Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4611-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4611-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
Research article
 | 
30 Aug 2021
Research article |  | 30 Aug 2021

Combining split-sample testing and hidden Markov modelling to assess the robustness of hydrological models

Etienne Guilpart, Vahid Espanmanesh, Amaury Tilmant, and François Anctil

Data sets

Monographie hydrologique du fleuve Sénégal. De l’origine des mesures jusqu’en 2011 J.-C. Bader, S. Cauchy, L. Duffar, and P. Saura https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010065190

Grilles de pluies mensuelles IRD-HSM IRD (Institut pour la Recherche et le Développement) - HSM (Hydroscience Montpellier) http://www.hydrosciences.fr/sierem/produits/Grilles/GrillesIRD.asp

Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset (https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/) I. Harris, T. J. Osborn, P. Jones, and D. Lister https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0453-3

Model code and software

Vahidesp/HMM_Classification: HMM Classifications (Version_Final) V. Espanmanesh https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5172027

airGR: Suite of GR Hydrological Models for Precipitation-Runoff Modelling L. Coron, O. Delaigue, G. Thirel, D. Dorchies, C. Perrin, C. Michel, V. Andréassian, F. Bourgin, P. Brigode, N. Le Moine, T. Mathevet, S. Mouelhi, L. Oudin, R. Pushpalatha, and A. Valéry https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/airGR/index.html

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Short summary
The stationary assumption in hydrology has become obsolete because of climate changes. In that context, it is crucial to assess the performance of a hydrologic model over a wide range of climates and their corresponding hydrologic conditions. In this paper, numerous, contrasted, climate sequences identified by a hidden Markov model (HMM) are used in a differential split-sample testing framework to assess the robustness of a hydrologic model. We illustrate the method on the Senegal River.
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