Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 23, issue 1
Articles | Volume 23, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-371-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-371-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 23, issue 1
Research article
 | 
22 Jan 2019
Research article |  | 22 Jan 2019

Seasonal streamflow forecasts for Europe – Part 2: Sources of skill

Wouter Greuell, Wietse H. P. Franssen, and Ronald W. A. Hutjes

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Short summary
This paper explains why forecasts of river flow in Europe for a time between 1 and 7 months have skill. The forecasts were produced with a water model. The model reacts to forecasts of weather variables like precipitation, which tend to have little skill and hence hardly contribute to the skill in the forecasts of river flow. The paper shows when and where these forecasts have skill; this is mostly due to knowledge of the amount of water in the soil at the time the forecasts are made.
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Special issue
Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting