Articles | Volume 23, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2715-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2715-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Jun 2019
Research article |
| 25 Jun 2019
| 25 Jun 2019
Assessing the added value of the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model for precipitation in complex topography
Universität Innsbruck, Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, Innsbruck, Austria
Marlis Hofer
Universität Innsbruck, Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, Innsbruck, Austria
Fabien Maussion
Universität Innsbruck, Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, Innsbruck, Austria
Ethan Gutmann
Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Alexander Gohm
Universität Innsbruck, Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, Innsbruck, Austria
Mathias W. Rotach
Universität Innsbruck, Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, Innsbruck, Austria
Related authors
Johannes Horak, Marlis Hofer, Ethan Gutmann, Alexander Gohm, and Mathias W. Rotach
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1657–1680, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1657-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1657-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This process-based evaluation of the atmospheric model ICAR is conducted to derive recommendations to increase the likelihood of its results being correct for the right reasons. We conclude that a different diagnosis of the atmospheric background state is necessary, as well as a model top at an elevation of at least 10 km. Alternative boundary conditions at the top were not found to be effective in reducing this model top elevation. The results have wide implications for future ICAR studies.
Mari R. Tye, Ming Ge, Jadwiga H. Richter, Ethan D. Gutmann, Allyson Rugg, Cindy L. Bruyère, Sue Ellen Haupt, Flavio Lehner, Rachel McCrary, Andrew J. Newman, and Andy Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1117–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1117-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a perceived mismatch between the spatial scales on which global climate models can produce data and those needed for water management decisions. However, poor communication of specific metrics relevant to local decisions is also a problem. We assessed the credibility of a set of water management decision metrics in the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2). CESM2 shows potentially greater use of its output in long-range water management decisions.
Johannes Mikkola, Alexander Gohm, Victoria A. Sinclair, and Federico Bianchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 511–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-511-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-511-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the influence of valley floor inclination on diurnal winds and passive tracer transport within idealised mountain valleys using numerical simulations. The valley inclination strengthens the daytime up-valley winds but only up to a certain point. Beyond that critical angle, the winds weaken again. The inclined valleys transport the tracers higher up in the free troposphere, which would, for example, lead to higher potential for long-range transport.
Rodrigo Aguayo, Fabien Maussion, Lilian Schuster, Marius Schaefer, Alexis Caro, Patrick Schmitt, Jonathan Mackay, Lizz Ultee, Jorge Leon-Muñoz, and Mauricio Aguayo
The Cryosphere, 18, 5383–5406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting how much water will come from glaciers in the future is a complex task, and there are many factors that make it uncertain. Using a glacier model, we explored 1920 scenarios for each glacier in the Patagonian Andes. We found that the choice of the historical climate data was the most important factor, while other factors such as different data sources, climate models and emission scenarios played a smaller role.
Lorenz Hänchen, Emily Potter, Cornelia Klein, Pierluigi Calanca, Fabien Maussion, Wolfgang Gurgiser, and Georg Wohlfahrt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3263, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3263, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In semi-arid regions, the timing and duration of the rainy season are crucial for agriculture. This study introduces a new framework for improving estimations of start and end of the rainy season by testing how well they fit local vegetation data. We improve the performance of existing methods and present a new one with higher performance. Our findings can help to make informed decisions about water usage, and the framework can be applied to other regions as well.
Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, David R. Rounce, Rodrigo Aguayo, Nicolas Champollion, Loris Compagno, Romain Hugonnet, Ben Marzeion, Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 18, 5045–5066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers are major contributors to sea-level rise and act as key water resources. Here, we model the global evolution of glaciers under the latest generation of climate scenarios. We show that the type of observations used for model calibration can strongly affect the projections at the local scale. Our newly projected 21st century global mass loss is higher than the current community estimate as reported in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Lea Hartl, Patrick Schmitt, Lilian Schuster, Kay Helfricht, Jakob Abermann, and Fabien Maussion
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3146, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use regional observations of glacier area and volume change to inform glacier evolution modeling in the Ötztal and Stubai range (Austrian Alps) until 2100 in different climate scenarios. Glaciers in the region lost 23 % of their volume between 2006 and 2017. Under current warming trajectories, glacier loss in the region is expected to be near total by 2075. We show that integrating regional calibration and validation data in glacier models is important to improve confidence in projections.
Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5123–5144, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a coupling of the large-scale glacier model OGGM and the hydrological model CWatM. Projected future increase in discharge is less strong while future decrease in discharge is stronger when glacier runoff is explicitly included in the large-scale hydrological model. This is because glacier runoff is projected to decrease in nearly all basins. We conclude that an improved glacier representation can prevent underestimating future discharge changes in large river basins.
Finn Wimberly, Lizz Ultee, Lilian Schuster, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Fabien Maussion, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1778, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 1 % of initial glacier cover.
Marin Kneib, Amaury Dehecq, Fanny Brun, Fatima Karbou, Laurane Charrier, Silvan Leinss, Patrick Wagnon, and Fabien Maussion
The Cryosphere, 18, 2809–2830, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanches are important for the mass balance of mountain glaciers, but few data exist on where and when they occur and which glaciers they affect the most. We developed an approach to map avalanches over large glaciated areas and long periods of time using satellite radar data. The application of this method to various regions in the Alps and High Mountain Asia reveals the variability of avalanches on these glaciers and provides key data to better represent these processes in glacier models.
Ross Mower, Ethan D. Gutmann, Glen E. Liston, Jessica Lundquist, and Soren Rasmussen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4135–4154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4135-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Higher-resolution model simulations are better at capturing winter snowpack changes across space and time. However, increasing resolution also increases the computational requirements. This work provides an overview of changes made to a distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) to allow it to leverage high-performance computing resources. Continental simulations that were previously estimated to take 120 d can now be performed in 5 h.
Nevio Babić, Bianca Adler, Alexander Gohm, Manuela Lehner, and Norbert Kalthoff
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 609–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Day-to-day weather over mountains remains a significant challenge in the domain of weather forecast. Using a combination of measurements from several instrument platforms, including Doppler lidars, aircraft, and radiosondes, we developed a method that relies primarily on turbulence characteristics of the lowest layers of the atmosphere. As a result, we identified new ways in which atmosphere behaves over mountains during daytime, which may serve to further improve forecasting capabilities.
Larissa van der Laan, Anouk Vlug, Adam A. Scaife, Fabien Maussion, and Kristian Förster
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-387, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Usually, glacier models are supplied with climate information from long (e.g. 100 year) simulations by global climate models. In this paper, we test the feasibility of supplying glacier models with shorter simulations, to get more accurate information on 5–10 year time scales. Reliable information on these time scales is very important, especially for water management experts to know how much meltwater to expect, for rivers, agriculture and drinking water.
Jordi Bolibar, Facundo Sapienza, Fabien Maussion, Redouane Lguensat, Bert Wouters, and Fernando Pérez
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6671–6687, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6671-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new modelling framework combining numerical methods with machine learning. Using this approach, we focused on understanding how ice moves within glaciers, and we successfully learnt a prescribed law describing ice movement for 17 glaciers worldwide as a proof of concept. Our framework has the potential to discover important laws governing glacier processes, aiding our understanding of glacier physics and their contribution to water resources and sea-level rise.
Dylan Reynolds, Ethan Gutmann, Bert Kruyt, Michael Haugeneder, Tobias Jonas, Franziska Gerber, Michael Lehning, and Rebecca Mott
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5049–5068, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5049-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5049-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The challenge of running geophysical models is often compounded by the question of where to obtain appropriate data to give as input to a model. Here we present the HICAR model, a simplified atmospheric model capable of running at spatial resolutions of hectometers for long time series or over large domains. This makes physically consistent atmospheric data available at the spatial and temporal scales needed for some terrestrial modeling applications, for example seasonal snow forecasting.
Matthias Göbel, Stefano Serafin, and Mathias W. Rotach
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 725–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-725-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-725-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On summer days over mountains, upslope winds transport moist air towards mountain tops and beyond, making local rain showers more likely. We use idealized simulations to investigate how mountain steepness affects this mechanism. We find that steeper mountains lead to a delayed onset and lower intensity of the storms, because less moisture accumulates over the ridges and the thermal updraft zone at the top is narrower and thus more prone to the intrusion of dry air from the environment.
Hetal P. Dabhi, Mathias W. Rotach, and Michael Oberguggenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2123–2147, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2123-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Spatiotemporally consistent high-resolution precipitation data on climate are needed for climate change impact assessments, but obtaining these data is challenging for areas with complex topography. We present a model that generates synthetic gridded daily precipitation data at a 1 km spatial resolution using observed meteorological station data as input, thereby providing data where historical observations are unavailable. We evaluate this model for a mountainous region in the European Alps.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Cornelius Immanuel Weiß, Alexander Gohm, Mathias Walter Rotach, and Thomas Torora Minda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1003–1019, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1003-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1003-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Two gap flow events in the Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia were investigated based on observations, ERA5 reanalysis data, and simulations with the numerical weather prediction model WRF. The main focus was on strong winds in the area around Lake Abaya since the winds may generate waves on the lake which help to sustain the lake's ecology. That is important in terms of food supply for the local population. The gap winds exhibit a diurnal cycle and a seasonal dependence.
Helen Claire Ward, Mathias Walter Rotach, Alexander Gohm, Martin Graus, Thomas Karl, Maren Haid, Lukas Umek, and Thomas Muschinski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6559–6593, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6559-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how cities and their surroundings influence turbulent exchange processes responsible for weather and climate. Analysis of a 4-year observational dataset for the Alpine city of Innsbruck reveals several similarities with other (flat) city centre sites. However, the mountain setting leads to characteristic daily and seasonal flow patterns (valley winds) and downslope windstorms that have a marked effect on temperature, wind speed, turbulence and pollutant concentration.
Lorenz Hänchen, Cornelia Klein, Fabien Maussion, Wolfgang Gurgiser, Pierluigi Calanca, and Georg Wohlfahrt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 595–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-595-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-595-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To date, farmers' perceptions of hydrological changes do not match analysis of meteorological data. In contrast to rainfall data, we find greening of vegetation, indicating increased water availability in the past decades. The start of the season is highly variable, making farmers' perceptions comprehensible. We show that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation has complex effects on vegetation seasonality but does not drive the greening we observe. Improved onset forecasts could help local farmers.
Manuel Saigger and Alexander Gohm
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 279–303, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-279-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-279-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this work a special form of a foehn wind in an Alpine valley with a large-scale northwesterly flow is investigated. The study clarifies the origin of the air mass and the mechanisms by which this air enters the valley. A trajectory analysis shows that the location where the main airstream passes the crest line is more suitable for a foehn classification than the local or large-scale wind direction. Mountain waves and a lee rotor were crucial for importing air into the valley.
Matthias Göbel, Stefano Serafin, and Mathias W. Rotach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 669–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-669-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-669-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present WRFlux, an open-source software that allows numerically consistent, time-averaged budget evaluation of prognostic variables for the numerical weather prediction model WRF as well as the transformation of the budget equations from the terrain-following grid of the model to the Cartesian coordinate system. We demonstrate the performance and a possible application of WRFlux and illustrate the detrimental effects of approximations that are inconsistent with the model numerics.
Esteban Alonso-González, Ethan Gutmann, Kristoffer Aalstad, Abbas Fayad, Marine Bouchet, and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4455–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4455-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Snow water resources represent a key hydrological resource for the Mediterranean regions, where most of the precipitation falls during the winter months. This is the case for Lebanon, where snowpack represents 31 % of the spring flow. We have used models to generate snow information corrected by means of remote sensing snow cover retrievals. Our results highlight the high temporal variability in the snowpack in Lebanon and its sensitivity to further warming caused by its hypsography.
Johannes Horak, Marlis Hofer, Ethan Gutmann, Alexander Gohm, and Mathias W. Rotach
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1657–1680, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1657-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1657-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This process-based evaluation of the atmospheric model ICAR is conducted to derive recommendations to increase the likelihood of its results being correct for the right reasons. We conclude that a different diagnosis of the atmospheric background state is necessary, as well as a model top at an elevation of at least 10 km. Alternative boundary conditions at the top were not found to be effective in reducing this model top elevation. The results have wide implications for future ICAR studies.
Rhae Sung Kim, Sujay Kumar, Carrie Vuyovich, Paul Houser, Jessica Lundquist, Lawrence Mudryk, Michael Durand, Ana Barros, Edward J. Kim, Barton A. Forman, Ethan D. Gutmann, Melissa L. Wrzesien, Camille Garnaud, Melody Sandells, Hans-Peter Marshall, Nicoleta Cristea, Justin M. Pflug, Jeremy Johnston, Yueqian Cao, David Mocko, and Shugong Wang
The Cryosphere, 15, 771–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-771-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-771-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
High SWE uncertainty is observed in mountainous and forested regions, highlighting the need for high-resolution snow observations in these regions. Substantial uncertainty in snow water storage in Tundra regions and the dominance of water storage in these regions points to the need for high-accuracy snow estimation. Finally, snow measurements during the melt season are most needed at high latitudes, whereas observations at near peak snow accumulations are most beneficial over the midlatitudes.
Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, Lukas Langhamer, and Gina E. Moseley
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and moisture sources over an arid region in northeast Greenland are investigated from 1979 to 2017 by a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic driven by reanalysis data. Dominant winter moisture sources are the North Atlantic above 45° N. In summer local and north Eurasian continental sources dominate. In positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, evaporation and moisture transport from the Norwegian Sea are stronger, resulting in more precipitation.
Bettina Richter, Alec van Herwijnen, Mathias W. Rotach, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2873–2888, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2873-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2873-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the sensitivity of modeled snow instability to uncertainties in meteorological input, typically found in complex terrain. The formation of the weak layer was very robust due to the long dry period, indicated by a widespread avalanche problem. Once a weak layer has formed, precipitation mostly determined slab and weak layer properties and hence snow instability. When spatially assessing snow instability for avalanche forecasting, accurate precipitation patterns have to be known.
César Deschamps-Berger, Simon Gascoin, Etienne Berthier, Jeffrey Deems, Ethan Gutmann, Amaury Dehecq, David Shean, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 14, 2925–2940, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2925-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2925-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate a recent method to map snow depth based on satellite photogrammetry. We compare it with accurate airborne laser-scanning measurements in the Sierra Nevada, USA. We find that satellite data capture the relationship between snow depth and elevation at the catchment scale and also small-scale features like snow drifts and avalanche deposits. We conclude that satellite photogrammetry stands out as a convenient method to estimate the spatial distribution of snow depth in high mountains.
Bettina Richter, Jürg Schweizer, Mathias W. Rotach, and Alec van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 13, 3353–3366, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Information on snow stability is important for avalanche forecasting. To improve the stability estimation in the snow cover model SNOWPACK, we suggested an improved parameterization for the critical crack length. We compared 3 years of field data to SNOWPACK simulations. The match between observed and modeled critical crack lengths greatly improved, and critical weak layers appear more prominently in the modeled vertical profile of critical crack length.
Julia Eis, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 3317–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To provide estimates of past glacier mass changes, an adequate initial state is required. However, information about past glacier states at regional or global scales is largely incomplete. Our study presents a new way to initialize the Open Global Glacier Model from past climate information and present-day geometries. We show that even with perfectly known but incomplete boundary conditions, the problem of model initialization leads to nonunique solutions, and we propose an ensemble approach.
Beatriz Recinos, Fabien Maussion, Timo Rothenpieler, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 2657–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We have implemented a frontal ablation parameterization into the Open Global Glacier Model and have shown that inversion methods based on mass conservation systematically underestimate the mass turnover (and therefore the thickness) of tidewater glaciers when neglecting frontal ablation. This underestimation can rise up to 19 % on a regional scale. Not accounting for frontal ablation will have an impact on the estimate of the glaciers’ potential contribution to sea level rise.
Christian Mallaun, Andreas Giez, Georg J. Mayr, and Mathias W. Rotach
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9769–9786, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9769-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9769-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents airborne measurements in shallow convection over land to investigate the dynamic properties of clouds focusing on possible narrow downdraughts in the surrounding of the clouds. A characteristic narrow downdraught region (
subsiding shell) is found directly outside the cloud borders for the mean vertical wind distribution. The
subsiding shellresults from the distribution of the highly variable updraughts and downdraughts in the near vicinity of the cloud.
Fabien Maussion, Anton Butenko, Nicolas Champollion, Matthias Dusch, Julia Eis, Kévin Fourteau, Philipp Gregor, Alexander H. Jarosch, Johannes Landmann, Felix Oesterle, Beatriz Recinos, Timo Rothenpieler, Anouk Vlug, Christian T. Wild, and Ben Marzeion
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-909-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-909-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining subsystems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable community-driven model exists. Here we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM; www.oggm.org), developed to provide a modular and open-source numerical model framework for simulating past and future change of any glacier in the world.
Gab Abramowitz, Nadja Herger, Ethan Gutmann, Dorit Hammerling, Reto Knutti, Martin Leduc, Ruth Lorenz, Robert Pincus, and Gavin A. Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Best estimates of future climate projections typically rely on a range of climate models from different international research institutions. However, it is unclear how independent these different estimates are, and, for example, the degree to which their agreement implies robustness. This work presents a review of the varied and disparate attempts to quantify and address model dependence within multi-model climate projection ensembles.
Tobias Zolles, Fabien Maussion, Stephan Peter Galos, Wolfgang Gurgiser, and Lindsey Nicholson
The Cryosphere, 13, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-469-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-469-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A mass and energy balance model was subjected to sensitivity and uncertainty analysis on two different Alpine glaciers. The global sensitivity analysis allowed for a mass balance measurement independent assessment of the model sensitivity and functioned as a reduction of the model free parameter space. A novel approach of a multi-objective optimization estimates the uncertainty of the simulated mass balance and the energy fluxes. The final model uncertainty is up to 1300 kg m−3 per year.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Ulrich Strasser, Thomas Marke, Ludwig Braun, Heidi Escher-Vetter, Irmgard Juen, Michael Kuhn, Fabien Maussion, Christoph Mayer, Lindsey Nicholson, Klaus Niedertscheider, Rudolf Sailer, Johann Stötter, Markus Weber, and Georg Kaser
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 151–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-151-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-151-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A hydrometeorological and glaciological data set is presented with recordings from several research sites in the Rofental (1891–3772 m a.s.l., Ötztal Alps, Austria). The data sets are spanning 150 years and represent a unique pool of high mountain observations, enabling combined research of atmospheric, cryospheric and hydrological processes in complex terrain, and the development of state-of-the-art hydroclimatological and glacier mass balance models.
Cameron Wobus, Ethan Gutmann, Russell Jones, Matthew Rissing, Naoki Mizukami, Mark Lorie, Hardee Mahoney, Andrew W. Wood, David Mills, and Jeremy Martinich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2199–2211, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2199-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2199-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We linked modeled changes in the frequency of historical 100-year flood events to a national inventory of built assets within mapped floodplains of the United States. This allowed us to project changes in inland flooding damages nationwide under two alternative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our results suggest that more aggressive GHG reductions could reduce the projected monetary damages from inland flooding, potentially saving billions of dollars annually by the end of the century.
Stephan Peter Galos, Christoph Klug, Fabien Maussion, Federico Covi, Lindsey Nicholson, Lorenzo Rieg, Wolfgang Gurgiser, Thomas Mölg, and Georg Kaser
The Cryosphere, 11, 1417–1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1417-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1417-2017, 2017
Daniel Farinotti, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, Garry K. C. Clarke, Johannes J. Fürst, Holger Frey, Prateek Gantayat, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Claire Girard, Matthias Huss, Paul W. Leclercq, Andreas Linsbauer, Horst Machguth, Carlos Martin, Fabien Maussion, Mathieu Morlighem, Cyrille Mosbeux, Ankur Pandit, Andrea Portmann, Antoine Rabatel, RAAJ Ramsankaran, Thomas J. Reerink, Olivier Sanchez, Peter A. Stentoft, Sangita Singh Kumari, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Brian Anderson, Toby Benham, Daniel Binder, Julian A. Dowdeswell, Andrea Fischer, Kay Helfricht, Stanislav Kutuzov, Ivan Lavrentiev, Robert McNabb, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Huilin Li, and Liss M. Andreassen
The Cryosphere, 11, 949–970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
ITMIX – the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment – was the first coordinated performance assessment for models inferring glacier ice thickness from surface characteristics. Considering 17 different models and 21 different test cases, we show that although solutions of individual models can differ considerably, an ensemble average can yield uncertainties in the order of 10 ± 24 % the mean ice thickness. Ways forward for improving such estimates are sketched.
Daniel Leukauf, Alexander Gohm, and Mathias W. Rotach
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13049–13066, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13049-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13049-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Since populated valleys suffer often from poor air quality, it is of interest to better understand the various mechanisms relevant to remove pollutants from the valley atmosphere. One mechanism is the transport by along-slope flows, which are generated during fair-weather days. In this study we quantify the amount of tracer that is removed from a valley atmosphere and the amount that is re-circulated within the valleys. For this study we are using the numerical weather model WRF.
Wolfgang Gurgiser, Irmgard Juen, Katrin Singer, Martina Neuburger, Simone Schauwecker, Marlis Hofer, and Georg Kaser
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 499–515, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-499-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-499-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Working on the interface of water availability and water demand in a small Andean catchment, peasants’ reports on detrimental precipitation changes during the last decades have attracted our scientific interest. We could not confirm any precipitation trends in this period with nearby precipitation records, but we found precipitation patterns that very likely pose challenges for rain-fed farming – in addition to potential other stresses by environmental and sociopolitical changes.
S. Biskop, F. Maussion, P. Krause, and M. Fink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 209–225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-209-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-209-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, the hydrological model J2000g was extended and applied to four selected endorheic lake basins in the southern-central part of the TP aiming to provide a more quantitative understanding of the key factors controlling their water balance. The model results indicated that the relative contribution of glacier runoff to total water inflow (between 14 and 30 %) plays a less important role compared to runoff generation from rainfall and snowmelt in non-glacierized land areas.
N. Kljun, P. Calanca, M. W. Rotach, and H. P. Schmid
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3695–3713, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3695-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3695-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Flux footprint models describe the surface area of influence of a flux measurement. They are used for designing flux tower sites, and for interpretation of flux measurements. The two-dimensional footprint parameterisation (FFP) presented here is suitable for processing large data sets, and, unlike other fast footprint models, FFP is applicable to daytime or night-time measurements, fluxes from short masts over grassland to tall towers over mature forests, and even to airborne flux measurements.
M. N. Lang, A. Gohm, and J. S. Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11981–11998, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11981-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11981-2015, 2015
F. Maussion, W. Gurgiser, M. Großhauser, G. Kaser, and B. Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 9, 1663–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1663-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1663-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Using a newly developed open-source tool, we downscale the glacier surface energy and mass balance fluxes at Shallap Glacier. This allows an unprecedented quantification of the ENSO influence on a tropical glacier at climatological time scales (1980-2013). We find a stronger and steadier anti-correlation between Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) and glacier mass balance than previously reported and provide keys to understand its mechanism.
E. Collier, F. Maussion, L. I. Nicholson, T. Mölg, W. W. Immerzeel, and A. B. G. Bush
The Cryosphere, 9, 1617–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1617-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1617-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of surface debris on glacier energy and mass fluxes and on atmosphere-glacier feedbacks in the Karakoram range, by including debris in an interactively coupled atmosphere-glacier model. The model is run from 1 May to 1 October 2004, with a simple specification of debris thickness. We find an appreciable reduction in ablation that exceeds 5m w.e. on glacier tongues, as well as significant alterations to near-surface air temperatures and boundary layer dynamics.
G. Massaro, I. Stiperski, B. Pospichal, and M. W. Rotach
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 3355–3367, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-3355-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-3355-2015, 2015
J. S. Wagner, A. Gohm, and M. W. Rotach
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6589–6603, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6589-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6589-2015, 2015
J. Curio, F. Maussion, and D. Scherer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 109–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-109-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-109-2015, 2015
M. Hofer, B. Marzeion, and T. Mölg
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 579–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-579-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-579-2015, 2015
E. Collier, L. I. Nicholson, B. W. Brock, F. Maussion, R. Essery, and A. B. G. Bush
The Cryosphere, 8, 1429–1444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1429-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1429-2014, 2014
E. Dietze, F. Maussion, M. Ahlborn, B. Diekmann, K. Hartmann, K. Henkel, T. Kasper, G. Lockot, S. Opitz, and T. Haberzettl
Clim. Past, 10, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-91-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-91-2014, 2014
K. Zink, A. Pauling, M. W. Rotach, H. Vogel, P. Kaufmann, and B. Clot
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1961–1975, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1961-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1961-2013, 2013
E. Collier, T. Mölg, F. Maussion, D. Scherer, C. Mayer, and A. B. G. Bush
The Cryosphere, 7, 779–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-779-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-779-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
CH-RUN: a deep-learning-based spatially contiguous runoff reconstruction for Switzerland
Runoff component quantification and future streamflow projection in a large mountainous basin based on a multidata-constrained cryospheric–hydrological model
Exploring the potential processes controlling changes in precipitation–runoff relationships in non-stationary environments
A diversity-centric strategy for the selection of spatio-temporal training data for LSTM-based streamflow forecasting
Simulating the Tone River eastward diversion project in Japan carried out 4 centuries ago
Lack of robustness of hydrological models: a large-sample diagnosis and an attempt to identify hydrological and climatic drivers
Achieving water budget closure through physical hydrological process modelling: insights from a large-sample study
Heavy-tailed flood peak distributions: what is the effect of the spatial variability of rainfall and runoff generation?
State updating of the Xin'anjiang model: joint assimilating streamflow and multi-source soil moisture data via the asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter with enhanced error models
Improving the hydrological consistency of a process-based solute-transport model by simultaneous calibration of streamflow and stream concentrations
Leveraging a time-series event separation method to disentangle time-varying hydrologic controls on streamflow – application to wildfire-affected catchments
The significance of the leaf area index for evapotranspiration estimation in SWAT-T for characteristic land cover types of West Africa
Improved representation of soil moisture processes through incorporation of cosmic-ray neutron count measurements in a large-scale hydrologic model
Spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow in water-scarce Mediterranean basins
A large-sample modelling approach towards integrating streamflow and evaporation data for the Spanish catchments
Technical note: An approach for handling multiple temporal frequencies with different input dimensions using a single LSTM cell
Seasonal variation in land cover estimates reveals sensitivities and opportunities for environmental models
Estimating response times, flow velocities, and roughness coefficients of Canadian Prairie basins
Learning landscape features from streamflow with autoencoders
On the use of streamflow transformations for hydrological model calibration
Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators
Multi-scale soil moisture data and process-based modeling reveal the importance of lateral groundwater flow in a subarctic catchment
CONCN: A high-resolution, integrated surface water-groundwater ParFlow modeling platform of continental China
Catchment response to climatic variability: implications for root zone storage and streamflow predictions
Hybrid hydrological modeling for large alpine basins: a semi-distributed approach
Karst aquifer discharge response to rainfall interpreted as anomalous transport
HESS Opinions: Never train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network on a single basin
Large-sample hydrology – a few camels or a whole caravan?
Comment on “Are soils overrated in hydrology?” by Gao et al. (2023)
Projections of streamflow intermittence under climate change in European drying river networks
Multi-decadal fluctuations in root zone storage capacity through vegetation adaptation to hydro-climatic variability have minor effects on the hydrological response in the Neckar River basin, Germany
Technical note: What does the Standardized Streamflow Index actually reflect? Insights and implications for hydrological drought analysis
Extended range forecasting of stream water temperature with deep learning models
Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China
On the importance of plant phenology in the evaporative process of a semi-arid woodland: could it be why satellite-based evaporation estimates in the miombo differ?
Analyzing the generalization capabilities of hybrid hydrological models for extrapolation to extreme events
Regionalization of GR4J model parameters for river flow prediction in Paraná, Brazil
Evolution of river regimes in the Mekong River basin over 8 decades and the role of dams in recent hydrological extremes
Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea
To what extent do flood-inducing storm events change future flood hazards?
When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling
Assessing the value of high-resolution rainfall and streamflow data for hydrological modeling: An analysis based on 63 catchments in southeast China
Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble
Impacts of climate and land surface change on catchment evapotranspiration and runoff from 1951 to 2020 in Saxony, Germany
Quantifying and reducing flood forecast uncertainty by the CHUP-BMA method
Developing a tile drainage module for the Cold Regions Hydrological Model: lessons from a farm in southern Ontario, Canada
To bucket or not to bucket? Analyzing the performance and interpretability of hybrid hydrological models with dynamic parameterization
Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological modelling and regional climate projections
HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood
Scale-dependency in modeling nivo-glacial hydrological systems: the case of the Arolla basin, Switzerland
Basil Kraft, Michael Schirmer, William H. Aeberhard, Massimiliano Zappa, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Lukas Gudmundsson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1061–1082, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1061-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study reconstructs daily runoff in Switzerland (1962–2023) using a deep-learning model, providing a spatially contiguous dataset on a medium-sized catchment grid. The model outperforms traditional hydrological methods, revealing shifts in Swiss water resources, including more frequent dry years and declining summer runoff. The reconstruction is publicly available.
Mengjiao Zhang, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1033–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1033-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1033-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Owing to differences in the existing published results, we conducted a detailed analysis of the runoff components and future trends in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin and found that the contributions of snowmelt and glacier melt runoff to streamflow (both ~5 %) are limited and much lower than previous results. The streamflow in this area will continuously increase in the future, but the overestimated contribution of glacier melt could lead to an underestimation of this increasing trend.
Tian Lan, Tongfang Li, Hongbo Zhang, Jiefeng Wu, Yongqin David Chen, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 903–924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-903-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-903-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops an integrated framework based on the novel Driving index for changes in Precipitation–Runoff Relationships (DPRR) to explore the controlling changes in precipitation–runoff relationships in non-stationary environments. According to the quantitative results of the candidate driving factors, the possible process explanations for changes in the precipitation–runoff relationships are deduced. The main contribution offers a comprehensive understanding of hydrological processes.
Everett Snieder and Usman T. Khan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 785–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-785-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Improving the accuracy of flood forecasts is paramount to minimising flood damage. Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being applied for flood forecasting. Such models are typically trained on large historic hydrometeorological datasets. In this work, we evaluate methods for selecting training datasets that maximise the spatio-temporal diversity of the represented hydrological processes. Empirical results showcase the importance of hydrological diversity in training ML models.
Joško Trošelj and Naota Hanasaki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 753–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-753-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-753-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first distributed hydrological simulation which confirms claims raised by historians that the eastward diversion project of the Tone River in Japan was conducted 4 centuries ago to increase low flows and subsequent travelling possibilities surrounding the capital, Edo (Tokyo), using inland navigation. We showed that great steps forward can be made for improving quality of life with small human engineering waterworks and small interventions in the regime of natural flows.
Léonard Santos, Vazken Andréassian, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Göran Lindström, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, Lila Collet, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work investigates how hydrological models are transferred to a period in which climate conditions are different to the ones of the period in which they were set up. The robustness assessment test built to detect dependencies between model error and climatic drivers was applied to three hydrological models in 352 catchments in Denmark, France and Sweden. Potential issues are seen in a significant number of catchments for the models, even though the catchments differ for each model.
Xudong Zheng, Dengfeng Liu, Shengzhi Huang, Hao Wang, and Xianmeng Meng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 627–653, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-627-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Water budget non-closure is a widespread phenomenon among multisource datasets which undermines the robustness of hydrological inferences. This study proposes a Multisource Dataset Correction Framework grounded in Physical Hydrological Process Modelling to enhance water budget closure, termed PHPM-MDCF. We examined the efficiency and robustness of the framework using the CAMELS dataset and achieved an average reduction of 49 % in total water budget residuals across 475 CONUS basins.
Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Viet Dung Nguyen, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 447–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Flood peak distributions indicate how likely the occurrence of an extreme flood is at a certain river. If the distribution has a so-called heavy tail, extreme floods are more likely than might be anticipated. We find heavier tails in small catchments compared to large catchments, and spatially variable rainfall leads to a lower occurrence probability of extreme floods. Spatially variable runoff does not show effects. The results can improve estimations of probabilities of extreme floods.
Junfu Gong, Xingwen Liu, Cheng Yao, Zhijia Li, Albrecht H. Weerts, Qiaoling Li, Satish Bastola, Yingchun Huang, and Junzeng Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 335–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-335-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces a new method to improve flood forecasting by combining soil moisture and streamflow data using an advanced data assimilation technique. By integrating field and reanalysis soil moisture data and assimilating this with streamflow measurements, we aim to enhance the accuracy of flood predictions. This approach reduces the accumulation of past errors in the initial conditions at the start of the forecast, helping to better prepare for and respond to floods.
Jordy Salmon-Monviola, Ophélie Fovet, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 127–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-127-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To increase the predictive power of hydrological models, it is necessary to improve their consistency, i.e. their physical realism, which is measured by the ability of the model to reproduce observed system dynamics. Using a model to represent the dynamics of water and nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in an agricultural catchment, we showed that using solute-concentration data for calibration is useful to improve the hydrological consistency of the model.
Haley A. Canham, Belize Lane, Colin B. Phillips, and Brendan P. Murphy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 27–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of watershed disturbances has proved challenging to disentangle from natural streamflow variability. This study evaluates the influence of time-varying hydrologic controls on rainfall–runoff in undisturbed and wildfire-disturbed watersheds using a novel time-series event separation method. Across watersheds, water year type and season influenced rainfall–runoff patterns. Accounting for these controls enabled clearer isolation of wildfire effects.
Fabian Merk, Timo Schaffhauser, Faizan Anwar, Ye Tuo, Jean-Martial Cohard, and Markus Disse
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5511–5539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Evapotranspiration (ET) is computed from the vegetation (plant transpiration) and soil (soil evaporation). In western Africa, plant transpiration correlates with vegetation growth. Vegetation is often represented using the leaf area index (LAI). In this study, we evaluate the importance of the LAI for ET calculation. We take a close look at this interaction and highlight its relevance. Our work contributes to the understanding of terrestrial water cycle processes .
Eshrat Fatima, Rohini Kumar, Sabine Attinger, Maren Kaluza, Oldrich Rakovec, Corinna Rebmann, Rafael Rosolem, Sascha E. Oswald, Luis Samaniego, Steffen Zacharias, and Martin Schrön
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5419–5441, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study establishes a framework to incorporate cosmic-ray neutron measurements into the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). We evaluate different approaches to estimate neutron counts within the mHM using the Desilets equation, with uniformly and non-uniformly weighted average soil moisture, and the physically based code COSMIC. The data improved not only soil moisture simulations but also the parameterisation of evapotranspiration in the model.
Laia Estrada, Xavier Garcia, Joan Saló-Grau, Rafael Marcé, Antoni Munné, and Vicenç Acuña
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5353–5373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5353-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling is a powerful tool to support decision-making. We assessed spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow for 2001–2022 with a hydrological model, integrating stakeholder expert knowledge on management operations. The results provide insight into how climate change and anthropogenic pressures affect water resources availability in regions vulnerable to water scarcity, thus raising the need for sustainable management practices and integrated hydrological modelling.
Patricio Yeste, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Sonia R. Gámiz-Fortis, Yolanda Castro-Díez, Axel Bronstert, and María Jesús Esteban-Parra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5331–5352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Integrating streamflow and evaporation data can help improve the physical realism of hydrologic models. We investigate the capabilities of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) to reproduce both hydrologic variables for 189 headwater located in Spain. Results from sensitivity analyses indicate that adding two vegetation parameters is enough to improve the representation of evaporation and that the performance of VIC exceeded that of the largest modelling effort currently available in Spain.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Ralf Loritz, and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3355, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance for rainfall-runoff hydrological modeling. However, most studies focus on daily-scale predictions, limiting the benefits of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions in applications like flood forecasting. In this study, we introduce a new architecture, multi-frequency LSTM (MF-LSTM), designed to use input of various temporal frequencies to produce sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions at a moderate computational cost.
Daniel T. Myers, David Jones, Diana Oviedo-Vargas, John Paul Schmit, Darren L. Ficklin, and Xuesong Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5295–5310, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5295-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how streamflow and water quality models respond to land cover data collected by satellites during the growing season versus the non-growing season. The land cover data showed more trees during the growing season and more built areas during the non-growing season. We next found that the use of non-growing season data resulted in a higher modeled nutrient export to streams. Knowledge of these sensitivities would be particularly important when models inform water resource management.
Kevin R. Shook, Paul H. Whitfield, Christopher Spence, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5173–5192, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies suggest that the velocities of water running off landscapes in the Canadian Prairies may be much smaller than generally assumed. Analyses of historical flows for 23 basins in central Alberta show that many of the rivers responded more slowly and that the flows are much slower than would be estimated from equations developed elsewhere. The effects of slow flow velocities on the development of hydrological models of the region are discussed, as are the possible causes.
Alberto Bassi, Marvin Höge, Antonietta Mira, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Carlo Albert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4971–4988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The goal is to remove the impact of meteorological drivers in order to uncover the unique landscape fingerprints of a catchment from streamflow data. Our results reveal an optimal two-feature summary for most catchments, with a third feature associated with aridity and intermittent flow that is needed for challenging cases. Baseflow index, aridity, and soil or vegetation attributes strongly correlate with learnt features, indicating their importance for streamflow prediction.
Guillaume Thirel, Léonard Santos, Olivier Delaigue, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4837–4860, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how mathematical transformations impact calibrated hydrological model simulations. We assess how 11 transformations behave over the complete range of streamflows. Extreme transformations lead to models that are specialized for extreme streamflows but show poor performance outside the range of targeted streamflows and are less robust. We show that no a priori assumption about transformations can be taken as warranted.
Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4685–4713, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4685-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale hydrologic simulators are a needed tool to explore complex watershed processes and how they may evolve with a changing climate. However, calibrating them can be difficult because they are costly to run and have many unknown parameters. We implement a state-of-the-art approach to model calibration using neural networks with a set of experiments based on streamflow in the upper Colorado River basin.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Kersti Leppä, Hannu Marttila, Pertti Ala-aho, Giulia Mazzotti, Terhikki Manninen, Mika Korkiakoski, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, and Samuli Launiainen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4643–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4643-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used hydrological models, field measurements, and satellite-based data to study the soil moisture dynamics in a subarctic catchment. The role of groundwater was studied with different ways to model the groundwater dynamics and via comparisons to the observational data. The choice of groundwater model was shown to have a strong impact, and representation of lateral flow was important to capture wet soil conditions. Our results provide insights for ecohydrological studies in boreal regions.
Chen Yang, Zitong Jia, Wenjie Xu, Zhongwang Wei, Xiaolang Zhang, Yiguang Zou, Jeffrey McDonnell, Laura Condon, Yongjiu Dai, and Reed Maxwell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-292, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-292, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We developed the first high-resolution, integrated surface water-groundwater hydrologic model of the entire continental China using ParFlow. The model shows good performance of streamflow and water table depth when compared to global data products and observations. It is essential for water resources management and decision making in China within a consistent framework in the changing world. It also has significant implications for similar modeling in other places in the world.
Nienke Tempel, Laurène Bouaziz, Riccardo Taormina, Ellis van Noppen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4577–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the impact of climatic variability on root zone water storage capacities and, thus, on hydrological predictions. Analysing data from 286 areas in Europe and the US, we found that, despite some variations in root zone storage capacity due to changing climatic conditions over multiple decades, these changes are generally minor and have a limited effect on water storage and river flow predictions.
Bu Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, Mahmut Tudaji, Li Qin, and Guangheng Ni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4521–4538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper developed hybrid semi-distributed hydrological models by employing a process-based model as the backbone and utilizing deep learning to parameterize and replace internal modules. The main contribution is to provide a high-performance tool enriched with explicit hydrological knowledge for hydrological prediction and to improve understanding about the hydrological sensitivities to climate change in large alpine basins.
Dan Elhanati, Nadine Goeppert, and Brian Berkowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4239–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4239-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A continuous time random walk framework was developed to allow modeling of a karst aquifer discharge response to measured rainfall. The application of the numerical model yielded robust fits between modeled and measured discharge values, especially for the distinctive long tails found during recession times. The findings shed light on the interplay of slow and fast flow in the karst system and establish the application of the model for simulating flow and transport in such systems.
Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4187–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, a special type of neural-network architecture became increasingly popular in hydrology literature. However, in most applications, this model was applied as a one-to-one replacement for hydrology models without adapting or rethinking the experimental setup. In this opinion paper, we show how this is almost always a bad decision and how using these kinds of models requires the use of large-sample hydrology data sets.
Franziska Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4219–4237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the differences between the forcing data included in three CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB) and the forcing data included for the same catchments in the Caravan dataset affect model calibration considerably. The model performance dropped when the data from the Caravan dataset were used instead of the original data. Most of the model performance drop could be attributed to the differences in precipitation data. However, differences were largest for the potential evapotranspiration data.
Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4059–4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Gao et al. (2023) question the importance of soil in hydrology, sparking debate. We acknowledge some valid points but critique their broad, unsubstantiated views on soil's role. Our response highlights three key areas: (1) the false divide between ecosystem-centric and soil-centric approaches, (2) the vital yet varied impact of soil properties, and (3) the call for a scale-aware framework. We aim to unify these perspectives, enhancing hydrology's comprehensive understanding.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Alexandre Devers, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Claire Lauvernet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Núria Bonada, Zoltán Csabai, Heikki Mykrä, Petr Pařil, Luka Polović, and Thibault Datry
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our study projects how climate change will affect drying of river segments and stream networks in Europe, using advanced modeling techniques to assess changes in six river networks across diverse ecoregions. We found that drying events will become more frequent, intense and start earlier or last longer, potentially turning some river sections from perennial to intermittent. The results are valuable for river ecologists in evaluating the ecological health of river ecosystem.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, and Gerrit Schoups
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4011–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Root zone storage capacity (Sumax) changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over time with different climatic conditions, and it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment.
Fabián Lema, Pablo A. Mendoza, Nicolás A. Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-221, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological droughts affect ecosystems and socioeconomic activities worldwide. Despite they are commonly described with the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), there is limited understanding of what it truly reflects in terms of water cycle processes. Here, we used state-of-the-art hydrological models in Andean basins to examine drivers of SSI fluctuations. The results highlight the importance of careful selection of indices and time scales for accurate drought characterization and monitoring.
Ryan S. Padrón, Massimiliano Zappa, Luzi Bernhard, and Konrad Bogner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2591, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We generate operational forecasts of daily maximum stream water temperature for the next month at 54 stations in Switzerland with our best performing data-driven model. The average forecast error is 0.38 °C for 1 day ahead and increases to 0.90 °C for 1 month ahead given the uncertainty in the meteorological variables influencing water temperature. Here we compare the skill of several models, how well they can forecast at new and ungauged stations, and the importance of different model inputs.
Zehua Chang, Hongkai Gao, Leilei Yong, Kang Wang, Rensheng Chen, Chuntan Han, Otgonbayar Demberel, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Shugui Hou, and Zheng Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3897–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, FLEX-Cryo, was developed that considers glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrology. We utilized it to simulate future changes in cryosphere and hydrology in the Hulu catchment. Our projections showed the two glaciers will melt completely around 2050, snow cover will reduce, and permafrost will degrade. For hydrology, runoff will decrease after the glacier has melted, and permafrost degradation will increase baseflow.
Henry M. Zimba, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Kawawa E. Banda, Petra Hulsman, Nick van de Giesen, Imasiku A. Nyambe, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3633–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The fall and flushing of new leaves in the miombo woodlands co-occur in the dry season before the commencement of seasonal rainfall. The miombo species are also said to have access to soil moisture in deep soils, including groundwater in the dry season. Satellite-based evaporation estimates, temporal trends, and magnitudes differ the most in the dry season, most likely due to inadequate understanding and representation of the highlighted miombo species attributes in simulations.
Eduardo Acuna Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2147, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven techniques have shown the potential to outperform process-based models in rainfall-runoff simulations. Hybrid models, combining both approaches, aim to enhance accuracy and maintain interpretability. Expanding the set of test cases to evaluate hybrid models under different conditions we test their generalization capabilities for extreme hydrological events.
Louise Akemi Kuana, Arlan Scortegagna Almeida, Emílio Graciliano Ferreira Mercuri, and Steffen Manfred Noe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3367–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The authors compared regionalization methods for river flow prediction in 126 catchments from the south of Brazil, a region with humid subtropical and hot temperate climate. The regionalization method based on physiographic–climatic similarity had the best performance for predicting daily and Q95 reference flow. We showed that basins without flow monitoring can have a good approximation of streamflow using machine learning and physiographic–climatic information as inputs.
Huy Dang and Yadu Pokhrel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3347–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By examining basin-wide simulations of a river regime over 83 years with and without dams, we present evidence that climate variation was a key driver of hydrologic variabilities in the Mekong River basin (MRB) over the long term; however, dams have largely altered the seasonality of the Mekong’s flow regime and annual flooding patterns in major downstream areas in recent years. These findings could help us rethink the planning of future dams and water resource management in the MRB.
Yongshin Lee, Francesca Pianosi, Andres Peñuela, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3261–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following recent advancements in weather prediction technology, we explored how seasonal weather forecasts (1 or more months ahead) could benefit practical water management in South Korea. Our findings highlight that using seasonal weather forecasts for predicting flow patterns 1 to 3 months ahead is effective, especially during dry years. This suggest that seasonal weather forecasts can be helpful in improving the management of water resources.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3161–3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding worsens due to climate change, with river dynamics being a key in local flood control. Predicting post-storm geomorphic changes is challenging. Using self-organizing maps and machine learning, this study forecasts post-storm alterations in stage–discharge relationships across 3101 US stream gages. The provided framework can aid in updating hazard assessments by identifying rivers prone to change, integrating channel adjustments into flood hazard assessment.
Yalan Song, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark, Dapeng Feng, Kathryn Lawson, Kamlesh Sawadekar, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3051–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Differentiable models (DMs) integrate neural networks and physical equations for accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge discovery. We developed an adjoint-based DM for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for hydrological modeling, reducing distorted fluxes and physical parameters from errors in models that use explicit and operation-splitting schemes. With a better numerical scheme and improved structure, the adjoint-based DM matches or surpasses long short-term memory (LSTM) performance.
Mahmut Tudaji, Yi Nan, and Fuqiang Tian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1438, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Common intuition holds that higher input data resolution leads to better results. To assess the benefits of high-resolution data, we conducted simulation experiments using data with various temporal resolutions across multiple catchments, and found that higher resolution data does not always improve model performance, challenging the necessity of pursuing such data. In catchments with small areas or significant flow variability, high-resolution data is more valuable.
Florian Willkofer, Raul R. Wood, and Ralf Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Severe flood events pose a threat to riverine areas, yet robust estimates of the dynamics of these events in the future due to climate change are rarely available. Hence, this study uses data from a regional climate model, SMILE, to drive a high-resolution hydrological model for 98 catchments of hydrological Bavaria and exploits the large database to derive robust values for the 100-year flood events. Results indicate an increase in frequency and intensity for most catchments in the future.
Maik Renner and Corina Hauffe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2849–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2849-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate and land surface changes influence the partitioning of water balance components decisively. Their impact is quantified for 71 catchments in Saxony. Germany. Distinct signatures in the joint water and energy budgets are found: (i) past forest dieback caused a decrease in and subsequent recovery of evapotranspiration in the affected regions, and (ii) the recent shift towards higher aridity imposed a large decline in runoff that has not been seen in the observation records before.
Zhen Cui, Shenglian Guo, Hua Chen, Dedi Liu, Yanlai Zhou, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2809–2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasting facilitates reliable flood forecasting and warning. This study couples the copula-based hydrologic uncertainty processor (CHUP) with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and proposes the novel CHUP-BMA method of reducing inflow forecasting uncertainty of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The CHUP-BMA avoids the normal distribution assumption in the HUP-BMA and considers the constraint of initial conditions, which can improve the deterministic and probabilistic forecast performance.
Mazda Kompanizare, Diogo Costa, Merrin L. Macrae, John W. Pomeroy, and Richard M. Petrone
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2785–2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2785-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new agricultural tile drainage module was developed in the Cold Region Hydrological Model platform. Tile flow and water levels are simulated by considering the effect of capillary fringe thickness, drainable water and seasonal regional groundwater dynamics. The model was applied to a small well-instrumented farm in southern Ontario, Canada, where there are concerns about the impacts of agricultural drainage into Lake Erie.
Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Ralf Loritz, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Nicole Bäuerle, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2705–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hybrid models promise to merge the performance of deep learning methods with the interpretability of process-based models. One hybrid approach is the dynamic parameterization of conceptual models using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We explored this method to evaluate the effect of the flexibility given by LSTMs on the process-based part.
Adam Griffin, Alison L. Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Widespread flooding is a major problem in the UK and is greatly affected by climate change and land-use change. To look at how widespread flooding changes in the future, climate model data (UKCP18) were used with a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) across the UK, and 14 400 events were identified between two time slices: 1980–2010 and 2050–2080. There was a strong increase in the number of winter events in the future time slice and in the peak return periods.
Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually
impossibleyet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. We discuss four reasons why extremely large floods carry a risk that is often larger than expected. We provide suggestions for managing the risk of megafloods by calling for a creative exploration of hazard scenarios and communicating the unknown corners of the reality of floods.
Anne-Laure Argentin, Pascal Horton, Bettina Schaefli, Jamal Shokory, Felix Pitscheider, Leona Repnik, Mattia Gianini, Simone Bizzi, Stuart Lane, and Francesco Comiti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1687, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we show that by taking the optimal parameters calibrated with a semi-lumped model for the discharge at a catchment's outlet, we can accurately simulate runoff at various points within the study area, including three nested and three neighboring catchments. In addition, we demonstrate that employing more intricate melt models, which better represent physical processes, enhances the transfer of parameters in the simulation, until an overparametrization limit is reached.
Cited articles
Amante, C. and Eakins, B. W.: ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief
Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis, US Department of
Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National
Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, National Geophysical
Data Center, Marine Geology and Geophysics Division Colorado, 2009. a
Barrell, D., Andersen, B., and Denton, G.: Glacial Geomorphology
of the Central South Island, New Zealand, GNS Science Monograph, GNS
Science, 2011. a
Barstad, I. and Grønås, S.: Dynamical structures for southwesterly
airflow over southern Norway: the role of dissipation, Tellus A, 58, 2–18,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00152.x, 2006. a
Barstad, I. and Schüller, F.: An Extension of Smith's Linear Theory of
Orographic Precipitation: Introduction of Vertical Layers*, J.
Atmos. Sci., 68, 2695–2709, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-10-05016.1, 2011. a
Benestad, R. E., Hanssen-Bauer, I., and Chen, D.: Empirical-Statistical
Downscaling, World Scientific, p. 22, https://doi.org/10.1142/6908, 2008. a
Bernhardt, M., Härer, S., Feigl, M., and Schulz, K.: Der Wert Alpiner
Forschungseinzugsgebiete im Bereich der Fernerkundung, der
Schneedeckenmodellierung und der lokalen Klimamodellierung,
Österreichische Wasser- und Abfallwirtschaft,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00506-018-0510-8, 2018. a, b, c, d
Chater, A. M. and Sturman, A. P.: Atmospheric Conditions Influencing the
Spillover of Rainfall to Lee of the Southern Alps, New Zealand,
International J. Climatol., 18, 77–92,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199801)18:1<77::AID-JOC218>3.0.CO;2-M, 1998. a
Christensen, J. H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, I.,
Jones, R., Kolli, R. K., Kwon, W.-T., Laprise, R., Rueda, M., Mearns, V.,
Menéndez, L., G, C., Räisänen, J., Rinke, A., Sarr, A., and Whetton, P.:
Regional Climate Projections, in: Climate Change 2007: The
Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z.,
Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hølm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J., Park, B., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim
reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system,
Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Di Luca, A., de Elía, R., and Laprise, R.: Challenges in the quest for
added value of regional climate dynamical downscaling, Current Climate Change Reports, 1, 10–21, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0003-9, 2015. a
Ebert, E. E.: Fuzzy verification of high-resolution gridded forecasts: a review
and proposed framework, Meteorol. Appl., 15, 51–64, 2008. a
Ebert, E. E.: Neighborhood Verification: A Strategy for Rewarding Close
Forecasts, Weather Forecast., 24, 1498–1510,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009WAF2222251.1, 2009. a
Emanuel, K. A.: Atmospheric Convection, Oxford University Press, New York, 1994. a
Engelhardt, M., Leclercq, P., Eidhammer, T., Kumar, P., Landgren, O., and
Rasmussen, R.: Meltwater runoff in a changing climate (1951–2099) at Chhota
Shigri Glacier, Western Himalaya, Northern India, Ann. Glaciol., 58,
1–12, https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2017.13, 2017. a, b, c, d
Georgakakos, K., Graham, N., Carpenter, T., and Yao, H.: Integrating
climate-hydrology forecasts and multi-objective reservoir management for
northern California, EOS T. Am. Geophys. Un., 86,
122–127, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005EO120002, 2005. a
Goodison, B., Sevruk, B., and Klemm, S.: WMO solid precipitation measurement
intercomparison: Objectives, methodology, analysis, Atmos. Depos, 179,
57–64, 1989. a
Griffiths, G. A. and McSaveney, M.: Distribution of mean annual precipitation
across some steepland regions of New Zealand, New Zeal. J.
Sci., 26, 197–209, 1983. a
Groisman, P. Y. and Legates, D. R.: Documenting and detecting long-term
precipitation trends: Where we are and what should be done, Climatic Change,
31, 601–622, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01095163, 1995. a, b
Guo, Y. and Chen, S.: Terrain and land use for the fifth-generation Penn
State/NCAR Mesoscale Modeling System (MM5): Program TERRAIN, Tech. rep.,
NCAR, https://doi.org/10.5065/D68C9T67, 1994. a
Gutmann, E. D., Rasmussen, R. M., Liu, C., Ikeda, K., Gochis, D. J., Clark,
M. P., Dudhia, J., and Thompson, G.: A Comparison of Statistical and
Dynamical Downscaling of Winter Precipitation over Complex Terrain, J.
Climate, 25, 262–281, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4109.1, 2012. a
Hill, G.: Grid telescoping in numerical weather prediction, J. Appl.
Meteorol., 7, 29–38,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1968)007<0029:GTINWP>2.0.CO;2, 1968. a
Horak, J., Hofer, M., Maussion, F., Gutmann, E., Gohm, A., and Rotach, M. W.:
Dataset – Assessing the Added Value of the Intermediate Complexity
Atmospheric Research Model (ICAR) for Precipitation in Complex Topography,
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1135131, 2019. a, b, c, d
Hoyer, S. and Hamman, J.: xarray: ND labeled Arrays and Datasets in Python,
Journal of Open Research Software, 5, p. 10, https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.148, 2017. a
Hunter, J. D.: Matplotlib: A 2D Graphics Environment, Comput. Sci.
Eng., 9, 90–95, https://doi.org/10.1109/MCSE.2007.55, 2007. a
Jarosch, A. H., Anslow, F. S., and Clarke, G. K.: High-resolution precipitation
and temperature downscaling for glacier models, Clim. Dynam., 38,
391–409, 2012. a
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year
reanalysis project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77,
437–471, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2, 1996. a
Kerr, T., Owens, I., and Henderson, R.: The precipitation distribution in the
Lake Pukaki Catchment, J. Hydrol. (New Zealand), 50, 361–382,
2011. a
Kidson, J. W.: An automated procedure for the identification of synoptic types
applied to the New Zealand region, Int. J. Climatol., 14,
711–721, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370140702, 1994a. a, b
Kidson, J. W.: Relationship of New Zealand daily and monthly weather patterns
to synoptic weather types, Int. J. Climatol., 14,
723–737, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370140703, 1994b. a, b
Kidson, J. W.: An analysis of New Zealand synoptic types and their use in
defining weather regimes, Int. J. Climatol., 20, 299–316,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(20000315)20:3<299::AID-JOC474>3.0.CO;2-B, 2000. a, b, c
Klein, W. H., Lewis, B. M., and Enger, I.: Objective Prediction of Five-Day
Mean Temperatures During Winter, J. Meteorol., 16, 672–682,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1959)016<0672:OPOFDM>2.0.CO;2, 1959. a
Maraun, D.: Bias correction, quantile mapping, and downscaling: Revisiting the
inflation issue, J. Climate, 26, 2137–2143,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00821.1, 2013. a
Maussion, F., Siller, M., Rothenberg, D., Roth, T., Dusch, M., and Landmann,
J.: fmaussion/salem: v0. 2.4, Zenodo,
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2605265, 2019. a
McKinney, W.: Data structures for statistical computing in python, in:
Proceedings of the 9th Python in Science Conference, vol. 445, 51–56,
Austin, TX, 2010. a
Mesinger, F., DiMego, G., Kalnay, E., Mitchell, K., Shafran, P. C., Ebisuzaki, W., Jović, D., Woollen, J., Rogers, E., Berbery, E. H., Ek,
M. B., Fan, Y., Grumbine, R., Higgins, W., Li, H., Lin, Y., Manikin, G., Parrish, D., and Shi, W.: North
American regional reanalysis, B. Am. Meteorol.
Soc., 87, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-3-343, 2006. a
Met Office: Cartopy: a cartographic python library with a Matplotlib
interface, Exeter, Devon, available at: http://scitools.org.uk/cartopy (last access: 18 June 2019),
2010. a
Nappo, C. J.: The Linear Theory, in: An Introduction to Atmospheric Gravity
Waves, edited by: Nappo, C. J., vol. 102 of International Geophysics,
29–56, Academic Press, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-385223-6.00002-1, 2012. a
Paeth, H., Pollinger, F., Mächel, H., Figura, C., Wahl, S., Ohlwein, C.,
and Hense, A.: An efficient model approach for very high resolution
orographic precipitation, Q. J.e Royal Meteor.
Soc., 143, 2221–2234, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3080, 2017. a
Pepin, N., Bradley, R. S., Diaz, H. F., Baraer, M., Caceres, E. B., Forsythe, N., Fowler, H., Greenwood, G., Hashmi, M. Z., Liu, X. D., Miller, J. R., Ning, L., Ohmura, A., Palazzi, E., Rangwala, I., Schöner, W., Severskiy, I., Shahgedanova, M., Wang, M. B., Williamson, S. N., and Yang, D. Q.: Elevation-dependent
warming in mountain regions of the world, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 424–430,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2563, 2015. a
Purdy, J. and Austin, G.: The role of synoptic cloud in orographic rainfall in
the Southern Alps of New Zealand, Meteorol. Appl., 10, 355–365,
https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482703001087, 2003. a
Raper, S. C. B. and Braithwaite, R. J.: Glacier volume response time and its links to climate and topography based on a conceptual model of glacier hypsometry, The Cryosphere, 3, 183–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-3-183-2009, 2009. a
Rasmussen, R., Ikeda, K., Liu, C., Gochis, D., Clark, M., Dai, A., Gutmann, E., Dudhia, J., Chen, F., Barlage, M., Yates, D., and Zhang, G.: Climate change impacts on the
water balance of the Colorado headwaters: high-resolution regional climate
model simulations, J. Hydrometeorol., 15, 1091–1116,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0118.1, 2014. a
Reinecke, P. A. and Durran, D. R.: Estimating topographic blocking using a
Froude number when the static stability is nonuniform, J.
Atmos. Sci., 65, 1035–1048, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAS2100.1, 2008. a
Rhea, J. O.: Orographic Precipitation Model for Hydrometeorological Use,
PhD thesis, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA, 1977. a
Roth, A., Hock, R., Schuler, T. V., Bieniek, P. A., Pelto, M., and Aschwanden,
A.: Modeling winter precipitation over the Juneau Icefield, Alaska, using a
linear model of orographic precipitation, Front. Earth Sci., 6, 20,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00020, 2018. a
Sarker, R.: A dynamical model of orographic rainfall, Mon. Weather
Rev., 94, 555–572, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1966)094<0555:ADMOOR>2.3.CO;2,
1966. a, b
Sawyer, J.: Gravity waves in the atmosphere as a three-dimensional problem,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 88, 412–425,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49708837805, 1962. a
Siler, N. and Durran, D.: Assessing the Impact of the Tropopause on Mountain
Waves and Orographic Precipitation Using Linear Theory and Numerical
Simulations, J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 803–820,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0200.1, 2015. a, b
Smith, R. B.: The influence of mountains on the atmosphere, Adv.
Geophys., 21, 87–230, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2687(08)60262-9, 1979. a
Smith, R. B.: Linear theory of stratified hydrostatic flow past an isolated
mountain, Tellus, 32, 348–364, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v32i4.10590, 1980. a, b
Sturman, A. and Wanner, H.: A comparative review of the weather and climate of
the Southern Alps of New Zealand and the European Alps, Mt. Res.
Dev., 21, 359–369, 2001. a
Tait, A. and Turner, R.: Generating multiyear gridded daily rainfall over New
Zealand, J. Appl. Meteorol., 44, 1315–1323,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2279.1, 2005. a, b
Tait, A., Sturman, J., and Clark, M.: An assessment of the accuracy of
interpolated daily rainfall for New Zealand, J. Hydrol. (New
Zealand), 51, 25–44, 2012. a
Theis, S. E., Hense, A., and Damrath, U.: Probabilistic precipitation forecasts
from a deterministic model: a pragmatic approach, Meteorol.
Appl., 12, 257–268, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482705001763, 2005. a
Thompson, G., Field, P. R., Rasmussen, R. M., and Hall, W. D.: Explicit
forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme.
Part II: Implementation of a new snow parameterization, Mon. Weather
Rev., 136, 5095–5115, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2387.1, 2008. a
Torma, C., Giogi, F., and Coppola, E.: Added value of regional climate
modeling over areas characterized by complex terrain—Precipitation over the
Alps, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 3957–3972,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022781, 2015. a
van der Walt, S., Colbert, S. C., and Varoquaux, G.: The NumPy Array: A
Structure for Efficient Numerical Computation, Comput. Sci.
Eng., 13, 22–30, https://doi.org/10.1109/MCSE.2011.37, 2011.
a
Weidemann, S., Sauter, T., Schneider, L., and Schneider, C.: Impact of two
conceptual precipitation downscaling schemes on mass-balance modeling of Gran
Campo Nevado ice cap, Patagonia, J. Glaciol., 59, 1106–1116,
https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG13J046, 2013. a
Wilks, D.: Chap. 5 – Frequentist Statistical Inference, in: Statistical
Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, edited by: Wilks, D. S., vol. 100 of International Geophysics, 133–186, Academic Press,
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-385022-5.00005-1, 2011a. a
Yang, D. and Ohata, T.: A bias-corrected Siberian regional precipitation
climatology, J. Hydrometeorol., 2, 122–139,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2001)002<0122:ABCSRP>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
Yang, D., Ishida, S., Goodison, B. E., and Gunther, T.: Bias correction of
daily precipitation measurements for Greenland, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 104, 6171–6181, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998JD200110, 1999. a
Short summary
This study presents an in-depth evaluation of the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model for high-resolution precipitation fields in complex topography. ICAR is evaluated with data from weather stations located in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. While ICAR underestimates rainfall amounts, it clearly improves over a coarser global model and shows potential to generate precipitation fields for long-term impact studies focused on the local impact of a changing global climate.
This study presents an in-depth evaluation of the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research...
