Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-221-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-221-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Numerical modeling and sensitivity analysis of seawater intrusion in a dual-permeability coastal karst aquifer with conduit networks
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720, USA
Bill X. Hu
Institute of Groundwater and Earth Sciences, Jinan University,
Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510632, China
Ming Ye
Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State
University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306, USA
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Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel Feldman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1771–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, 2023
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The goal of this study is to understand the uncertainties of different modeling configurations for simulating hydroclimate responses in the mountainous watershed. We run a group of climate models with various configurations and evaluate them against various reference datasets. This paper integrates a climate model and a hydrology model to have a full understanding of the atmospheric-through-bedrock hydrological processes.
Zexuan Xu, Rebecca Serata, Haruko Wainwright, Miles Denham, Sergi Molins, Hansell Gonzalez-Raymat, Konstantin Lipnikov, J. David Moulton, and Carol Eddy-Dilek
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Climate change could change the groundwater system and threaten water supply. To quantitatively evaluate its impact on water quality, numerical simulations with chemical and reaction processes are required. With the climate projection dataset, we used the newly developed hydrological and chemical model to investigate the movement of contaminants and assist the management of contamination sites.
Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel Feldman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1771–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, 2023
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The goal of this study is to understand the uncertainties of different modeling configurations for simulating hydroclimate responses in the mountainous watershed. We run a group of climate models with various configurations and evaluate them against various reference datasets. This paper integrates a climate model and a hydrology model to have a full understanding of the atmospheric-through-bedrock hydrological processes.
Zexuan Xu, Rebecca Serata, Haruko Wainwright, Miles Denham, Sergi Molins, Hansell Gonzalez-Raymat, Konstantin Lipnikov, J. David Moulton, and Carol Eddy-Dilek
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 755–773, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-755-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-755-2022, 2022
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Climate change could change the groundwater system and threaten water supply. To quantitatively evaluate its impact on water quality, numerical simulations with chemical and reaction processes are required. With the climate projection dataset, we used the newly developed hydrological and chemical model to investigate the movement of contaminants and assist the management of contamination sites.
Chuan-An Xia, Xiaodong Luo, Bill X. Hu, Monica Riva, and Alberto Guadagnini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1689–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1689-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1689-2021, 2021
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Our study shows that (i) monitoring wells installed with packers provide the (overall) best conductivity estimates; (ii) conductivity estimates anchored on information from partially and fully screened wells are of similar quality; (iii) inflation of the measurement-error covariance matrix can improve conductivity estimates when a simplified flow model is adopted; and (iv) when compared to the MC-based EnKF, the MEs-based EnKF can efficiently and accurately estimate conductivity and head fields.
Haifan Liu, Heng Dai, Jie Niu, Bill X. Hu, Dongwei Gui, Han Qiu, Ming Ye, Xingyuan Chen, Chuanhao Wu, Jin Zhang, and William Riley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4971–4996, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4971-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4971-2020, 2020
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It is still challenging to apply the quantitative and comprehensive global sensitivity analysis method to complex large-scale process-based hydrological models because of variant uncertainty sources and high computational cost. This work developed a new tool and demonstrate its implementation to a pilot example for comprehensive global sensitivity analysis of large-scale hydrological modelling. This method is mathematically rigorous and can be applied to other large-scale hydrological models.
Wei Mao, Yan Zhu, Heng Dai, Ming Ye, Jinzhong Yang, and Jingwei Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3481–3502, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3481-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3481-2019, 2019
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A new quasi-3-D model was developed by coupling a soil water balance model with MODFLOW iteratively for regional-scale water flow modeling. The model was tested to be effective and efficient with well-maintained mass balance. A modeling framework was developed to organize the coupling scheme and to handle the pre- and post-processing information. The model is then used to evaluate groundwater recharge in a real-world application, which shows the model practicability in regional-scale problems.
Haifan Liu, Heng Dai, Jie Niu, Bill X. Hu, Han Qiu, Dongwei Gui, Ming Ye, Xingyuan Chen, Chuanhao Wu, Jin Zhang, and William Riley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-246, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-246, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Guoxiao Wei, Xiaoying Zhang, Ming Ye, Ning Yue, and Fei Kan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2877–2895, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2877-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2877-2019, 2019
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Accurately evaluating evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical challenge in improving hydrological process modeling. Here we evaluated four ET models (PM, SW, PT–FC, and AA) under the Bayesian framework. Our results reveal that the SW model has the best performance. This is in part because the SW model captures the main physical mechanism in ET; the other part is that the key parameters, such as the extinction factor, could be well constrained with observation data.
Ahmed S. Elshall, Ming Ye, Guo-Yue Niu, and Greg A. Barron-Gafford
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2009–2032, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2009-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2009-2019, 2019
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The assumptions that the residuals are independent, identically distributed, and have constant variance tend to simplify the underlying mathematics of data models for Bayesian inference. We relax these three assumptions step-wise, resulting in eight data models. Using three mechanistic soil respiration models with different levels of model discrepancy, we discuss the impacts of data models on parameter estimation and predictive performance, and provide recommendations for data model selection.
Guoping Lu and Bill X. Hu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-624, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-624, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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It has been postulated that deep faults are well channeled and networked in the crust. The Xinzhou geothermal field presents a deep fault zone with dome-shaped surface of equilibrium hydraulic heads. Thermal fluid flows are strongly regulated by gravity, buoyancy and viscosity as well. This paper showed that the deep fault is as permeable as clean sands and lower end of gravels. Fluid-flowing faults implicate propagation of pressure/porosity waves and lower limit of groundwater circulations.
Dan Yu, Ping Xie, Xiaohua Dong, Xiaonong Hu, Ji Liu, Yinghai Li, Tao Peng, Haibo Ma, Kai Wang, and Shijin Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5001–5019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5001-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5001-2018, 2018
Anthony P. Walker, Ming Ye, Dan Lu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Lianhong Gu, Belinda E. Medlyn, Alistair Rogers, and Shawn P. Serbin
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3159–3185, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3159-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3159-2018, 2018
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Large uncertainty is inherent in model predictions due to imperfect knowledge of how to describe the processes that a model is intended to represent. Yet methods to quantify and evaluate this model hypothesis uncertainty are limited. To address this, the multi-assumption architecture and testbed (MAAT) automates the generation of all possible models by combining multiple representations of multiple processes. MAAT provides a formal framework for quantification of model hypothesis uncertainty.
Peng-Fei Han, Xu-Sheng Wang, Xiaomei Jin, and Bill X. Hu
Proc. IAHS, 379, 433–442, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-433-2018, 2018
Chuanhao Wu, Bill X. Hu, Guoru Huang, Peng Wang, and Kai Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1971–1991, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1971-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1971-2018, 2018
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China has suffered some of the effects of global warming, and one of the potential implications of climate warming is the alteration of the temporal–spatial patterns of water resources. In this paper, the Budyko-based elasticity method was used to investigate the responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China at both grid and catchment scales. The results help to better understand the hydrological effects of climate change and adapt to a changing environment.
Ming Wu, Jianfeng Wu, Jichun Wu, and Bill X. Hu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1001–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1001-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1001-2018, 2018
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Fractal models of regular triangle arrangement (RTA) and square pitch arrangement (SPA) are developed in this study. Results suggest RTA can cause more groundwater contamination and make remediation more difficult. In contrast, the cleanup of contaminants in aquifers with SPA is easier. This study demonstrates how microscale arrangements control contaminant migration and remediation, which is helpful in designing successful remediation schemes for subsurface contamination.
Xiujie Wu, Xu-Sheng Wang, Yang Wang, and Bill X. Hu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4419–4431, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4419-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4419-2017, 2017
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It is critical to identify the origins of water in arid and semiarid regions for management and protection of the water resources. The D, 18O, 3H and 14C in water samples from the Badain Jaran Desert, China, were analyzed. The results show that groundwater supplies the lakes and originates from local precipitation and adjacent mountains. Negative d-excess values of water in the area were the result of evaporation. The 14C ages do not represent the residence time of local groundwater.
Chuanhao Wu, Pat J.-F. Yeh, Kai Xu, Bill X. Hu, Guoru Huang, and Peng Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-441, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-441, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
W. Tian, X. Li, G.-D. Cheng, X.-S. Wang, and B. X. Hu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4707–4723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4707-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4707-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Subject: Groundwater hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
Data-driven estimates for the geostatistical characterization of subsurface hydraulic properties
Hierarchical sensitivity analysis for a large-scale process-based hydrological model applied to an Amazonian watershed
Interpretation of multi-scale permeability data through an information theory perspective
Spatially distributed sensitivity of simulated global groundwater heads and flows to hydraulic conductivity, groundwater recharge, and surface water body parameterization
Multi-model approach to quantify groundwater-level prediction uncertainty using an ensemble of global climate models and multiple abstraction scenarios
Influence of input and parameter uncertainty on the prediction of catchment-scale groundwater travel time distributions
On the efficiency of the hybrid and the exact second-order sampling formulations of the EnKF: a reality-inspired 3-D test case for estimating biodegradation rates of chlorinated hydrocarbons at the port of Rotterdam
Testing alternative uses of electromagnetic data to reduce the prediction error of groundwater models
Groundwater flow processes and mixing in active volcanic systems: the case of Guadalajara (Mexico)
Analyses of uncertainties and scaling of groundwater level fluctuations
Analyzing the effects of geological and parameter uncertainty on prediction of groundwater head and travel time
Interpolation of groundwater quality parameters with some values below the detection limit
An approach to identify urban groundwater recharge
Assessment of conceptual model uncertainty for the regional aquifer Pampa del Tamarugal – North Chile
Falk Heße, Sebastian Müller, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 357–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-357-2024, 2024
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In this study, we have presented two different advances for the field of subsurface geostatistics. First, we present data of variogram functions from a variety of different locations around the world. Second, we present a series of geostatistical analyses aimed at examining some of the statistical properties of such variogram functions and their relationship to a number of widely used variogram model functions.
Haifan Liu, Heng Dai, Jie Niu, Bill X. Hu, Dongwei Gui, Han Qiu, Ming Ye, Xingyuan Chen, Chuanhao Wu, Jin Zhang, and William Riley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4971–4996, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4971-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4971-2020, 2020
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It is still challenging to apply the quantitative and comprehensive global sensitivity analysis method to complex large-scale process-based hydrological models because of variant uncertainty sources and high computational cost. This work developed a new tool and demonstrate its implementation to a pilot example for comprehensive global sensitivity analysis of large-scale hydrological modelling. This method is mathematically rigorous and can be applied to other large-scale hydrological models.
Aronne Dell'Oca, Alberto Guadagnini, and Monica Riva
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3097–3109, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3097-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3097-2020, 2020
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Permeability of natural systems exhibits heterogeneous spatial variations linked with the size of the measurement support scale. As the latter becomes coarser, the system appearance is less heterogeneous. As such, sets of permeability data associated with differing support scales provide diverse amounts of information. In this contribution, we leverage information theory to quantify the information content of gas permeability datasets collected with four diverse measurement support scales.
Robert Reinecke, Laura Foglia, Steffen Mehl, Jonathan D. Herman, Alexander Wachholz, Tim Trautmann, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4561–4582, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4561-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4561-2019, 2019
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Recently, the first global groundwater models were developed to better understand surface-water–groundwater interactions and human water use impacts. However, the reliability of model outputs is limited by a lack of data as well as model assumptions required due to the necessarily coarse spatial resolution. In this study we present the first global maps of model sensitivity according to their parameterization and build a foundation to improve datasets, model design, and model understanding.
Syed M. Touhidul Mustafa, M. Moudud Hasan, Ajoy Kumar Saha, Rahena Parvin Rannu, Els Van Uytven, Patrick Willems, and Marijke Huysmans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2279–2303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2279-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2279-2019, 2019
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This study evaluates the effect of conceptual hydro(geo)logical model (CHM) structure, climate change and groundwater abstraction on future groundwater-level prediction uncertainty. If the current groundwater abstraction trend continues, groundwater level is predicted to decline quickly. Groundwater abstraction in NW Bangladesh should decrease by 60 % to ensure sustainable use. Abstraction scenarios are the dominant uncertainty source, followed by CHM uncertainty and climate model uncertainty.
Miao Jing, Falk Heße, Rohini Kumar, Olaf Kolditz, Thomas Kalbacher, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 171–190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-171-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-171-2019, 2019
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We evaluated the uncertainty propagation from the inputs (forcings) and parameters to the predictions of groundwater travel time distributions (TTDs) using a fully distributed numerical model (mHM-OGS) and the StorAge Selection (SAS) function. Through detailed numerical and analytical investigations, we emphasize the key role of recharge estimation in the reliable predictions of TTDs and the good interpretability of the SAS function.
Mohamad E. Gharamti, Johan Valstar, Gijs Janssen, Annemieke Marsman, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4561–4583, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4561-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4561-2016, 2016
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The paper addresses the issue of sampling errors when using the ensemble Kalman filter, in particular its hybrid and second-order formulations. The presented work is aimed at estimating concentration and biodegradation rates of subsurface contaminants at the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands. Overall, we found that accounting for both forecast and observation sampling errors in the joint data assimilation system helps recover more accurate state and parameter estimates.
Nikolaj Kruse Christensen, Steen Christensen, and Ty Paul A. Ferre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1925–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1925-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1925-2016, 2016
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Our primary objective in this study is to provide a virtual environment that allows users to determine the value of geophysical data and, furthermore, to investigate how best to use those data to develop groundwater models and to reduce their prediction errors. When this has been carried through for alternative data sampling, parameterization and inversion approaches, the best alternative can be chosen by comparison of prediction results between the alternatives.
A. Hernández-Antonio, J. Mahlknecht, C. Tamez-Meléndez, J. Ramos-Leal, A. Ramírez-Orozco, R. Parra, N. Ornelas-Soto, and C. J. Eastoe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3937–3950, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3937-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3937-2015, 2015
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A conceptual model of groundwater flow processes and mixing was developed using a combination of hydrogeochemistry, isotopes and multivariate analysis. The implementation to the case of Guadalajara showed that groundwater was classified into four groups: cold groundwater, hydrothermal water, polluted groundwater and mixed groundwater. A multivariate mixing model was used to calculate the proportion of different fluids in sampled well water. The result helps authorities in decision making.
X. Y. Liang and Y.-K. Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2971–2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2971-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2971-2015, 2015
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The error or uncertainty in head, obtained with an analytical or numerical solution, at an early time is mainly caused by the random initial condition. The error reduces with time, later reaching a constant error. The constant error at a later time is mainly due to the effects of the uncertain source/sink. The error caused by the uncertain boundary is limited to a narrow zone. Temporal scaling of head exists in most parts of a low permeable aquifer, mainly caused by recharge fluctuation.
X. He, T. O. Sonnenborg, F. Jørgensen, A.-S. Høyer, R. R. Møller, and K. H. Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3245–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3245-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3245-2013, 2013
A. Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2763–2775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2763-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2763-2011, 2011
E. Vázquez-Suñé, J. Carrera, I. Tubau, X. Sánchez-Vila, and A. Soler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2085–2097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2085-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2085-2010, 2010
R. Rojas, O. Batelaan, L. Feyen, and A. Dassargues
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 171–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-171-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-171-2010, 2010
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Short summary
This study helps hydrologists better understand the parameters in modeling seawater intrusion in a coastal karst aquifer. Local and global sensitivity studies are conducted to evaluate a density-dependent numerical model of seawater intrusion. The sensitivity analysis indicates that karst features are critical for seawater intrusion modeling, and the evaluation of hydraulic conductivity is biased in continuum SEAWAT model. Dispervisity is no longer important in the advection-dominated aquifer.
This study helps hydrologists better understand the parameters in modeling seawater intrusion in...