanges from croplands, Biogeosciences, 6, 969–986, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-969-2009, 2009.
Lotsch, A., Friedl, M. A., Anderson, B. T., and Tucker, C. J.: Coupled
vegetation-precipitation variability observed from satellite and climate
records, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1774, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017506,
2003.
Lu, C. and Tian, H.: Global nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer use for agriculture production in the past half century: shifted hot spots and nutrient imbalance, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 181–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-181-2017 (data available at: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.863323), 2017.
M. El-Marsafawy, S., Swelam, A., and Ghanem, A.: Evolution of Crop Water
Productivity in the Nile Delta over Three Decades (1985–2015), Water, 10,
1168, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10091168, 2018.
Ma, T., Duan, Z., Li, R., and Song, X.: Enhancing SWAT with remotely sensed
LAI for improved modelling of ecohydrological process in subtropics, J.
Hydrol., 570, 802–815, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.01.024, 2019.
Makowski, D., Nesme, T., Papy, F., and Doré, T.: Global agronomy, a new
field of research. A review, Agron. Sustain. Dev., 34, 293–307,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-013-0179-0, 2014.
Metzner, J. R. and Barnes, B. H.: Decision table languages and systems, Academic Press, ISBN 978-1483205366, 2014.
Molnár, D. K. and Julien, P. Y.: Estimation of upland erosion using GIS,
Comput. Geosci., 24, 183–192,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0098-3004(97)00100-3, 1998.
Monteith, J. L.: Radiation and crops, Exp. Agric., 1, 241–251, 1965.
Msigwa, A., Komakech, H. C., Verbeiren, B., Salvadore, E., Hessels, T.,
Weerasinghe, I., and van Griensven, A.: Accounting for Seasonal Land Use
Dynamics to Improve Estimation of Agricultural Irrigation Water Withdrawals,
Water, 11, 2471, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11122471, 2019.
Mueller, B., Seneviratne, S. I., Jimenez, C., Corti, T., Hirschi, M.,
Balsamo, G., Ciais, P., Dirmeyer, P., Fisher, J. B., Guo, Z., Jung, M.,
Maignan, F., McCabe, M. F., Reichle, R., Reichstein, M., Rodell, M.,
Sheffield, J., Teuling, A. J., Wang, K., Wood, E. F., and Zhang, Y.:
Evaluation of global observations-based evapotranspiration datasets and IPCC
AR4 simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, 3–10,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046230, 2011.
Muthoni, F. K., Odongo, V. O., Ochieng, J., Mugalavai, E. M., Mourice, S.
K., Hoesche-Zeledon, I., Mwila, M., and Bekunda, M.: Long-term
spatial-temporal trends and variability of rainfall over Eastern and
Southern Africa, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 137, 1869–1882,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2712-1, 2019.
Neitsch, S. L., Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., Williams, J. R., and King, K.
W.: SWAT theoretical documentation, Soil Water Res. Lab. Grassl., 494,
234–235, 2005.
Neitsch, S. L., Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., and Williams, J. R.: Soil and
water assessment tool theoretical documentation version 2009, Texas Water
Resources Institute, 2011.
Ngetich, K. F., Mucheru-Muna, M., Mugwe, J. N., Shisanya, C. A., Diels, J.,
and Mugendi, D. N.: Length of growing season, rainfall temporal
distribution, onset and cessation dates in the Kenyan highlands, Agric. For.
Meteorol., 188, 24–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.12.011,
2014.
Nile Basin Initiative: Land use/cover in the Nile Basin – Nile Basin Water
Resources Atlas, available at: https://atlas.nilebasin.org/treatise/land-usecover-in-the-nile-basin/ (last access: 8 January 2021), 2016.
Nkwasa, A., Chawanda, C. J., Msigwa, A., Komakech, H. C., Verbeiren, B., and
van Griensven, A.: How Can We Represent Seasonal Land Use Dynamics in SWAT
and SWAT+ Models for African Cultivated Catchments?, Water, 12, 1541,
https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061541, 2020.
Nkwasa, A.: Agricultural land use and crop management implementation in large-scale SWAT+ model applications, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5797553, 2021.
O'Neal, M. R., Nearing, M. A., Vining, R. C., Southworth, J., and Pfeifer,
R. A.: Climate change impacts on soil erosion in Midwest United States with
changes in crop management, Catena, 61, 165–184, 2005.
Onyutha, C. and Willems, P.: Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in the Nile Basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2227–2246, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2227-2015, 2015.
Portmann, F. T., Siebert, S., and Döll, P.: MIRCA2000 – Global monthly
irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000: A new high-resolution
data set for agricultural and hydrological modeling, Glob. Biogeochem.
Cycles, 24, GB1011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003435, 2010.
Potter, P., Ramankutty, N., Bennett, E. M., and Donner, S. D.:
Characterizing the spatial patterns of global fertilizer application and
manure production, Earth Interact., 14, 1–22, 2010.
Qi, J., Zhang, X., Yang, Q., Srinivasan, R., Arnold, J. G., Li, J.,
Waldholf, S. T., and Cole, J.: SWAT ungauged: Water quality modeling in the
Upper Mississippi River Basin, J. Hydrol., 584, 124601,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124601, 2020.
Rajib, A., Kim, I. L., Golden, H. E., Lane, C. R., Kumar, S. V., Yu, Z., and
Jeyalakshmi, S.: Watershed Modeling with Remotely Sensed Big Data: MODIS
Leaf Area Index Improves Hydrology and Water Quality Predictions, Remote
Sens., 12, 2148, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12132148, 2020.
Raymond, P. A., Oh, N.-H., Turner, R. E., and Broussard, W.:
Anthropogenically enhanced fluxes of water and carbon from the Mississippi
River, Nature, 451, 449–452, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06505, 2008.
Rounsevell, M. D. A., Annetts, J. E., Audsley, E., Mayr, T., and Reginster,
I.: Modelling the spatial distribution of agricultural land use at the
regional scale, Agric. Ecosyst. Environ., 95, 465–479,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8809(02)00217-7, 2003.
Schuol, J. and Abbaspour, K. C.: Calibration and uncertainty issues of a
hydrological model (SWAT) applied to West Africa, Adv. Geosci., 9, 137–143,
2006.
Schuol, J., Abbaspour, K. C., Yang, H., Srinivasan, R., and Zehnder, A. J.
B.: Modeling blue and green water availability in Africa, Water Resour.
Res., 44, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006609, 2008.
Siad, S. M., Iacobellis, V., Zdruli, P., Gioia, A., Stavi, I., and
Hoogenboom, G.: A review of coupled hydrologic and crop growth models,
Agric. Water Manag., 224, 105746,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2019.105746, 2019.
Siebert, S., Henrich, V., Frenken, K., and Burke, J.: Global map of
irrigation areas version 5, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Univ. Bonn Ger.
Agric. Organ. U. N. Rome Italy, 2, 1299–1327, available at: https://www.fao.org/aquastat/en/geospatial-information/global-maps-irrigated-areas/latest-version/ (last access: 16 February 2021), 2013.
Sietz, D., Conradt, T., Krysanova, V., Hattermann, F. F., and Wechsung, F.:
The Crop Generator: Implementing crop rotations to effectively advance
eco-hydrological modelling, Agric. Syst., 193, 103183,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103183, 2021.
Sood, A. and Smakhtin, V.: Global hydrological models: a review, Hydrol.
Sci. J., 60, 549–565, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.950580, 2015.
Souza, V. F. C. de, Bertol, I., and Wolschick, N. H.: Effects of soil
management practices on water erosion under natural rainfall conditions on a
Humic Dystrudept, Rev. Bras. Ciênc. Solo, 41, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1590/18069657rbcs20160443, 2017.
Srinivasan, R., Zhang, X., and Arnold, J.: SWAT ungauged: hydrological
budget and crop yield predictions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin,
Trans. ASABE, 53, 1533–1546, 2010.
Srivastava, A., Kumari, N., and Maza, M.: Hydrological Response to
Agricultural Land Use Heterogeneity Using Variable Infiltration Capacity
Model, Water Resour. Manag., 34, 3779–3794,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02630-4, 2020.
Sugita, M., Matsuno, A., El-Kilani, R. M. M., Abdel-Fattah, A., and Mahmoud,
M. A.: Crop evapotranspiration in the Nile Delta under different irrigation
methods, Hydrol. Sci. J., 62, 1618–1635,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2017.1341631, 2017.
Sundborg, A. and White, W. R.: Sedimentation problems in river basins,
France, ISBN 9789231020148, 1982.
Swain, A.: Challenges for water sharing in the Nile basin: changing
geo-politics and changing climate, Hydrol. Sci. J., 56, 687–702,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.577037, 2011.
Tamene, L. and Le, Q. B.: Estimating soil erosion in sub-Saharan Africa
based on landscape similarity mapping and using the revised universal soil
loss equation (RUSLE), Nutr. Cycl. Agroecosystems, 102, 17–31,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-015-9674-9, 2015.
Twine, T. E., Kucharik, C. J., and Foley, J. A.: Effects of Land Cover
Change on the Energy and Water Balance of the Mississippi River Basin, J.
Hydrometeorol., 5, 640–655,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2004)005<0640:EOLCCO>2.0.CO;2, 2004.
van Griensven, A., Ndomba, P., Yalew, S., and Kilonzo, F.: Critical review of SWAT applications in the upper Nile basin countries, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3371–3381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3371-2012, 2012.
Viña, A., Gitelson, A. A., Nguy-Robertson, A. L., and Peng, Y.:
Comparison of different vegetation indices for the remote assessment of
green leaf area index of crops, Remote Sens. Environ., 115, 3468–3478,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2011.08.010, 2011.
Waha, K., Müller, C., Bondeau, A., Dietrich, J. P., Kurukulasuriya, P.,
Heinke, J., and Lotze-Campen, H.: Adaptation to climate change through the
choice of cropping system and sowing date in sub-Saharan Africa, Glob.
Environ. Change, 23, 130–143,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.001, 2013.
Waha, K., Dietrich, J. P., Portmann, F. T., Siebert, S., Thornton, P. K.,
Bondeau, A., and Herrero, M.: Multiple cropping systems of the world and the
potential for increasing cropping intensity, Glob. Environ. Change, 64,
102131, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102131, 2020.
Wang, L., Good, S. P., and Caylor, K. K.: Global synthesis of vegetation
control on evapotranspiration partitioning, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41,
6753–6757, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061439, 2014.
Williams, J. R. and Berndt, H. D.: Sediment yield prediction based on
watershed hydrology, Trans. ASAE, 20, 1100–1104, 1977.
Williams, J. R. and Singh, V.: The EPIC Model, Computer models of watershed
hydrology, Water Resour. Publ. Highl. Ranch Colo., 909–1000, 1995.
Xiong, J., Thenkabail, P. S., Gumma, M. K., Teluguntla, P., Poehnelt, J.,
Congalton, R. G., Yadav, K., and Thau, D.: Automated cropland mapping of
continental Africa using Google Earth Engine cloud computing, ISPRS J.
Photogramm. Remote Sens., 126, 225–244,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2017.01.019, 2017.
Yin, X. and Struik, P. C.: C3 and C4 photosynthesis models: An overview from
the perspective of crop modelling, NJAS – Wagening. J. Life Sci., 57,
27–38, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.njas.2009.07.001, 2009.
Zhang, X., Friedl, M. A., Schaaf, C. B., Strahler, A. H., and Liu, Z.:
Monitoring the response of vegetation phenology to precipitation in Africa
by coupling MODIS and TRMM instruments, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D12103,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005263, 2005.
Zhang, Y., Wu, Z., Singh, V. P., He, H., He, J., Yin, H., and Zhang, Y.:
Coupled hydrology-crop growth model incorporating an improved
evapotranspiration module, Agric. Water Manag., 246, 106691,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106691, 2021.
Zhao, W., Fu, B., and Qiu, Y.: An Upscaling Method for Cover-Management
Factor and Its Application in the Loess Plateau of China, Int. J. Environ.
Res. Public. Health, 10, 4752–4766, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph10104752,
2013.
Short summary
We present an approach on how to incorporate crop phenology in a regional hydrological model using decision tables and global datasets of rainfed and irrigated cropland with the associated cropping calendar and management practices. Results indicate improved temporal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) and evapotranspiration (ET) simulations in comparison with remote sensing data. In addition, the improvement of the cropping season also helps to improve soil erosion estimates in cultivated areas.
We present an approach on how to incorporate crop phenology in a regional hydrological model...
