Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK

Harrigan, Shaun; Prudhomme, Christel; Parry, Simon; Smith, Katie; Tanguy, Maliko

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018

Articles | Volume 22, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 3

Research article

|

29 Mar 2018

Research article |

| 29 Mar 2018

Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK

Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Simon Parry, Katie Smith, and Maliko Tanguy

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Final revised paper (published on 29 Mar 2018)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 28 Jul 2017)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

- Printer-friendly version

- Supplement

RC1: 'Reviewer comments', Anonymous Referee #1, 29 Aug 2017
- AC1: 'Response to R#1', Shaun Harrigan, 28 Oct 2017
RC2: 'Review of hess-2017-449', Guillaume Thirel, 30 Aug 2017
- AC2: 'Response to R#2', Shaun Harrigan, 28 Oct 2017
RC3: 'Comment on “Benchmarking Ensemble Streamflow Prediction skill in the UK” by Shaun Harrigan et al.', Anonymous Referee #3, 30 Aug 2017
- AC3: 'Response to R#3', Shaun Harrigan, 28 Oct 2017

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (29 Oct 2017) by Q.J. Wang

AR by Shaun Harrigan on behalf of the Authors (08 Dec 2017) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (13 Dec 2017) by Q.J. Wang

RR by Guillaume Thirel (05 Jan 2018)

RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (14 Jan 2018)

ED: Publish as is (29 Jan 2018) by Q.J. Wang

AR by Shaun Harrigan on behalf of the Authors (30 Jan 2018)

Short summary

We benchmarked when and where ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is skilful in the UK across a diverse set of 314 catchments. We found ESP was skilful in the majority of catchments across all lead times up to a year ahead, but the degree of skill was strongly conditional on lead time, forecast initialization month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. Results have practical implications for current operational use of the ESP method in the UK.