Articles | Volume 23, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-371-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-371-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Jan 2019
Research article |
| 22 Jan 2019
Seasonal streamflow forecasts for Europe – Part 2: Sources of skill
Wouter Greuell
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Water Systems and Global Change (WSG) group, Wageningen University and
Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, the
Netherlands
Wietse H. P. Franssen
Water Systems and Global Change (WSG) group, Wageningen University and
Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, the
Netherlands
Ronald W. A. Hutjes
Water Systems and Global Change (WSG) group, Wageningen University and
Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, the
Netherlands
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Cited
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluation of Earth Observations and In Situ Data Assimilation for Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting J. Musuuza et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR033655
- Hydrological regimes explain the seasonal predictability of streamflow extremes Y. Du et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf678
- Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden M. Girons Lopez et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021
- Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times S. Donegan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021
- Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information E. Steirou et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1
- Hydrological drought forecasts outperform meteorological drought forecasts S. Sutanto et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8b13
- Advancing Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting in Canada: A Review of Conventional and Emerging Approaches for Operational Applications D. Nguyen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2025.106345
- Seasonal flow forecasting in Africa; exploratory studies for large lakes K. Sene & W. Tych https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-289-2021
- Forecasting water temperature in lakes and reservoirs using seasonal climate prediction D. Mercado-Bettín et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2021.117286
- Reconstructing climate trends adds skills to seasonal reference crop evapotranspiration forecasting Q. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022
- What Are the Key Drivers Controlling the Quality of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts? I. Pechlivanidis et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026987
- Seasonal streamflow forecasting in South America’s largest rivers I. Petry et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101487
- Seasonal forecasts have sufficient skill to inform some agricultural decisions A. Kondal et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad8bde
- Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK A. Peñuela et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020
- Predictability of Seasonal Streamflow and Soil Moisture in National Water Model and a Humid Alabama–Coosa–Tallapoosa River Basin Y. Duan & S. Kumar https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0206.1
- Seasonal sub-basin-scale runoff predictions: A regional hydrometeorological Ensemble Kalman Filter framework using global datasets M. Borne et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101146
- Assessing the impact of AI-based meteorological postprocessing on seasonal hydrological forecasting skill in Mediterranean semi-arid basins D. De León Pérez et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103535
- Application of the CNOP‐P Ensemble Prediction (CNOP‐PEP) Method in Evapotranspiration Forecasting Over the Tibetan Plateau to Model Parameter Uncertainties G. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003110
- Potential skill of continental-scale, medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts for flood prediction in South America V. Siqueira et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125430
- Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling D. Araya et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
- Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea Y. Lee et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024
- Skill and sources of skill in seasonal streamflow hindcasts for South America made with ECMWF’s SEAS5 and VIC W. Greuell & R. Hutjes https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128806
- A hybrid framework for sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow prediction: integrating numerical and statistical models L. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01273-9
- Sources of skill in lake temperature, discharge and ice-off seasonal forecasting tools F. Clayer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluation of Earth Observations and In Situ Data Assimilation for Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting J. Musuuza et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR033655
- Hydrological regimes explain the seasonal predictability of streamflow extremes Y. Du et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf678
- Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden M. Girons Lopez et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021
- Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times S. Donegan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021
- Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information E. Steirou et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1
- Hydrological drought forecasts outperform meteorological drought forecasts S. Sutanto et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8b13
- Advancing Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting in Canada: A Review of Conventional and Emerging Approaches for Operational Applications D. Nguyen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2025.106345
- Seasonal flow forecasting in Africa; exploratory studies for large lakes K. Sene & W. Tych https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-289-2021
- Forecasting water temperature in lakes and reservoirs using seasonal climate prediction D. Mercado-Bettín et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2021.117286
- Reconstructing climate trends adds skills to seasonal reference crop evapotranspiration forecasting Q. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022
- What Are the Key Drivers Controlling the Quality of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts? I. Pechlivanidis et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026987
- Seasonal streamflow forecasting in South America’s largest rivers I. Petry et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101487
- Seasonal forecasts have sufficient skill to inform some agricultural decisions A. Kondal et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad8bde
- Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK A. Peñuela et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020
- Predictability of Seasonal Streamflow and Soil Moisture in National Water Model and a Humid Alabama–Coosa–Tallapoosa River Basin Y. Duan & S. Kumar https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0206.1
- Seasonal sub-basin-scale runoff predictions: A regional hydrometeorological Ensemble Kalman Filter framework using global datasets M. Borne et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101146
- Assessing the impact of AI-based meteorological postprocessing on seasonal hydrological forecasting skill in Mediterranean semi-arid basins D. De León Pérez et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103535
- Application of the CNOP‐P Ensemble Prediction (CNOP‐PEP) Method in Evapotranspiration Forecasting Over the Tibetan Plateau to Model Parameter Uncertainties G. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003110
- Potential skill of continental-scale, medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts for flood prediction in South America V. Siqueira et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125430
- Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling D. Araya et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
- Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea Y. Lee et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024
- Skill and sources of skill in seasonal streamflow hindcasts for South America made with ECMWF’s SEAS5 and VIC W. Greuell & R. Hutjes https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128806
- A hybrid framework for sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow prediction: integrating numerical and statistical models L. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01273-9
- Sources of skill in lake temperature, discharge and ice-off seasonal forecasting tools F. Clayer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 23 Jun 2026
Short summary
This paper explains why forecasts of river flow in Europe for a time between 1 and 7 months have skill. The forecasts were produced with a water model. The model reacts to forecasts of weather variables like precipitation, which tend to have little skill and hence hardly contribute to the skill in the forecasts of river flow. The paper shows when and where these forecasts have skill; this is mostly due to knowledge of the amount of water in the soil at the time the forecasts are made.
This paper explains why forecasts of river flow in Europe for a time between 1 and 7 months have...
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