Combining split-sample testing and hidden Markov modelling to assess the robustness of hydrological models

Guilpart, Etienne; Espanmanesh, Vahid; Tilmant, Amaury; Anctil, François

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4611-2021

Articles | Volume 25, issue 8

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4611-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4611-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 8

Research article

|

30 Aug 2021

Research article |

| 30 Aug 2021

Combining split-sample testing and hidden Markov modelling to assess the robustness of hydrological models

Etienne Guilpart, Vahid Espanmanesh, Amaury Tilmant, and François Anctil

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Final revised paper (published on 30 Aug 2021)
Preprint (discussion started on 22 Dec 2020)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

AC1: 'Comment on hess-2020-596', Étienne Guilpart, 08 Jan 2021
RC1: 'It is interesting to apply the HMM for identifying hydro-climatic condition of data used to calibrate/validate hydrological model.', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Jan 2021
- AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Étienne Guilpart, 13 Feb 2021
- AC3: 'Final Responses to RC1', Étienne Guilpart, 17 Mar 2021
RC2: 'Comment', Anonymous Referee #2, 17 Feb 2021
- AC4: 'Final Responses to RC2', Étienne Guilpart, 17 Mar 2021

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (02 Apr 2021) by Fabrizio Fenicia

AR by Étienne Guilpart on behalf of the Authors (14 May 2021) Author's response Author's tracked changes Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (18 May 2021) by Fabrizio Fenicia

RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (08 Jun 2021)

ED: Publish as is (16 Jun 2021) by Fabrizio Fenicia

AR by Étienne Guilpart on behalf of the Authors (25 Jun 2021) Manuscript

Short summary

The stationary assumption in hydrology has become obsolete because of climate changes. In that context, it is crucial to assess the performance of a hydrologic model over a wide range of climates and their corresponding hydrologic conditions. In this paper, numerous, contrasted, climate sequences identified by a hidden Markov model (HMM) are used in a differential split-sample testing framework to assess the robustness of a hydrologic model. We illustrate the method on the Senegal River.