Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK

Harrigan, Shaun; Prudhomme, Christel; Parry, Simon; Smith, Katie; Tanguy, Maliko

doi:10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018

Articles | Volume 22, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 3

Research article

|

29 Mar 2018

Research article |

| 29 Mar 2018

Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK

Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Simon Parry, Katie Smith, and Maliko Tanguy

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Total article views: 7,665 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

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Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
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Oct 2017	46	23	0	69
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Dec 2017	27	13	0	40
Jan 2018	39	25	0	64
Feb 2018	56	38	5	99
Mar 2018	172	62	3	237
Apr 2018	219	74	5	298
May 2018	46	31	1	78
Jun 2018	30	27	0	57
Jul 2018	58	70	1	129
Aug 2018	65	48	1	114
Sep 2018	33	45	1	79
Oct 2018	33	39	3	75
Nov 2018	27	34	2	63
Dec 2018	23	24	0	47
Jan 2019	39	32	0	71
Feb 2019	35	30	0	65
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Apr 2019	22	39	0	61
May 2019	38	33	0	71
Jun 2019	62	24	0	86
Jul 2019	42	33	1	76
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Oct 2019	39	28	3	70
Nov 2019	38	29	0	67
Dec 2019	26	26	3	55
Jan 2020	33	19	2	54
Feb 2020	27	20	1	48
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Jun 2021	30	15	0	45
Jul 2021	23	22	0	45
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Jan 2022	38	27	1	66
Feb 2022	31	19	1	51
Mar 2022	43	9	1	53
Apr 2022	62	11	1	74
May 2022	33	17	1	51
Jun 2022	39	18	1	58
Jul 2022	49	6	0	55
Aug 2022	144	14	0	158
Sep 2022	44	21	2	67
Oct 2022	42	21	3	66
Nov 2022	61	29	0	90
Dec 2022	58	19	1	78
Jan 2023	61	26	0	87
Feb 2023	67	21	0	88
Mar 2023	123	45	2	170
Apr 2023	55	36	4	95
May 2023	30	15	0	45
Jun 2023	36	13	0	49
Jul 2023	41	25	5	71
Aug 2023	42	22	2	66
Sep 2023	23	16	1	40
Oct 2023	54	22	2	78
Nov 2023	21	9	0	30
Dec 2023	36	39	1	76
Jan 2024	48	15	2	65
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Mar 2024	76	25	2	103
Apr 2024	58	22	3	83
May 2024	39	27	7	73
Jun 2024	80	18	2	100
Jul 2024	72	19	4	95
Aug 2024	71	19	7	97
Sep 2024	34	16	0	50
Oct 2024	47	18	1	66
Nov 2024	28	12	1	41
Dec 2024	23	13	2	38
Jan 2025	31	13	0	44
Feb 2025	44	12	1	57
Mar 2025	39	12	2	53
Apr 2025	35	21	4	60
May 2025	49	9	0	58
Jun 2025	45	20	0	65
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Aug 2025	69	17	4	90
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Oct 2025	33	21	1	55
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Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 28 Jul 2017)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jul 2017	138	37	3	178
Aug 2017	244	47	1	292
Sep 2017	48	20	0	68
Oct 2017	46	23	0	69
Nov 2017	33	17	1	51
Dec 2017	27	13	0	40
Jan 2018	39	25	0	64
Feb 2018	56	38	5	99
Mar 2018	172	62	3	237
Apr 2018	219	74	5	298
May 2018	46	31	1	78
Jun 2018	30	27	0	57
Jul 2018	58	70	1	129
Aug 2018	65	48	1	114
Sep 2018	33	45	1	79
Oct 2018	33	39	3	75
Nov 2018	27	34	2	63
Dec 2018	23	24	0	47
Jan 2019	39	32	0	71
Feb 2019	35	30	0	65
Mar 2019	32	47	0	79
Apr 2019	22	39	0	61
May 2019	38	33	0	71
Jun 2019	62	24	0	86
Jul 2019	42	33	1	76
Aug 2019	27	26	1	54
Sep 2019	32	29	0	61
Oct 2019	39	28	3	70
Nov 2019	38	29	0	67
Dec 2019	26	26	3	55
Jan 2020	33	19	2	54
Feb 2020	27	20	1	48
Mar 2020	33	20	0	53
Apr 2020	40	32	0	72
May 2020	36	21	0	57
Jun 2020	28	31	0	59
Jul 2020	45	40	2	87
Aug 2020	20	22	3	45
Sep 2020	32	33	0	65
Oct 2020	27	16	2	45
Nov 2020	42	30	0	72
Dec 2020	38	33	0	71
Jan 2021	47	31	0	78
Feb 2021	38	24	0	62
Mar 2021	41	28	0	69
Apr 2021	33	27	0	60
May 2021	35	35	0	70
Jun 2021	30	15	0	45
Jul 2021	23	22	0	45
Aug 2021	28	15	0	43
Sep 2021	36	21	1	58
Oct 2021	31	44	0	75
Nov 2021	25	35	0	60
Dec 2021	41	16	0	57
Jan 2022	38	27	1	66
Feb 2022	31	19	1	51
Mar 2022	43	9	1	53
Apr 2022	62	11	1	74
May 2022	33	17	1	51
Jun 2022	39	18	1	58
Jul 2022	49	6	0	55
Aug 2022	144	14	0	158
Sep 2022	44	21	2	67
Oct 2022	42	21	3	66
Nov 2022	61	29	0	90
Dec 2022	58	19	1	78
Jan 2023	61	26	0	87
Feb 2023	67	21	0	88
Mar 2023	123	45	2	170
Apr 2023	55	36	4	95
May 2023	30	15	0	45
Jun 2023	36	13	0	49
Jul 2023	41	25	5	71
Aug 2023	42	22	2	66
Sep 2023	23	16	1	40
Oct 2023	54	22	2	78
Nov 2023	21	9	0	30
Dec 2023	36	39	1	76
Jan 2024	48	15	2	65
Feb 2024	38	24	2	64
Mar 2024	76	25	2	103
Apr 2024	58	22	3	83
May 2024	39	27	7	73
Jun 2024	80	18	2	100
Jul 2024	72	19	4	95
Aug 2024	71	19	7	97
Sep 2024	34	16	0	50
Oct 2024	47	18	1	66
Nov 2024	28	12	1	41
Dec 2024	23	13	2	38
Jan 2025	31	13	0	44
Feb 2025	44	12	1	57
Mar 2025	39	12	2	53
Apr 2025	35	21	4	60
May 2025	49	9	0	58
Jun 2025	45	20	0	65
Jul 2025	51	23	3	77
Aug 2025	69	17	4	90
Sep 2025	85	17	2	104
Oct 2025	33	21	1	55
Nov 2025	34	24	3	61

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Total article views: 7,665 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 7,174 with geography defined and 491 with unknown origin.

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1

1

Latest update: 25 Nov 2025

Short summary

We benchmarked when and where ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is skilful in the UK across a diverse set of 314 catchments. We found ESP was skilful in the majority of catchments across all lead times up to a year ahead, but the degree of skill was strongly conditional on lead time, forecast initialization month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. Results have practical implications for current operational use of the ESP method in the UK.


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